12-4-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 347-348: Tennessee at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.324; Buffalo 127.469
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1 1/2); Over

Game 349-350: Kansas City at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.773; Chicago 139.353
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 14 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Chicago by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7); Under

Game 351-352: Oakland at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 132.078; Miami 132.962
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

Game 353-354: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.416; Pittsburgh 139.625
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.617; Cleveland 129.829
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 357-358: NY Jets at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.215; Washington 130.563
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 359-360: Atlanta at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.609; Houston 134.210
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Over

Game 361-362: Carolina at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.489; Tampa Bay 126.193
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Over

Game 363-364: Detroit at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.866; New Orleans 142.035
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7 1/2); Under

Game 365-366: Denver at Minnesota (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 130.568; Minnesota 127.701
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 33
Vegas Line: Pick; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver; Under

Game 367-368: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.581; San Francisco 137.975
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 16 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-13); Over

Game 369-370: Dallas at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.157; Arizona 129.326
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4 1/2); Over

Game 371-372: Green Bay at NY Giants (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.315; NY Giants 135.301
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+7 1/2); Under

Game 373-374: Indianapolis at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.216; New England 139.410
Dunkel Line: New England by 19; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 20 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+20 1/2); Under

Time Posted: 6:00 p.m. EST (11/29)
Game 375-376: San Diego at Jacksonville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 127.656; Jacksonville 131.394
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast - "Power Sweep" newsletter selections



NFL
4* Pittsburgh
3* Washington
2* Dallas
2* NY Giants+

System play > Under Rams/49ers
Angle plays > 49ers(4), Steelers(3)

[Mr. IWS]

DAVE Essler:

3* SUNDAY MIAMI -3

[Mr. IWS]

Week 13 NFL Trends & Angles
Now that we have reached Week 13, this is the point of the season where teams can become more easily disheartened if they go on losing streaks, as this is the time of year where a losing streak can take you right out of playoff consideration.

The most vulnerable teams appear to be teams that are favored at home after a couple of road losses, as being home does not help you much once your season is dashed, and now being asked to cover as a favorite can be especially difficult. Therefore, pay close attention to these situations over the last month of the regular season.

Play against any home favorite coming off of two or more road losses (53-36-2, 59.6% ATS since 2002): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses don't enjoy as much of a home field advantage as they normally do when they finally do return home, and this becomes more true as it gets later in the season, when those consecutive losses affect a team's playoff chances. As a case in point, while this angle is an already excellent 59.6 percent over all games since 2002, it has gone lights out during the month of December over this same span, going 20-10, 66.7 percent! There are two qualifiers as of now for Week 13, as this angle says to take the Carolina Panthers +3½ at Tampa Bay and the Tennessee Titans +1 at Buffalo. Keep a close eye on that second game though, as this angle only applies if the fading Bills remain favored.

During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of three or more losses (81-55-2, 59.6% ATS since 1985): This angle has the same logic as our previous trend, except that the team is coming off of three losses at any venue and is favored this week again regardless of the venue. This is also a better sampling, going all the way back to 1985 and encompassing 136 decisions. This angle has four qualifiers for Week 13, with the Panthers and Titans repeating from the fist angle, as well as the Denver Broncos +1 at Minnesota and the Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. San Diego (Monday). Also keep an eye on the Broncos' play to make sure Minnesota is still favored.

During the month of December only, play against any road underdog coming off of three or more ATS wins (61-40-6, 60.4% ATS since 1985): If a team is an underdog this late in the year after three ATS wins when logic dictates that the team is peaking, there is usually a very good reason for it. Finding something that has gone over the magical 60 percent mark with at least 100 plays is pretty special, and this angle has two plays in Week 13. Unfortunately, one of the plays clashes with our previous angle, as this trend says to take Minnesota -1 over Denver if the Vikings remain favored. The other play is the Miami Dolphins -3 over Oakland.

Play against any favorite playing a "bad team" after it played a "good team" the previous week (85-60-2, 58.6% ATS since 2002): This is one of our favorite angles, as it actually quantifies what good and bad teams are. For the purposes of our weekly angles and trends, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its last 18 games, and a bad team is defined as a team that has lost at least 12 of its last 18 games. This is the essence of the Letdown Theory, and the fact that it is now quantified and has produced the results we expected makes this angle that much stronger. This angle has one qualifying play in Week 13, and is says to play the St. Louis Rams +13 at San Francisco over the first place 49ers, who are coming off the Harbaugh Bowl on Thanksgiving Night.

Play against any team coming off of a Monday night loss by 17 points or more with no bye week (37-18, 67.3% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reasons are twofold. First, this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. Secondly, the shorter week makes it a tad more difficult to make the necessary adjustments. Now this angle did lose last week when the Chiefs covered vs. Pittsburgh, but it gets another chance this week with the Green Bay Packers -7 over the New York Giants, who got blasted by the Saints on Monday.

Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (41-23, 63.5% ATS since 1999): Yes, the same logic from the previous angle also applies to the Monday night blowout winner. The reason that the total number of qualifying plays the following week do not equal is because many teams have had bye weeks following Monday night games during this period. This angle did win last week with New England and the obvious qualifier this week is New Orleans -9 over Detroit.

