12-4-11

[Mr. IWS]

RANDALL THE HANDLE:


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

WASHINGTON +127 over N.Y. Jets PINNACLE
Give Mark Sanchez a lot of time against poor defenses and he can find his way to some wins, despite some bumps along the way. Against quality teams, you can ”fa ged a boud it”. New York’s only win against a winning team was a fluky victory in opening week over the Cowboys. The Jets offer up very little as road chalk, as evidenced by their 1-4 road record. That effort against Denver two weeks ago was disgraceful and last week’s win over the Bills wasn’t much better. The Redskins are a sub .500 squad but some of their offensive players have returned from injury and the team may have found in a runner in Roy Helu. Washington’s defense remains solid and is more than capable of bothering Sanchez all day. Keep the points. Play: Washington +127 (Risking 2 units).

HOUSTON +129 over Atlanta PINNACLE
We understand that the Texans are forced to start rookie T.J. Yates but c’mon now, should Atlanta really be favored as the visitor here? That’s fundamentally wrong and that forces us to do the right thing. For the first time in their history, the Texans can taste the playoffs. They aren’t about to let that opportunity slip way. The Texans defense will dig down deep here in support of their third string QB and try to give him a great opportunity to lead his team to victory. The Falcons are a winning team but they rarely have an easy time of it. Houston has a solid defense, a dynamic running attack and they’re at home. That’s more than enough to stay close to an unassertive Atlanta bunch that has covered just two of past eight as chalk. Atlanta hasn’t been right all season long and its 7-4 record is more impressive on paper than it is on the gridiron. The Falcons have had an easy schedule but just one easy win over Indy back in early November. Wrong side favored. Play: Houston +129 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND +6½ over Baltimore PINNACLE
Time and time again we’ve seen the Ravens come up with a stinker after a big win. We knew defeating San Francisco on Thanksgiving was a big win when the team poured Gatorade over its coach in Week 11 of a 16-game schedule. Perhaps they poured the energy drink over John Harbaugh after both wins against Pittsburgh only to be followed by losses to the Titans and Seahawks respectively. Or to the Jaguars after knocking off Houston. You get our drift. The Browns fit right in except that Cleveland can play some defense while the offence is showing signs of improvement. Ravens three road wins this season have cone against Titans, Jaguars and Seachickens. Expect a close one. Play: Cleveland +6½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

MINNESOTA –1 over Denver SportsInteraction
An above .500 Broncos team facing a limited 2-9 Minnesota team without Adrian Peterson, yet the Vikings are favored? Seems odd, no? Sometimes the line itself tells us whom to bet on and that’s precisely the case here. The Denver Broncos simply cannot keep winning running a college offense with Tim Tebow at QB. In the NFL, you’re only as good as your QB. Name any team in your head, then name the QB and that’s how good, bad or average the team is. Minnesota’s weakness is in stopping the pass and Denver can’t throw the ball. Broncos are coming off another unlikely win in San Diego and their bubble is going to burst with a huge bang. You can’t keep winning in this league passing for 50 yards a game and that’s all there is to it. Play: Minnesota –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

MIAMI –3 +106 over Oakland PINNACLE
This is the time of year that the true colors of teams come out. Bad teams are exposed, good teams step it up and elite teams take care if business. Why is a team that sits five games below .500 made a 3-pt choice over a squad that is currently three games above it? Perhaps won-loss records are the only stat where Oakland actually tops Miami? Raiders are another one of those imposter teams while the Dolphins are better than their record indicates. One could argue that Miami has looked razor sharp for a month now and that includes its impressive showing in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Fish have had 10 days to prepare against a weak Raiders defense while Dolphins’ defense is solid and that’s enough to fade the visitor here. Play: Miami –3 (Risking 2 units).


THE REST:

Tennessee +2½ over BUFFALO SportsInteraction
Hard to rely on the Bills as a favorite these days with their cluster of key injuries and their inability to stop their opposition. Buffalo’s current four-game losing streak has them being outscored 134-50. Prefer taking points with Bills under current physical and mental makeup and last week’s loss to Jets with big chance to win may have taken steam right out of Bisons. Play: Tennessee +2½ (No bets).

