UFC 134 Rio de Janeiro Aug 27th

[edman5555]

Yeah Brazilians are pretty crazy. I assume they will be flying judges and refs in though. Big Nog is a lot more experienced than Schaub as well, and yes your right, he will fight to the death in this one. I won't be bet Schaub. His line is kinda crazy as is. -200? I am not willing to pay that. For all we know, Nog could show up looking better than he has in years. He is having a lot of surgeries to correct past problems..IF it is a big success it could show in his performance..All the pics of him with a belly might not even matter. When are those from? A few weeks ago? He could be in decent enough shape by fight time. Tough one to call. No bet.

[MMA_scientist]

That is my main issue. These overseas card are always full of surprises. Abu Dhabi, Australia, and the first UK card were all horrible for me. I am not betting against Nog, especially in Brazil. I am not betting against Anderson either, even though Okami has the right tools and line. You think Americans are bad when they chant USA, Brazilians are fucking crazy. They will fist fight you if you talk bad about Brazil, and many of them won't even pick against another Brazilian. I have to assume that the guys fighting will die in that cage before they lose to an American in Brazil.

[poopoo333]

I am gonna end up betting big on Schaub. If Brazil has a good night and Nog and Shogun win, I am going to have a shitty night.

[edman5555]

exactly what i was thinking about the takedown. If nog gets his back or mount, Schaub is probably fucked. Anything else and he will be able to power up IMO.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Schaub may be able to get up some right off the takedown. But if he gets taken down and put into an inferior position, he won't be able to get up. It really depends how he gets down there and in what position. But yeah, Schaub is going to win, which pains me greatly.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, Nog was able to drag Herring down a lot @ UFC 73 and couldn't sub him. But then again Herring has only been subbed twice (once by Nog) in his 1,000 fights.

[edman5555]

Even if nog can get Schaub down, I would not be suprised if he cannot easily sub him. I think he could have to get into pretty good position to hold him down too. Schaub is a big powerful guy that can probably just stand up if he wants to.

[poopoo333]

If you are worried about, just bet on Schaub and hedge with Nog via submission. Sadly (very sadly) I think Nog is going down in flames here. I hold out hope though...

That's what I was thinking. I think I will bet Schaub soon. If his line really gets out of control and Nog becomes a big dog, that will make the "Nog by sub" line better.

[poopoo333]

Ludo...I think the blue print is to fight like how he did against Gonzaga as well. That was also over a year ago, and he is a prospect and only getting better.

Ed....IIRC I think Nog got Randy down by dropping him. I'll watch that fight again later.

[MMA_scientist]

If you are worried about, just bet on Schaub and hedge with Nog via submission. Sadly (very sadly) I think Nog is going down in flames here. I hold out hope though...

[edman5555]

Minotauro is also pushing his recovery to get on the Rio card. On the other hand I don't think his takedowns are that bad. I think he tripped Randy and took him down (IIRC which I may not). I know he reversed Randy on the ground, I remember that. Schaub should probably win though. Nogs only real chance to win is via sub IMO.

[Ludo]

I'm so convinced that Schaub will win that I am willing to put down a MAX BET on Schaub as long as someone else on IWS does it. Otherwise I will probably do half a max bet. Kthxbai.

If your looking to build a bankroll this is the kind of fight you want to go in on for sure. Minotauro has an out but guys with better takedowns have tried and failed at getting Schaub down to even begin to work for the out. Standing Schaub will probably pick him apart ala the Gonzaga fight. Working from outside with counters and kicks all night and there won't be a whole lot Rodrigo can do about it unless he finds a way to either drop Schaub or drag him down and keep him there.

My biggest question going into this fight is whether Minotauro's chin is shot at this point or if Cain really just hit him that hard with the combo. Personally I don't think his chin is Chuck Liddell bad just yet but it's the rest of his body at this point that is also in question. Surgeries, multiple injuries, staph infections galore and now he looks like he let himself go something awful during this layoff and it all kind of points to "disaster". I believe Minotauro might retire if he gets blown out here.

[Ludo]

I'm on Schaub to win a unit and I also have him in a parlay with Barboza. If his line keeps I may play for another half unit(pretty much My "max rule" on a single fighter having the sized roll I do). Minotauro isn't the guy to expose Schaubs not liking to be hit back or pressed. That kind of thing isn't going to happen unless he fights a Mitrione or Barry type fighter, over anyone else at that position in the division(mid tier 12-20 type ranking guys) because he is so fast. Minotauro's takedowns aren't great and he usually relies on pulling guard of getting followed to the ground when knocked down. I highly doubt Schaub goes anywhere near him if he's on his back.

[AC88]

I'm so convinced that Schaub will win that I am willing to put down a MAX BET on Schaub as long as someone else on IWS does it. Otherwise I will probably do half a max bet. Kthxbai.

[sideloaded]

-200 is a gift should be -350