UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[SPX]

War Fucking Mizugaki!

I've liked him ever since I first saw him against Torres. He hasn't been able to string any wins together and lost his last fight though, so I hope he can put a streak together starting with this one. I'd hate to see him get cut.

[MMA_scientist]

This Weidman guy sounds pretty good but he has only fought four times and Sakara is very experienced.

Weidman is a beast. He is an uber-prospect... think Phil Davis type prospect. He could flop of course, but I am getting him now before he is -500 on every fight.

[SPX]

Hey Scientist, since you've done the research, give me the counter-argument to this assessment:



Takeya Mizugaki vs. Reuben Duran: Having suddenly appeared in the WEC and seemingly been swept off the map just as quickly, Takeya Mizugaki makes it into the UFC in a do-or-die fight. Sporting a 2-3 record in several tough fights in the division, Mizugaki was in the unfortunate position of being Urijah Faber's welcoming committee to the Bantamweight division, being choked out cold in the first round. His opponent is Reuben Duran, a UFC new-comer who cut his teeth inside the KOTC promotion, and sports a 7-2 record as a pro.
While I'd never heard of Duran before this fight, a few minutes on youtube showed exactly how far this kid could go on the big stage. Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game make Duran a potential killer in the UFC Bantamweight division. The main issue for me here is Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin, and Duran's uncanny counter-punching. Don't blink, as Mizugaki doesn't even have time to get his feet under him before Duran lands one on the chin for the KO.

[MMA_scientist]

I can't give a counter-argument, other than "liar liar pants on fire." It sounds like something Rios would have written, it does not reflect reality, at least as I see it. Where that guys sees "Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game", I see a heavy handed brawler with no wrestling and a low level positional game with a tight guillotine choke. I specifically looked into his gym and trainers, and I see no indication that he is above a blue belt level on the ground.

Where he sees "Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin," I see solid posture and submission defense a very solid chin. He when has he been KO'd? I don't see any indication of a chin problem in Mizugaki at all.

Aside from that whatever Duran has done, he has accomplished over complete tomato cans. Duran does appear to have heavy hands though. Mizugaki has been fighting the very best BWs in the whole wide world (Faber, Torres, Jorgenson, Yahya, and Curran are his last five fights) and he has not looked too bad. Although he got his back taken by Faber, he was actually winning the fight up to that point (I specifically recall because I bet on Faber). If Jason Reinhardt has taught us anything, it is that competition level makes difference.

Mizugaki stood with Torres and rolled with Yahya. I think he can survive whatever Reuben Duran throws at him.

But really, the biggest reason I think Mizugaki will take this is wrestling. Mizugaki should get him down and pound on him.

All of that said, just because he has been can crushing does not mean he cannot beat better guys. But I don't think there is any empiracle evidence that he will be able to hang with Mizugaki. Doesn't mean it won't happen of course.

[MMA_scientist]

I should also mention that this is all predicated on Mizugaki not being an idiot. He seems to sometimes get drawn into his opponent's game. He has pretty much grappled with guys he should be standing with, and stood with guys he should be grappling with. If he decides to stand and bang, he could very well get beat.

[poopoo333]

SPX, I read your boyfriend Mike Hammersmith's analysis on the Mizugaki fight as well, and thought "hmm maybe Duran will be a good bet". Then I watched video on both guys and had no clue what Hammersmith was talking about. I wouldn't even bet on Duran when he opened at +200 yesterday. Then again, I am not confident enough to bet Mizugaki

[SPX]

I can't give a counter-argument, other than "liar liar pants on fire."

LOL

It sounds like something Rios would have written, it does not reflect reality, at least as I see it.

Hammersmith.

Where that guys sees "Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game", I see a heavy handed brawler with no wrestling and a low level positional game with a tight guillotine choke. I specifically looked into his gym and trainers, and I see no indication that he is above a blue belt level on the ground.

Where he sees "Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin," I see solid posture and submission defense a very solid chin. He when has he been KO'd? I don't see any indication of a chin problem in Mizugaki at all.

Aside from that whatever Duran has done, he has accomplished over complete tomato cans. Duran does appear to have heavy hands though. Mizugaki has been fighting the very best BWs in the whole wide world (Faber, Torres, Jorgenson, Yahya, and Curran are his last five fights) and he has not looked too bad. Although he got his back taken by Faber, he was actually winning the fight up to that point (I specifically recall because I bet on Faber). If Jason Reinhardt has taught us anything, it is that competition level makes difference.

Mizugaki stood with Torres and rolled with Yahya. I think he can survive whatever Reuben Duran throws at him.

But really, the biggest reason I think Mizugaki will take this is wrestling. Mizugaki should get him down and pound on him.

Thanks for the insight. Lots of good info there.

And I agree about Miz's competition. He definitely has not been handed any gimme fights. It's kind of fucked up when your FIRST fight in the WEC is against Torres when he was champ.

The Curran win was extremely close and could've gone either way. He might have even beaten Jorgensen if he hadn't gotten clocked in the first round, considering he came back to win the third. The Yahya win was decisive.

All of that said, just because he has been can crushing does not mean he cannot beat better guys.

That's true, too. Sometimes it's really difficult to know.

[SPX]

SPX, I read your boyfriend Mike Hammersmith's analysis on the Mizugaki fight as well, and thought "hmm maybe Duran will be a good bet". Then I watched video on both guys and had no clue what Hammersmith was talking about. I wouldn't even bet on Duran when he opened at +200 yesterday. Then again, I am not confident enough to bet Mizugaki

Indeed. Thanks for the insight.

I'm going to go watch some stuff later tonight. I'll check back in with some thoughts of my own.

[MMA_scientist]

OFF TOPIC: How many draws do you guys remember seeing in the last 12 months? Penn/Fitch, Edgar/Maynard, Kongo/Browne- any others?

I ask, because the draw option is almost always +4000 or more. I think the draw option might be a + EV value bet, overall. Don't tell anyone.

With judges becoming more an more concerned with their inability to properly score, the draw bets might be seriously + EV over the course of 12 months.

[MMA_scientist]

OK did some quick research, since UFC 120 (09/2010) there have been 4 draws. The 3 I mentioned and Bongfelt/Natal at 121.

I think I might have something here. Stay tuned.

[edman5555]

What do you guys think of Damacio Page and Brian Bowles?

[MMA_scientist]

OK.

I went back to September 2008. There have been 6 draws in the UFC in the last 2.5 years: Maynard/Edgar, Penn/Fitch, Bongfelt/Natal, Kongo/Browne, Uno/Camoes, and Lentz/Tavares.

Of those 6 draws 4 of them have occured in the last 6 months.

The lines (I am guessing) average around +4000 for the draw. 10 fights per card. There has been 55 cards (39 UFCs, 11 UFN, 5 TUF). 550 fights.

550/ 6 = 1 draw for every 110 fights. So you would need +11000 on the draw option to have broken even.

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.


So, nevermind.

[MMA_scientist]

What do you guys think of Damacio Page and Brian Bowles?

I think Bowles will win (again), but Page has the value.

[edman5555]

I just watched that Reuban Duran highlight video. He looks like he is fast and can hit very hard.

[Svino]

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.

So, nevermind.

On the other hand, if you already have weighted bets on both guys to win by decision because you're confident it will go the distance and the judges are fucking crazy, betting the draw is a pretty important hedge to make.


(goddammitsomuch)