UFN 23/Fight for the Troops

[poopoo333]

http://mmafightvideosonline.blogspot.com/2011/01/mike-brown-vs-diego-nunes-fight-video.html

^^Brown's most recent fight against Nunes

[MMA_scientist]

Thinking of doing Brown plus:

1/22/2011 10:30 PM Props Fighting 1028 Any other result* -4500 vs M.Guillard wins by submission
1/22/2011 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1120 Any other result* -4950 vs T.Hague wins in round 3
1/22/2011 9:40 PM Props Fighting 1230 Any other result* -1590 vs G.Roop wins by TKO/KO
1/22/2011 9:25 PM Props Fighting 1332 Any other result* -4500 vs P.Barry wins by submission
1/22/2011 9:10 PM Props Fighting 1428 Any other result* -1700 vs M.Wiman wins by submission

Any holes there? Hague is a gasser, but so is Mitrione from what I recall. So I question that one. Hominick has only been KO/TKO's twice, ince by a slam and once by cut. He has never really been stopped legitimately by strikes standing or on the ground. It is POSSIBLE that Wiman could submit Miller too, he has a couple of submissions, but I doubt it happens. What do you think?

Oh it is exactly -500 as is.

[poopoo333]

Mitrione didn't gas against Beltran in a 3 round "war". Hague has gassed bad in both fights in the UFC he had that went the distance. But you never know what will happen with two huge guys in a slugfest..so I don't really like that play. The other ones look good to me though.

[SPX]

I think Guillard has a snowball's chance in hell of submitting Dunham, that's for damn sure.

[MMA_scientist]

If Brown comes in at -500, that would make the thinh -237 overall.

[poopoo333]

Speaking of prop bets, I am actually thinking about taking Dunham by sub @+175

[MMA_scientist]

I think Guillard has a snowball's chance in hell of submitting Dunham, that's for damn sure.

Yeah, I feel pretty good about that one and the "not Barry by submission"

[SPX]

If Brown comes in at -500, that would make the thinh -237 overall.

You think Brown will be that high? And if he is, do you think money comes in on Yahya?

[MMA_scientist]

Speaking of prop bets, I am actually thinking about taking Dunham by sub @+175

Normally I would want better odds on that, but I think if Dunham drops him with a punch he will latch on to a sub. So really he either wins by decision or submission. If you accept his line as accurate (-240), that is an implied probability of 70%. If you say he has a 45/45/10 for submission/decision/TKO, which is what I think is about right... that gives a line of +122, so there is value to the prop.

He has 2 tko wins, but he has never TKOd a guy like Melvin. So I think the TKO is less than his 18% TKO rate.

I'm still not going to bet it though.

[MMA_scientist]

You think Brown will be that high? And if he is, do you think money comes in on Yahya?

Yeah, I think he will be at least -400. I will surprised if he is less than -400. I am not too quick on the lines lately, so I am guessing by the time i get around to him, he will be -500. If he comes in -350, that will be great.

I might hedge it with Yahya by submission, because it could totally happen. That is the only way Yahya wins though.

[SPX]

Like PP said, I'm hoping the bookies shoot lower since Brown has been doing kind of shitty lately.

[poopoo333]

I like Hominick, Mitrione, and Brown to win, but I don't like their odds to bet them straight (I am assuming Brown is going to have a ridiculous line)...I think I may make a 3 fight parlay again like I did at the Challengers show. Assuming Brown is -550, this will make a parlay of these 3 on 5dimes +135.

[poopoo333]

Like PP said, I'm hoping the bookies shoot lower since Brown has been doing kind of shitty lately.

I really think this was the case for the opening Machida/Couture line. So if this does happen, make sure you are quick getting to the lines because it will drop quick.

[MMA_scientist]

Like PP said, I'm hoping the bookies shoot lower since Brown has been doing kind of shitty lately.

Yeah, but he has been beaten by strikers. Yahya has 15 wins and 14 submissions. He can't punch at all. He has to the get the bigger stronger wrestler to the floor, which I don't think he can do. His only chance here is to Werdum him. He might be able to catch Brown coming in for a finish. He just doesn't have a alot of ways to win this.

[MMA_scientist]

Oh it is not like Yahya is setting the division on fire. He is coming off 2 straight losses at 135. I think we will be super lucky to see -400