UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Edman,

I thought Miller wrestled D1... I looked it up, you are right. I am on Salter too now.

Like Luke said, I will get serious about this event when all lines are out.

I was thinking Lentz, but I am off of that fight all together now. I think Winner may be able to stuff him.

I was leaning Gray, but sbjj talked me out of it.

I was leaning OZ, but now think Soto might be able to top control him.

I was leaning Diaz, but I am worried he will just stand and trade with Davis. Davis has had trouble with rangy strikers (Swick/Hardy) but Diaz is not nearly as good a striker as those guys.

I like Maia to win, but it depends on the line.

I like Harris, but he will be too steep.

I got nothing here. Salter is looking like the play here.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Update: Lentz actually was a scholrship wrestler for the Univerity of Minnesota. I don't think he was ever a varsity wrestler, but it looks like he wrestled 2 years there. UM is obviously a powerhouse wrestling school, one of the best programs.

from niklentz.com:
"While wrestling for the University of Minnesota, Nik Lentz realized his genuine talent and love for the sport and decided to take his wrestling fad to a new level. In 2005, Lentz began to train for MMA."

it also says something similar on several other sites

Why is a scholarship wrestler a bad thing? I took that as meaning he was a good wrestler so he got a scholarship? What does it actually mean?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ I meant it as a good thing. He wrestled on a very high profile division I team. I meant his wrestling cred is more impressive than I thought originally.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ I meant it as a good thing. He wrestled on a very high profile division I team. I meant his wrestling cred is more impressive than I thought originally.

That would lead me to beleive he could take down Winner. He is a brit after all heh. I mean that half seriously. I already have about 4u on him. We'll see. I'll def be on salter. I'll prob even do some 2-3 fighter parlays for this one. I won 4u on one for fitch/hughes last time.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I am staying away from Lentz now. I think it will be a very very close fight... If they offer a decision prop, I will consider that.
I am still thinking about Osipczac.
I am off of Diaz now too.

Hopefully the rest of the lines will offer something worthwhile.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

This card kind of sucks for betting. Fights are too close. I'm on Florian so far and that's it.

[sideloaded]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I'm just going to take the bookies money and put my bankroll on Couture.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ I am going to be putting 6.4u on Randy for the recently revived neverending locks parlay.

Also, you are not taking the book's money... you are taking some other guy's money, some guy that bet on Toney. The book doesn't care who wins.

[sideloaded]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ I am going to be putting 6.4u on Randy for the recently revived neverending locks parlay.

Also, you are not taking the book's money... you are taking some other guy's money, some guy that bet on Toney. The book doesn't care who wins.

Well at the dawn of time it was his money at some point.

[sideloaded]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ I am going to be putting 6.4u on Randy for the recently revived neverending locks parlay.

Also, you are not taking the book's money... you are taking some other guy's money, some guy that bet on Toney. The book doesn't care who wins.

Where is the neverending locks parlay located?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ I am going to be putting 6.4u on Randy for the recently revived neverending locks parlay.

Also, you are not taking the book's money... you are taking some other guy's money, some guy that bet on Toney. The book doesn't care who wins.

Where is the neverending locks parlay located?

In my mind. There is a thread on it somewhere. It is basically boxing and mma fights that are way too high to bet, but they are definitely going to win. I have only made 2 bets on it so far (Abel Cullem @ -800 and Phil Davis @ -715). I don't put stuff in there like BJ/Edgar where they other guy is actually a skilled fighter and has a chance. It is reserved for fights where the other guy has no chance- like when Mousasi fought Goodridge last year... I was going to put Lashley's last fight in it, but it got pulled.

I started with a separate bankroll of 5u- and I am just going to keep betting the entire bankroll until I chicken out and take it down.

I will find the thread and bump it when I actually make the play.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I am off of Diaz now too.

Why? I think Davis might be worth a small play, but I think Diaz has some value @ -200. I can see Davis getting inside and moving in and out and landing some nice shots, I think Diaz may have an overrated chin, he was dropped by Guillard and I think he was stumbled by Maynard..both LWs. Davis is bigger, more powerful, and has better boxing.

Does Diaz have a significant reach advantage?

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I am off of Diaz now too.

Why? I think Davis might be worth a small play, but I think Diaz has some value @ -200. I can see Davis getting inside and moving in and out and landing some nice shots, I think Diaz may have an overrated chin, he was dropped by Guillard and I think he was stumbled by Maynard..both LWs. Davis is bigger, more powerful, and has better boxing.

Does Diaz have a significant reach advantage?

He was definetly dropped by Gray Maynard. I just rewatched that fight.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I've already made a small play on Davis. Diaz is an untested commodity at WW and Davis can give anyone problems.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Poopoo, I just think Diaz is going to be even at best with Davis standing. If he gets it down (insert generic bjj comment here).

I am afraid that Diaz will just try to stand and bang the whole time. Also, he has shown some nice takedown skills, he launched Neer. BUt they were against guys that tied up with him... I think Davis might be wanting to just box.

I think was selling Davis short based on his recent woes. He lost to Swick, who is good and it was close. He lost to Hardy, who is good and it was close. And he got whupped by Saunders, which I am writing off as Davis being unprepared for a standup fight... I think he thought Saunders was goinf to want to grapple him. Diaz can't hurt him standing... so it comes down to whether Diaz does the smart thing... betting on a Diaz to do something smart is probably not a great idea. I think Nate will just stand and talk shit while losing the boxing match. I am not betting on Davis though, because if Nate does decide to grapple, I think he can get teh takedown with a good gameplan...