Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

To be fair, Van Arsdale was over 40 when he fought Babalu. Still, Babalu hasn't been outgrappled since Randleman and Hendo 1 way back in 2002. Doesn't mean it wont happen and I think Dan can force a standup fight anyway.

[edman5555]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

To add to that. I watched part of the Dan Henderson/ Renato Sobral fight that was posted on one of the sites I visit. Sobral looked really big in the fight, bigger than Dan. The important thing I thought of is that Renato couldn't submit Dan then. Renato started as a BJJ guy right? Dan started as a wrestler. If Dan could stop his sub's then it would stand to reason that he can now, because he has much more BJJ exp than he did then. I am sure Renato has learned some tricks since then but if he was a Black Belt then, he probably hasn't advanced as much since then as Dan has. Dans rear naked chose loss to Anderson Silva troubles me a little though. Silva just took his back pretty easily if I remember correctly.

[edman5555]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

If it is a standup match Dan should be able to wade through Babalus punches fairly easily..he has a great chin and Renato doesn't hit very hard. It would make sense that he could win like that but you never know, he could try to take him down..it's so hard to know what he will try to do.

[edman5555]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

Renato might not mind getting taken down either. Who knows. He must know he isn't knocking Dan out but then again, his ego can get in the way.

[sbjj]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

I am assuming both Lindland and Sobral will be dogs. And I think Lindland has the better shot of the two of them. My first thought was like Scientist...Robbie is going to just straight knock him out. But then I really thought about it, and I really believe that Lindland might just drag his ass to the mat and smother him. Lindland actually has VERY good takedowns, and if he comes in shape for this fight, I think he could beat Lawlor.

I think Dan beats Sobral. i think the fight will look like the Paul Harris fight. Once again though, it depends on Dan's cardio. One would assume he would come in a bit better shape for this fight than he did the Shields fight. And it is a 3 round fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

^^ Babalu gasses all the time too though.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

Edman, Babalu actually started out as a wrestler. He was on the Brazilian National wrestling team (Brazilian wrestling is not awesome). He did not get his BB in BJJ until like 2007.

Edit, it was April 2008 when he got his bb: http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2008/04/12/ ... belt-pics/

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

I think Hackney is going to pull off the upset. He's obviously going to be coming into the bout much smaller than his opponent, but we all know that size isn't everything. I'm actually going to go out on a limb here and say that Hackney weather's an early storm, lands a few good punches, and then finishes it with a series of tiger strikes. Obviously I could be way off, but my guess is he gets it done, but takes enough damage in the fight that he is unable to advance to the next round.

For me, Hackney's good at +200 or better for a .5u play.

[edman5555]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

Ah ok.

[sbjj]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

^^ Babalu gasses all the time too though.

Just pointing out something that could have an impact on the guy I am picking. Just another reason I would favor Dan.

I personally think both guys will come in good shape. Babalu seems to be about as serious as he has been in quite some time. I just think Dan is a bad matchup for him.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

I think Hackney is going to pull off the upset. He's obviously going to be coming into the bout much smaller than his opponent, but we all know that size isn't everything. I'm actually going to go out on a limb here and say that Hackney weather's an early storm, lands a few good punches, and then finishes it with a series of tiger strikes. Obviously I could be way off, but my guess is he gets it done, but takes enough damage in the fight that he is unable to advance to the next round.

For me, Hackney's good at +200 or better for a .5u play.

not sure what just happened here...

At first I thought you were just rambling on about some nonsense... but now I think you are making some kind of Keith Hackney White Tiger Karate reference?

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

not sure what just happened here...

At first I thought you were just rambling on about some nonsense... but now I think you are making some kind of Keith Hackney White Tiger Karate reference?

That's correct.

I was just breaking down Keith Hackney/Emmanuel Yarbrough. Is that fight not on this card?

[edman5555]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

I would not be suprised to see Dan come in anywhere between -250 or even -110 or thereabouts. It is hard to say what the bookies will look at. Dan is 40 now and he is coming off a loss. Babalu is coming off a win against Robbie Lawler but he got ko'd by Mousasi. Before that he posted some wins. Any predictions on the lines? Anyone know what is being posted in EU?

[sbjj]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

-110 would get me excited. -250 would force me to look elsewhere for a potential bet.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce St. Louis Dec. 4th

-225 to -250 is my guess. But I am horrible at guessing lines. If Dan came in @ -110 I would bet it.