12-11-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Week 14 NFL Trends & Angles

Let's call it Monday Night Magic. For each of the past two weeks, our Trends & Angles have included an angle that says to bet on teams coming off of Monday night wins of 17 points or more. Well, we just had our third consecutive Monday night blowout this past week with the Chargers routing the Jaguars, so here we go again!

Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (42-23, 64.6% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reason is this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. This angle won again last week with the Saints and the trend obviously says to take San Diego -7 in Week 14.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (81-54-2, 61.9% ATS since 2008): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on the results of the last three years, they may have over-adjusted the lines especially in this specific case of conference games where the visiting teams are fairly familiar with their next opponents. There are two qualifying plays under this angle for Week 14, but they may carry a parental advisory warning: the winless Indianapolis Cots +16½ and the Kansas City Chiefs +10½.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road game (272-199-13, 57.8% ATS since 2002): This is similar to the previous angle, except that this one entails all road underdogs (not just conference) and goes back much further for a nice sample size. It is rather remarkable that there is still a popular misconception that teams playing their second straight road game are automatically bad bets, as the oddsmakers have apparently been over-adjusting the back-to-back road factor when the road team is an underdog for nine full years now! In the years that we have been doing this column, this angle has produced the biggest profit over the last nine years, as it now stands at +53.1 units over 471 decisions based on odds of -110. There are four qualifying plays for Week 14, including the two dogs from the previous angle as well as two non-conference road dogs: Oakland +11 at Green Bay and Philadelphia +3 at Miami.

Play on any divisional road team looking to avenge a loss of 14 points or more (75-53, 58.6% since 2002): NFL teams or all professional teams for that matter do not like getting embarrassed, and most of them have long memories. This is especially true when the big loss was to a division rival that they face twice a year. There is one qualifier this week and it will be the St. Louis Rams Monday night.

During the month of December only, play against any road underdog coming off of three or more ATS wins (62-41-6, 60.2% ATS since 1985): If a team is an underdog this late in the year after three ATS wins when logic dictates that the team is peaking, there is usually a very good reason for it. Finding something that has gone over the magical 60 percent mark with at least 100 plays is pretty special, and this angle has one play in Week 14: Cincinnati -3 over a hot Houston Texans team.

Play on any road underdog coming off of six or more consecutive straight up losses (81-52-1, 60.9% ATS since 1985): We went all the way back to 1985 to make this sample size as meaningful as possible, and the results are quite good. These are teams that most squares would never bet their hard earned money on but that sharps love, as they are almost always getting added line value. This angle won again with the winless Colts in Week 13, and there is one qualifying play for Week 14 which is easy to figure out: the Colts +16½ again.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
NFL 70-65 Last 135 picks ($560)
1 OF 13,,, WoW!!!
Game: Buffalo at San Diego (Sunday 12/11 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Buffalo +7.5 (-115)

The Buffalo Bills looked like a playoff team early in the season as they got off to a 4-1 start. They have been reduced by injuries and the once 4-1 team has dropped five straight. As a result of that, and an impressive prime time win for San Diego last week, we get line value on Buffalo here. The Chargers remain overrated. They just broke a 6-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. So one good game means they are now worthy of a spread over a touchdown? This is a team that continues to dissappoint, and what was once a lot of talent that couldn't win despite having the #1 offense and #1 defense last year is no longer putting up those numbers. Their defense now ranks #12 and their offense is also middle of the pack. The offense has slipped because their QB Phillip Rivers has become a turnover machine. I need to see more than one win by this team to say they are back. After a few huge losses, the Bills are beginning to find their way. They lost their last two vs two winning teams by a total of 10 points, so this line certainly is suspect here. The Chargers haven't covered 7 points or more this season in three tries. The Bills are highly competitive vs. losing teams at 34-15-1 ATS in their last 50 playing against them.
Grab the points and play on Buffalo in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

Cowboys -3
Titans +3.5
OAK/GB ov51.5

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five

Green Bay -11.5
Washington +9
Philly +3
Denver -3.5
N.Y.Giants +3

[Mr. IWS]

Ferrigno Sunday NFL

San Francisco at Arizona under 40

Note: This is our NFL Total of the Year - HUGE

Over Small but not Medium
Houston at Cincinnati under 38
Chicago at Denver under 36
Giants at Dallas under 49

Small
Kansas City at N.Y. Jets under 36.5
Indianapolis at Baltimore under 41
New Orleans at Tennessee over 48.5

Cincinnati -3
Tennessee +3.5
Denver -3.5
N.Y. Giants +3.5

Small Teasers:

New England -1 AND Green Bay -4
Detroit -1 AND Green Bay -4

[Mr. IWS]

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.175; Baltimore 141.201
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 21; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 16; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-16); Under

Game 107-108: Houston at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 140.007; Cincinnati 134.869
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 109-110: Oakland at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.088; Green Bay 143.007
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11); Under

