UFC 139

[SPX]

Boom!

Just took Tibau at -165 for enough to win a unit.
Dropped .5u on Bonnar at +130.
And .25u a piece on Lawlor and Brilz at +275 and +300, respectively.

[poopoo333]

Sorry. :-(

It wasn't just you...it was the entire internet.

[SPX]

It wasn't just you...it was the entire internet.

Especially this damned place. . .

https://www.cross-stitching.com

[Ludo]

Bonnar is going to be the biggest LHW Kingsbury has fought, so he might not be able to bully him around like usual. That could be a factor. I originally really liked Kingsbury in this fight but my confidence in him has been shooting down

Even if he can get the clinch over and over Bonnar likes the clinch as well and would do the same thing if not more than Maldanado did. Kingsbury will slow down considerably if the fight goes into the second and third rounds at the pace Bonnar likes to push. When that happens Bonnar could really turn it up. Money on Bonnar.

[poopoo333]

Especially this damned place. . .

www.cross-stitching.com

Repped, bitch.

[Vandelay]

Even if he can get the clinch over and over Bonnar likes the clinch as well and would do the same thing if not more than Maldanado did. Kingsbury will slow down considerably if the fight goes into the second and third rounds at the pace Bonnar likes to push. When that happens Bonnar could really turn it up. Money on Bonnar.

Kinda how i see it goin as well. Doubt kingsbu finishes him. I think Bonnar can outgrapple him similar to how maldanado did. and all maldanado had was a guillotine.

[poopoo333]

[SPX]

Fuck him. War Bonnar

[sbjj]

Having a tough time with Kingsbury-Bonnar. On one hand I see a guy who is very flawed and just not that good(kingsbury). On the other hand I see a fighter who I think is decent, has a ton of heat, but is very inconsistant(Bonnar). Probably a no bet. But the guy with the + next to his name would seem the way to go.

I have a new philosophy. Anytime a guy is a decent favorite but has shown that he is inconsistant I will bet against him. i think Tibau falls into this category. I think Dos Anjos might be worth a look. But the line seems to be already moving. Same could be said about Castillo and Brown.

[edman5555]

A lot of decent dogs on this one. Bailey and brilz both have good shots.

[sbjj]

Faber-Torres parlay?

[poopoo333]

In an interview Wandy said the best way to fight Le would be to take it to the ground...so that might be his gameplan FWIW. If that is, and he can't get the sub or finish from the top, Wandy by decision +600 has value imo

[SPX]

Well at least he wants to fight smart.

Speaking of that fight, Le is now decidedly the favorite. I can't say I'm surprised, but I was hoping the situation would be reversed. At this point the fight is probably unbettable. Not seeing any value in either guy.

[poopoo333]

[MMABuddha]

I don't think Lawlor will win but he has a far better chance than the odds suggest. He's a good puncher with fast hands and he's proven to be able to knock around a really good wrestler in the past when he fought Simpson. Weidman lost the first round against Sakara, dumb judges aside. The only issue here is that lawlor is pretty much guaranteed to wilt in the second round as his cardio is weak and Weidman would probably be able to bully him around for the decision if not a late TKO/sub. Still, I think the hype on Weidman has caused that line to be fatter than it should be.

I really like the line on Story/Kampmann. Story has a really good chin, Kampmann has no power and backs up against aggressive strikers. He tends to fade under pressure and Story is one of the best pressure fighters in the division. I don't see him stopping the takedown, especially against a guy as mentally tough as Story. I'm really surprised is as close as it is.

A lot of question marks about Cung Le, as he's a solid striker and will probably be motivated for the fight considering that it's in his hometown (adopted or not) and his first chance to show his skills to a greater audience but I'm not sure about the level of his competition. Still, I'm confident because he does have power, is quick and agile and Wanderlei is D-O-N-E. This guy should not be fighting, his chin has been gone for awhile now. Also, Wanderlei won't be able to take him down, Le is actually a good wrestler. As a big fan of the Axe Murderer from his heyday this is sad to see but it is what it is.

I think Hendo will win but there are too many variables to scare me away from that fight (Shogun's injury woes and whether or not they're still there, five rounds, Hendo shitting the bed when you least expect him to because he has the same strategy for every fight, etc.)

I'd feel pretty comfortable betting on Story and Le at those lines though. We'll see how that turns out, since I have no actual money riding I kind of hope I'm wrong on the latter pick just because I'm tired of seeing Wanderlei get KTFO.