CHICAGO –7 over Kansas City PINNACLE
Todd Haley repeats that Tyler Palko remains the starting quarterback and that Kyle Orton has to win the job but he already has by virtue of being named Kyle Orton and not Tyler Palko. After two starts, Palko has thrown for no touchdowns and six interceptions so we’re not really buying what Haley is saying. So, thanks for the audition kid, don't call us, we'll call you. The loss in Oakland ended a five game winning streak for Chicago, where four of the weeks featured 30+ points scored by the Bears. They may need to score half that here to get the cover. That game against the Steelers reminded us of a big brother yawning and bracing his outstretched palm against little brothers head, while little brother just flails away without a prayer of ever landing a punch. Play Chicago –7 (No bets).

Cincinnati +6½ over PITTSBURGH PINNACLE
Despite considerable injuries, the Steelers must trot their wounded stars onto the field in order to remain in the hunt. That makes it difficult to be offering generous points within its division, against a Bengals team that hung in with them a few weeks ago, and typically plays Pittsburgh tough. Play: Cincinnati +6½ (No bets).

TAMPA BAY –3½ over Carolina PINNACLE
This one is more of a process of elimination, as Carolina is a worse option than the Bucs. Panthers impressed early with Cam Newton. What that accomplished was to set unrealistic expectations. They went all Prince Charming on the first date and now we’re expecting a dozen roses, a box of fine chocolates, and a limo ride every time out. But all the Panthers have delivered is a faded plastic gravesite bouquet, stale candy corn, and a ride to hell in a stinky cab. Tampa is home for only the second time in seven weeks, including a trip overseas and that figures to have them revved up for this divisional opponent. The Panthers are abysmal against the run and that should have LeGarrette Blount rambling over people most of the afternoon. Play: Tampa Bay –3½ (No bets).

Detroit +9 over NEW ORLEANS PINNACLE
Had this game been played prior to Detroit’s humiliating loss to Green Bay on Thanksgiving and before the Saints’ Monday night romp over the Giants, this line would have been six or so. Recent recall in the minds of bettors inflates this price and that offers us value on this offensively potent puppy. Play: Detroit +9 (No bets).

St. Louis +13½ over SAN FRANCISCO SportsInteraction
A low over/under total with a big point-spread usually bodes well for the underdog and we’ll lean that way here despite the overwhelming negatives cast upon the Rams. The Niners have all but locked up the NFC West and there is no need for them to lean heavily on the gas pedal right now.
Play: St. Louis +13½ (No bets).

Arizona +5 over DALLAS SportsInteraction
Cowboys haven’t won a road game this season by more than three points and this one may not be as easy as it looks. The Cardinals have held three of past four opponents to 20 points or less and now return home after pair on the road. Kevin Kolb should be back at QB for host and that can’t hurt. Play Arizona +5 (No bets).

N.Y. Giants +7 over GREEN BAY PINNACLE
We almost feel foolish fading the Packers. They keep winning. They keep covering. Now they square off against a Giants team, playing on a short week after being humiliated by the Saints on Monday night. But Giants’ backs are to the wall and we expect them to put up a fight here. Also note that whole world is on easy looking game and that’s the biggest red flag of them all. It’s almost as if the books are “taking a position” here. Play: N.Y. Giants +7 (No bets).

Indianapolis +20½ over NEW ENGLAND PINNACLE
In his first start for the Colts, (thanks Coach) Dan Orlovsky will try to keep within three touchdowns of Indy’s longstanding rival. While this one doesn’t have its usual hype, the visitor won’t lay down while Belichick could very well sit some Patriots late, allowing Indy to come in through a wide-open back door. Play: Indianapolis +20½ (No bets).

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SEATTLE +3 +100 over Philadelphia
One never knows which Philadelphia team will show up but now that the playoffs are nothing but a 'dream', it would seem unreasonable to expect a strong effort from this troubled Eagles squad. What started out with great promise is ending on a very bitter note. Philly also has the unenviable task of flying through three time zones on a short week while the Seahawks get to host consecutive games here in Seattle. While the 'Seahags are among the league's weaklings, they have been competitive and that is reflected in their recent run of covering seven of past eight when taking points. Play: Seattle +3 +100 (No bets).

