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Also..I am kind of worried Pierson is going to come in way improved and better conditioned. I guess he is training full time now with a real camp, while Ellenberger took this fight a week ago. BUT this article kind of makes me less worried about the short notice thing:
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Here is my concern on that fight, Menjivar's takedown defense is not good and Valencia is a very good wrestler. He doesn't always use it, but he can probably take Ivan down any time he wants. Pickett put him down any time he was in trouble. Valencia has really only lost to very good fighters. The same is true for Menjivar though... I also favor Ivan because he has better finishing ability, but I think it is close. I would be surprised if he is more than -1702012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Not really no. If I remember correctly he took his first UFC fight with condit on short notice and nearly beat him and he had pretty good gas in that fight. Maybe it's the fact that I've made $$$ off his last three wins but he seems to continually not get the respect he deserves. That said I don't know enough about pierson so I might stay away.
As far as Shields Miller I gave the first round to miller who finished strong. Had two huge takedowns and finished the round on top. I think Shields had a bit more control as Miller didn't take over until around 2 mins left or so but I think that was a clear miller round. I don't remember the rest of the rounds enough though. Going to rewatch it. I definitely remember being suprised by Miller being able to take jake down. Given how GSP dismantled Miller and Shields struggled with him its hard not to dump on GSP.Comment
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Been a while since I've seen the fight, but of the three Sherdog judges one gave Miller the first round and all three gave Miller the third.
Also, the official scores were 48-47, 49-46 and 49-46 so apparently the official judges also agreed that Shields did not win every round.I heart cockComment
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Alright just rewatched Miller vs Shields.
Miller won round one with more damage and 2 big takedowns though you could make a possible argument for Shields from control. It was relatively close. The last two minutes were all miller which is why I gave him the round.
Second was a blowout for Shields.
Third had the near finish for Miller, which is one of the only reasons to give him the round. I scored it 10 9 for shields but miller did the only damage with the choke for the most part.
Fourth and Fifth were clear shields rounds.
Miller got several takedowns. Most notably a big double leg slam and a suplex on Shields in the first. The thing I really took away from the fight is Shields has a great double leg to single leg transition. Miller couldn't seem to stay on his feet when Shields would switch to the single leg. Shields also has some of the worst GNP in the sport. He's definitely a john fitch style grinder who lacks explosiveness. Considering this fight was in late 2009 it really has given me more confidence in GSP's ability to win the fight. It's great he's training with Sonnen but in 2 years he's going to go from getting slammed by Mayhem to taking GSP down at will? Shields was getting tagged on the feet and didn't land one single good punch or kick on the feet that I saw, Miller just lacked the wrestling to make it more competitive of a fight.Comment
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I think Miller deserved to win the third if for no other reason that if hadn't been for what was basically a technicality (he was about 10 seconds too late getting that choke locked in) he would've won the whole fight, and not just won but stopped Shields, and not just stopped him beat him at his own game by subbing him!I heart cockComment
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I'm seriously debating now dumping the max bet for my book on GSP. It would be 1/3rd of my bankroll but Shields did not look good against Miller that's for sure. He's got a great passing game and good control but his standup is awful and his defensive wrestling isn't all that great. Miller is a gamer though. Another thing I took away is it's not guaranteed insta death if GSP does get taken down and his guard passed. Miller survived on the ground without taking much damage at all and was mounted, back mounted and in side control for a good portion of the fight. I think unless GSP panics if Shields takes his back and gives up his neck he's going to tear through shields. Outside of that or locking up a guillotine GSP wins 90% of the time.
Thats my breakdown anyways.Comment
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Fuck Jake Shields!
You hear that, everybody?
FUCK. JAKE. SHIELDS.I heart cockComment
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Yeah GSP is probably going to win. Machida/Aldo/GSP parlay is a lock.
heheComment
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