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Paul Leiner 1500* Over 47 Jets/Giants
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Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/ Jacksonville Under 40: Very odd last 5 weeks of scored for this tina team as 4 of their last 5 games have landed right at 40, while on game posted just 39 points. Tennessee home games this year have averaged just 39.2 ppg, while Jacksonville road games have averaged just 32.6 ppg. The Jags offense has been pathetic for much of the year and they come in putting up just 14.8 ppg overall and a sorry 11 ppg on the road. Blaine Gabbart has given this offense some hope for the future, but they are still 32 in total offense and 32nd in passing offense. The Jag defense though has had no sorst of problems as they come in ranked 4th overall and 4th vs the pass. That helps us a bit here as Tennessee is not really a passing team anyway and despite the fact that they are 31st in running, they have started to feed Chris Johnson the ball down the stretch and they have put up 141 ypg on the ground in their last 3. The Jags are just middle of the pack (14th) vs the run, so I expect the Titans to continue running the ball, so they don't try and deal with that 4th ranked passing defense, and we know what happens when teams run the ball. It eats the clock. Tennessee is right in the Middle of the pack in Offensive yards per play (5.4), while the Jags are dead last (4.1), while on the other side of the ball Tennessee is 12th in defensive yards per play (5.3) and the Jags are 7th (5.1), so I don't look for a lot of big plays here. These teams will have to use time consuming drives if they wanna score. The bad offense that both teams have to go along with some very good defensive play will have this game at around 31 points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota +7 over WASHINGTON: I'm gonna steal a couple of trends from Marc Lawrence for this one, that way I don't have to look them up. LOL The Skins are 4-17 ATS as faves off an upset win and 0-14 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a losing team. This is not a Washington team that seems to be able to play a couple of good games in a row. The Skins are off a huge win vs the Giants in their last game, but they haven't won two games in a row this year since the opening 2 games of the year. Washington really should be out of gas in this one. They have no shot at the playoffs, Two weeks ago they gave their all in a loss to the Pats and last week they played well above their heads in the win over the Giants. Now they must try and get up for a Minnesota team that is 2-12 on the year. The Vikings may have been out of it for a long time and they were just spanked by the Saints, but prior to that game they lost by just 6 at Detroit, but just 3 vs Denver, they played Atlanta very tough and they lost by just 6 vs Oakland, so this is a team that hasn't given up. The Vikes have given up 211 points in their last 6 games, but Washington doesn't have a good enough offense to take advantage. On the other side, Christian Ponder and Adrian Petersen have jump started this offense as they come in averaging 26.7 ppg with 373.7 ypg overall and 167 ypg on the ground in their last 3 games. Washington defense has been average overall and they can be run on as they have allowed 112 ypg on the year, so I look for AP to have a good game here. Washington played their hearts out in the last 2 games and will have nothing left for Minnesota here. Vikes outright.
San Diego/ Detroit Over 52: This will be a Google News play (16-8). I will have the article done by noon. This should be a flat out shootout. The Chargers offense is clicking on all Cylinders right now as they have averaged 36.3 ppg and 404 ypg in their last 3 games. This offense is healthy and Rivers has been on fire with 268 ypg in his last 3 games, while in his last 4 games he has 7 TD's on ZERO INT's. This is a scary offense when they don't turn the ball over and today they will take on a Detroit defense that is not very good. The Lions come in allowing 23.7 ppg overall, while in their last 6 games this defense has really struggled, allowing 30.8 ppg in their last 6 games, while a pass defense that is 12th overall (218 ypg), has allowed 281.6 ypg through the air in their last 5 games. Rivers must be licking his chops right now. The San Diego defense has played very well in their 3 game win streak (12.7 ppg), but this Detroit offense is very good, especially on the fast track of Ford Field, where they have averaged 29.3 ppg and 366.1 ypg. This is a desperation game for both team and neither coach will leave anything in the bag here. I look for lots of passing plays and scoring as this one sails Over the total. KEY TREND--- SAN DIEGO is 17-4 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
BALTIMORE -12.5 over Cleveland: Last week the Ravens clinched a playoff berth despite the loss to San Diego, but they still have plenty to play for as if they win their last 2 games they will clinch the AFC North. Cleveland has nothing to play for and after allowing 34 points to the Chargers last week you can bet the Ravens defense is pissed and will be gunning for a shutout vs a pathetic Cleveland offense that has put up just 13.9 ppg and 294.4 ypg. Seneca Wallace really looked decent last week, but it was vs a weak Arizona defense, and the Browns still only got 213 yards passing and 17 points in the loss. The Ravens are perfect at home this year and they have allowed just 15 ppg and 254.6 ypg in the process. The Ravens offense has played really well at home as they have put up 28.4 ppg and 254 ypg on their home field this year. Well without a calculator we see that they have won their home games by 13.4 ppg. Cleveland has gone 3-4 on the road and they have been outscored by just 6 ppg in those games, but they have been outscored by double digits in their 3 road games vs team that will be in the playoffs this year. the Ravens really need to have a good games here and as well as they have played at home this year, I see them winning this one with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Francisco/ Seattle Under 37.5: The last 5 games for the Niners have averaged just 28.2 ppg, with only one of those games putting up more than today's total. Their defense has been stellar this year as they have allowed just 12.2 ppg overall, including just 9.4 ppg in the aforementioned last 5 games. Even an improved Seattle offense that has put up 33 ppg in their last 3 games will have problems scoring vs this defense. The Seattle defense has also been improved this year as they have allowed just 19.5 ppg overall and just 14.7 ppg in their last 6 games. The niners play a grind it out style of offense that uses alot of clock and has been worked to protection by them this year and I see more of the same here, which will keep the scoring way down in this one.
NY Giants/ Jets Over 47: Last week was a low scoring game for the giants, but in their previous 3 games and average of 72.3 ppg was scored. The Giants have no running game to speak of and that has prompted Eli to toss the ball all over the field. The Giants come in ranked 3rd in passing (299 ypg) and 13th in points scored (23.9 ppg), while their defense is 29th (385.1 ypg) overall, 29th vs the pass (257.5 ypg), plus 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg). The Jet offense has taken off down the stretch as they have averaged 29.5 ppg in their last 4 games and the Jets have put up 27.3 ppg at home this year. This is a big rivalry game and these teams really let it all out when they play each other, as evidenced, by the fact that the last 3 in the series has pout up at least 59 points in each games. Both offense are clicking right now and that has me seeing another shootout here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ New England Under 50: I really don't see these teams putting up the same numbers as in the first meeting. The Pats don't have a great defense or even a good one, but Miami has been all about the run late and that will eat some clock. The Miami running game will be key as they hope to keep the ball away from the Pats high powered offense. We know New England can score, but the Dolphins defense has played really well down the stretch as they have allowed just 14.7 ppg in their last 7 games. I look for no more than 45 in this one.Comment
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