[Mr. IWS]

NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: WEEK 13
By Colin Kelly


Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle
WHY EAGLES WILL COVER: It’s getting harder and harder to make a case for this nightmare of a Dream Team. But short weeks seem to work pretty well for Andy Reid & Co., with Philly cashing in its last four Thursday outings.
WHY SEAHAWKS WILL COVER: Before falling straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home Sunday to Washington, Seattle was on a 6-1-1 ATS spree. Philly (4-10 ATS last 14) will again be without QB Michael Vick (ribs), and the Eagles have less and less to play for with each passing week.
TOTAL (43): The over is 9-2 in Eagles’ last nine on road and 4-0 in the Seahawks’ last four at home.

Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)
WHY COLTS WILL COVER: Well, at 0-11 SU, they’re getting a ton of points. In this rivalry, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS last seven and 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog.
WHY PATRIOTS WILL COVER: Tom Brady’s troops, who have cashed their last five against losing units, might be able to name their score. Indy has dropped seven straight pointspread decisions.
TOTAL (48): Hard to peg without Manning in the equation. The under has hit four straight for Indy, but the over has cashed in 13 of the Colts’ last 16 on road. The Pats have the over on a 22-8 run overall and 11-4 at home.

Denver at Minnesota (-1)
WHY BRONCOS WILL COVER: Tim Tebow has helped the squad go 5-1 SU and ATS since taking over as the starter, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway. The Vikes are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams – believe it or not, the Tebows (er, Broncos) are now a winning team.
WHY VIKINGS WILL COVER: If they have stud RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) back in fold – which is iffy right now – it’ll certainly bolster their chances. Denver’s in ATS ruts of 7-22-1 against losing teams and 6-13 in December.
TOTAL (37.5): Denver’s defense has held its last three foes to total of 36 points and all three games went way under the total. That said, the over is 5-1 in the Vikes’ last six at home dome.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
WHY PANTHERS WILL COVER: Strong late-season finishers at the sportsbook, going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 in December. The Bucs are lousy at home ATS at 7-20 in their last 27.
WHY BUCCANEER WILL COVER: Chalk has been the play in six of the last seven in this NFC South rivalry and Carolina’s 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.
TOTAL (47.5): The under has hit in the Bucs’ last four NFC South tilts and is 6-2-2 in the Panthers’ last 10 division games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
WHY BENGALS WILL COVER: They gave the Steelers a tough battle three weeks ago before succumbing 24-17 at home, playing most of the game without stud rookie wideout A.J. Green, who is now back and healthy. Cincy hasn’t lost ATS in its last seven roadies (6-0-1), and in this AFC North rivalry, the visitor is on a 14-5-1 ATS stretch.
WHY STEELERS WILL COVER: The defending AFC champs are 8-2 SU and ATS last 10 against Cincinnati, winning and cashing the last three in a row.
TOTAL (42): Total has played over in the Steelers’ last five division affairs, seven of Bengals’ last eight overall, and five of Cincy’s last six on highway.

N.Y. Jets (-3) at Washington
WHY JETS WILL COVER: If you believe in patterns, I suppose the Jets are due. They lost three in a row ATS in games 3-5, then won three in a row ATS in games 6-8, and now they’ve lost three in a row ATS again in games 9-11. New York is also 10-4 ATS in last 14 against losing teams.
WHY REDSKINS WILL COVER: No positive ATS trends to speak off, but coming off a road win and cover that halted a six-game SU dive. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six on road and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in December.
TOTAL (38): Lots of over trends for Gang Green, including 21-8 overall and 18-7-1 on road, but the ‘Skins are on several under surges, including 8-1 against winning teams.

