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POINTWISE PHONES:
3* Tenn, Giants, Seattle(Mon), under Atl/Car, Detroit
2* San Fran, over Dall/Giants, Buff, Denver
3* Tenn, Giants, Seattle(Mon), under Atl/Car, Detroit
2* San Fran, over Dall/Giants, Buff, Denver
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*** DCI Pro Football ***
•Week 14 Predictions
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Houston 24, CINCINNATI 17
DETROIT 31, Minnesota 23
New Orleans 27, TENNESSEE 21
MIAMI 26, Philadelphia 14
N.Y. JETS 22, Kansas City 13
New England 31, WASHINGTON 14
Atlanta 26, CAROLINA 20
JACKSONVILLE 20, Tampa Bay 18
BALTIMORE 35, Indianapolis 5
San Francisco 19, ARIZONA 15
DENVER 24, Chicago 21
GREEN BAY 37, Oakland 22
SAN DIEGO 30, Buffalo 18
Dallas 26, N.Y. Giants 24
•Monday, December 12, 2011
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SEATTLE 24, St. Louis 10Comment
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Tip Sheet - Week 14
By Kevin Rogers
Four games remain for each team in the NFL regular season (except for the Steelers and Browns) with plenty on the line heading into January. From a gambling perspective, favorites of between 2½ and 3½ points were poisonous for the first 11 weeks of the season. These chalky squads owned a 19-25-4 ATS record (43%) until Thanksgiving, but that number turned around with an 8-3 ATS mark the last two weeks. Five teams are in this situation on Sunday afternoon, including four clubs in playoff contention. We'll begin in Nashville with the surging Saints looking for an interconference victory at Tennessee.
Saints (-3½, 48½) at Titans
Things are clicking at the right time for New Orleans, as the Saints go for their fifth consecutive victory against a feisty Tennessee team. Sean Payton's club improved to 6-0 SU/ATS at the Superdome after beating the fading Lions, 31-17, moving their point total to 80 in the last two wins. The Titans return home following a 23-17 triumph at Buffalo, while cashing the 'under' for the sixth consecutive contest.
For all the success the Saints have seen at home, New Orleans are just 2-4 ATS away from the Big Easy, while going 3-8 ATS in its previous 11 road contests. Making matters dicey for Saints' backers is the 1-6 ATS road ledger since last November, including a 1-3 ATS mark this season. On the flip side, the Titans are rolling from an ATS standpoint by covering five of their last six games, while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three opportunities as an underdog.
Texans at Bengals (-3, 38)
Houston continued its Merry-Go-Round at the quarterback position as T.J. Yates led the Texans to an important 17-10 victory over Atlanta last Sunday. The Texans remained two games ahead of the Titans in the AFC South, while still jockeying for a potential first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bengals are happy to see a team that isn't named the Steelers or Ravens, losing each of their last three games to the top two teams in the AFC North. Cincinnati is still right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race at 7-5, tied with the Jets, Raiders, Broncos, and Titans for the last playoff spot.
The offense has taken many hits this season in Houston, most notably the injury to starting quarterback Matt Schaub. However, the Texans' defense has stepped up with Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams out by holding each of their last six opponents to 14 points or less (6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS). Cincinnati was held to its lowest point total of the season in last Sunday's 35-7 drubbing at Pittsburgh, while the Bengals go for their fourth home win of 2011 this week. The Bengals have won and covered at home as a favorite only once this season, coming back in Week 6 against the 0-12 Colts.
Eagles at Dolphins (-3, 45)
Philadelphia is listed as an underdog for only the third time this season, even though the Eagles have stumbled to a dreadful 4-8 record. Andy Reid's squad heads to South Florida after getting blasted in Seattle last Thursday night, 31-14, the fourth straight game that the Eagles were limited to less than 20 points. The last thing the Eagles want to see is a red-hot Dolphins' team, who bounced back from an 0-7 start to win four of their previous five games, including last week's 34-14 blowout of the Raiders.
