UFC 141 Ubereem vs Brock 12/30

[MMA_scientist]

Magic parlay: "not gustaffson, fitch, hettes, cerrone by submission" All underdogs, none of them should be getting submitted. Should be a decent line since they are all at least +200 except Phan.

[Ludo]

Not sure if this is legit, I got it off another forum:

UFC 141 Lesnar vs Overeem - FREE FOR XBOX LIVE USERS(HD)
1.Download UFC App.

2.) Click Purchase

3.) Notice $0.00

It was only for the first 25,000 people who downloaded the UFC app on the new Xbox 360 dashboard and purchased the event that way. I tried it yesterday and it said it was sold out. Bastards.

[SPX]

I like pretty much all underdogs. I like Hendricks, Brock, Diaz, mildly like Efrain. Was hoping to bet DHK, but screw that. -365, I'll pass. I just need to sort out who i am actually going to play. I actually expect Brock to win and I think Diaz is close to 50%. Hendricks/Fitch will be really close IMO, but Fitch is more willing to Fitch it out than Johny is, and that could be the difference there. When Johny gets a break, I expect he will swing for the fence, where he should just try to win the Fitching contest. Efrain, i think his wrestling is close enough to Volkmann's to where it will probably come down to striking and grit.

My fear for betting on the underdogs is that it's going to be one of those cards where they're all competitive fights, but the fave edges it out every time.

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Reem there.

[MMA_scientist]

My fear for betting on the underdogs is that it's going to be one of those cards where they're all competitive fights, but the fave edges it out every time.

That's my issue too. I don't really like to bet more than 1 or 2 underdogs at a time, because even there is value, it would be pretty rare that 3 of 4 would win, or even 2 of 3. I generally pick the wrong ones. I feel like at least 1 of those 4 will win, and I have pretty much made my mind up to bet Brock @ +odds. So the question is whether I should press with Hendricks/Diaz/Efrain.

[SPX]

I think of the three, the likelihood of any of them winning goes Diaz, Efrain, Hendricks, in that order. In fact, I will probably bet Diaz. Efrain/Volkmann I'm just not sure about, could go either way. And I think Fitch will out-Fitch Hendricks, similar to Story.

[SPX]

Okay, just dropped enough on Diaz to win a unit.

If he loses then I will officially be 0-7 in bets involving Donald Cerrone.

[MMA_scientist]

Well Diaz has the best odds of the 3. I really don't know. Hendricks is obviously facing the best and most consistent opponent of the 3, but I also feel like he is the best fighter of the 3. Diaz is so hot and cold, but so is Cerrone to a lesser extent. Efrain was competitive with everyone he fought in the UFC... I don't really see why Volkmann is going to beat him. But then again, Volkmann beat McKee and Castillo, which are both somewhat suprising. I may be underrating Volkmann.

[MMA_scientist]

Just made the following bet: "not cerrone, Hendricks, Gustaffson, Hettes by submssion" @ -220. Not a lock, but definitely has magic value @ -220 IMO.

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 12/30/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1132 Any other result -720* vs Cerrone wins by submission
Pending 12/30/11 9:00pm Props Fighting 1228 Any other result -1570* vs Hendricks wins by submission
Pending 12/30/11 8:30pm Props Fighting 1332 Any other result -935* vs Gustafsson wins by submission
Pending 12/30/11 9:00pm Props Fighting 1428 Any other result -1350* vs Hettes wins by submission


I was going to bet "not Fitch by submission" because I thought the odds would be better, but the odds were better on "Not Hendricks by sub" for some reason.

[MMA_scientist]

Hettes is 9-0 with all subs. But Phan is a bjj bb who has never been subbed. May have to hedge out of that. It is still -294 without that bet. Matter of fact, I am going to do that.

[Luke]

It was only for the first 25,000 people who downloaded the UFC app on the new Xbox 360 dashboard and purchased the event that way. I tried it yesterday and it said it was sold out. Bastards.

Was 2 days ago because my brother and his friends got in on it .Went live around 3pm and sold out around 7. Would have posted it for you but I think xbox,just like boxing, is gay so I thought you'd be fine paying full price for UFC 141. My sources tell me you missed out on a heck of a deal.

[SPX]

BOL

Sorry Ludo that you have to pay full price. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Xbox is just stupid, not gay and stupid like boxing.

[Ludo]

BOL

Sorry Ludo that you have to pay full price. . .

BOL

Like I'm paying full price...

[Mr. IWS]

BOL

Like I'm paying full price...

Support the fighters!