UFC 117

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Did I miss something? Is someone calling for me to be banned?

No

We're just messing with you

[zY|]

Re: UFC 117

Just wait until you meet zY...

I'm nice to everyone that doesn't have gay sig gifs.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Whats SBS's user name at zewkey?

SBjj what boxing forums you post at? I've never been in any boxing forums I've always just went off my own capping

Same username. And I post on Zewkey, under the boxing forum.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

Just wait until you meet zY...

I'm nice to everyone that doesn't have gay sig gifs.

answer me this though, why does your handle read zY when your name's pussy?

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Luke, Graham fight writer(online) is a very good read. Bad left hook is a pretty good website. I read a ton of shit, but pretty much ended on the side I believe. The foreman-cotto fight was an exception, the overwhelming # of people i respect that were picking Foremn just boggled my mind. So I ended up just not betting it at all.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

Can anyone tell me wtf is going on? I don't understand what you guys are saying about sbjj

http://investwithsports.com/phpBB2/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=2889

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Luke, Graham fight writer(online) is a very good read. Bad left hook is a pretty good website. I read a ton of shit, but pretty much ended on the side I believe. The foreman-cotto fight was an exception, the overwhelming # of people i respect that were picking Foremn just boggled my mind. So I ended up just not betting it at all.

Graham is a ok writer .I know alot peope hate Kevin lole I think he knows alot about boxing,more than he does about MMA.

I know what you mean about Foreman .I thought for sure Cotto was the play but with everyone saying Foreman I ended up putting a min. bet on Cotto,much less than I wanted to

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

You honestly believe +450=30% chance of winning? And you use this knowledge to bet? As for your side bet of $1000.00, that is just a silly thing to say over the internet. How about 100K? Give me a break. How about I copy my boxing picks from another site, and show you where I am hitting at close to 75 % and hitting +300 dogs.

Just to let you know, I have been making a living betting boxing for over a decade. Fairly new to MMA, so am still learning. But anyone who says they CAN MAKE a living betting big favorites is nothing more than a liar. And I have met plenty of them, they all eventually go bust. And I have been betting boxing since I was 16, and am now 37. I have seen these guys come and go. I doubt MMA is that much different.

With all the excitment, I missed your response.

I didn't say I think +450 = 30%. I know how to convert a line to its implied probability. I was saying the bet at +300 (25%) is not a good bet- i just said I don't think he has a 30% chance... but I consider him him @ +450 (18%)... I don't really think that any legitimate fighter should be less than 20%. Which is why I never bet over -400 favorites.

As for winning on favorites, I have posted my year to date picks on this site. I have only been betting on MMA for three years, but I maybe bet 5 or 6 dogs a year. All my bets are favorites, and I have consistently beat the line. I happen to be on my worst streak ever (by far) but I trust my edge enough to know that I will bounce back.

As for the side bet, I wasn't being literal. I am 100% serious though that I firmly believe I can beat the line at any level (below -600, because there arent enough fights steeper than that).

I (used to) follow a vert strict formula for betting mma favorites. I have gotten away from it a little, but I think you can pick favorites that are "more sure" than the line indicates by narrowing down the fights to the ones where you know where the fight will take place (for example, Askren/Hornbuckle tonight).

But all of that aside, I fail to see how there is some mathmatical edge in betting favorites. Value is the question. It can be found in favorites and underdogs. I only bet underdogs that I actually think are going to win the fight (my line has to be at least even). Then when the line is out, if my line is set further out, I bet. That is all there is to value. The only question is whether you can spot it or not. It does not make a lick of difference whether it is on the favorite or the dog.

The only issue is money management. If you are going to be betting favorites, you have to manage your bankroll very strictly. I have been doing quite well for the few years I have been doing this.

I have no way of verifying any of this, any more than you can verify your claims (except for my 9 month old blog which tracks my plays and breakdowns, from which about 70% of the poster's here migrated).

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

what are you talking about? you post there ,you act like you've never been there before? I'm confused

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

what are you talking about? you post there ,you act like you've never been there before? I'm confused

Thought the same thing.

Wait, are you him?

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

what are you talking about? you post there ,you act like you've never been there before? I'm confused

Never said I have never been to Zewkey. I think you are confusing Zewkey with Lagasse.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Jesus Christ guys. I have never been to the sportsbook @ Pallazzo named Laggasse's or whatever. I am a member of Zewkey. Never posted anything to the contrary. i know SBS from Zewkey.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

Whats SBS's user name at zewkey?

SBjj what boxing forums you post at? I've never been in any boxing forums I've always just went off my own capping

Same username. And I post on Zewkey, under the boxing forum.

I am totally confused now. SBS liar.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

I think Luke and I were surprised at your tone about the Zewkey FORUM. You just said you went to the Zewkey FORUM and were impressed. And then you said you post there all the time. But the way thay you said you were impressed made it sound like it was was your first time seeing it.