Michael Vick returns to the Eagles' lineup this week after missing the last three games with a rib injury, replacing the ineffective Vince Young, who tossed eight interceptions and just four touchdowns in this stretch. The Dolphins are the club to back at this point from an ATS perspective, covering six consecutive games, including three straight as home favorites. Both these teams don't fare the same against interconference foes, as the Dolphins own a 6-2 ATS mark the last eight games against the NFC, while the Eagles are only 2-7 ATS the past nine games versus AFC opponents.
Falcons (-3, 47½) at Panthers
Atlanta hits the road once again after getting bounced at Houston last Sunday by a rookie quarterback. This time, the Falcons' defense will face the top pick from this past April's draft in Cam Newton, who has led the Panthers to consecutive road victories at Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. Mike Smith's club faces three opponents in the next four weeks who are out of playoff contention, so Atlanta needs to get the job done here to improve to 8-5.
The Falcons have not yet lost back-to-back games this season, while going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS off a defeat. Dating back to Matt Ryan's rookie season of 2008, as the Falcons are a sterling 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS coming off a loss, including a 4-1 ATS mark against division opponents. The Panthers have covered four of six home games, while cashing as substantial 'dogs in losses to the Packers and Saints. Atlanta has turned into one of the best 'under' teams in the league with eight consecutive 'unders,' while holding six of the last seven opponents to 17 points or less.
Bears at Broncos (-3½, 35½)
The Tim Tebow express keeps delivering wins, as Denver goes for its seventh victory in eight tries against a banged-up Chicago squad. Jay Cutler will not participate against the team that drafted him in 2006, while Matt Forte (who is three rushing yards shy of 1,000) is out for at least the next two games with an MCL injury suffered in last week's surprising loss to the Chiefs. The Broncos, meanwhile, have a chance to sit atop the AFC West race all by themselves with a victory and an Oakland loss at Green Bay.
Tebow may not put up the most attractive offensive numbers for a quarterback, but the former Heisman Trophy winner has led the Broncos to five straight covers, including three in a row on the final possession. However, Denver has struggled at Invesco Field against the number by posting a 1-4 ATS mark this season, with the lone cover coming against the Jets in Week 11. The Bears own a 1-3 ATS mark as a road underdog, including double-digit losses at New Orleans and Detroit.Comment
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NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 14 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Why Falcons cover: They’re in the playoff hunt and would like to stay in it, so they’ve got plenty of motivation to get the win and cover. Atlanta 15-5-1 ATS last 21 vs. losing teams, while Carolina 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams. Then there’s this unusual stat: Falcons 12-1 ATS last 13 after scoring less than 15 in previous game.
Why Panthers cover: QB Cam Newton sure doesn’t look like a rookie. The guy can throw (3,297 yards) and run (513 yards, 13 TDs), and he even had a big reception in last week’s 38-19 rout at Tampa. Home team in this rivalry has covered six of last seven.
Total (48): Falcons flying low a lot lately, with total going under eight games in a row. Under also 12-3-1 last 16 Atlanta-Carolina meetings in Charlotte.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)
Why Colts cover: They’ve been double-digit dogs four times this season and they’ve cashed three times in that spot, including last week’s 31-24 loss at New England catching a whopping 20.5 points. In this rivalry, Indy also on 7-0 ATS roll overall and has covered four straight in Baltimore.
Why Ravens cover: Offense seems to be getting in gear, particularly RB Ray Rice, who went haywire last week for 204 yards in a rout at Cleveland. And defense among league’s best, standing third in points allowed (16.0) and yards allowed (287.3).
Total (41): These two teams have met regularly over the past several years and one common theme has been unders, which are 7-1 in last eight contests.
Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Why Eagles cover: The really bad Dream Team welcomes back QB Michael Vick (broken ribs), who returns after missing three games, which could help Philly halt season-killing 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Miami 1-5 ATS last six vs. losing teams.
Why Dolphins cover: Fish are among hottest teams at betting window lately, covering in six straight games and taking four of last five SU. Philly has dumped six in a row ATS against losing teams.
