UFC on FOX

[sbjj]

Sometimes there is a fight that is so inconsistent with what came before or what happened since that the best thing you can do is just remove it from your calculations altogether. I now believe that Bendo vs. Pettis is just such a fight. It was a great fight to watch, but I feel like it doesn't make any damn sense. I don't know if Bendo was under the weather or Pettis just hot that day or what.

I think Pettis is actually a kick ass grapple that can grapple with anyone who is willing to grapple with him. Guida was not grappling when he beat Pettis. He was holding him down on the ground. I have no doubt that Ben could have done that same thing to Pettis. But he was stupid and he tried to inflict damage and give the fans an actual fight.

It basically comes down to me not believing Guida will be able to hold Ben down. Because that is the only way I see him winning.

[MMA_scientist]

Comparing Bendos fight with Pettis with Guidas is a big mistake IMO. Bendo took Pettis down but tried to finish him enabling Pettis to fire off subs and scramble. Guida straight just held on to him for dear life.

I do not think Guida will be able to do that to Ben. I actually think Ben will be the guy taking Guida down in this fight. I think Ben has an edge in every category here. And I think Guidas recent streak has alot more to do with luck than new camp or anything else.

There is definitely some truth to the different grappling styles... but one of the things that makes a guy a good grappler is the ability to force someone to play your game. Bendo has good enough wrestling that I think he can probably keep the action going, something like the Tyson Griffin/Guida fight... but that didn't stop Guida from winning most of the grappling enchanges.

One thing that also worries me is that Bendo has been into his jj lately, competing in Mundials in the gi... I just hope he hasn't gotten any real confidence in his guard. Just like wrestlers becoming kickboxers, you see wrestlers falling in love with jj and (and vice versa) and suddenly they start guard flopping (See Matt Hughes, Ben Askren) thinking that all they have to do is get it down and somehow they will take over...

As for Guida's lucky streak... ? I can see calling the Dos Anjos fight lucky since he broke his jaw (but I think Guida punched it to break it), but I don't think there was anything flukey about Gomi (other than he is Japanese and therefore not good in the UFC) and he went bell to bell with Pettis...

[MMA_scientist]

It basically comes down to me not believing Guida will be able to hold Ben down. Because that is the only way I see him winning.

On that we agree. But he has done it a lot of times before, so it makes me nervous. He is actually a pretty shitty fighter IMO, but he knows how to stall while being in a "superior" position.

If he comes to fight, he is dead.

[sbjj]

There is definitely some truth to the different grappling styles... but one of the things that makes a guy a good grappler is the ability to force someone to play your game. Bendo has good enough wrestling that I think he can probably keep the action going, something like the Tyson Griffin/Guida fight... but that didn't stop Guida from winning most of the grappling enchanges.

One thing that also worries me is that Bendo has been into his jj lately, competing in Mundials in the gi... I just hope he hasn't gotten any real confidence in his guard. Just like wrestlers becoming kickboxers, you see wrestlers falling in love with jj and (and vice versa) and suddenly they start guard flopping (See Matt Hughes, Ben Askren) thinking that all they have to do is get it down and somehow they will take over...

As for Guida's lucky streak... ? I can see calling the Dos Anjos fight lucky since he broke his jaw (but I think Guida punched it to break it), but I don't think there was anything flukey about Gomi (other than he is Japanese and therefore not good in the UFC) and he went bell to bell with Pettis...

You kind of answered your own question. He was lucky to fight Gomi. Any decent UFC LW would beat Gomi. And I think he was lucky to get Pettis at a time Pettis was hot. But Pettis did not even try to get back up most of the fight. He just had a very bad gameplan. I think Pettis could have fought Guida the same way he fought Stephens and maybe got the win or at least made it alot closer.

[SPX]

Also, as for Bocek. He is a complete stud, who was unlucky to get Ben as an opponent. Bocek is going to straight rape Lentz when they fight.

I agree he's good, but he's weirdly inconsistent.

He had an excellent performance against Jim Miller and decimated Hazelett, but got choked out by Danzig and lost convincingly to Bendo.

Not a guy I'd want to bet on, or against, anymore.

