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We will see. Bet Dunham.
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1 unit = 300 $ -
I'm not betting by the way. For the record, I don't know what happens. I am trying to be more analytical this year so I can make some money.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Definitely a good idea. really thinking it through and running through a process as to who can win and why and how likely each scenario is can increase your take greatly. Also, find as much video as you can on a fight your interested in and research the shit out of things helps as well.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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Yeah watching tape is a good idea. I think all the Strikeforce fights from the other night are on MMATKO if you guys want to see them. I think bouncing info off each other helps a lot too. I am doing great this year so far, I want to keep it going.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham (No. 10 LW)
I got Dunham by submission in this one. I do think Melvin has a path to victory, but I just think Dunham is a better fighter with more ways to win. I think his wrestling is good enough to get Melvin down, and he will do so eventually, and probably submit him shortly thereafter. At the current line though, I probably would not bet Dunham. Melvin may be worth a play, but not for me. I might put a little something on a Dunham by Submission prop. I really think Dunham has some of the best bjj in the division. He is a Megaton bb, and I was really surprised how easily he controlled Griffin on the ground, he just schooled him.
Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague
Mitrione should win, but I wouldn't coun't Hague out. I think Mitrione has more power... but with them being HW's they both have KO power. On the ground, I think it is evenly matched as well. I think Mitrione will win, but it is no bet for me at the current line.
Mark Hominick vs. George Roop
Hominick should have a striking edge, but Roop has been somewhat surprising people. Maybe Roop can strike. I am not really sure. If it goes to the ground, edge to Hominick because of his submission game off his back. At +200 though, Roop might be worth a play. I am not going to bet Hominick at -240... maybe at -140 I would bet him. They have a common opponent in Garcia, and Hominick won a split and Roop got a draw. I think it is closer than the line indicates, and Roop may have some value.
Patrick Barry vs. Joey Beltran
My rule is that I do not bet 1 dimensional fighters as favorites, ever. My other rule is that I do not bet against the Mexicutioner. Barry should win, but Barry has a way of losing fights he should win. Beltran has value IMO. His usual game plan is ground and pound and brawling... I think Barry will be able ot stuff him for at least a round which should be enough for Barry to stop him... but Beltran is nails, he hangs in there. I think he might win here. It is Beltran or nothing for me.
Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman
I like Wiman @ +160. Wiman has strong TD defense and a pretty good ground game himself. Standing, I think Wiman can win, though it is not a lock standing either. But Wiman is tough, has a good chin, good power and good takedown defense, and he has never been submitted. Cole is probably going to come out super aggressive looking to kill or be killed... I think it is a toss up, but at +160, I already have .5 on Wiman. It is not something I feel super confident about, because Cole could submit him or even out point him standing. But at +160, I think it is worth a small bet.
DaMarques Johnson vs. Michael Guymon
Both are well rounded guys, but I think Guymon is the heavier puncher and more top oriented grappler. I think it is a close fight, could go either way, but I like Guymon. Guymon has been in there with tougher guys and has better wins at this point. Johnson has lost to several top oriented grapplers, and Guymon really doesn't have a BAD loss. Every guy that has beaten him has been pretty good. Guymon beat Quinn Mulhern, which makes me think he knows how to avoid a triangle, which is Johnson's main weapon. I will probably bet Guymon at -120 or better.
Yves Edwards vs. Cody McKenzie
I don't know. Cody is a lot bigger than Yves, I could totally see him wrapping him up with those big long arms and forcing Yves to grapple with him. Either guy probably has value as an underdog.
Waylon Lowe vs. Willamy Freire
Lowe is a DII national champion wrestler. Friere is a MuyThai/bjj guy. Freire is going to be more dynamic on his feet and on the mat... but Lowe might be able to blanket him. Not enough information for me to bet it, but again, either guy probably has value as a dog.
Amilcar Alves vs. Charlie Brenneman
Alves is the judo guy with the dynamic striking. I thought he might be able to beat Pierce in his debut, but was horribly wrong. Brenneman is a lot like Pierce... really good wrestling, does not give up on the takedown. I don't see how this goes any differently than the Pierce fight. Brenneman should win a decision. But Alves is live, i would consider him @ +200.
Rani Yahya vs. Mike Thomas Brown
I see no way for Yahya to get this one down, and if he does, Brown is no slouch grappling. Brown should win by keeping it standing. Originally I said -400 to -450, but it is short notice for Brown, so I won't go over -400. I might try to work this into a 2 fight parlay.