Kansas City at Chicago (-7.5)
WHY CHIEFS WILL COVER: Tyler Palko likely won’t be in lineup, giving way to recently acquired QB Kyle Orton, so that should help. K.C. nearly notched upset of Pittsburgh last week in 13-9 home loss as hefty 10.5-point underdog. In fact, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when getting points.
WHY BEARS WILL COVER: They’re still minus QB Jay Cutler for at least a few more weeks, but Caleb Hanie had a serviceable second half in the loss to the Raiders last week and should show improvement with more reps, along with playing at home. As favorites, Lovie Smith’s troops are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall and 6-1 at Soldier Field.
TOTAL (37.5): A low number here, with Bookmakers apparently leaning to the Chiefs’ stream of under trends to outweigh the Bears’ plethora of over streaks. Total has gone low in Kansas City’s last six games. The over has hit in Chicago’s last four games overall and last four in Windy City.

Tennessee at Buffalo (-1)
WHY TITANS WILL COVER: Buffalo’s dropped four straight (1-3 ATS), while the Titans have covered three in a row and four of five. And hey, there’s been a Chris Johnson sighting somewhere other than on the side of a milk carton. The Tennessee RB went off for 190 yards on just 23 carries (8.1 ypc) in last week’s win over Tampa Bay.
WHY BILLS WILL COVER: Absolutely, completely desperate. A loss pretty much equals no playoffs, for team that started season 4-1 and was still 5-2 through seven games. Buffalo’s 9-3 ATS in its last dozen as a favorite of three or fewer points.
TOTAL (43): The under is on streaks of 5-0 for Tennessee, 8-1 for Buffalo in December and 7-3 for Bills at home. That said, the over is 9-2-1 in the Bills’ last dozen overall, including three in a row.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Houston
WHY FALCONS WILL COVER: The Texans are down to third-string QB, rookie T.J. Yates, after season-ending injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. Atlanta can load up against Houston’s vaunted running game, knowing the Texans’ passing game should struggle. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog.
WHY TEXANS WILL COVER: They’ve been overcoming key injuries all season, to stud RB Arian Foster early on, to star WR Andre Johnson for a lengthy midseason stretch, and to LB Mario Williams, who was lost for the season Oct. 9. Despite all those setbacks, they’re atop AFC at 8-3 SU and are tied for second in the conference at 7-3-1 ATS.
TOTAL (38.5): Houston will hope to milk the clock with Foster-led running game (151.7 ypg, third in league) to take pressure off Yates. Atlanta hasn’t gone over in two months, with six straight unders.

Oakland at Miami (-3)
WHY RAIDERS WILL COVER: The surprise leaders of the AFC West at 7-4 SU are even better at the betting window, going 8-3 ATS this year while winning and cashing the last three in a row. They’ve also cashed six straight on highway.
WHY DOLPHINS WILL COVER: Don’t know where these guys were through much of the season, but they are on fire now, having cashed five in a row while winning three of the last four SU.
TOTAL (43): If Miami is involved, often the under is, too. The Dolphins have the under on runs of 15-5-1 overall, 7-0 coming off SU loss, and 6-0-1 within AFC.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
WHY RAVENS WILL COVER: They’ve been inconsistent against the spread, but they’ve been consistent in this AFC North rivalry, covering five of last six (6-0 SU). The Browns are on pointspread purges of 3-10-2 overall, 1-7-2 at home, and 1-5 in division play.
WHY BROWNS WILL COVER: Cleveland’s certainly a few pegs below Baltimore, but the Ravens have bad habit of playing down to level of competition. They lost outright at Jacksonville and at Seattle, and narrowly beat Arizona while failing to cash as 12-point home chalk.
TOTAL (38): The over has hit in Baltimore’s last four division games and five of its last six roadies. The total has played over in six of Cleveland’s last eight division contests.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-13)
WHY RAMS WILL COVER: Not easy to justify St. Louis covering. The Rams have almost no positive pointspread trends to speak of, but 13 points is a lot to get against a division rival and St. Louis cashed in both meetings with the Niners last year.
WHY 49ERS WILL COVER: Let’s put this in simplest possible terms: The Niners lead the league with a 9-1-1 ATS record, while Rams are tied for dead last at 2-9 ATS. That about covers it, don’t you think?
TOTAL (37.5): St. Louis can’t score, averaging a meager 12.7 ppg which ranks 31st in league. So even though this is a rather low total, the under is certainly in play. Plus, the under has cashed in five of six for San Fran.

Green Bay (-7) at N.Y. Giants
WHY PACKERS WILL COVER: That’s just what they do. The defending Super Bowl champs have won 17 consecutive games and have gone 13-4 against the line in that stretch. Aaron Rodgers & Co have been strong on road too, covering eight of last 10. The Giants have lost three in a row SU and are in a 1-5-1 ATS tailspin.
WHY GIANTS WILL COVER: Desperate times call for desperate measures. If the Giants want to remain a playoff contender, they can’t even afford a loss. This amounts to a season-saving game for New York.
TOTAL (52): Nobody puts up more points than the Pack, averaging 34.7 ppg, and the Giants – on a handful of over streaks – just allowed the Saints to hang a 49-spot on them in a blowout road loss. But with Green Bay as a visitor, the under has hit 12 of the last 17 overall, and nine of last 12 with the Packers laying points.

Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona
WHY COWBOYS WILL COVER: They haven’t cashed often lately (1-4 ATS last four), but they’re building up steam with four consecutive SU victories. Dallas will also be looking for some payback, having lost at home to Arizona on a last-second field goal last Christmas. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Redbirds.
WHY CARDINALS WILL COVER: The Cards have won and covered three of four, all behind backup QB John Skelton and they could have starter Kevin Kolb back this week from foot/toe injuries. The Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this rivalry, and the Cowboys are in a 3-12-1 ATS funk when laying points.
TOTAL (45.5): The over has hit in four of the last five at home for the Cards. Dallas has the over on an 11-4 run as a chalk and 8-3 as a visitor.

Detroit at New Orleans (-9)
WHY LIONS WILL COVER: Detroit needs a win to stay in the NFC playoff chase and this is a lot of points even without DT Ndamukong Suh (two-game suspension). The Lions have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven roadies. The last time the Saints blew a team out, a 62-7 home win over Colts on Oct. 23, they came back a week later and lost outright to subpar St. Louis.
WHY SAINTS WILL COVER: Well, that offense is pretty impressive, hanging 49 points on Giants last week to push its season average to 32.9 ppg, second only to Green Bay’s 34.7. Drew Brees & Co have cashed all five this season at home, with four of those wins by double digits.
TOTAL (54): We’ve got the second and fourth best scoring teams in the league, with Detroit putting up 28.7 ppg, and the Lions without arguably their best defensive player. That looks like a recipe for the over. The Lions have the over on a 16-7-1 run overall, 18-7-1 on the highway, and 6-0-1 with Lions set as a road pup.

San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville
WHY CHARGERS WILL COVER: Too much talent for this team to be riding a six-game SU and ATS losing streak and eventually that talent should win out. This week could be the spot, as Jacksonville is out of sorts after firing coach Jack Del Rio on Tuesday. The Bolts are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 in December while the Jags are on ATS downslides of 4-9-1 overall and 2-8-1 as a pup. Plus, the Jags can’t score, averaging a league-worst 12.5 ppg behind rookie QB Blaine Gabbert.
WHY JAGUARS WILL COVER: Well, there’s that 0-6 SU and ATS burden San Diego is carrying. The Bolts are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven on the road.
TOTAL (38.5): We’re talking about Jacksonville here, so the under has got to be considered. The under has cashed in all but one of the Jags’ games this season, and they are on under runs of 6-0 on Monday night, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 at home.

[Mr. IWS]

Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David

Week 12 Recap

The ‘under’ express notched another winning week with a 9-7 record, thanks to three low-scoring affairs on Thanksgiving Day. Most of the remaining outcomes were clear-cut, with exception to the Cardinals-Rams and Redskins-Seahawks matchups. Those games saw 30 and 26 points posted in their second-halves respectively, and both went ‘over’ the number. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 89-81-5 (52%).

Mid-Week Alert

Finally, a game being played on Thursday went ‘over’ the number. Seattle ripped Philadelphia 31-14 this week and the combined 45 points slid above the closing number of 43½, thanks to a late pick-six touchdown from the Seahawks. If you include the Week 1 shootout between New Orleans and Green Bay, the ‘under’ is 5-2 in games played on Thursday this season. Next week, Cleveland and Pittsburgh will go head-to-head and that total will likely be in the thirties.

