UFC 117

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 117

Luke, where do you see the line come fight time?

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Sonnen (R-Or) is 33. Silva is 35. Silva has always used footwork and sprawls to stop the TD, a huge part of that is quickness/speed. I just think Sonnen (R-Or) is too fast for Silva. I see Silva fighting off his back for 2 round and then gassing hard.

3u Sonnen (R-Or)

lol at Sonnen being to fast for Silva and Silva gassing.

I hope you didnt read Silva will gas the same place people said Carwin's best round is his 5th

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

I hope you didnt read Silva will gas the same place people said Carwin's best round is his 5th

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

That was not spaz money. Are you kidding me, did you watch the fight. I thought Brock would win, but that Carwin money was not dumb money, he damn near won the fight. And being able to bet a dog @ +150 is a world away from being able to bet a dog @ +400. Show me the spaz that will bet large money on a +400 dog...the guy does not exist. But I could show you a graveyard of spazes that chased heavy faves after already losing on heavy faves before that.

I see guys in Vegas all the time throwing 5000.00 grand on a -500 fave to win a grand. And they look like their rent money is on the line. That is why fighters like GSP and Fedor end up @ -800 or @ -1000 come fight time in Vegas.

Well I win anyway because I've been watchng "spaz money" come in on Sonnen (R-Or) for the last 4 months .


Sonnen (R-Or) at +500 would have value imo but +300 has zero value .Just my opinion. I'm betting Silva Saturday

Really does not take a whole lot of money to move a newly opened offshore line. I guess my bet @ +400 has maybe a tiny bit of value in your eyes.

I can most certainly appreciate the opinion that Silva is approaching value. I would most likely hedge if he somehow dropped to the mid 200 range.

Does that spaz money coming in on Sonnen turn into smart money if he wins?

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Luke, where do you see the line come fight time?

I'm really not sure man. They will be people fight night betting Silva because they dont know who Sonnen is but I dont know if it'll be enough to push the line up

its been creeping down the last week

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

I can most certainly appreciate the opinion that Silva is approaching value. I would most likely hedge if he somehow dropped to the mid 200 range.

Does that spaz money coming in on Sonnen (R-Or) turn into smart money if he wins?

I am not going to bet it now... but if he went to -250 I would a max bet.

I think -400/+400 is about right. Silva is approaching value (has more value that Sonnen at this point), but I really never think anyone is more than 80-85%...

@ +400 Sonnen would be on the verge of value too... I really think this whole precise percentages game is sort of silly though. I do not think Sonnen will win, I give him about a 20% chance. Even if the line gives him only a 15% chance, I am not going to bet that. But that's the way I do things... if you think you can pin it down to 5 or 10 percentages, knock yourself out. I personally think in 1/5ths:

0-20%- he is going to lose and I would be kind of surprised if he won. This is where I put dogs like Wallace on this card.
21-49%- he could totally win, but he probably won't. This is probably where most guys would put Munoz against Okami.
50-60%- he has some advantages, he should win, but there is definitely a possibility he could lose. This is where I put fights like Ellenberger/Howard
61-80%- He should win, he has every advantage and the other guy has to find a way to make something happen. This is my ideal betting range. For this card, I put Hendricks/Brenneman here. BJ/Edgar is here ...
80-100%- barring some freak occurence, he should win.

That is about as close as I feel I can nail it down... for me Sonnen is teetering on that 20-25% range. It is not quite unwinnable, but it would be pretty surprising. I could see why someone would bet him though. @ +400 Sonnen probably has value... but it is right on the cusp for me.

Sometimes things are crazy out of whack in a good way... the best bet I think I made in the last year was Koscheck over Anthony Johnson @ +105. I was like WTF? Kos should be -220. Usually they are out of whack in a bad way, like a favorite is slightly more of a favorite than he should be... like Hendricks @ -450... he should only be about -250 -300 at max IMO, so Brenneman has a little value IMO... but not enough for me to bet. That is what usually happens.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 117

this is his lifetime achievement right in front of him... On the other hand this is just another fight and title defense to Anderson.

The thing is, you could say this about Silva's last 4 challenges as well. I recall Anderson talking about how he was tired of fighting and wanted to retire a couple years ago. One of the things I find so amusing about him is that he looks like he hasn't given a shit for a while now but still beats all his opponents pretty easily.

I'm still on Sonnen though. I'm not too concerned by the performance of either guy against Maia. Maia is just a brutal matchup for Sonnen; I think he'd definitely beat him again if they fought. As for Anderson, he runs away from Maia for two rounds and now everyone thinks he has great takedown defense? And let's not forget that despite having solid clinch takedowns, Maia's shot is not very good.

