UFC on FOX

[Luke]

Thinking of the Kongo fight plus the layoff. Im stil not sold on Cain. Ill risk $100 if anyone wants to give me +150

I'll take the bet.

How you plan on getting me my money when JDS loses?

[Dr_Ngo]

Thinking about a small play on JDS at +158.

A year long layoff for Cain and shoulder surgery is really going to affect him. I also think JDS resume > Cain's. Cain's def still the favorite though, but at these odds JDS looks good.

[zY|]

Thinking of the Kongo fight plus the layoff. Im stil not sold on Cain. Ill risk $100 if anyone wants to give me +150

Look I'm not trying to argue (or maybe I am), but what do you mean 'the Kongo fight'? What I saw when I watched that fight was an absolute literal-middle-of-the-cage assraping and a 30-26 scorecard. I saw a guy get hit about as hard as you're gonna get hit, TWICE, walk right through it and continue the beatdown. I saw a dominating fight over a well-established veteran by an extremely young fighter. I saw a fight that was 2.5 years ago.

I'm also curious what you mean by 'not sold on him'. I mean, even if you think JDS is better, Cain is still miles ahead of everyone else in the rubbish HW division. Right?

If you just mean 'not sold on him about this fight', then disregard. I agree the layoff (and moreso the injury itself) is potentially troublesome.

[MMABuddha]

Bendo line might not be so great on the surface, but I see no way that Guida can win this fight. Horrible stylistic matchup for him, the fight should be more like -400 for Bendo, so I would bet heavily on him. I just can't see Guida winning, like at all.

[Thewisemann]

I'll take the bet.

How you plan on getting me my money when JDS loses?

Check, money order, paypal, whatever. and you when JDS knocks him out?

[Thewisemann]

Look I'm not trying to argue (or maybe I am), but what do you mean 'the Kongo fight'? What I saw when I watched that fight was an absolute literal-middle-of-the-cage assraping and a 30-26 scorecard. I saw a guy get hit about as hard as you're gonna get hit, TWICE, walk right through it and continue the beatdown. I saw a dominating fight over a well-established veteran by an extremely young fighter. I saw a fight that was 2.5 years ago.

I'm also curious what you mean by 'not sold on him'. I mean, even if you think JDS is better, Cain is still miles ahead of everyone else in the rubbish HW division. Right?

If you just mean 'not sold on him about this fight', then disregard. I agree the layoff (and moreso the injury itself) is potentially troublesome.

Kongo rocked him a few times, and even took him down once. JDS takedown defense is better than Kongos IMO, and if JDS rocks him Cain isnt gonna be able to take him down to recover. And Cain is impressive, but im not sold on him being the best yet. He beat Nog who was a zombie and Lesnar, who i think Carwin or JDS would beat. I see this fight as a coin flip, slight edge to JDS.

[Svino]

Look I'm not trying to argue (or maybe I am), but what do you mean 'the Kongo fight'? What I saw when I watched that fight was an absolute literal-middle-of-the-cage assraping and a 30-26 scorecard. I saw a guy get hit about as hard as you're gonna get hit, TWICE, walk right through it and continue the beatdown. I saw a dominating fight over a well-established veteran by an extremely young fighter. I saw a fight that was 2.5 years ago.

I have to agree with the interpretation of the Kongo fight that Cain looked bad in a couple ways there. The fact that he couldn't finish Kongo on the ground wasn't great. More importantly, it was pretty clear that he would have gotten completely destroyed in a stand-up fight. Getting staggered by a punch is not "walking through it". He gave the impression of being a fighter who could barely survive the 30 seconds of standup it took for him to get a takedown, and made me think: "If he fights a guy with better TDD than Kongo, he could be in huge trouble."

But like you said, it was 2.5 years ago. Cain is a very different fighter now. In particular, his standup is much much better.

[Vandelay]

The big questions in this fight are can Cain keep JDS down? When JDS has been taken down, he scrambles like hell to get up. See the Gonzaga fight and...I think thats the only fight. Carwin got him into the same position that he had Mir in. Against the cage looking to dirty box him. JDS wouldnt allow himself to be pinned down. The other question is who has the better standup. Does one favor the straight boxing of JDS or the multifaceted attack of Velasquez?

[Svino]

The big questions in this fight are can Cain keep JDS down? When JDS has been taken down, he scrambles like hell to get up. See the Gonzaga fight and...I think thats the only fight.

Carwin also took JDS down and JDS fence-climbed fight back up.

[SPX]

Bendo line might not be so great on the surface, but I see no way that Guida can win this fight. Horrible stylistic matchup for him, the fight should be more like -400 for Bendo, so I would bet heavily on him. I just can't see Guida winning, like at all.

I agree that this seems like one Guida will be losing. I put 3u on Bendo as soon as the line opened.

[edman5555]

The problem I have with picking JDS is the wrestling and cardio aspect of the fight. If JDS can't knock Cain out he will have to wrestle with him. However good JDS's wrestling is, it isn't better than Cains. Cain has outwrestled every single opponent, including Brock Lesnar. We haven't really seen JDS have to grapple yet. That fact kind of makes me lean Cain for two reasons. One, JDS has no actual wrestling/judo/grappling experience on a competitive level. Two, if he has not done it in a pro fight yet to date, how much practice does he have in real tmie? I am sure he can learn a lot in training but can he really close the gap? If so, we haven't seen. I don't agree that stopping Carwin's td attempts counts for very much. He is a shittier wrestler with mediocre takedowns that moves much slower.

Also, Cains striking might be pretty decent at this point. I doubt he can outstrike JDS but he can probably close the distance enough to make it a wrestling match. If he can't consistently do that then there is a good chance his jaw will get him through bad situations.

[SPX]

My editor for the mag just shot me an e-mail asking if I was picking Cain or JDS.

My response:

My head says Cain, because he should have a wrestling and cardio advantage, and seems to have a pretty good chin.

But my heart says JDS, because I've backed that guy since almost as soon as he came into the UFC, and I was saying like 2 years ago that he would be champ. So I'd like love to see that prediction come true.

[SPX]

I agree with those above who said that JDS will have to be on his A game T3D wise, and he'll probably need to blast Cain early with a really hard shot. The longer the fight goes on, I think it favors Cain.

[poopoo333]

But my heart says JDS, because I've backed that guy since almost as soon as he came into the UFC, and I was saying like 2 years ago that he would be champ. So I'd like love to see that prediction come true.

I said the exact same thing after he KO'd Werdum. Too bad I didn't know Cain Velasquez was going to be better.

[poopoo333]

I agree with those above who said that JDS will have to be on his A game T3D wise, and he'll probably need to blast Cain early with a really hard shot. The longer the fight goes on, I think it favors Cain.

Yeah, if Cain tires JDS out in a grappling match early, JDS isn't going to have as much power behind his punches. I'm not sure about JDS' cardio either, he gassed against Roy Nelson, but then again he may have punched himself out.