Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg - Jan 29th

[edman5555]

edman, I have always had trouble losing. I hate losing bets. It is why I could never make any money playing poker either, I would make the "right" play and some donk would draw out and beat me. i would go on tilt and raise the stakes. The swings were too much for my demeanor. I liked MMA betting because I used to virtually never lose. But I bet much less frequently when I first started, I would just wait for the right bet. Now, I feel like I have to have action on every card or I am missing an opportunity.

I know how you feel with the action on every card thing. Honestly I just need something else to take away some of my energy. What I might end up doing is placing like 25 percent of my bankrol lon Jon Jones and 25 percent on Cerrone. Something crazy like that. I also think Forrest is a good bet.

[edman5555]

MB had fought like 3 weeks before. Maybe he was overworked. There are always going to be variables like that though. It kinda sucks. How was I supposed to know Clementi would act like a jackass? He didn't think he could lose, he lost because of that.

[MMA_scientist]

MB had fought like 3 weeks before. Maybe he was overworked. There are always going to be variables like that though. It kinda sucks. How was I supposed to know Clementi would act like a jackass? He didn't think he could lose, he lost because of that.

That is what I am saying... I thought I had everything covered for the MTB fight. There are too many variables. Of course it works both ways (sometimes the other guy is going to suck for some unknown reason) but it won't happen 4x as often just because he is an underdog. Which is an actual logical reason not to pay for favorites (the information is not complete, and that affects both sides equally).

[Svino]

It's certainly true that the less information I have, the less willing I am to bet a favorite.

[edman5555]

Yeah. It might be smarter to stick to bets at close to even. It's almost not worth it to bet -300 sometimes. You can end up getting Clementi'd. At -300 we have to win 4 bets for every 1 we lose in order to make a profit. I feel like it's doable but kinda hard.

[edman5555]

On the other hand its hard to pass up a bet on a fight where I feel like one guys going to crush the other. Maybe I just need to do a lot of research and be patient. Every now and then an opp like Mark Hominick over George Roop will come along. I had good info on that one.

[Luke]

Luke the issue I am having is a lot like yours lately. I still feel I correctly handicap most of the fights. So I think I am actually pretty good at "seeing" fights and handicapping, but lately, I am just making the wrong bets. Then afterward, I usually see where I made a mistake, but it is always something I failed to consider. I am starting to think that the variables are too great, that there are just too many variables to pin down a fight with any accuracy. I suppose the way around that is to never pay a price to bet, ie no favorites. But that is a long slow arduous trek.

I'm doing the samething in MMA lately,I handicap 4 of the 6 fights correctly but bet the 2 that lose. If I were smart I'd just bet all 6 fights and take my +2 units for the night but I'm so afraid that if I do bet 6 fights in one night that will be the night I go 0-6 and that could send even me into a spiraling kamikaze binge(truthfully) . I can handle an 0-2 or 0-3 night if I correctly picked 2 or 3 fights .This is in MMA though something I've only bet for 2 years and have no confidence in. If this were boxing and I liked 6 fights I'd bet them all in a heart beat because I'm know I'd hit 3-4 of the 6.

Trust me the variables arent too great to win we just havent bet MMA long enough to learn everything .I've bet boxing for 10 years and I'm still learning little things .Do I still miss big things like I do in MMA? not very often but that comes with the experience . I ended 2010 about 13 units in the hole and I won 12 off boxing ,so I really lost 25 units in MMA .I'm not ready to give up because I know I will get better at betting MMA just like I did betting boxing and so will the rest of us if we just keep working on it and dont give up.

I might be the worst here at betting MMA and I'm not even close to giving up yet . Yes its a long slow road but so is learning anything else.

[Svino]

On the other hand its hard to pass up a bet on a fight where I feel like one guys going to crush the other. Maybe I just need to do a lot of research and be patient.

Yeah, I think this is the right idea. Favorites can be profitable, you just need to be more cautious. With underdogs, you can often get away with doing just a little research, thinking "This looks about even; I don't see the justification for these lopsided odds" and then betting the dog.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ probably right. What it boils down to is that I am betting too many fights. I need to stick to fights I feel strongly about, at least with regard to the favorites.

Edman, winning 3:1 is not difficult, in fact I have done it for a couple years now. I just need to be more careful about my big favorites, and go ahead and pull the trigger on my dogs.

Good talk.

[poopoo333]

yep, good talk.


NOW LET'S GO FUCK UFC 126 RIGHT IN IT'S TIGHT LITTLE ASSHOLE!!

READY...BREAK!

[edman5555]

I'm doing the samething in MMA lately,I handicap 4 of the 6 fights correctly but bet the 2 that lose. If I were smart I'd just bet all 6 fights and take my +2 units for the night but I'm so afraid that if I do bet 6 fights in one night that will be the night I go 0-6 and that could send even me into a spiraling kamikaze binge(truthfully) . I can handle an 0-2 or 0-3 night if I correctly picked 2 or 3 fights .This is in MMA though something I've only bet for 2 years and have no confidence in. If this were boxing and I liked 6 fights I'd bet them all in a heart beat because I'm know I'd hit 3-4 of the 6.

Trust me the variables arent too great to win we just havent bet MMA long enough to learn everything .I've bet boxing for 10 years and I'm still learning little things .Do I still miss big things like I do in MMA? not very often but that comes with the experience . I ended 2010 about 13 units in the whole and I won 12 off boxing ,so I really lost 25 units in MMA .I'm not ready to give up because I know I will get better at betting MMA just like I did betting boxing and so will the rest of us if we just keep working on it and dont give up.

I might be the worst here at betting MMA and I'm not even close to giving up yet . Yes its a long slow road but so is learning anything else.

Up 12 units isn't bad I guess. It's a better return than you will get with a stock broker. My only problem is my bankroll is only about 2k so if I come ahead 500 bucks for the year I am making like 50 cents an hour to do this. I might as well get a part time job at night, I can def make more doing that. I myself wonder how big you can get with these costa rican bookies..if any of us were ever really making 10k orr 20k a year doing this wouldn't you think they would stop letting us bet with them? I've heard people tell me about things like that happening. If I had reason to believe the government was going to legalize sports betting I would feel better about this in some ways. If that were to happen that would mean millions of people would be betting. Most of them wouldn't research anything either, so they would bet on guys that they should not be betting on. That would let guys like us take advantage of the line movement. As it stands now it is hard because the bookies are pretty smart. They know who should be favored most of the time.

What do you guys think about the whole legalizing thing? I read Barne Frank was working on it but I don't hear much anymore. A lot of it might depend on whether its republicans or democrats in charge. The Republicans usually seem like they want to stop betting. They went after online poker didn't they?

[Svino]

What do you guys think about the whole legalizing thing? I read Barne Frank was working on it but I don't hear much anymore. A lot of it might depend on whether its republicans or democrats in charge. The Republicans usually seem like they want to stop betting. They went after online poker didn't they?

I'm not sure if Frank's bill included sports betting or not (it definitely included poker). In any case, it didn't pass before the end of the last session, so it's dead. Reid had an effort that failed also. It may be a while before someone tries again, especially since as you point out, Republicans are generally against it.

[zY|]

Honestly I gave up a long time ago.

I feel I have solid insight and analysis, but I'm way too lazy and don't give enough of a shit to do the research required, keep records, size a bankroll, etc., as sad as that sounds. I'll still hop on the fights I feel I have a good handle on (ie: some main events/high profile), but I really just don't care enough.

[Luke]

I shouldnt have typed anything and just posted this

[Luke]

and this: