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Bob Christ’s breakdown of Pro Football Week 13 December 03, 2011 3:00 AM by Bob Christ
PRO FOOTBALL SUNDAY, Dec. 4
Tennessee (6-5) at Buffalo (5-6)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Bills by 1½ (43)
Facts: Buffalo pass rushers failed to get to the quarterback last week for the fifth time this season, a league high. It was the first time the Jets kept their QB clean. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson had a season-high 190 yards rushing last week against Tampa Bay , the fourth time the past three seasons he’s had the week’s second-best performance. In 2009, he had top efforts three times in a five-week stretch.
Analysis: The Titans’ two-game deficit to Houston in the AFC South doesn’t seem so daunting anymore thanks to the Texans’ QB woes. Still, Tennessee left lots of points on the field in their 23-17 victory over the Bucs last week, scoring only two FGs despite opening four drives in plus territory. The injury-ravaged Bills should be deflated coming off a 0-3 trip, a fall from legitimate playoff contention and chunks of empty seats greeting their return.
Forecast: Titans 24, Bills 16
Kansas City (4-7) at Chicago (7-4)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Bears by 7½
Facts: Chiefs QB Tyler Palko will be making his third straight start in place of injured Matt Cassel (IR) and still looking to lead his first TD drive. In KC’s last 17 possessions, Palko has six INTs and lost a fumble. Meanwhile, ex-Bear and freshly minted Chiefs QB Kyle Orton waits to make his debut. Bears WR Johnny Knox, at 22.2 yards a catch, would be leading the NFL in that category even without his 81-yard grab last week in Oakland .
Analysis: KC fans can’t wait for Orton to step in for Palko, who throws as if he’s wearing a blindfold. But then again, if Orton is the savior, how come he’s the 26th – ranked passer off his days in Denver . Chicago QB Caleb Hanie, in his second career start, should be much-improved off his shaky first half (3 INTs) in Oakland . Considering Palko never reached the red zone last week, Chicago won’t need much.
Forecast: Bears 21, Chiefs 9
Oakland (7-4) at Miami (3-8)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Dolphins by 3 (43)
Facts: Oakland QB Carson Palmer has played only 4½ games, but has thrown 8 INTs in foe territory, third most in the league. This is a "jet lag" game for the Raiders, who had to cut across three time zones to play in the early Sunday game. Since 2006, teams are 20-33-1 in this slot, but 6-2-1 this season thanks largely to SF’s 4-0 mark. In 2008, Miami played host to all four West Coast teams in jet-lag games, but went only 1-3 ATS.
Analysis: Oakland RB Michael Bush is being run into the ground. He’s averaged 25 carries the past three weeks, an absurdly high norm for him. After averaging better than 5 yards each outing in Games 7-9, Bush’s output plunged to 3.6 and 2.9 in Games 10-11. Relief likely won’t come until Darren McFadden quits babying his foot injury (questionable). Miami has been a hot, going 5-0 ATS since being Tebowed in Week 7.
Forecast: Dolphins 23, Raiders 17
Cincinnati (7-4) at Pittsburgh (8-3)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Steelers by 7 (42½)
Facts: Although Cincinnati has gone 1-10 both SU and ATS at home against the Steelers since 2002, but are 4-5 in Pittsburgh during that stretch. The Bengals have won those four games outright, including 18-12 in 2009 as an 8-point underdog. Cincy erased a 14-0 deficit vs. Pittsburgh four weeks ago before losing, 24-17. In the past three weeks, they rallied from 10-point deficits to beat Tennessee and Cleveland .
Analysis: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his men didn’t exactly put away a limited KC team last Monday night, winning 13-9 as a 10½-point favorite – the second time this year Pittsburgh failed to cover as a double-digit road pick. Could some of that have been Big Ben’s thumb injury? He averaged only 6.2 yards a throw, his lowest mark of the year. Plus, he faces the Bengals’ No. 7 rated defense, not the No. 20 of KC.
Forecast: Bengals 19, Steelers 17
NY Jets (6-5) at Washington (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Jets by 3 (38)
Facts: Washington’s Graham Gano, a former star for Las Vegas in the UFL, is the league’s most unreliable kicker with nine misses on FG attempts and even one on a PAT try. The Jets, who trail Cincinnati by a game in a bid for the final wild card, have a closing stretch of five games against teams with a cumulative 21-35 mark. The Bengals’ foes are 30-25, including Pittsburgh , Houston and Baltimore .