Will Campuzano vs. Chris Cariaso
Again, really close fight. Cariaso did well against Rebello on the ground, but then got schooled by Barao. Campuzano has been fighting really tough guys and losing. I think Cariaso is going to have a grappling edge though. I wil consider Cariaso at close to even or better.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I think Edwards might be a good bet, depending on his line. What do you guys know about Mckenzie? I know he has a nasty guillotine but is that all? How is his BJJ in general? Most of his wins have come against guys with losing records or very little experience by the way. I will probably be betting Edwards at anything decent depending on what I can figure out about McKenzie. I might watch some tape as well.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Yves Edwards seems to be pretty well rounded. I would think he would beat someone one dimensional. I have a hunch Cody is. I heard his striking was bad but I haven't seen a lot of it.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Nice breakdown Scientist. I pretty much agree with you on everything when it comes to the fights that I have looked at.
I really think Dunham will sub Guillard as well. The only thing that worries me is that Guillard will catch Dunham early like Escudero did, but other then that I think Dunham will get a choke on Guillard.
I really think Mitrione is going to dominate, especially if it goes past round 1. Hague gasses fast, and with Mitrione's pace it is bound to happen. The only thing keeping me away from Mitrione is his wild exchanges he gets in..he got buckled by Beltran in one of them and I think if Hague lands clean Mitrione is going out.
I think Hominick wins this, I think he is the overall better fighter. He isn't going to stand in front of Roop and just walk forward like Korean Zombie did. Also, they share a common opponent in Garcia, but that split decision was bullshit, even though Hominick won. It was basically Garcia being dominated and still somehow getting the call on a scorecard like in the Nam Phan fight. Roop was also beating Garcia until a point deduction (IIRC it was a bullshit point deduction too).
Pat Barry should dominate the stand up, but I don't trust him. Against Hague, Hardonk, and Crocop, he would hurt them bad, but not follow up. He just freezes and lets them back into the fight. Beltran is a decent bet at around +200 imo, I think his game plan will be to take Barry down and control him/ground and pound. He did this successfully against a bigger Mitrione in their fight in round 1.
I think Mike Guymon and DaMarques Johnson is a fairly even fight, but I will be betting Guymon if he is at + odds, which I think he will be because of his recent sub losses and Johnson's bigger name.
I haven't looked at any of the other fights, but style wise I think Brenneman beats Alves.
I really don't like much on this card to bet. Depending on the odds, I am probably going to bet Brenneman and Mike Guymon. I will probably place an anchor bet on Dunham.Last edited by poopoo333; 01-10-2011, 02:02 PM.Comment
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Good breakdown, Scientist.
Guillard is probably a better boxer technically, but I think Dunham wins. He's better in most every other regard.
And for the record (not directed at you, Sci), Escudero did NOT "almost knock Dunham out"I heart cockComment
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^^ I had forgotten that Dunham was able to take Escudero down several times... Escudero is a way better wrestler than Melvin. That probably had something to do with the way Escudero was coming forward and winging punches though. I think Melvin has to stay on his bike if wants to win here... if he comes in looking to land power shots, Dunham is going to plant him on the mat, IMO. But Melvin could potentially do what he did with Stephens. I still think Dunham will get him down though.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Well he dropped him with a punch. My point is Dunham's striking isn't all that and a bag of potatoe chips. Guillard happens to have a mean punch as well. On top of that, he seems to be doing much better. A la Clay Guida.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Both guys got dropped way down the ranks after losses. Guillard went from fighting top tier guys and getting beat to fighting guys he probably would have beaten any way. He goes from fighting Stevenson and Diaz to fighting guys making their debut... IMO, Guillard has only had 1 fight that he MIGHT have lost if he was the old Guillard, Stephens. But even that was a somewhat favorable matchup. At one point, Melvin beat Siver and Tibau back to back, which is more impressive than what he is doing now IMO.
Same thing with Guida... he went from fighting Florian and Sanchez to Shannon Gugerty. Guida has put together 2 quality wins in row now, but he has done that in the past as well.
Basically, Greg Jackson making fighters better is a myth. It is confirmation bias. Melvin and Guida might get better there just by virtue of actually having sparring partners. I don't think either of them were in camps at all before that.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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