UFN 23/Fight for the Troops

[Thewisemann]

^^ Sprawl and brawl KO for Brown.

What line are you giving for Brown?

[MMA_scientist]

What line are you giving for Brown?

'bout -400 or -450

Yahya has pretty good takedowns, but Brown is just a huge and way too strong to go down.

[edman5555]

Anyone else here think Guillard might be a good bet? For maybe .5u or so. He has good takedown defense. His big weakness has always been subs, which obv Dunham is good at. He seems to be getting better at that though. Guillards striking is better than Dunhams. = If Guillard can keep it standing he should win. If it does go to the ground it will be dangerous for Dunham but I don't think it will be insta-death for Guillard. He might be able to get to his feet. Either way I would not bet Dunham in this fight.

[Ludo]

Guillard is definitely a live dog, no doubt about it. My only concern with Melvin is that he's going to get overzealous and get himself taken down. Plus Dunham is very long and rangey as a striker, and the last rangey striker with good subs Guillard fought did beat him. I'm not saying Dunhams striking is on par with Diaz' but styles make fights and Evan is all wrong for Melvin. Probably a no bet for Me.

[edman5555]

no bet is probably the best move. unless guillard gets up to +250

[poopoo333]

I like Dunham in this fight. I think he has a slight edge in the stand up, can bring the fight to the floor, and definitely finish on the floor. I don't buy the whole Guillard version 2.0 thing since he trains at Jackson's now.

[edman5555]

Guillard has power in his hands and Dunham has been dropped before. Efrain dropped him with a punch. He only oustruck Sherk after Sherk gassed. Outside of that, what has he done with his hands? Guillard has 14 knockouts. I think this is a bad bet.

[edman5555]

Bottom line: I see a path to victory for Guillard. Keep it standing. Dunham has good wrestling but Guillard isn't bad at that himself.

[poopoo333]

I was really confident in Dunham when this fight was first announced... I even said I would take him up to -400. But after watching some video and stuff, I still think Dunham will win but I am not as confident as I was. But I will take Dunham if he hit -220 or better.

[edman5555]

His wins are as follows: Per eklund(I don't even know who that is), a SPLIT dec win over marcus aurelio(look his record up, he is good but has many losses), Efrain Escudero(he almost knocked Dunham out, dropped him with a punch), Tyson Griffin(a solid win but Tyson is much smaller than him). Dunham is good but he is overrated. Guillard is also getting better IMO.

[Ludo]

I wouldn't say Dunham is overrated here. His line is about right here. He poses all the right problems to justify a -250ish line against Guillard. His record may not be as impressive as we'd like but the fact remains he only has one loss and it was a very close split decision to a former champion and perrenial top ten fighter in the division. I see a clear path to victory for each man, it's just less likely that Guillard will find his before Dunham can find one of his. I see Guillard winning one of three ways. He can win by flash KO, tire Dunham out and catch him in the later rounds(supposing the fight lasts that long), or finds a way to stay standing and grinds a decision out. None of these seem to be the kind of things I would lay a bet down on without having a better idea about than I do at this time.

[edman5555]

I wouldn't say Dunham is overrated here. His line is about right here. He poses all the right problems to justify a -250ish line against Guillard. His record may not be as impressive as we'd like but the fact remains he only has one loss and it was a very close split decision to a former champion and perrenial top ten fighter in the division. I see a clear path to victory for each man, it's just less likely that Guillard will find his before Dunham can find one of his. I see Guillard winning one of three ways. He can win by flash KO, tire Dunham out and catch him in the later rounds(supposing the fight lasts that long), or finds a way to stay standing and grinds a decision out. None of these seem to be the kind of things I would lay a bet down on without having a better idea about than I do at this time.

You are correct.

[poopoo333]

^^ok:

Guillard's wins are as follows:

Marcus Davis...due to a cut

Gabe Ruediger... the guy that has lost every significant (if that) fight he has been in

Dennis Siver... good win

Gleison Tibau... controversial win

Ronnys Torres... Torres isn't even in the UFC anymore

Waylon Lowe... took this fight on very short notice

Jeremy Stephens... split decision, Guillard didn't look too good in this fight imo, he isn't going to be able to run in, throw a punch, and run out against Dunham

[edman5555]

OK we will see what happens.

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is more an issue of Melvin's losses than his wins. Melvin has knocked some guys out but he has also been dropped himself with shots, including by Joe Stevenson. I mean, Rich Clementi beat him. Melvin is just not a top tier fighter, IMO. Almost all of his losses are to grapplers. Stuffing Ronnys Torres is going to be a lot different than stuffing Dunham. Also, Melvin has been guillotine choked several times, and Dunham has definetely been working on his (see Sherk fight, he does the Marcelo-tine version with the elbow lift which is sort of the new way to guillotine).

That said, Melvin is explosive and could always catch him or even win a decision... so I agree there is a path to victory for him. But Dunham will win easily IMO.