Ufc 130

[SPX]

I think Rampage will win. I think this fight might be a lot of clinch work against the cage, but I don't see Hamill taking Rampage down like Rashad did...I think Rashad's speed/explosiveness was a deciding factor in that fight with the TDs and I don't think Hamill will duplicate it. Not sure if I am going to bet it though, I don't really like the line.

My thought is that Rampage isn't even hardly a wrestler anymore, and while Tito is clearly past his prime he is still decent, and Hamill was able to land takedowns on Tito at will.

It's been awhile..did Kongo ever get the TD against Browne or was it just a lot of clinching against the fence?

It was the other way around. 90% of the fight was on the feet, but Browne did get Kongo down twice from what I remember.

[poopoo333]

Roy Nelson looks like he has lost some weight fwiw.

[edman5555]

I think Rampage beats Hamill but if your going to be on him SPX, go Hamil decision. I don't see him winning any other way.

Mir dropped Kongo, Crop cop and Big nog with punches. That is pretty impressive IMO. Especially the CC and Kongo shots. I think he will be the better striker. I don't know who wins the wrestling though. I would think Nelson would gas if they wrestled a lot but who knows. Frank Mir has to be the more well conditioned athlete. I feel like Big countries fat belly/bad diet is going to catch up with him in the cage. He did stay in there with JDS though so who knows. Frank will probably have a hard time ko'ing him or subbing him so maybe this is another situation where a decision prop is worthwhile. Big country does have some power in his hands though and Frank has been dropped before. It is at plus odds to go the distance. Anyways, my best guess is Mir by decision.

[poopoo333]

I think Rampage will win. I think this fight might be a lot of clinch work against the cage, but I don't see Hamill taking Rampage down like Rashad did...I think Rashad's speed/explosiveness was a deciding factor in that fight with the TDs and I don't think Hamill will duplicate it. Not sure if I am going to bet it though, I don't really like the line.

Not sure about Browne/Struve. At first I thought Browne had a good chance of blitzing Struve in round 1 and KTFOing him. But I'm not sure. I will probably not bet it unless one of them is like +150. We haven't seen Browne's ground game yet. It's been awhile..did Kongo ever get the TD against Browne or was it just a lot of clinching against the fence?

Not sure about Mir/Nelson. My gut tells me Mir though. I want to watch some video and stuff first but I think Mir will either win the striking exchanges or this fight will be a lot of clinching against the fence. I think Mir is the better striker then Nelson though.

Torres will probably beat Johnson but I am rooting for Mighty Mouse. If Mighty Mouse is +275 or better I will bet him.

Kendall Grove should win imo. Tim Boetsch looked so bad against Todd Brown. Grove will probably be way quicker and will beat Boetsch to the punch. And who knows how Boetsch will handle his first cut to 185? He is a pretty stocky 205 IIRC

[SPX]

Your thoughts on. . .?

QJ/Hamill: I'm thinking that on the feet QJ should be the clear winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the standup is closer than expected. I could also see Hamill taking Rampage down and winning via wrestling. But even though I think Hamill has a better chance than it looks on paper, I still have the feeling Rampage will win and am reluctant to but him. If Hamill got up to +250 I think I'd make a play, but right now I don't really like the line on either guy.

Struve/Brown: Brown actually didn't look THAT bad against Kongo and he kept that fight a lot closer than I was comfortable with. I think I actually favor Browne here, though only by a small margin. I'd probably take him at -130 or better, but I expect him to come in as a dog so I will probably be on him.

Mir/Nelson: After a lot of thought, I think I'm actually leaning Nelson here. I think K-1 Mir will have better standup, but Nelson hits harder. And I think that on the ground Nelson will be able to win the wrestling war, end up on top, and avoid Mir's submission game. I will probably take Nelson if he drops to even or better.

Torres/Johnson: I could potentially see Johnson giving Torres some problems with his wrestling, but I think that at the end of the day it's obvious he's bitten off a little more than he can chew. Because Torres has had some problems with wrestlers in the past I don't think I'd want to take him at too high of a line, but if I could get him at -250 or better I'd probably make the bet. It's too bad he'll probably open at like -400.

Grove/Boetsch: I need to watch some tape on Boetsch before really taking a stance here, but off the top of my head I lean Grove. I think he can probably use his length pick Boetsch apart en route to a decision. I wouldn't take him at too high of a line, though. I'd be looking for something like -130.

What's everyone think? Give me some feedback here.