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This. Jacare would turn him into a pretzel on the ground but Lawlers sprawl is going to present him with problems, and for all we know Robbie could catch him early and win because he starts very fast whereas Souza likes to feel things out for a little bit. I definitely like Jacare to win, no doubt about it. I just don't like -260 when it's nowhere near that lopsided.
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2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u -
I bet Roger for a few reasons. I am an action junkie for one. Also there are a few things about Prangley that make me think Roger can beat him. He is similar to Kevin Randleman in a lot of ways: height, age, wrestling background. He has also never really beaten anyone that good. I was weighing his win over Jardine a little too much before. He's getting old and he was never that good to begin with. His base is wrestling which is more or less a form of grappling and Rogers the best grappler in the world. Also how is Prangley going to push the action standing? He has to get inside to connect..if he commits to hard he could end up on the ground. That should make it easier for Roger to outpoint him. If it goes to the ground at all there is a very good chance he gets subbed or at least controlled for the remainder of the round(helps with points).
Another thing I noticed was Roger has actually been competing in MMA since 2006. He is obv green but he might have a little more knowledge than he would if he had all three of his fights in 1 year.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I think the value in the Jacare fight is probably Lawler via (T)KO @+320 or whatever it is.Comment
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Also Herschel Walker looks like a good bet. This guy Carson fought 3 times about 10 years ago. Then he came back recently and got knocked out. Herschel is a pro athlete, this guy shouldn't be on his level. Also you've gotta think they are giving Herschel guys they think he can beat. I know anything can happen in there but he looked ok in his last outing and he does not seem one bit 48 years old.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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^^I kind of regret the bet already. I think Coy's fight with Woodley influenced my decision too muchComment
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He did do very well against Woodley. He was beating him in the standup.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I had money on Coy in that fight. It was very very close. I can't really say who I think will win or lose because I don't know much about Nate except he is a good wrestler and he trains at AKA.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I pretty much agree on all parts. Do you guys think Gracie will be able to take Prangley down? Gracie never really actually took Randleman down, he dropped him with a knee. It's hard to pass up a bet on Gracie @-135 though...he is so dominant in grappling. I am just worried he is going to get bombed out on the feet, or be unable to get Prangley down at all.Comment
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Well I don't think he absolutely has to take him down to win. He did drop Randleman with a knee, outside of that he was outpointing him on the feet. He may be able to do that to Prangley, I consider the standup a toss up now that I think about it. Prangley has exp, but Roger has reach. Prangley has to be worried about committing because he can't let Roger get ahold of him. He also can't just sit on the outside or he will get outstruck by Rogers big ass reach. It's a tough fight to call which is why I am not making a large bet on it.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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^ i do not think Roger will be able to get him down easily, but I think he will get it there eventually, either by Prangley overestimating his ability to control Roger or by frustration with Roger's reach. Prangley's wrestling is not on Randleman's level though, fwiw. He was an AA, but he was never a wrestler like Randleman. Roger has good takedowns though, and he did take get Randleman down briefly in Rd. 1 IIRC.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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1 unit = 300 $Comment
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just out of curiosity, what did you see that made you pass?Originally posted by Luke
On one hand, Roger is slow and didn't land shit. On the other hand, he did not take a single shot in the entire fight (Mauro made a big deal about the body shot, but it didn't look that clean to me). Then as soon as Roger starting pushing forward on the feet, he started whupping on him. I am banking that Roger's striking is more like what we saw in rd 2 when he looked like he was actually going to fight...
I don't know. It is sort of a wild card, because there is not much to judge him on. I guess it is a fan bet from me honestly, though I do think he will win. I guess the fact that I think Prangley might be worth a bet probably means I should have passed too...2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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From what I heard/read I had the thought in my head that Roger just dominated Randleman in the fight (I had never seen the fight before because thats when I was in Vegas so I was just going off what I had read) When I actually saw the fight I wasnt as impressed as I thought I was going to be . Roger's striking is a little worse than I expected and I was expecting to see him takedown Randleman and submit him and he didnt take him down it was a knee that put him to the floor.If he had taken Randleman down and submitted him there wouldnt be much doubt he could do the same to Prangley. I still expect Roger to win and he may do so easily but I'd rather just sit and watch .I'm trying to be more picky about what I bet2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
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wild card is correct. It's been 8.5 months since Rogers last fight so let's hope he has spent that time improving.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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