Analysis: Rex Grossman, the only Week 1 starting QB to lose his job and get it back, helped Washington rally from a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit last week in Seattle in a 23-17 victory. And RB Roy Helu has been a force running and receiving. Sure, New York QB Mark Sanchez had a career-best four TD throws last week, but he was only 13-for-31 with an INT the rest of the time against Buffalo’s 25th-rated unit based on defensive passer rating.
Forecast: Redskins 21, Jets 14
Indianapolis (0-11) at New England (8-3)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Patriots by 20 (47½)
Facts: The Patriots are 4-15 as a double-digit pick since midway in 2007, when they failed to cover all three times as a choice of 20-plus points. They did rout KC 34-3 as a 16½-point choice in Week 11. Quiz: What do the 1967 Colts, who went 11-1-2, have in common with the 2011 bunch? Neither was good enough to reach the postseason. Indy is benching QB Curtis Painter for Dan Orlovsky, who last started for 0-16 Detroit in 2008.
Analysis: One of the funniest things on TV this week was watching Patriots QB Tom Brady attempting to keep a straight face while talking about the formidable challenge faced when Indy brings its weapons to New England . It was like the old days of Bear Bryant fearing for his Alabama players’ health when a team like Southern Georgia Wesleyan visited. New England likely can name the score, but won’t be mean.
Forecast: Patriots 31, Colts 7
Atlanta (7-4) at Houston (8-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line: Falcons by 3 (37½)
Facts: Houston is down to third-string QB T.J. Yates, a rookie fifth-round pick from UNC. Yates will be the fifth first-year QB starter this year. The others have gone a combined 14-22 SU, but are 18-17-1 ATS. Atlanta , behind QB Matt Ryan, has only the NFL’s No. 13 offense despite playing six of its games vs. teams listed in the bottom 10 defensively. In Ryan’s only game against a top-10 unit ( Detroit ), he had one TD throw and two INTs.
Analysis: Although Houston had only nine first downs in last week’s 20-13 victory at Jacksonville , the fewest for a winning team in almost a year, Yates wasn’t allowed to do much except hand off and flip a screen or two. That helps explain the five second-half 3-and-outs. This week the Texans should be letting him look downfield more for Andre Johnson, thereby giving his running game some space. Getting points is a nice safety net.
Forecast: Texans 20, Falcons 16
Carolina (3-8) at Tampa Bay (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Bucs by 3 (47)
Facts: Carolina WR Steve Smith, who’s 54 yards short of 10,000, has 22 catches of 20-plus yards this year, most in the NFL. Tampa Bay foes have started an astonishing 14 drives in Bucs territory the past three weeks. Nine were the result of turnovers, but on those only twice did the enemy get a TD. Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman has been nursing a sore shoulder. On deck is Josh Johnson, who started four games for the Bucs in 2009.
Analysis: The Buccaneers have been catching a lot of grief for all their poor tackling and so forth, but they can’t be that bad if they keep repelling foes inside their territory. Carolina , meanwhile, was extremely fortunate Curtis Painter was still at QB for Indy in last week’s game when he had a personal meltdown and lost his job. This could be a big game for bulldozing Bucks RB LaGarrette Blount against a feeble linebacking unit.
Forecast: Bucs 28, Panthers 21
Denver (6-5) at Minnesota (2-9)
Time: 10 a.m. PT
Line: Vikings by 1½ (37½)
Facts: Denver has a four-game winning streak, all coming with the Broncos at least a 3-point underdog. Vikings WR Percy Harvin had his most productive day of the season last week in Atlanta with eight catches for 95 yards and a TD. Broncos QB Tim Tebow is averaging 10.2 completions in his six starts. In Miami’s 1973 Super season, Hall of Famer Brian Griese’s norm was fewer than 10 connections a game. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is questionable (ankle).
Analysis: Tebow continues to draw raves, even though he’s generated only one TD in each of his past two games, which included a messy 11 three-and-outs. Just how long can Denver’s defense sustain its high level with so little help from the offense. Broncos rookie pass-rush sensation, DE Von Miller, had a surgical thumb procedure and might not be his usual self if he plays. All this plays into Minnesota’s hands.
Forecast: Vikings 19, Broncos 13
Baltimore (8-3) at Cleveland (4-7)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 6½ (38)
Facts: Baltimore’s nine sacks against San Francisco last week was second only to Buffalo’s 10 against Washington in Week 8. The Ravens have won six straight (5-1 ATS) against the Browns since 2008. Baltimore has held three teams to less than 100 yards net passing this year. No other team has done so even twice. The Browns’ defense has 22 sacks, tied for eighth fewest in the league. Baltimore had 9 last week against San Francisco in a 16-6 victory.