Off the Bye

No more teams will be playing off the BYE until the playoffs occur. We mention that because you might want to look at low-scoring affairs in the Divisional Round of the postseason. This season, the ‘under’ went 24-8 (75%) in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.

System Plays

The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up again this Sunday. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 68% (26-12-2) over the last seven seasons, and its gone 3-2 (60%) this season, thanks to a pair of winning ‘over’ tickets last weekend.

Two more matchups left, one of them this Sunday, which are listed below:

Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore

Earlier Results:
Week 5 - N.Y. Jets 21 at New England 30 (OVER 50.5)
Week 6 – New Orleans 20 at Tampa Bay 26 (UNDER 49.5)
Week 8 – Indianapolis 10 at Tennessee 27 (UNDER 43)
Week 12 – Arizona 23 at St. Louis 20 (OVER 40)
Week 12 - Buffalo 24 at N.Y. Jets 28 (OVER 42.5)

Head-to-Head

Here’s a quick look at some trends for the four divisional games on tap this week:

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals (8-3) and Steelers (6-5) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season. Cincy has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 on the road. Pittsburgh beat the Bengals 24-17 on Oct. 13 and the combined 41 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 40 ½. This week’s number is hovering between 42 and 43 points. The last three regular seasons has watched the total go 1-1 in this series, so if that stays true then the ‘under’ will cash on Sunday.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: This total was 48 before the status of Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman (shoulder) was released. These teams haven’t seen a number this high in years. The total is 4-4 in the last eight games.

Baltimore at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings. Cleveland hasn’t scored more than 17 points during this stretch. The Browns were on a 5-0-1 ‘under’ run before last week’s outcome against Cincinnati (20-23) went ‘over.’

St. Louis at San Francisco: The Rams have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 on the road, while the 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home. The total is hovering between 37 and 38 points. The two regular season meetings last year went ‘over’ but only 43 and 42 points were posted in those games.

Under the Lights

Gamblers watched the Steelers and Chiefs slug it out on SNF before watching the Giants and Saints play in a shootout on MNF. The total went 1-1 and the ‘over’ now stands at 15-10-1 (60%) in primetime battles this season. This week’s pair will feature two non-divisional games, which are tougher to gauge since the sample size isn’t that great. Let’s take a closer look.

Detroit at New Orleans: This is the highest total on the board and deservingly so. The Saints gave us a taste of what they can do at home last week when they posted 49 against the Giants. We also got to see that New Orleans’ defense (22.9 PPG) isn’t that great either. Detroit’s offense (29 PPG) has been better on the road, which has translated into a 5-0 record to the ‘over.’ The loss of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (suspension) certainly won’t help the Lions slow down Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Speaking of Brees, the last two times (2009, 2008) he faced the Lions, he put up 45 and 42 points. The team total on New Orleans is listed at 31 points this week, 22 ½ points for Detroit. Make a note that we’ve seen 17 totals listed at 50 points or higher this season and the ‘over’ has gone 9-8 in those affairs.

San Diego at Jacksonville: While the SNF affair is expected to be a shootout, this week’s Monday Night Football matchup is ugly. The Jaguars have watched the ‘under’ 10-1 this season, largely due to an inept offense that is averaging a league worst 12.5 PPG. San Diego hasn’t been much better lately, putting up 17, 20 and 13 points the last three weeks. The Chargers’ offensive line has been decimated by injuries and you can see it in the attack. This is one of those totals that if you bet it and win, you better not pat yourself on the back. And if you lose, you’re a jackass for betting it.

Fearless Predictions

While I understand that you’re only as good as your last bet, it’s safe to say that we’re playing with confidence lately. We got a little luck with the Texans-Jaguars ‘under’ last Sunday but wins are wins and we’re happy to say we pulled off the sweep (4-0, +400) last week. On the season, we’re up $860 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Dallas-Arizona 45.5

Best Under: Cincinnati-Pittsburgh 43

Best Team Total: Under Kansas City 15.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36.5 Dallas-Arizona
Over 37.5 Carolina-Tampa Bay
Under 61 Green Bay-N.Y. Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Miami Dolphins -3

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

TEXANS +1.5 vs falcons
BRONCOS -1 at vikings
STEELERS -6.5 vs bengals
PACKERS -6 at giants
COWBOYS -4.5 at cardinals
SAINTS -9 vs lions (SNF)
JAGUARS +3 vs chargers (MNF)

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche (133, 5.5)

After a relatively slow start, the Red Wings are positively on fire.

