2011 Off topic thread(basketball,movies,etc whatever)

[MMA_scientist]

I bet a lot of favorites. Everyone always talks about the huge hit when you lose... I don't understand that. Just because the line is -400, doesn't mean you have to bet more. Just bet to win less.

[SPX]

I generally try to bet to at least win one unit and at -400, if I lose 4u that's almost 10% of my bankroll.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, what I am saying, is if you think losing 4u will make you uncomfortable, bet 2u to win .5u. Half a unit adds up. If you won half a unit on every event in 2011 so far, you would be up over 100u, tripled your bankroll.

[SPX]

Yeah, but 1 unit adds up even more. So you may lose less when you lose, but you win less when you win.

[MMA_scientist]

yep. My point is that a lot of people talk about losing sooo much when the bet a favorite. Just bet less if you aren't comfortable with the amount of risk to your bankroll.

[Vandelay]

Yeah, but 1 unit adds up even more. So you may lose less when you lose, but you win less when you win.

Lol. the thinking of a common gambler.

[SPX]

Lol. the thinking of a common gambler.

Well it's common sense. Are we in this to make money or not?

I'm playing with a $20 unit. Half a unit's not going to get me very far.

[SPX]

yep. My point is that a lot of people talk about losing sooo much when the bet a favorite. Just bet less if you aren't comfortable with the amount of risk to your bankroll.

I think the real problem is that if you always bet to win 1u and lose a -300 favorite then you have to win three straight bets just to get back to even, four to get ahead. That's hard to stomach.

[MMA_scientist]

I think the real problem is that if you always bet to win 1u and lose a -300 favorite then you have to win three straight bets just to get back to even, four to get ahead. That's hard to stomach.

I guess. For me that doesn't seem so bad... I think I lose far fewer than 1/4 -300 bets. Probably more like 1/7 or 1/8. I haven't looked at it in a while, but to me having to win 3 to get even doesn't seem too bad.

[Vandelay]

Yea i was thinking more like 100 dollars for a unit. I wouldnt be able to stick to 20 dollars a bet. Just wouldnt be worth the time spent, but thats just me.

[SPX]

Yeah, I mean at this level it's basically just a hobby. I made about $160 for the entire year in 2010. Right now I'm about $100 ahead, but that's always subject to change.

I was just telling Luke the other day that I want to be playing with a 100 dollar unit, but if I'm going to stick with my guideline of a 50u bankroll, I need like $5000, and I don't have that. When I first started, I was hoping for more rapid success, like doubling my bankroll every year, but that's obviously not happening.

I've thought about switching to a 20 unit bankroll and either getting ahead or going down in flames. I still might do that. Or maybe go to a 30 unit bankroll. It's clear that I'm going to have to get more aggressive, because at this rate I'll reach my goal in a few decades.

[Svino]

I used to do what I call "fixed swing" betting. Instead of betting to win X or to risk X units, bet so that the difference between your bankroll if you win and your bankroll if you lose is a fixed value.

To do this, you bet a constant times the implied winning percentage of your bet. So like for a "fixed swing" of 4 units you would bet one unit (4*.25) to win 3 on a +300 guy, but 2 units (4*.5) to win 2 on a +EV fighter.

[SPX]

Why did you stop?

[Svino]

Why did you stop?

Honestly, part of it was laziness and a random preference for dealing with round numbers. But also, I stopped when I started putting a lot more emphasis on my own feeling of certainty about a bet and betting more or less accordingly.


Edit: and also, what I do is often still fairly close to a rounded-off version of fixed-swing anyway.

[Svino]

I don't know how people think they can beat the NFL/MLB/NBA.

Most people that can beat those sports do it by developing a good statistical model that they test against a big database of past years' results.

I'm really impressed at the success of some of the bettors in the football section of this board, especially Zak, who's done it over a few hundred bets (current losing streak or no).