Total (45): Over has hit in 10 of Philly’s last 12 roadies, but Miami on bundle of under streaks, including 9-1-1 overall.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Why Saints cover: They’re on a hot streak as they surge toward the playoffs, winning and covering last four in a row, including the last three over playoff contenders Atlanta, the Giants and Detroit. New Orleans putting up 32.8 ppg (second) with league’s most productive offense (448.7 ypg).
Why Titans cover: They’ve also cashed four straight (3-1 SU) and are stout in the underdog role, with ATS streaks of 5-1 overall and 9-2 at home. And RB Chris Johnson finally looking like, well, Chris Johnson, following up 190-yard day against Tampa Bay with 153 yards in win at Buffalo last week. Saints 3-8 ATS last 11 on highway.
Total (48.5): Titans tend to keep score low lately, with under on runs of 6-0 overall, 4-1 at home.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (N/A)
Why Vikings cover: Vikings catching Detroit in a big downslide, as Lions are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games. It appears stud RB Adrian Peterson will return, which will help Minnesota. Vikes 7-3-3 ATS last 13 in this NFC North rivalry.
Why Lions cover: Getting desperate for victories to avoid falling out of playoff chase. Despite recent drought, Lions still 10-4 ATS last 14 at home dome.
Total: Under 8-2 last 10 roadies for Vikings, 4-1 last five at home for Lions, 6-1 last seven in this rivalry and 4-0 last four Minny-Detroit clashes in Motor City.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)
Why Chiefs cover: Coming off 10-3 road upset of Chicago as 9-point underdogs. In fact, K.C. likes the underdog role, going 7-1 ATS last eight overall and 4-1 ATS last five as road pup.
Why Jets cover: If Mark Sanchez & Co. want to stay in this playoff chase, they’ve got to win some games and look like a playoff team in doing so. Maybe facing a losing team is just what they need, as they are 4-1 ATS last five against sub-.500 units.
Total (36.5): Add up Kansas City’s point totals for the past five games and you don’t even get to 36.5, with Chiefs scoring 10 points twice and single digits three times. Under has hit seven in a row for Todd Haley’s troops. On flip side, over 22-8 in Jets’ last 30 overall.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Why Texans cover: Arian Foster can help mask a lot of weaknesses, such as playing third-string QB T.J. Yates. Foster already has 916 rushing yards and another 510 receiving, helping surging Houston to six consecutive SU wins and a 5-0-1 ATS mark in that stretch. Cincy on ill-timed nosedive, losing three of last four SU while going 0-3-1 ATS.
Why Bengals cover: They’ve got to bounce back at some point and facing Texans perhaps not as bad as facing Pittsburgh twice and Baltimore once, as Cincy has done during its current slide. This is Bengals’ chance to restore playoff hopes.
Total (37.5): Texans on over runs of 8-2 as dogs, 6-1 as road pups and 24-9 vs. winning teams, and Bengals on over surges of 7-2 overall and 4-0 at home.
New England Patriots (-9) at Washington Redskins
Why Patriots cover: It’s time for the postseason push, and New England is just far superior to Washington. Pats have won four straight, with three wins coming by 18 points or more. Conversely, Skins have dumped seven of last eight SU and gone 2-6 ATS in that stretch.
Why Redskins cover: This is a tough one. About all that can be said is nine points is a lot to be getting at home, particularly since Pats beat winless Colts by just a touchdown last week in Foxborough.
Total (47.5): Final score has gone over in three of last four for both these teams and over 11-4 in Pats’ last 15 roadies. But Washington sports under streaks of 8-2 vs. winning teams and 13-6 overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (N/A)
Why Buccaneers cover: For the pride of being the best NFL team in Florida north of Miami. Now that’s a lot to play for. Miserable Jags opened 2011 season with win and cover and have gone 2-9 SU (3-7-1 ATS) since then.
Why Jaguars cover: This team is nothing to write home about, but lately, you wouldn’t even want to pay for the stamp with Tampa Bay, which is on a 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS freefall.