They have won seven in a row and now have 33 points, tied for third most in the entire NHL along with fellow Central Division leader Chicago. In this current streak, Detroit has been taken to overtime just once and it has won its last three games by a combined score of 12-4.

"The confidence in the room right now is great," said goalie Jimmy Howard, who has made 17 straight starts. "And in hockey, confidence is everything."

The Wings and Avalanche have faced each other twice this season. Detroit dominated both contests; 3-0 on October 8 and 5-2 on November 8.

Pick: Red Wings

Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks (-116, 5.5)

By comparison, the Ducks are on a flat-out hot streak right now. Still, it does not get much worse than this team when it comes to the entire NHL.

Anaheim has earned points in two straight games, winning 4-1 over Montreal on Wednesday and losing in a shootout to Philadelphia on Friday. Wednesday’s victory ended a whopping seven-game losing streak.

The Ducks are tied for second to last in the league, two points ahead of Columbus. Enter new head coach Bruce Boudreau, former head man of the Washington Capitals.

"The energy and enthusiasm on the bench was really good,” Boudreau said after his first game, in which Anaheim blew a 3-0 lead over the Flyers. “Everybody left everything they had on the ice. It wasn't a question of people not giving it their all. They tried hard."

No, the problem isn’t effort. The problem is just that the Ducks aren’t any good.

Pick: Wild

[Mr. IWS]

COLLEGE FUNDS

Baylor Bears at Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 137.5)

Something will have to give when Baylor visits Northwestern on Sunday. Both teams are undefeated, with Baylor coming in at 6-0 and Northwestern registering at 7-0.

The jury is still out on the Bears because they have played a soft schedule. Their best win came on November 15 in the form of a 77-67 victory over San Diego State.

On paper, though, eighth-ranked Baylor looks great. Forward Quincy Acy is averaging 11.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Fellow forward Quincy Miller is averaging 15.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per outing.

But the real story is the return of preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Perry Jones III. He missed the first five games due to suspension but took the court on Tuesday and promptly dropped 27 points on Prairie View in a 90-54 win.

Don’t expect Northwestern to be able to handle the 6’11’’ sophomore.

Pick: Baylor

UNLV Rebels vs. Wichita State Shockers (-2, 140)

UNLV has surged into the Top 25 thanks to an 8-0 start to the season that includes an upset of then-No. 1 North Carolina. The Rebels, basically playing at home in Las Vegas, stunned the Tar Heels 90-80 on November 26.

They almost had a hangover on Wednesday at UC-Santa Barbara, but the Rebels survived 94-88 in overtime.

If Wichita State wants to be the team to halt the hot streak, it will have to contain UNLV forward Mike Moser. So far, nobody has been able to do it.

Moser leads the team in a host of categories, averaging 17.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game to go along with a 50.5 field-goal percentage.

Pick: UNLV

[Mr. IWS]

David Chan aka The Dragon

Cinncinnati @ Pittsburgh PICK: 10* Pitt -7 "ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH"
Oakland @ Miami PICK: 8* Mia -2.5
Indianapolis @ New England PICK: 10* Indy +22 "SHOCKER"
Detroit @ New Orleans PICK: 10* NO -9 "BANZAI BLOWOUT"

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 25 Denver

[Mr. IWS]

EA SPORTS CONSULTANTS

50* Washington Redskins +3 (1:00pm ET)
50* Minnesota Vikings -1 (1:00pm ET)
50* New York Giants +7 (4:15pm ET)
25* Buffalo Bills -1 (1:00pm ET)
25* Cleveland Browns +6.5 (4:05pm ET)
25* Detroit Lions +9 (8:20pm ET)

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Packers -6 over Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Minnesota Wild + Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Western Kentucky +4 over Bowling Green

