Ufn 24

[MMA_scientist]

been looking at Russow/Madsen... I don't like that bet FWIW. Madsen will probably win, but Russow's wrestling is just as good as Madsen's. And since they are HW's takedowns are even more difficult. They have trained together as well, both are members of Lesnar's camp...

It is probably going to come down to cardio and striking/clinching. I think Madsen is more powerful and will win, but I don't like it at those odds. I would put Madsen at like -170.

[MMA_scientist]

Looked at Lentz/Lowe... I think there is a good chance that Lowe puts him on his back at least a few times. Lentz was a D1 wrester, but he never actually started- Lowe's wrestling credentials are impressive and he has the stocky frame to get takedowns in MMA. He also has gotten the better of the striking in his 2 UFC wins... Lentz is a better all around grappler and should have better cardio though. But Lentz is probably going to have to either put Lowe down or stuff him a lot to win. No way I would bet at current line, maybe even take Lowe.

[MMA_scientist]

The only thing I see is the MAckens bet. Mackens is on a 3 fight losing streak, but he has been game in all 3 of those fights against tough guys. Javi caught him, but his fight with Cub Swanson was close and his fight with Tauro was close. I just don't see way Caceres can offer him. He can probably put Caceres on his back any time he wants, but I think he will have s striking edge as well. Also, Caceres is coming off an injury, has never fought on a big stage.

thoughts?

[trotterz]

been looking at Russow/Madsen... I don't like that bet FWIW. Madsen will probably win, but Russow's wrestling is just as good as Madsen's. And since they are HW's takedowns are even more difficult. They have trained together as well, both are members of Lesnar's camp...

It is probably going to come down to cardio and striking/clinching. I think Madsen is more powerful and will win, but I don't like it at those odds. I would put Madsen at like -170.

Exactly what I said earlier on this thread, Russow is also a really good wrestler. IMO the line will get even higher so I think that I will be able to play russow at something around +300 which I would be happy with

[MMA_scientist]

^ yeah, my only problem is that I don't know what kind of actual offense Russow has, other than top position submissions... he has beaten some pretty good guys with submissions. But if it stays upright or he gets put down, how is he going to win? The Duffee punch was a fluke, I don't think he has ever dropped anyone else.

Madsen doesn't have great hands either, but IMO he is more likely to be on top and we have at least seen him win a fight standing before (he beat Wren without taking it down). I actually think this fight is going to look a lot like the Wren fight. FWIW, Sherdog scored the fight for Wren.

[poopoo333]

Madsen beat Al Turk in a pure striking match as well.

As for the Lentz/Lowe fight, I see round 1 being close with Lentz taking over in the later rounds. Lowe got tired against Lopez and Freire, he was basically dominated in round 3 against Freire. Lentz was able to keep up with Griffin in the grappling department, and when he got taken down he usually got right back up, or reversed and got on top of Griffin. He was also able to take Griffin down and keep him there for periods of time. I like Lentz to win for sure

[poopoo333]

Why so confident in Morecraft? I was impressed with his ability to dominate Struve for a round, but he still got brutally TKOd in his only UFC fight.

Seems to be like this fight should be a pick 'em, or maybe Morecraft should be like -130 at the highest.

I am confident in McCorkle gassing more then Morecraft beating McCorkle. McCorkle gassed HARD against Struve from taking Struve down, and trying a kimura (I think it was a kimura). He got swept by a sweep white belts learn in BJJ in their first class effortlessly. If Morecraft pushes the pace and makes McCorkle actually fight, McCorkle is going to go into cardiac arrest again, but worse. Maybe McCorkle will take Morecraft down in round 1 and win the round, but he will be fucked after that. Morecraft doesn't seem to have conditioning issues, as he basically dominated and didn't stop punching Struve in the face 5 minutes straight, so I doubt being defensive on the ground for any period of time is going to gas him.


So basically, my strategy is to fade McCorkle again and go the other way like I did at UFC 124. I kinda feel bad because McCorkle seems like a cool/funny guy...but he kind of just sucks and shouldn't be in the UFC imo

[MMA_scientist]

Madsen should win, but I am just not willing to bet that he can outstrike Russow, which is where I see the fight going down. Russow took a beating from Duffee and stayed in there. I am not willing to pay 2.5:1 for the opportunity to bet Madsen in a kickboxing match.

As for Lentz, that is pretty much how I see it... but again, you are banking on Lowe gassing. He probably will, especially with how hard Lentz is going to make him work. But Lowe's striking and wrestling are as good as Lentz's in my opinion. That said, Lentz is 11-0 since 2007, and he has been fighting good guys. So he has a clear edge.

[MMA_scientist]

I am confident in McCorkle gassing more then Morecraft beating McCorkle.

hopefully they offer a distance prop.

[poopoo333]

Even if Lowe weren't to gas, I still think Lentz has the edge in the grappling from what I've seen. He looked pretty impressive against Griffin imo although I don't think he really deserved the win

[edman5555]

I think Aaron has a good shot at keeping it standing. I don't know how big the sub threat is on the ground. Aarons loss to Leben makes me question his standup. His fight against Munoz was pretty close in my opinion, Munoz won that by a very small margin. I give the edge to Aaron but I think it's hard to call this one.

Mackens was also the first fight to pop out at me. I don't think Bruce Leeroy is all that good. Mackens is a good wrestler + brown belt in BJJ + big show experience should equal WIN. Though I could get clementi'd on this so I won't bet too big.

I also get the feeling that Madsen is going to be very good Scientist. I think he should steamroll Russow.

Nik Lentz is pretty solid and if his opponent is really a gasser he should have problems with Lentz because he is a guy that makes fighters work.

Hathaway should win. I think he is really good but I get this eerie feeling that Mccray might be able to take him down. I get the same eerie feeling about Demarques landing takedowns on Amir. Though I also think Amir is really good at what he does.

I don't know who the hell Figuero is but he is brazilian so he can probably kick someones ass.

Hardy Johnson is tough to call.

Phil should win but Little Nog is really good and Phil is really new.

I think Morecraft beats Mccorkle.

I am not touching Garcia/Zombie with a ten foot pole.

[edman5555]

Figuero might not be Brazilian. I just assumed that for some reason.

[poopoo333]

I don't know who the hell Figuero is but he is brazilian so he can probably kick someones ass.

This made me lol

[edman5555]

A little heads up. Justin Wren was only Madsens fourth fight, since then he has handled some experienced dudes. Russow doesn't really look that good to me but he has done well. I don't know.

[Mr. IWS]

A little heads up. Justin Wren was only Madsens fourth fight, since then he has handled some experienced dudes. Russow doesn't really look that good to me but he has done well. I don't know.

Russow has Mir's horseshoe up his ass now it seems.