12-24-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24
Time Posted: 1:00 p.m. EST (12/11) Game 213-214: Nevada vs. Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 92.571; Southern Mississippi 104.816
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 12; 57
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 6; 61
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-6); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/21)

Game 103-104: Oakland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.672; Kansas City 134.201 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 42 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Under

Game 105-106: Denver at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.128; Buffalo 125.046 Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 37 Vegas Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.669; Tennessee 134.875 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 12; 44 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7 1/2; 40 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-7 1/2); Over

Game 109-110: Arizona at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.814; Cincinnati 132.311 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.935; New England 143.683 Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: New England by 9 1/2; 49 Dunkel Pick: New England (-9 1/2); Under

Game 113-114: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.245; Baltimore 141.201 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 42 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 13; 38 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-13); Over

Game 115-116: NY Giants at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.451; NY Jets 131.334 Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 42 Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under

Game 117-118: Minnesota at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.248; Washington 128.318 Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 48 Vegas Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Tampa Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 117.408; Carolina 137.242 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 20; 46 Vegas Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-7 1/2); Under

Game 121-122: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.328; Pittsburgh 137.191 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 18; 43 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 37 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-15 1/2); Over

Game 123-124: San Diego at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.875; Detroit 133.727 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 47 Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: San Francisco at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 134.795; Seattle 138.624 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 41 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 38 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

Game 127-128: Philadelphia at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 136.885; Dallas 133.912 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46 Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2 1/2); Under

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB

Saturday, December 24, 2011
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Southern Miss 41, Nevada 30

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NFL

Saturday, December 24, 2011
Denver 28, BUFFALO 20
CINCINNATI 20, Arizona 19
WASHINGTON 27, Minnesota 20
CAROLINA 33, Tampa Bay 18
BALTIMORE 22, Cleveland 9
TENNESSEE 23, Jacksonville 14
KANSAS CITY 22, Oakland 17
NEW ENGLAND 32, Miami 15
N.Y. JETS 33, N.Y. Giants 22
PITTSBURGH 26, St. Louis 4
San Diego 30, DETROIT 27
San Francisco vs. SEATTLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Philadelphia 26, DALLAS 24

[Mr. IWS]

moneysmartsports

Giants-5.5
packers 11
Baltimore 1.5
New Orleans 7.5
Cincinnati -7

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus early text : Seahawks+3

[Mr. IWS]

TEXAS SPORTS SYNDICATE hit the Giants to beat the Jets OUTRIGHT

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

CFB
Nevada Wolf Pack @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles --Pack +6.0

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Saturday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Nevada vs Southern Mississippi OVER 62.5

[Mr. IWS]

Week 16 NFL Trends & Angles
We have an interesting conflict atop our Trends & Angles in Week 16.
First off, the Monday Night Magic angle won for the fourth straight week when the Seahawks followed up their big win last Monday by upsetting the Bears on Sunday. Then, we had another Monday night win by at least 17 points (in this case exactly 17) by the San Francisco 49ers over the Steelers this week, putting the angle in play for the fifth straight week this Saturday.

That is where we have our conundrum, as that was the 11th win of the season for the 49ers and they are road favorites this week, which sets up a nice contrarian angle that says to play against them. We will lead off with that brand new angle before rehashing the Monday Night system.

Play against any road favorite after it has won its 11th game of the season (56-27, 67.5% ATS since 1989): Teams that have won 11 games are more often than not playoff teams that do not need to run up scores late in the year, and as you can see fading these teams as road chalk has been like a gold mine. This angle is already 2-0 ATS this season, as the Packers failed to cover at the Giants and at Kansas City (losing outright) after getting Win #11. There is one qualifier this week, and it is the Seattle Seahawks +2 at home vs. the 49ers.

Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (44-23, 65.7% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reason is this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. This angle continues to an ATM machine this year cashing for the fourth straight week in Week 15 when the underdog Seahawks won outright. The obvious qualifier this week is the 49ers -2, which is unfortunately in conflict with our feature angle.

Play on any road underdog coming off of six or more consecutive straight up losses (82-52-1, 61.2% ATS since 1985): We went all the way back to 1985 to make this sample size as meaningful as possible, and the results are quite good. These are teams that most squares would never bet their hard earned money on but that sharps love, as they are almost always getting added line value. This angle won again with the then winless Colts in both Week 13 and Week 14, and after a week off, the trend is back with two qualifying plays in Week 16: Minnesota +6½ and Tampa Bay +7½.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (82-56-2, 59.4% ATS since 2008): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on the results of the last three full seasons plus this one, they may have over-adjusted the lines especially in this specific case of conference games where the visiting teams are fairly familiar with their next opponents. There are three qualifying plays under this angle for Week 16; Cleveland +12½, Jacksonville +7½ and Miami +9½.

Play on any divisional road team looking to avenge a loss of 14 points or more (75-53, 58.6% since 2002): NFL teams or all professional teams for that matter do not like getting embarrassed, and most of them have long memories. This is especially true when the big loss was to a division rival that they face twice a year. There are four big qualifiers for this angle for Week 16: Oakland +2½, Miami +9½, Cleveland +12½ and Tampa Bay +7½.

During the month of December only, play against any road underdog coming off of three or more ATS wins (62-42-6, 59.6% ATS since 1985): If a team is an underdog this late in the year after three ATS wins when logic dictates that the team is peaking, there is usually a very good reason for it. Finding something that has gone over the magical 60 percent mark with at least 100 plays is pretty special, and this angle has one play in Week 16: the Detroit Lions -2½ over the re-hot San Diego Chargers.

