UFC 117

[SPX]

Re: UFC 117

Worth a bet at the -170 it opened at or the -280 its at now?

Definitely not at -280. The fight's probably just a no bet for me at this point. I'm thinking a 70% chance for Saunders, because I think his striking is all-around superior, but his takedown defense isn't great and Hallman is a pretty good wrestler, even now.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 117

Favorites have been getting wrecked lately. I have had to change my betting strategy. I don't think MMA is changing, I think the public is betting more favorites. Anymore, even close fights are -200. I have been betting WAY more dogs.

Yeah, I have been noticing this, and it's a big reason why I've been betting more dogs for the last while now. I find betting dogs is less stressful and less devastating when you lose a bet.

I thought you were going back to your old style though. . .?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

I thought you were going back to your old style though. . .?

I am. I have. I am picking fights based on the same criteria, but I am not betting anything over -250 and I am betting dogs that I feel are at least 50% to win. But I am narrowing down my bets the way I used to, where I know what the fight is about, and I know where the battle will take place. Basically, I am only betting fights where at least one guy wants to make it a grappling match. All the better if they both want to grapple.

But my philosophy on lines has changed.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Dustin Hazelett (-155)
Rick Story (+125)

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

Those are good odds on Dustin, IMO. If he hadn't been out for so long, I would probably jump

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

Until I see that he won't go all stupid cartwheel kick crazy again I'm staying as far away from Hazelett as possible.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

Until I see that he won't go all stupid cartwheel kick crazy again I'm staying as far away from Hazelett as possible.

LOL

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 117

I like Hazelett in this fight quite a bit.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 117

Thoughts on Boetsch/Silva? Boetsch is a pretty aggressive brawler, and seems to connect against everyone he fights. His loss against Hamill, wasn't due to striking, it was due to him being gassed from Hamill's wrestling, then failing a takedown and getting pounded on. Then his lost to Brilz was because of Brilz's wrestling in rounds 2 and 3, but Boetsch won round 1 on the feet. It seems like if Boetsch is on the bad end of a grappling match, he gasses...but Boetsch/Silva should all be on the feet. I can see Boetsch clipping Silva (or maybe even using his wrestling, he is a wrestler). I think I will be taking Boetsch @+300

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

^^ I think Silva is going to beat him silly. Silva has the same issue regardless of who he faces. He has a brawling style which means he could get clipped at any time. But, he is near the top of that division IMO and will Boetch is a mid tier guy. Silva hits harder, faster, and has better gas. I am not even sure why this fight is happening TBH. Did someone drop out on Silva? Because it does not make sense.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 117

^^ I think Silva is going to beat him silly. Silva has the same issue regardless of who he faces. He has a brawling style which means he could get clipped at any time. But, he is near the top of that division IMO and will Boetch is a mid tier guy. Silva hits harder, faster, and has better gas. I am not even sure why this fight is happening TBH. Did someone drop out on Silva? Because it does not make sense.

Well Silva lost to Rashad, so down the ladder he goes. And Boetsch is coming on off of a 3-fight win streak.

I get what you're saying, though. It especially seems odd since Boetsch has been out of the UFC and this is his first fight back. It does look like they just needed to find an opponent for Silva.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

This fight is nowhere near even. Thiago should take this and alot of it is due to his Muay Thai. He can always clinch and up and work Boetch's body with knees or even his head. Boetch may get the takedown a few times but I doubt he'll be able to do anything with it. Even with a back injury Thiago was able to scramble up on Rashad with ease. I see it about 75% for Thiago. That said the line is a little too steep for Me.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

Yeah, I am not worried about Boetch's wrestling at all. Thiago has pretty good sweeps and he had no trouble getting up against Rashad, who is way more relentless with the takedowns than Boetch will be. This fight is going to be taking place standing I think.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Sounds like a couple of you guys mat be talking yourselfs into a bet on Thiago. I in no way believe that this is a pick em. But as bettors we have to take the line into consideration at all times, and there is no way that Thiago should be this high against a tough guy who hits hard.

Thiagos best performance IMO was his losing effort against Rashad, other than that he proved that he could get caught and stunned by inferior fighters. He has been hurt in some fight(but always came back) to win. But at the current line, I just think Silva is a dangerous bet.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

No way I would bet Thiago.

But I put Boetch @ about 25%, so +300 is right about where it should be.

Its a no bet for me, but Boetch is closer to having value than Thiago.