Total: Jags average just 12.7 ppg (31st), and Bucs have scored 19 or less five times during their current skid. Under 6-1 Jacksonville’s last seven.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the NFL covering the number better than Niners this year, who are a stout 10-1-1 ATS, two games better than any other team in the league. And San Fran owns this NFC West rivalry, cashing six straight overall (5-1 SU) and five in a row in the desert.
Why Cardinals cover: This is a team on the upswing, though far too late to make a difference. Cardinals on 4-1 SU and ATS run, including overtime upset of visiting Cowboys last week. Niners 3-9-1 ATS last 13 as road chalk.
Total (39.5): Tons of under streaks for both teams. San Fran on under stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on highway and 8-2-1 as road favorite. Arizona on under runs of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in NFC West and 10-4 at home.
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Why Bears cover: After dropping last two games, they need a win badly to stay relevant in NFC playoff picture. Denver 16-34-1 ATS last 54 games as home favorite.
Why Broncos cover: Denver has won five in a row SU and ATS, and Bears – already reeling at loss of QB Jay Cutler –won’t have stud RB Matt Forte this week. That puts lot of pressure on inexperienced QB Caleb Hanie.
Total (35.5): Denver has played some ugly offensive games, with under hitting three in a row before last week’s explosion in 35-32 win at Minnesota. Yet the Tebows are on over streaks of 5-1 at home, 10-1 laying points and 9-2 in December. Over has also hit in four of Chicago’s last five.
Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)
Why Bills cover: Bills had terrific start to season but have been awful for weeks. That said, Chargers have been huge disappointment and are just 1-6 SU and ATS last seven.
Why Chargers cover: Maybe, just maybe, they turned corner in 38-14 road rout of Jacksonville last week. Amazingly enough, San Diego could still win AFC West, so they’ve got plenty to play for, while Bills are virtually dead in playoff race after losing five straight games (1-4 ATS).
Total (47.5): Bills tend to play to over (9-3-1 last 13 overall, 6-0-1 last seven roadies), but under seems to be the play with Chargers at Qualcomm, hitting nine of last 10.
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11)
Why Raiders cover: Lambeau Field is not where you want to travel right now, but still, 11 points is a lot to be catching – Pack 8-17-2 ATS last 27 laying more than 10. Oakland in a good bounce-back bet, cashing seven of last eight after SU loss and they’d covered six straight on highway before last week’s letdown at Miami.
Why Packers cover: Why not? Almost nothing bad to say about defending Super Bowl champs, who have won 18 consecutive games and gone 13-5 against spread in that span. Packers lead league at 35 ppg, a dozen more than Raiders’ average (22.8). And Aaron Rodgers is just ridiculous – 37 TDs, 5 INTs.
Total (52.5): Over has been play in four of Raiders’ last five and five of Packers last six.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Why Giants cover: It’s do-or-die for Big Blue, who can put very ill-timed four-game slide behind them if they can knock off NFC East rival, whom they’ve beaten on last two trips to Dallas. Cowboys on several noteworthy pointspread purges, including 1-5 overall, 3-13-1 laying points and 5-14 in December.
Why Cowboys cover: Giants also struggling in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 1-4 in division play and 2-6-1 against winning teams. And Dallas has been stewing all week while getting grilled by media for overtime loss at Arizona. Cowboys have incentive with chance to take full control of NFC East.
Total (48.5): Last four games in this rivalry have all gone high and featured minimum of 53 points. Last year’s clash in Dallas was a 41-35 win for New York, and in 2009, Giants won 33-31.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (N/A)
Why Rams cover: More important, why is this game in the Monday night spotlight? Not much to say in Rams’ defense, but Seattle 2-6 ATS last eight in December.
Why Seahawks cover: Despite starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB, Seattle 7-2-1 ATS last 10 games. And Seahawks have Rams’ number, cashing eight of last nine overall and four in a row at home.
