UFC 117

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

You honestly believe +450=30% chance of winning? And you use this knowledge to bet? As for your side bet of $1000.00, that is just a silly thing to say over the internet. How about 100K? Give me a break. How about I copy my boxing picks from another site, and show you where I am hitting at close to 75 % and hitting +300 dogs.

Just to let you know, I have been making a living betting boxing for over a decade. Fairly new to MMA, so am still learning. But anyone who says they CAN MAKE a living betting big favorites is nothing more than a liar. And I have met plenty of them, they all eventually go bust. And I have been betting boxing since I was 16, and am now 37. I have seen these guys come and go. I doubt MMA is that much different.

With all the excitment, I missed your response.

I didn't say I think +450 = 30%. I know how to convert a line to its implied probability. I was saying the bet at +300 (25%) is not a good bet- i just said I don't think he has a 30% chance... but I consider him him @ +450 (18%)... I don't really think that any legitimate fighter should be less than 20%. Which is why I never bet over -400 favorites.

As for winning on favorites, I have posted my year to date picks on this site. I have only been betting on MMA for three years, but I maybe bet 5 or 6 dogs a year. All my bets are favorites, and I have consistently beat the line. I happen to be on my worst streak ever (by far) but I trust my edge enough to know that I will bounce back.

As for the side bet, I wasn't being literal. I am 100% serious though that I firmly believe I can beat the line at any level (below -600, because there arent enough fights steeper than that).

I (used to) follow a vert strict formula for betting mma favorites. I have gotten away from it a little, but I think you can pick favorites that are "more sure" than the line indicates by narrowing down the fights to the ones where you know where the fight will take place (for example, Askren/Hornbuckle tonight).

But all of that aside, I fail to see how there is some mathmatical edge in betting favorites. Value is the question. It can be found in favorites and underdogs. I only bet underdogs that I actually think are going to win the fight (my line has to be at least even). Then when the line is out, if my line is set further out, I bet. That is all there is to value. The only question is whether you can spot it or not. It does not make a lick of difference whether it is on the favorite or the dog.

The only issue is money management. If you are going to be betting favorites, you have to manage your bankroll very strictly. I have been doing quite well for the few years I have been doing this.

I have no way of verifying any of this, any more than you can verify your claims (except for my 9 month old blog which tracks my plays and breakdowns, from which about 70% of the poster's here migrated).

My boxing picks are posted and can be read. Many winners, and most have a + next to them. Maybe you have found magic, or maybe our definitions of BIG favorites are different, but I have been doing this for 20 years and met many guys that bet heavy favorites, and it worked for awhile, and then BAMM, they were done. When betting heavy favorites, one prolonged bad streak, and you are toast, unless you have an endless supply of money.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

I wouldnt even mind having southbay around here if he wasnt such a prick all the time.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

I think Luke and I were surprised at your tone about the Zewkey FORUM. You just said you went to the Zewkey FORUM and were impressed. And then you said you post there all the time. But the way thay you said you were impressed made it sound like it was was your first time seeing it.

Completely inaccurate. I never said such a thing. There is a difference betwwen giving someone a hard time. And telling blatant untruths. Go back and reread, or slow down so you can keep up.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 117

answer me this though, why does your handle read zY when your name's pussy?

I actually genuinely laughed out loud at this one.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

Or instead of suggesting people slow down you could possibly not post such confusing clusters of words in the first place... I didn't know what the hell you were really saying here either. So either your some kind of super genius and Luke, Scientist, as well as myself are all below your level of grammatical intelligence; or you just posted in such a way that it did not properly convey your intended meaning.

Ever hear that saying "if you can't tell who it is, odds are it's you"?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

Ludo, how many pubescent girls has Ubereem beat up? LOL

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

Or instead of suggesting people slow down you could possibly not post such confusing clusters of words in the first place... I didn't know what the hell you were really saying here either. So either your some kind of super genius and Luke, Scientist, as well as myself are all below your level of grammatical intelligence; or you just posted in such a way that it did not properly convey your intended meaning.

Ever hear that saying "if you can't tell who it is, odds are it's you"?

Do me a favor, paste the post that was so confusing. You expect me to take on a cirle jerk of guys at the same time, and not come out somewhat confused.

Once again, what the fuck is it that I posted that seems so damn confusing.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

Um... I quoted the post that had us puzzled, bra. Try and keep up, will ya?

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

Ludo, how many pubescent girls has Ubereem beat up? LOL

Are you kidding me? How do you think he stayed in shape to fight Rogers? Only the best sparring/training partners for the Reem!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

I thought Rogers WAS one of the pubescent teens? He certainly looked that way during the fight.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.

Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.

Or instead of suggesting people slow down you could possibly not post such confusing clusters of words in the first place... I didn't know what the hell you were really saying here either. So either your some kind of super genius and Luke, Scientist, as well as myself are all below your level of grammatical intelligence; or you just posted in such a way that it did not properly convey your intended meaning.

Ever hear that saying "if you can't tell who it is, odds are it's you"?

Good God Ludo. Zewkey is a website, a website I post on. A website that has been mentioned in at least a half a dozen posts in the last hour. I post boxing info. on it. You expect me to answer all your fucking Culombo questions, and hope that I do not confuse some of you at the same time...GOOD LUCK!

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Um... I quoted the post that had us puzzled, bra. Try and keep up, will ya?

If you were reading the posts before that one, you would have understood it. I can not continually type the same thing over and over in hopes that the half a dozen dudes will all see it.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117




Wait a minute. This guy's fuckin' with us like Luke used to do when he couldn't sleep. Good one, bra!