[sbjj]

On that we agree. But he has done it a lot of times before, so it makes me nervous. He is actually a pretty shitty fighter IMO, but he knows how to stall while being in a "superior" position.

If he comes to fight, he is dead.

Agreed. I just think Ben might be one of the hardest guys to stall. He has high energy and just seems strong as fuck. Your earlier point about Ben falling in love with his JJ is a bit worrying. But in his fights with Bocek and Miller he really seemed to realize how important it was to get off your back.

[sbjj]

I agree he's good, but he's weirdly inconsistent.

He had an excellent performance against Jim Miller and decimated Hazelett, but got choked out by Danzig and lost convincingly to Bendo.

Not a guy I'd want to bet on, or against, anymore.

I disagree. His fight with Danzig he was a completely different fighter. Hell, just look at the pics. He is now much stronger(thicker) and his striking is a whole lot better. I think his fights with Miller Hazelett and Ben are all consistent. He beat BOTH Miller and Hazelett and then just met a guy who at the moment is probably the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best LW on the planet.

[SPX]

That said, I do think Bendo is going to win. And SPX, don't let me scare you, I don't know what the hell I am talking about, I can't win a bet to save my life. If it weren't for those submissin props, I would be having a very slow year.

Eh, I have already been stressing about it. I was just really surprised at how effectively he was able to take Pettis down and hold onto him. I think of Pettis as actually having pretty decent T3D, and being good on the ground once it does get there, so I thought he would be able to stuff Guida or at least get back to his feet, and we all know how that fight went down.

[MMA_scientist]

Now watch Guida hold Ben up against the cage and get a split decision win.

He has had 4 split decisions in the UFC, that's pretty crazy. If you look at how Florian handled Guida's wrestling compared to Maynard's... I have to wonder how he keeps getting all these guys to engage in clinch wars with him. I mean, Florian ragdolled him. It seems like if guys turn the table on him, he has more trouble. If they try to avoid it, he just stays on them.

[sbjj]

He has had 4 split decisions in the UFC, that's pretty crazy. If you look at how Florian handled Guida's wrestling compared to Maynard's... I have to wonder how he keeps getting all these guys to engage in clinch wars with him. I mean, Florian ragdolled him. It seems like if guys turn the table on him, he has more trouble. If they try to avoid it, he just stays on them.

I think you are spot on. I think Bens best gameplan would be to go in there and try to plant Guida on his back.

[Ludo]

I think Guida's hands look like they have improved since he joined Jackson. He stood with Gomi, he didn't get taken out by Pettis (though he wasn't looking to stand)... I think Bendo has decent hands, but I don't remember him hurting anyone with strikes. He wins with grappling and pace. Guida grapple raped Pettis, who really got the better of Bendo on the mat IMO. I like Bendo, he is my favorite LW, but I don't think his line is justified. I would put him at around -170.

To be honest it's hard to compare the two fights given the circumstances. Bendo had to worry about defending his championship with no real tape to work with concerning how to hold him down to work on him. Guida had the benefit of far less pressure(he was supposed to lose that fight according to oddsmakers and all that) and he had the advantage of seeing where Bendo went wrong on the ground.

[poopoo333]

My biggest worry about Bendo is what SBJJ already said....Guida wins by cage pressing in a dumb decision. SBJJ...who else do you like on this card?

[sbjj]

My biggest worry about Bendo is what SBJJ already said....Guida wins by cage pressing in a dumb decision. SBJJ...who else do you like on this card?

I really do not see a dog I like. I was thinking Garza but have come to the realization that he is going to get beat up. I was trying to split the fights up into groups on terms of how sure I was of the winners. Pierce and Ben were at the top. So I may just parlay the two of them. I kinda like Lamas also, but not a bunch.

I actually think JDS is approaching a price where I might HAVE to bet him. Even money I would take Cain. But I think +150 on JDS shows some value. Even before the layoff I always thought JDS would be Cains tought fight.

[poopoo333]

Video: How Mainstream Is MMA?

[edman5555]

Wiseman, you seem so confident about jds. Will you really be shocked to see him lose?