Total: Rams are like pimply faced kid at the prom, hoping to score, but it never really happens. St. Louis averaging league-worst 11.7 ppg. That makes it reasonable to think under, which is 4-1 in Rams’ last five overall and 18-7-1 last 26 inside NFC West. Seattle, though, on over streaks of 5-0 at home, 6-0 in December and 17-6 overall.Comment
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Today's NHL Picks
San Jose at Chicago
The Sharks look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Jose is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110). Here are all of today's picks.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11
Time Posted 7:30 a.m. ESTGame 51-52: San Jose at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.235; Chicago 10.576
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110); OverGame 53-54: Florida at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.027; NY Rangers 12.878
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-150); UnderComment
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NCAA Basketball Picks
Detroit at Alabama
The Crimson Tide look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 3-12-3 ATS in its last 18 road games. Alabama is the pick (-13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tide favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-13 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. ESTGame 841-842: Southern Illinois at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 48.333; Western Michigan 55.350
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 7; 138
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 8 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+8 1/2); OverGame 843-844: Santa Clara at Washington State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 58.129; Washington State 60.936
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 3; 137
Vegas Line: Washington State by 6 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+6 1/2); UnderGame 845-846: New Mexico State at UTEP (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.149; UTEP 57.398
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 3; 138
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 5; 135
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+5); OverGame 847-848: Detroit at Alabama (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 54.548; Alabama 71.085
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 16 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Alabama by 13 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-13 1/2); UnderGame 849-850: UC-Davis at Hawaii (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 43.116; Hawaii 52.203
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 9; 142
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 11; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (+11); UnderGame 851-852: Jacksonville State at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 45.999; Tulane 62.889
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 17; 144
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AGame 853-854: NC-Greensboro at Florida State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 43.866; Florida State 67.348
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 23 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Florida State by 26; 137
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+26); UnderGame 855-856: UC-Riverside at Montana State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 48.169; Montana State 52.757
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 4 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Montana State by 6; 128
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (+6); OverGame 857-858: Murray State at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 61.489; Memphis 70.327
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 9; 144
Vegas Line: Memphis by 11; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (+11); OverGame 859-860: Eastern Washington at CS-Fullerton (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 54.137; CS-Fullerton 54.468
Dunkel Line: Even; 138
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 3; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+3); UnderGame 861-862: Iona at Marshall (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 66.192; Marshall 66.362
Dunkel Line: Even; 148
Vegas Line: Marshall by 2; 152
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+2); UnderGame 871-872: Coppin State at Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coppin State 44.547; Illinois 72.240
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 27 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Illinois by 18 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-18 1/2); OverComment
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DCI CBB
Season
Straight Up: 1041-322 (.764)
ATS: 375-444 (.458)
ATS Vary Units: 1409-1842 (.433)
Over/Under: 406-399 (.504)
Over/Under Vary Units: 592-548 (.519)
Etech Lumberjack Classic
Final Round at Nacogdoches, TX
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 66, Fairleigh Dickinson 56
Skip Prosser Classic
at New Orleans, LA
TULANE 65, Jacksonville State 53
Non-Conference
ALABAMA 78, Detroit 59
BOSTON COLLEGE 65, Stony Brook 58
CAL STATE FULLERTON 75, Eastern Washington 73
CALIFORNIA 80, Jackson State 51
DAYTON 78, USC Upstate 56
FAIRFIELD 65, New Hampshire 46
FLORIDA STATE 83, UNC Greensboro 54
FURMAN 69, Jacksonville 62
HAWAI'I 83, UC Davis 68
Idaho 74, SEATTLE 69
ILLINOIS 81, Coppin State 54
Iona 78, MARSHALL 77
KANSAS STATE 78, North Florida 57
MEMPHIS 73, Murray State 66
MONTANA STATE 67, UC Riverside 64
NC STATE 86, North Carolina Central 64
SACRED HEART 75, Lafayette 72
SOUTH ALABAMA 77, Alcorn State 59
SOUTH FLORIDA 76, Florida A&M 48
UTEP 69, New Mexico State 68
VERMONT 67, Quinnipiac 59
VIRGINIA TECH 74, Norfolk State 57
WASHINGTON STATE 73, Santa Clara 70
WESTERN MICHIGAN 70, Southern Illinois 60Comment
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