Analysis: Since no one quite gets knocked around in the pocket than Cleveland’s Colt McCoy, he’s in big trouble trying to fend off Baltimore’s fierce rush, Especially since they’ve had extra rest after their Thanksgiving effort. But will Baltimore wind up bringing its "C" game like it did in losses to Jacksonville and Seattle ? Likely not. One loss could be costly If they are to secure a division title, home playoff game and bye.
Forecast: Ravens 24, Browns 7
St. Louis (2-9) at San Francisco (9-2)
Time: 1:15 p.m. PT
Line: 49ers by 13½ (37½)
Facts: San Francisco’s 170 yards of total offense last week at Baltimore was the sixth worst output in the league this season. Only six years ago, a 49ers team that finished last in total offense and defense had five such horrible offensive displays. St. Louis has given up 200-plus rushing yards a league-high three times. Victims of such ground assaults are 0-19 (2-17 ATS).
Analysis: This is the Rams’ third outing as a double-digit dog. In addition to holding Green Bay to a season-low in points in a 24-3 loss in Week 6, two weeks later St. Louis stunned the Saints 31-21 as a 13½-point underdog. As for SF, perhaps Baltimore showed a blueprint on how to harass QB Alex Smith. After all St, Louis had six sacks against New Orleans , which pitched a pass-protection shutout against the Giants last week.
Forecast: 49ers 17, Rams 13
Dallas (7-4) at Arizona (4-7)
Time: 1:15 p.m. PT
Line: Cowboys by 4½ (45½)
Facts: Dallas QB Tony Romo has vaulted from No. 10 to 4 on the passer charts during a four-game win streak. In last year’s meeting in he desert, Arizona had a 14-0 lead in the first seven minutes on two INT returns of Jon Kitna passes en route to a 27-26 victory behind John Skelton. Speaking of Skelton, his 30.0 passer rating last week in a win over St. Louis was the worst for a winning starting QB since Week 4 last year (Chicago’s Todd Collins, 8.1).
Analysis: It’s usually like a home game when the Cowboys show up in Arizona , so playing in an enemy dome shouldn’t have the usual effect on the visiting team. For Arizona, QB Kevin Kolb vows to play (turf toe) after missing the past four games. He’ll no doubt be handing off to Beanie Wells, who had 228 rushing yards in a 23-20 victory last week in St. Louis against the Rams’ league-worst rush defense. Wells probably won’t come close to that again.
Forecast: Cowboys 34, Cardinals 21
Green Bay (11-0) at N.Y. Giants (6-5)
Time: 1:15 p.m. PT
Line: Packers by 6½
Facts: The teams met in Green Bay in Week 16 last year with the Packers facing elimination from the wild-card race. GB won 45-17, which triggered its current franchise-record 17-game win streak. New York yielded 354 first-half yards in a 49-24 loss at New Orleans on Monday, the second most in a game this year. Green Bay was outgained by host Detroit in the first half last week 218-86, but led 7-0 at the break in a 27-15 victory.
Analysis: The Giants are facing a situation much like it had four weeks ago when it beat host Tom Brady and the Patriots 24-20 as a 9-point underdog. New England had the league’s No. 32 defense. Now comes Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ No. 30-rated unit. Maybe providing just the right motivation was NYG defensive coordinator saying his team quit on him last week in New Orleans . That should count for something.
Forecast: Giants 27, Packers 24
Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (8-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line: Saints by 9 (44½)
Facts: New Orleans opened its 2009 Super season with a 45-27 victory over visiting Detroit as a 14-point favorite. The Saints have since gone 3-9 ATS as a favorite of nine points or more, including a 31-21 loss at St. Louis five weeks ago as a -13½ favorite. Detroit’s Matt Stafford, who fractured his right index finger last month, pitched 9 INTs in his next three starts. He had four in his first eight games.
Analysis: The Saints seemed invincible offensively in their big win against the Giants, particularly on its four 80-plus-yard scoring drives. No team had four such drives since Green Bay in last year’s playoffs in Atlanta. Besides Stafford’s problems, RB Kevin Smith is questionable (ankle) and speedy Jahvid Best could be on IR any day. Expecting Stafford to keep up with New Orleans QB Drew Brees without a ground game is unreasonable.
Forecast: Saints 34, Lions 17Comment
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