UFN 23/Fight for the Troops

[edman5555]

BTW I saw recent pics of Barry and he looks to be in really good shape. I think he should be favored here. Beltran is a brawler. He might be better on the ground than Barry though. He is belted. We will see.

[MMA_scientist]

I'm not sure I agree with this.

Everyone knows that you improve by leaps and bounds early on when learning a new skill, and then taper off as you get a solid grasp of the basics. If Barry is really that much of a neophyte grappler then 6 months with a good coach could yield big returns.

true, but going from 0 to 3 is not enough. Aside from that, Barry has been fighting professionally for almost years now. He should be a purple belt skill wise, assuming he trains every day like most fighters. But he still got subbed by a choke that looked like some guy just popped out of the closet on him, no hooks or anything.

[MMA_scientist]

BTW I saw recent pics of Barry and he looks to be in really good shape. I think he should be favored here. Beltran is a brawler. He might be better on the ground than Barry though. He is belted. We will see.

I think everyone agrees that Barry should be favored. I think Barry is going to win. The only debate is whether he should be bet at -220. I say no fn way. Everyone else says yes, so I guess I am wrong.

[edman5555]

Yeah Beltran could sub him, if he can get him down and hold him down. Thats where I think he will have trouble though.

[Luke]

What the hells been going on around here? Sheeeshhhh

[edman5555]

I think everyone agrees that Barry should be favored. I think Barry is going to win. The only debate is whether he should be bet at -220. I say no fn way. Everyone else says yes, so I guess I am wrong.

No consensus isn't right all the time. We all have valid opinions. You know a lot about grappling, more than anyone here. Your opinion is valid. Devil's advocate is the best advocate to have here.

[MMA_scientist]

No consensus isn't right all the time. We all have valid opinions. You know a lot about grappling, more than anyone here. Your opinion is valid. Devil's advocate is the best advocate to have here.

I think the issue is what is Barry's takedown defense like and how good are Beltran's takedowns. In all honesty, I really don't know. I went back and looked and Hague did actually take Barry down. Beltran was able to take Mitrione down too, but Mitrione doesn't have good takedown defense at all. Hardonk got stuffed on a shot by Barry. I don't know, it is a question to me, which is why I think Beltran has value. Also Barry gassed pretty bad against CC. Beltran gasses too, but Beltran is all heart.

But to me, if I am going to bet a guy at 2.5:1, I need to know that he is going to have an answer to a very possible takedown. Barry has looked pretty clueless to me down there.

But at even money, yeah I would take Barry because he has a dominant skill. Beltran is shitty but has big balls.

[edman5555]

Well I am not sure he gassed against cro cop, he broke his foot and and hand. That will mess with you.

[Ludo]

Wow. I done missed a doozy here didn't I? Shit went from facebook to Newton flipping his wig because a few people weren't putting alot of stock in a mystery source that says Barry has over night become a better wrestler than Beltran. But I digress.

As far as the choke actually goes, broken hand or not he had no resistance whatsoever for it from beginning to end. Cro Cop got on him, passed, and got to his back without any real effort. Then he locked the choke and finished without a problem there either. Considering Cro Cop has never been a very offense oriented grappler this says something. Mirko has only one other submission victory in the true sense of the word(of his 4 he has a choke over Barry and Randleman. One other tapped due to strikes and Barnett injured his shoulder). This leads Me to believe that while Barry may have above average defensive grappling, his submission defense isn't stellar, and his overall grappling defense from his back is poor. Lets not act like Cro Cop is an adopted Gracie all of a sudden.

Should Barry be favored over Beltran? Absolutely. Though I would have put the line closer to -140 ish. Beltran has a questionable gas tank especially in fights where he's forced to work like the last one, and most likely this one as well. Barry isn't too fresh after two rounds though either. But as has already been said the likely scenario is Barry lights Joey up fast or not at all.

[MMA_scientist]

He is probably going to decimate Beltran in 30 seconds. Beltran really needs to come in with a good gameplan, which really doesn't seem to be his style.

I don't have a dog in this race, I decided several pages back that my dog bet was Guymon. I just think that Barry is going to look awesome or really bad... I just don't know which.

[poopoo333]

I have this gut feeling about the Mckenzietine being slapped on Edwards this weekend.... am I mentally retarded?

[edman5555]

Well I am already on Barry. I am on the fence about throwing more on him. If I do it will probably be Barry by TKO.

[edman5555]

Beltran is mostly a Brawler. He should get killed by Pat.

[edman5555]

I have this gut feeling about the Mckenzietine being slapped on Edwards this weekend.... am I mentally retarded?

I have a bet on Edwards for 5u. Mckenzie has only guillotined guys with losing records or very little exp. Look his record up on sherdog. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cody-McKenzie-22173

[MMA_scientist]

I have this gut feeling about the Mckenzietine being slapped on Edwards this weekend.... am I mentally retarded?

Yes, but not because of this. McKenzie is a lot bigger than Edwards... he could find a way. But Yves is a seasoned pro, he is not some british guy on TUF, he won't get it.