Play against any favorite playing a "bad team" after it played a "good team" the previous week (88-61-2, 58.5% ATS since 2002): This is one of our favorite angles, as it actually quantifies what good and bad teams are. For the purposes of our weekly angles and trends, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its last 18 games, and a bad team is defined as a team that has lost at least 12 of its last 18 games. This is the essence of the Letdown Theory, and the fact that it is now quantified and has produced the results we expected makes this angle that much stronger. This angle went a perfect 2-0 ATS in Week 15 wining with Cleveland and Indianapolis, and the ugly qualifier for Week 16 is the St. Louis Rams +15½ at Pittsburgh.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Play from Doc´s Sports
#27 Take Minnesota Vikings +6.5 over Washington Redskins (Saturday 1 p.m. Fox)
The Redskins are coming off their best performance of the season, a game in which they dominated the New York Giants. But that being said, this team is not good enough to be laying this many points, as they are very inconsistent. The Redskins have won just two games since Oct. 2 and the underdog is the only side to consider in this matchup. The Vikings are no good either, but they still do have talent at a couple of key positions and that will allow them to remain in this game for 60 minutes. Minnesota was depleted last year when they went into Washington and beat the Skins, 17-13, and it would not surprise me if that happens again in 2011. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

[Mr. IWS]

Free NFL Prediction From Indian Cowboy:
Take #126 Seattle (+1) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 24)
For starters, these two coaches hate each other's guts. From the Stanford vs. USC days and running up the score up on each other, to winning as a 40-point underdog outright on the road with a third-string quarterback, the history is deep between these two coaches. In fact, the best thing that probably happened to Pete Carroll's coaching was Jim Harbaugh. Carroll now has to work for a playoff spot rather than finishing below .500 and being given home field advantage against the Saints. Seattle has worked its way up to 7-7 and that is primarily due a defense that is young, athletic and opportunistic. I know we were on the Niners against the Steelers on MNF, but this is a dangerous game for San Fran. Seattle has revenge from a big loss earlier this year and has covered their last 6 of 7 contests, including winning their last three games by a combined total of 58 points against the Bears, Rams and Eagles. I like the Seahawks at home here where they typically play well, as they seek an outside shot at the playoffs and with San Fran likely having a letdown after the big MNF win. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5

Chargers +2 Lions
Seahawks +2 49ers
Eagles +1 Cowboys
Giants +3 Jets
Broncos -3 Bills

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

N.Y. Giants +135 over N.Y. JETS PINNACLE
It makes little sense to us that the Jets are favored here. For those that aren’t aware, these two share this stadium and any home field advantage is removed. Sure, the Jets have a slightly better record but we believe the Giants are the better team. Not unexpectedly, the G-Men hiccupped last week when losing to the Redskins after a grueling stretch of schedule. These are all playoff games from here on out. The Giants must win both the final games to have any control of what can translate into a division win and there will be no wild card in the making. Either win the NFC East or sit at home is the reality. Unlike the G-Men, the Jets control their own destiny with a win here and a win in Miami next week. Big deal. Eli Manning can throw for 400 a game while Sanchez is out of character when throwing for over a deuce. There is no more room for error and that being said, give us the stronger quarterback with the better pass rushing team in a situation that has become almost signature to the Giants. Keep the points. Play: N.Y. Giants +135 (Risking 2 units).

BALTIMORE –12½ over Cleveland PINNACLE
Ravens figure to be in a ‘fowl’ mood after embarrassment at San Diego on Monday and that suits our purposes just fine. Baltimore is a much better team at home, having gone 7-0 as hosts while outscoring its opposition by a combined 199-105. At this time of year, teams with feeble offenses tend to wither, as their defense is overworked and simply out of gas. Cleveland’s offense is one of the league’s weaker units with only the Rams and Chiefs having scored fewer points. Brownies figure to be mentally drained too after blowing a nice lead in Arizona last week before losing it in OT. It sure doesn’t help that this will be the Brownies third consecutive road game and that the Ravens love beating up on inferior teams because they can’t beat top echelon teams. Play: Baltimore –12½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

BUFFALO +125 over Denver PINNACLE
YouTube will be busy, as Tim Tebow throwing in the cold and windy confines of the Ralph Stadium should provide some outstanding entertainment. This is really a classic case of buying low and selling high. The Broncos bubble finally burst last week and it may not stop. There was a reason Denver lost five of its first seven and Tebow does not make them better. He had them fired up and he’s the story of the year but even “Rudy” had his 10 minutes of fame. Buffalo remains in a funk but seemed to locate its offense last week with over 400 yards of total offense. With Denver’s limited scoring ability and extremely limited QB in that wind tunnel in Buffalo, expect the fired up Bills to give one last hurrah against a team that’s getting too much coverage. Play: Buffalo +125 (Risking 2 units).

Arizona +4½ over CINCINNATI SportsInteraction
With all the divas removed, the Bengals have been a nice story this season. However, there are still shortcomings that remain and while they aren’t so apparent against the league’s weak sisters, they are evident when stepping up in class. The Cardinals may not be blue chip but they are on a roll with six wins in past seven games and they’ve looked darn good in doing so. The Bengals have won just twice in their past six games with those victories occurring against the punchless Rams and Browns. Cincinnati has not defeated a winning team thus far and asking them to win by a margin cannot be recommended. Play: Arizona +4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).