Play on any road underdog coming off of six or more consecutive straight up losses (80-52-1, 60.6% ATS since 1985): We went all the way back to 1985 to make this sample size as meaningful as possible, and the results are quite good. These are teams that most squares would never bet their hard earned money on but that sharps love, as they are almost always getting added line value. This is another angle that won last week with Washington, and qualifiers don't get any uglier than the one for Week 13: the winless Indianapolis Colts +20½ at New England.

[Mr. IWS]

Free NFL Prediction From INDIAN COWBOY
Take #370 Arizona (+4.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)
If betting was easy, then everyone would make money right? It seems too easy right? Tony Romo and that potent Dallas offense rolling in with a decent defense anchored and coached by Rob Ryan and by the math they should steamroll this Arizona offense - right? Well, Arizona is one of those teams that gets up to play the better teams in the league. They always have. In that same token, they are one of those teams that also plays down to any team as well. Somehow, Arizona has won four games this season and obviously this team is not going to the playoffs as the 49ers are here to stay atop that division but having said that, this is a playoff type game for this team. The atmosphere will be great in Arizona for this contest as the Cowboys come knocking. Arizona is the same team that has won 3 of their last 4 games including a big win against Rams on the road, defeating the Eagles as 13.5-point underdogs outright on the road and losing to the Ravens by just 3 points on the road as they were 12-point underdogs on the road. Look for Arizona to be another solid active dog at home today as they will likely lose, but still say within the 4.5 spread and honestly, it would not shock me if this team did win outright at home. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS when facing a team with a losing record as usually they have inflated spreads placed on them for being such a public team and the Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS as home underdogs of this margin over the past few years.

[Mr. IWS]

Gridiron Gold Sheet

DETROIT LIONS (+9.0, ov53.0)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9.0, un53.0)
Sunday, Dec 04 2011, 05:30 PM PST
The Lions offense is 6th in the NFL. The Lions play against the Saints' high-powered offense and this defense gave up 35 points to Carolina two weeks ago, and three weeks ago, losing 37-13 at Chicago. The Over is 41-22-2 in the Lions last 65 games. The Saints have fast wide outs and a wide-open spread offense, led by QB Drew Brees plus a revamped backfield that adds Darren Sproles and rookie first round pick RB Mark Ingram. This passing offense is No. 2 in the NFL. Think Brees is ready for the playoffs? New Orleans had a 26-23 OT win at Atlanta two weeks ago, winning despite allowing 481 yards (138 rushing). So the Lions should be able to move the ball on the Saints. The over is 27-10-1 in the Saints last 38 games following an ATS win. Don’t look for either defense to play well, indoors on artificial carpet, which favors these passing attacks. Take the OVER.
TAKE: Saints/Lions Over 53

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

Sunday

Big
Pittsburgh -6.5

Medium
Saints -9
NY Jets -3

Small
Atlanta -2.5
GB Packers -6.5
TENN +1.5
Arizona +4.5
New England over 47.5
Dallas under 45.5

teaser - Ravens pk / Patriots -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

7-Unit Play. Take #354 Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Year.

4.5-Unit Play. Take #364 New Orleans (-9) over Detroit (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

2.5-Unit Play. Take #359 Atlanta (-2.5) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

3-Unit Play. Take #357 N.Y. Jets (-3) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

2.5-Unit Play. Take #371 Green Bay (-6.5) over N.Y. Giants (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

2-Unit Play. Take #347 Tennessee (+1.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #370 Arizona (+4.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #355 Baltimore (Pk) over Cleveland (4 p.m.) AND Take #374 New England (-13.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m.)

This Week's Totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.5 Dallas at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.5 Indianapolis at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 4)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4 UNIT: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

5 UNIT: NFL Jacksonville Jaguars +3

6 UNIT: NFL Cleveland Browns +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise Phones

4* Packers

3* Ravens, 49ers, Falcons

2* Broncos, Chargers Steelers, Cowboys/Cardinals Over

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth sense

3% washington +3 -120

3% houston +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd
36-23 for Yr

Atlanta
Dallas
Cincinnati
Minnesota
Washington

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NFL

Season
Straight Up: 118-50 (.702)
ATS: 91-76 (.545)
ATS Vary Units: 457-357 (.561)
Over/Under: 86-85 (.503)
Over/Under Vary Units: 262-234 (.528)

Sunday, December 4, 2011
NEW ENGLAND 42, Indianapolis 7
Tennessee 22, BUFFALO 20
CHICAGO 28, Kansas City 11
Oakland 21, MIAMI 19
TAMPA BAY 27, Carolina 20
N.Y. Jets 21, WASHINGTON 17
HOUSTON 25, Atlanta 18
PITTSBURGH 24, Cincinnati 14
Denver 26, MINNESOTA 19
Baltimore 22, CLEVELAND 10
Green Bay 37, N.Y. GIANTS 21
Dallas 24, ARIZONA 20
SAN FRANCISCO 25, St. Louis 7
NEW ORLEANS 37, Detroit 26

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus Text pick for sunday : Raiders+ points,