Game 111-112: Kansas City at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.060; NY Jets 135.460
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9); Over

Game 113-114: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.179; Detroit 131.561
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8); Under

Game 115-116: New Orleans at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.913; Tennessee 134.324
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+4); Over

Game 117-118: Philadelphia at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.662; Miami 134.139
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under

Game 119-120: New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.147; Washington 128.318
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8); Over

Game 121-122: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.025; Carolina 134.186
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 123-124: Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 121.455; Jacksonville 122.669
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 38
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+1); Over

Game 125-126: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.076; Arizona 131.812
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Chicago at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.045; Denver 133.090
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

Game 129-130: Buffalo at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.612; San Diego 136.381
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6 1/2); Over

Game 131-132: NY Giants at Dallas (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.305; Dallas 131.471
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3 1/2); Under

Game 133-134: St. Louis at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.480; Seattle 134.089
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 14 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5); Over

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

CAROLINA +3 over Atlanta

If you watch or listen to all the NFL shows on ESPN, NBC, FOX and CBS, then perhaps you’ve been brainwashed into thinking that the Atlanta Falcons are a good team that is playoff bound. These so-called experts are rarely right in anything they predict. If you’ve watched the Falcons this season, you know they are more fluff than stuff. They’re 7-5 but have beaten Philly, Seattle, Carolina, Detroit, Indy, Tennessee and Minnesota. There’s a great chance none of those teams are going to make the playoffs and Atlanta was very fortunate to win at least two of those games. The game against Carolina at Turner Field saw the Panthers carry a lead into the fourth quarter but Carolina turned the ball over five times in that game to Atlanta’s none and when you lose the turnover battle 5-0, winning is near impossible. The Panthers outgained their host by a 368-325 count. The Panthers have dropped three straight to their division mate and should be able to avenge this recent trend with their explosive offense against a visitor that scares nobody and that is falsely perceived as a playoff-caliber team. Play: Carolina +3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

MIAMI -3 over Philadelphia

Every team needs a leader and when the Eagles signed Micahel Vick they figured he was the guy. He’s not, he’s never been and he never will be. Despite being out, Vick is not vocal and he’s nowhere to be seen. By contrast, Peyton Manning can be seen on the sidelines every game and Jay Cutler has been quoted at least 15 times since he got knocked out. It’s no wonder the Eagles are a mess. Philadelphia has now lost four of five, displaying very little desire during the tailspin. Conversely, the Dolphins have won four of five and continue to ascend after their 0-7 start. Miami ’s solid defensive play has been a large contributor while the quarterback play of Matt Moore has been nothing short of extraordinary. Moore has thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception over past five and is among the top quarterbacks in passer rating over that span. With these two headed in opposite directions, expect a reverse of nature on this day as the fish get to feast on the birds. This is a cheap lay. Play: Miami –3 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

ARIZONA +4 over San Francisco

San Francisco could be caught napping here after locking up the NFC West last week and with a Monday night home date against the Steelers on deck. Such a snooze could prove costly as the Cardinals are quietly putting together a respectable second half, having won four of last five and doing it in much the same way as the Niners do, with good defense and few offensive mistakes. Arizona has allowed just five touchdowns in its past five games and with playmakers like stud WR Larry Fitzergerald, emerging RB Beanie Wells, QB Kevin Kolb’s second game back from injury and kick return extraordinaire Patrick Peterson, an upset is a distinct possibility. San Fran has been going to good for too long and that intensity level is unsustainable over the entire 16-game schedule. This is the day the 49ers relax. Play: Arizona +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

THE Rest with no wagers

Indianapolis +16½ over BALTIMORE

Colts have nothing to lose, except a 13th straight game and that should find them loose and tossing the ball around as they did in New England last week when amassing a season-high 338 passing yards. This is a hefty spot for a Baltimore team that has exceeded 23 points just once in past five games. The last time the Ravens were favored by 16½? Never. Play Indianapolis +16½ (No bets).

WASHINGTON +8½ over New England

Washington’s pass rush is dangerous enough to keep this one within range against a New England squad that has defensive issues, despite its solid record. Rex Grossman remains at quarterback for the ‘Skins and while he can be careless, he’s not afraid to throw it downfield against this leaky secondary. Down the stretch these teams headed for the playoffs are not as interested in going all out for four quarters as they are at the start of the year when injuries have time to heal. New England is a vulnerable team because of aforementioned poor defense. Play: Washington +8½ (No bets).