I also think people are overestimating the importance of it being a 5 round fight. People didn't think King Mo could wrestlerape Mousasi for 5 rounds either, but the extra two rounds were no problem. (Mousasi may have gassed, but so did Mo). It's pretty rare for the last two rounds of a fight to have a different character than the opening three. If Sonnen wins the first three rounds, I would take him to win the fight all the way down to -400 at least. If anything, instead of favoring "a finisher", I'd say the uncertainty of fighters' cardio in the late rounds is likely, from a bettor's perspective, to favor the underdog.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

this is his lifetime achievement right in front of him... On the other hand this is just another fight and title defense to Anderson.

The thing is, you could say this about Silva's last 4 challenges as well. I recall Anderson talking about how he was tired of fighting and wanted to retire a couple years ago. One of the things I find so amusing about him is that he looks like he hasn't given a shit for a while now but still beats all his opponents pretty easily.

I'm still on Sonnen (R-Or) though. I'm not too concerned by the performance of either guy against Maia. Maia is just a brutal matchup for Sonnen (R-Or); I think he'd definitely beat him again if they fought. As for Anderson, he runs away from Maia for two rounds and now everyone thinks he has great takedown defense? And let's not forget that despite having solid clinch takedowns, Maia's shot is not very good.

I also think people are overestimating the importance of it being a 5 round fight. People didn't think King Mo could wrestlerape Mousasi for 5 rounds either, but the extra two rounds were no problem. (Mousasi may have gassed, but so did Mo). It's pretty rare for the last two rounds of a fight to have a different character than the opening three. If Sonnen (R-Or) wins the first three rounds, I would take him to win the fight all the way down to -400 at least. If anything, instead of favoring "a finisher", I'd say the uncertainty of fighters' cardio in the late rounds is likely, from a bettor's perspective, to favor the underdog.

Sonnen has never been in a 5 rounder has he?

Silva has and we know he can do it.

I agree generally, but many times (I don't know, maybe 20% of the time) you see the tide turning pretty hard in the 3rd round, and you just know that 1 more round would have been the difference.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 117

Sonnen (R-Or) has never been in a 5 rounder has he?

Silva has and we know he can do it.

We know Silva can fight for five rounds with someone who doesn't really want to engage with him. I bet most of Chael's 3-rounders have been much more energy-intensive than Silva's 5 rounders.

I agree generally, but many times (I don't know, maybe 20% of the time) you see the tide turning pretty hard in the 3rd round, and you just know that 1 more round would have been the difference.

Yeah, and most of the time, I'd say it's cardio-related. And if we aren't sure which fighter is more likely to gas, that favors the underdog.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

We know Silva can fight for five rounds with someone who doesn't really want to engage with him. I bet most of Chael's 3-rounders have been much more energy-intensive than Silva's 5 rounders.

I think that the only way to survive 5 rounds is to not engage him... anytime some comes after him, they get lit up. He is like Chuck that way, he needs you to come forward so he can punch you. Every guy that steps in on him gets punched in the face. Leites and Maia only survived by staying away from him for a few rounds. Even Cote who made it to round 3 was staying the hell away.

I don't know, I just think Sonnen is about to get embarassed and then lose the state rep race too.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 117

I just think Sonnen (R-Or) is about to get embarassed and then lose the state rep race too.

He already dropped out.

[sideloaded]

Re: UFC 117

I would love just to bet Anderson and walk away but after seeing how mentally unstable he is inside the octagon and at this level any small mental problem can lose you the fight.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 117

Honestly I think if sonnen can get him to the ground he can hold him down there a while most likely. I'm still not sure about the sub..Anderson has subd one guy, D.H. At first the fact that he has only submitted one guy made me think he is not likely to sub Chael but now that I think about it I'm not so sure. Anderson hasn't had to sub many people because nobody really gets him to the ground and he knocks everyone out on the feet..

I think Chael will def have the best MMA Wrestling of anyone Anderson silva has faced. The diff alone between his performance against Yushin O. and Mark munoz performance against him is big.

I think Chael has a pretty solid shot here. He will be a lot better at taking Anderson down than anyone Anderson has ever fought, including Hendo. I bet someone will disagree with the Hendo/Chael wrestling evaluation but I think its correct. Hendo=greco roman as far as i know.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 117

I think that the only way to survive 5 rounds is to not engage him... anytime some comes after him, they get lit up.

It's certainly the best way. Silva's a brutal counterer all right. I'd say there's at least a 40% chance Silva puts Chael down right away. He's waaay more likely than Marquardt to kill Sonnen when he shoots in. Clearly though, it's Sonnen's weak striking and submission defense that make him the dog here. If it were GSP, I'd be giving him better than even odds on the GnP/LnP victory.

I don't know, I just think Sonnen is about to get embarassed and then lose the state rep race too.

Yeah, people started asking questions about some of Sonnen's real-estate deals and he suddenly decided he didn't need to be in the race anymore.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

^^ I think GSP would beat him.