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

Minnesota at Anaheim

The Wild look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Minnesota is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4 Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Minnesota at Anaheim (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.183; Anaheim 10.720 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Under

Game 3-4: Detroit at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.009; Colorado 12.646 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over

Game 5-6: Calgary at Vancouver (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.854; Vancouver 12.117 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-200); Under

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Basketball Picks

South Carolina at Clemson

The Gamecocks look to take advantage of a Clemson team that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 Sunday games. South Carolina is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 841-842: New Mexico State at Southern Mississippi (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 63.481; Southern Mississippi 66.158 Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 2 1/2; 142 Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 145 Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+3); Under

Game 843-844: Akron at Middle Tennessee State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.683; Middle Tennessee State 66.709 Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 9; 143 Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 6 1/2; 137 Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-6 1/2); Over

Game 845-846: VCU at George Washington (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: VCU 61.873; George Washington 59.743 Dunkel Line: VCU by 2; 119 Vegas Line: George Washington by 1; 126 Dunkel Pick: VCU (+1); Under

Game 847-848: SMU at Arkansas-Little Rock (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: SMU 53.482; Arkansas-Little Rock 53.081 Dunkel Line: Even; 121 Vegas Line: SMU by 1 1/2; 117 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+1 1/2); Over

Game 849-850: Bowling Green at Western Kentucky (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 53.526; Western Kentucky 47.933 Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5 1/2; 125 Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2; 128 Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-3 1/2); Under

Game 851-852: South Carolina at Clemson (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 55.160; Clemson 63.230 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 8; 128 Vegas Line: Clemson by 10 1/2; 123 Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+10 1/2); Over

Game 853-854: UNLV at Wichita State (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 68.857; Wichita State 73.543 Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 4 1/2; 144 Vegas Line: Wichita State by 2; 139 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-2); Over

Game 855-856: Baylor at Northwestern (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 67.013; Northwestern 68.190 Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 1; 135 Vegas Line: Northwestern by 3; 137 Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+3); Under

Game 857-858: NC State at Stanford (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC State 63.558; Stanford 73.763 Dunkel Line: Stanford by 10; 135 Vegas Line: Stanford by 7 1/2; 138 Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-7 1/2); Under

Game 859-860: Notre Dame at Maryland (4:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 64.681; Maryland 62.008 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2; 136 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 1; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-1); Over

Game 861-862: California at San Diego State (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: California 67.502; San Diego State 65.403 Dunkel Line: California by 2; 128 Vegas Line: Pick; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: California; Under

Game 863-864: Nebraska at Creighton (5:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 60.428; Creighton 71.302 Dunkel Line: Creighton by 11; 137 Vegas Line: Creighton by 8 1/2; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8 1/2); Over

Game 865-866: Kansas State at Virginia Tech (5:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 68.141; Virginia Tech 70.629 Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2; 128 Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 131 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 867-868: Mississippi at Penn State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 60.735; Penn State 59.451 Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2 1/2; 130 Vegas Line: Penn State by 1; 127 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+1); Over

Game 871-872: North Texas at Loyola-Marymount (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 47.469; Loyola-Marymount 59.039 Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 873-874: Rider at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rider 47.684; Marist 46.793 Dunkel Line: Rider by 1; 138 Vegas Line: Pick; 146 Dunkel Pick: Rider; Under

Game 875-876: St. Peter's at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 48.935; Manhattan 52.392 Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 3 1/2; 127 Vegas Line: Manhattan by 3; 121 Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-3); Over

Game 877-878: Iona at Niagara (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iona 63.528; Niagara 52.053 Dunkel Line: Iona by 11 1/2; 152 Vegas Line: Iona by 13 1/2; 157 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+13 1/2); Under

Game 879-880: Dayton at Murray State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.475; Murray State 63.938 Dunkel Line: Even; 137 Vegas Line: Murray State by 3; 132 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+3); Over

Game 881-882: Fairfield at Canisius (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 56.903; Canisius 49.136 Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 8; 133 Vegas Line: Fairfield by 6; 135 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-6); Under

Game 883-884: Montana at Oregon State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montana 55.135; Oregon State 65.424 Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 10 1/2; 138 Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9 1/2; 135 Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-9 1/2); Over