UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[Svino]

Oh, and on the subject of "automatic" bets, my investigation into the decision prop is showing some early promise.

If you bet 1u on each Zuffa main card fight to go to decision, you would so far this year have risked 29u and won about 4.1u. (with the distribution by event being: -0.35u, +2.37u, +0.07u, -0.33u, +1.83u, and +0.48u)

[SPX]

I just watched that Reuban Duran highlight video. He looks like he is fast and can hit very hard.

I agree. I watched both highlights and two full fights. He looks like a solid prospect, although if he's mostly been fighting cans, I'm sure that has something to do with it. But as mentioned before, how he'll do against better guys is a question mark.

I hope Miz wins, because I really like him. But I'm going to stay away from this one.

[edman5555]

I just watched the weigh ins. I'm feeling good about my bet on Diego. I've got him straight up and I've got him by decision. He is not smaller than Kampmann. He is a little shorter and a lot thicker. He will be getting takedowns.

[Luke]

OK.

I went back to September 2008. There have been 6 draws in the UFC in the last 2.5 years: Maynard/Edgar, Penn/Fitch, Bongfelt/Natal, Kongo/Browne, Uno/Camoes, and Lentz/Tavares.

Of those 6 draws 4 of them have occured in the last 6 months.

The lines (I am guessing) average around +4000 for the draw. 10 fights per card. There has been 55 cards (39 UFCs, 11 UFN, 5 TUF). 550 fights.

550/ 6 = 1 draw for every 110 fights. So you would need +11000 on the draw option to have broken even.

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.


So, nevermind.

well yeah......you cant just bet draw everytime and expect to turn a profit . I also dont think you can just take all the fights over a year and use that as a measure because a lot of match ups arent even suppose to be close (-400 to -500 lines).

I think if you took out all the -250 and above fights you'd be a lot closer to the 40 to 1 mark.

Also with MMA being 3 and 5 rounds its makes it even more unlikely of a draw because you need a 10-10 or 10-8 round to even out the score and those scores themselves are rare. In boxing fights are 8, 10 or 12 rounds so all you need is 10-9 rounds for a draw to happen .

I think when betting a toss up fight or betting a fighter by decision its a smart idea to cover yourself with a draw but only if you personally think the fight is going to be close ,otherwise just let it ride


draws happen so rarely that unless you have a gut feeling about a fight draws are too hard to predict

[poopoo333]

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^^^^Dana sure looks different in that picture

[MMA_scientist]

well yeah......you cant just bet draw everytime and expect to turn a profit

I realize that. I was looking at the recent influx of draws though... I did not realize that there were so few draws before. I figured it would be close to a break even bet, but thought we might be seeing an trend towards more draws while judges try to placate everyone. But it turns out that the bet is so bad overall, that there would almost have to be a draw every other event for it to be +

[MMA_scientist]

On the other hand, if you already have weighted bets on both guys to win by decision because you're confident it will go the distance and the judges are fucking crazy, betting the draw is a pretty important hedge to make.


(goddammitsomuch)

If 50% of all fights go to decisions, betting the draw on every decision is not that bad. On average in the last 30 months, the draw is 110:1. It pays 40:1. But if you only bet the fights that went to a decision it is not nearly as bad of a bet (it still sucks compared to an even money bet, but probably worth it for those fights).

[edman5555]

I am betting on Palhares and Diego tonight. Anyone here think they will be losing? If so, why?

[SPX]

I honestly think Kamp may just outstrike and out wrestle Diego. He's looked great lately and has a way of exceeding expectations.

[edman5555]

Really? I feel like Diego is going to run out there, pick Kampmann up in the air and plant him on his ass.

[SPX]

Fuck you, edman!

[MMA_scientist]

I bet on Diego also, but I think it is a true coin toss fight. Would not be surprised at all to see Kampmann stuff him repeatedly, or even get top position like he did against Thiago.

Palhares should win, but again, I think Branch is very live. Palhares should be slightly better in all areas, but I wouldn't be suprised to see Branch come on strong later in the fight. I do think Palhares will win though.

[poopoo333]

Sorry edman, branch got this

[edman5555]

I think Palhares can take him down fairly easily and his chin is pretty solid. Branch doesn't hit that hard and I'm not convinced his takedown D is that great. I'm not sure that Palhares can sub him if he gets him down so it might have to go the distane which worries me a little bit. You should watch the weigh in video. Palhares is obv a thick dude but I hadn't seen him in a while so it was kind of shocking this time around. His lats are ridiculous. Poopoo should call him and get some tips. Diego is also much bigger. I read an interview with him on Sherdog and he said that in his last camp his hand was broken so he wasn't lifting weights at all. He has been on a strength/weight lifting regimen since then and he is a lot thicker now. We'll see what happens. I agree with you about Kampmann though, he is very good. He is the capability to win. I just give the advantage to the guy with the takedown ability.