TENNESSEE +4 over New Orleans

The Saints have been featured on prime time for two weeks and those games have a way of sticking in the minds of betters. They bludgeoned the Giants two weeks ago and buried the Lions last week. Why then are they just a 4-point choice here when the books could’ve made them –6 and not sway a single bet. It’s always a danger sign when everyone is on one team and the Saints are that team this week. Saints are nasty when playing in their own building but have dropped two of past three away, including one to the woeful Rams. If Saints arrive here overconfident after consecutive home wins, they’ll be in for a difficult afternoon against this scrappy Tennessee squad that is fighting for a post-season berth. Looks like a trap so proceed with caution. Play: Tennessee +4 (No bets).

N.Y. JETS –10½ over Kansas City

Jets have won consecutive games and may have to win out to qualify for this year’s post-season. They couldn’t ask for a more accommodating visitor. The Chiefs have scored 35 combined points over their past five games and without skilled offensive players, their chances of competing are limited. Line keeps moving upwards but one really has top wonder how the Chiefs are going to score anything. Play: N.Y. Jets –10½ (No bets).

Tampa Bay –2 over JACKSONVILLE

This is a process of elimination game, as the Jags aren’t playable and that leaves the Buccaneers. For the Jags, the coach got the axe and the owner bailed but between the lines it was the same two-week old litter box. How bad are the Jags? Well, the fact that we’re forced to play against them when the Creamsicles are getting more dysfunctional as the season winds down. Shut down corner Aqib Talib has a hamstring injury and DL Brian Price was literally told to go home during the Carolina game by head coach Raheem Morris, who admitted the move in the post game presser with a "F-yeah". LeGarrette Blount threw Josh Johnson under the bus when the rushing game faltered last week and reportedly Blount was part of a group that severely beat a man who was too scared to press charges. Oh yeah, and the offense is worse and the defense gives up more points, yet the Jags are so bad that we can’t play them unless an abundance of points are being offered. Play: Tampa Bay –2 (No bets).

Houston +3 over TEXAS

After a surprising 6-2 start to the season, the Bengals have dropped three of four as their schedule toughened and they’ve been simply outclassed. Cincinnati ’s run defense has been struggling after strong start and that won’t bode well against Houston ’s powerful ground game. Play: Houston +3 (No bets).

Minnesota +10 over DETROIT

Vikings are beat up but this opponent is in a fragile state of its own after a tumultuous season that has Detroit facing public and league scrutiny over its undisciplined style of play. That type of distraction may be just enough for Minnesota to avenge an earlier 3-point loss in a game they bled by 23 points. It looks like Christian Ponder is a no go and that’s why this line is so high but it’s still inflated after Vikes scored 30 and still lost to the Tebows. Play: Minnesota +10½ (No bets).

Chicago +3½ over DENVER

Broncos’ stock is at its peak while Chicago ’s continues to spiral. But don’t wise investors recommend selling high, buying low? The Tim Tebow saga has been nothing short of miraculous. However, this is first time that Denver is ask to spot points under Tebow’s guidance and that’s a commodity worth shorting. Play: Chicago +3½ (No bets).

GREEN BAY –11 over Oakland

The Raiders are too banged up to field a competent team and after flying through three time zones with this makeshift line-up, to play in the cool confines of Lambeau, against the undefeated Packers, we wouldn’t be surprised if some of the Oakland players refuse to get off the airplane. Play: Green Bay –11 (No bets).

SAN DIEGO –7 over Buffalo

Difficult to back Bills with their cluster injury problem and inept defense but the Chargers warrant less respect than a substitute teacher. Dare we say it but San Diego is not quite out of division race and with their customary strong Decembers and something to potentially play for, we’ll cautiously lean that way. Play San Diego –7 (No bets).

DALLAS –3½ over N.Y. Giants

After playing at New England, at San Fran, hosting rival Eagles, a Monday nighter in New Orleans and then coming up a tad short in an exhausting effort against the undefeated Packers, the Giants may be out of gas. The Cowboys are a screwy bunch but a win here gives them a stranglehold on division and given the circumstances, we’ll count on them to come through. Play: Dallas –3½ (No bets).

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

NFL
5 UNITS Tennessee Titans +4
4 UNIT New York Giants +3.5
4 UNITS Cincinnati Bengals -3

[Mr. IWS]

Stu Feiner

tenn.
ariz.
Dallas.
Jets
minn
buffalo
cinn
Philly
chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe

***NFL Conference Game of the Year***

big Unit Play Take #108 Cincinnati -3 over Houston (1:00pm est):

[Mr. IWS]

GASH-O-MATIC
early release-- UNDER 45.5 PHI/MIA

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

DOLPHINS -3 vs eagles
TEXANS +3 at bengals
BRONCOS -3 vs bears
49'ERS -4 at cardinals
GIANTS +4 at cowboys (SNF)
SEAHAWKS -10 vs rams (MNF)

[Mr. IWS]

Rickenbach Sunday NFL

10* Green Bay Over
8* Tennessee
10* Philadelphia
8* NY Giants

[Mr. IWS]

dave cokin

nfl goy miami