UFC 129 toronto GSP-Shields

[MMA_scientist]

went ahead and put 2u on Ellenberger @ -210.

I looked at the Pierson/Riddle fight... Riddle was stupidly trying to stand with him most of the time. Ellenberger's wrestling is wat beyond Riddle's and he generally takes the fight where he needs to win (grounding Howard). Pierson landed some shots on Riddle, but really only hurt him a little. Ellenberger has been in there with some dangerous strikers and managed pretty well... he may even be able to stand with Pierson. All that said, Pierson looks solid too and this is by no means a lock. And I may change my mind upon further review.

[edman5555]

according to wiki Piersons style is greco roman wrestling. Any idea how good he is with that?

[MMA_scientist]

^^ damnit. This is what happens.

According to his Bellator bio, he is a national wrestling champion in Canada. That doesn't mean anything by itself though... he did stuff Riddle a few times.

I looked at the Canadian National Wrestling Championships results. He never won, unless it was as a little kid. He did get second in University and 4th in Seniors (those are wrestling age groupings).

Bottom line, there is no way to tell how his wrestling is going to stack up with Ellenberger's based on credentials. I looked at some vids: he did get taken down by Bonfeldt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5tkEY_YOUI


guess I am going to hedge out, I do feel that Ellenberger will win though. I am going to wait though because I think the line will get better. Hates self.

[zY|]

They're improving with every fight? Can you provide statistical data for this.

LOL do I need to? I had thought it was fairly obvious.

[SPX]

LOL do I need to? I had thought it was fairly obvious.

Maybe Nick, but you'd have to sell me on this idea of Nate literally improving every fight. All I know is that he went from subbing Gray Maynard and Kurt Pellegrino to losing to Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, and Gray Maynard.

And who has he beat in the middle? Melvin Guillard, Marcus Davis, and Rory Markham.

If anything the nigga's DE-improving with every fight.

[zY|]

That's your response? A lazy scroll through the fightfinder yet you expect me to provide graphs and statistics?

[SPX]

Well you said it was "obvious." I'm just trying to figure out how that's the case, because any cursory review of the evidence points to the contrary.

And besides, you made the statement so the burden of proof is on you, not me.

[poopoo333]

Diaz/Macdonald to go distance @-145...i bet it

[Luke]

Diaz/Macdonald to go distance @-145...i bet it

oh Rlly?

[poopoo333]

All five UFC 129 preliminary-card fights to stream on Facebook

[poopoo333]

Scientist,any possible prop parlays? They are all out. I was going to do Not Shields by (T)KO, Not Hominick by sub, Not Couture by (T)KO and Not Bocek by (T)KO but it would have been 5u to win 0.5u so I didn't go through with it

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist,any possible prop parlays? They are all out. I was going to do Not Shields by (T)KO, Not Hominick by sub, Not Couture by (T)KO and Not Bocek by (T)KO but it would have been 5u to win 0.5u so I didn't go through with it

I am still looking at it... I was hpoing some more props woould come out for the undercard. They only have props on 4 fights, they usually have 5 fights. "Not Machida by submission" and "Not Hominick by submission" I feel fine about... I don't really like to do the TKO props, because of early stoppages and just volume stoppages. Like what if Bocek gets mount or bank mount and just keeps raining down shots (which I think is a very real possibility), same with Couture.

But I probably going to do one, for a few units, a little higher risk than usual because I can't find anything for a magic parlay that is a guanteed winner. I mean "not Daley by submission" against Diaz- those are the kinds of things I like to see for my 12u bets. Machida won't submit Couture, that is tight. I doubt Hominick submits Aldo, but Hominick does have a triangle...

I am going to have to get creative. We got time though. Gimme some ideas. How about Not Shields in rd 5? I am staying away from Henderson/Bocek... there is no result that would surprise me there.

[MMA_scientist]

The more I think about this fight, the more I think GSP is going to win with relative ease. I mean, Shields has only one path to victory, he has to get the guy with the best takedown defense in the world down and keep him there for 5 rounds. GSP may try to keep it standing, but if Shields is just keeping him on the fence, GSP can always just change the gameplan and put Shields down. GSP may have some trouble putting him away but I can't see how Shields wins this.

[poopoo333]

How about Not Shields in rd 5?

I looked at that too actually. I think that is a good one to include for sure

[Mr. IWS]

The more I think about this fight, the more I think GSP is going to win with relative ease. I mean, Shields has only one path to victory, he has to get the guy with the best takedown defense in the world down and keep him there for 5 rounds. GSP may try to keep it standing, but if Shields is just keeping him on the fence, GSP can always just change the gameplan and put Shields down. GSP may have some trouble putting him away but I can't see how Shields wins this.

I saw this fight before. It was called GSP/Fitch

This is how I see the fight going as well.