12-24-11

[Mr. IWS]

CHEERS MASTER RELEASE CONFIDENTIAL
December 24, 2011. USA Issue #6.
Record: NFL 2/0, CBB 7/0, CFB 1/1
Double Dime players are up $17,800.00
Cost of CMRC service...Free

Saturday's CMRC:
BACK TO THE FUTURE NFL ALERT!
San Diego +2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday's Tally:
ROLLING STONE'S ALERT
UNLV -6 Win

CBB ALGOR-WIN-EM TOTAL!
Miss Valley St./Wisconsin under 125.5 Win

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Fiest
Giants +3 (biggest)
Panthers -7.5
Redskins -7
Broncos -3

[Mr. IWS]

Football Handicapper

Bills Under, Pitt, Dallas, S Miss

[Mr. IWS]

mti--
oak +2.5
den -1.5
cincy -4
oak und 42.5
sd +3
dal und 51

[Mr. IWS]

Member Plays

Matchup: Philadelphia at Dallas
Time: 4:15 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Under (51.0 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: December 23, 2011 @ 3:43:55 PM EST

We had a big play on the Eagles and Jets OVER 44 last week and the Eagles got over that number all by themselves while the Jets chipped in 19 points. Here, however, both the Eagles and Cowboys are in UNDER situations and last’s week’s results gets us the highest OU line in an Eagles - Cowboys game since at least 1989 -- perhaps the highest EVER. In the 2009 KillerSports.com NFL Annual we found this gem: PHI002: The Eagles are 0-12 OU (-9.1 ppg) since 2004 after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.” Philadelphia has gone 0-4 OU since its publication, moving the Eagles to 0-16 OU in this spot. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Eagles and p:points-tA(p:points)>=10 and season>=2004
Note that the average final score in these games has been about 21-13. Note further that this total is higher than any of the previous sixteen games in this situation.
Dallas also had a dominating win last week, holding the ball for 37:59 vs the Bucs. Their defense should be fresh here and this points to the UNDER. The Cowboys are 0-9 OU (-11.1 ppg) as a home favorite the week a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
Finally, Dallas is 0-6 OU (-9.5 ppg) as a home favorite the week after a game in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.
After seeing the others’ offense put on a show last week, both teams will emphasize the running game in an effort to keep their opponent’s offense off the field. There’s plenty of room under this number.
MTi’s FORECAST: Philadelphia 20 DALLAS 17

[Mr. IWS]

Sports N´Profits

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals under 41 @ 1PM

New York Giants vs. New York Jets over 47 @ 1PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers over 47 1/2 @ 1PM

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins over 44 @ 1PM

San Diego Chargers +2 vs. Detroit Lions @ 405PM

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers Today's winners ...

My 80 Dime play is on the Dallas Cowboys to cover against the Philadelphia Eagles. Checkang the sports books in Las Vegas at midnight and the Cowboys are a 1-point favorite. My 40 Dime winner is on Southern Miss to cover against Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. Southern Miss is layinng 8 1/2 points. Always shop around to get the best numbir.



ANALYSIS

Philadelphia at Dallas: Dallas has its own fate in its hands to win the NFC East. The Eagles have a slim hope to win the divisaon, but they need the Jets to beat the Giants. So, even before the game starts, the Eagles may be eliminated from the playoffs.





Philadelphia won the first meeting 34-7. That was a game where they jumped on the Cowboys in the first half and built up a big lead. That will not happen here because the Cowboys offense has better lately.





The Cowboys offense will be centered around quarterback Tony Romo. In the last three weeks, he has picked up his game. He is comnpleting 69.9 percent of his passes for 869 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions. He has a 121.4 passer rating in those last three games.





And an efficient Tony Romo is what the Cowboys need. He was responsible for two meltdowns earlier this season, or the Cowboys could be looking at first-round bye.





If he does not make mistakes, the Cowboys score. With tight end Jason Witten and receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, the Eagles defense will be tested. And the Eagles may be without cornerbick Asante Samuel, who is suffering with a hamstring injury.





On offense, the Eagles will rely on LeSean McCoy as they average 150 yards rushing a game. Dallas, which has the seventh ranked rush defense, allows less than a 100 yards a game, so that will be a focal point of the game. Receiver DeSean Jackson is probable with an elbow injury. If he is not going full strength, the Eagles offense lacks a deep threat.





The Eagles have some injury problems and internal problems. If they eliminated already, that would effect them. The Eagles have shown that they are not a mentally tough team.





The Cowboys are starting to play better and Romo is not making mistakes.


Take the Cowboys and lay the point.





Nevada vs. Southern Miss: Southern Miss has a high-octane offense led by quarterback Austin Davis, who has surpassed Brett Favre in settang several QB records. He has thrown for 3,331 yards and 28 touchdowns.

Southern Miss averages 37.8 points a game and 41.3 in its last three games. In the last three games, it averages 516 total yards.





Can Nevada slow down this offense? The Wolf Pack ranked second in the Western Athletic Conference in defense, giving up an average of 372 yards a game. Rankings are fine, but in road games, Nevada gives up 33.8 ponints a game.



Southern Miss will score here.

Offensively, Nevada will get a boost as WAC freshman of the year Cody Fajardo to be back as the starting quarterbick. He suffered a sprained ankle against Utah State on Nov. 26. But his return will not be enough for Nevada.





The difference here will be the Southern Miss defense. Despite the offense being effective, Southern Miss averages one defensive or special teams touchdowns a game. When your defense can score, it’s a big boost.

Plus, Southern Miss only gives up 21.1 points a game.
Motivation is always a concern, and this is the last game for Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora, who is taking over North Carolina next season. Fedora insisted on coaching this final game. I think he will have his team motivated to play and go out a winner.





Take Southern Miss and lay the points.





Jeff Benton Saturday's Action
40 Dime linemakers lament going out on the Kansas City Chiefs as the home favarite againnst the Oakland Raiders. At the time I release this winner, the Chiefs are a 2 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore versus the visiting Raiders.





10 Dime bonus release is the Dallas Cowboys as the small home favorite against the Philadelphia Eagles. At the time I am releasing this winner to you, Dallas is favored by 1 1/2-points both here in Vegas and offshore.

ANALYSIS # 1

The Chiefs are feeling pretty good right now, as their win last week at home over the then-unbeaten Packers has got to give Kansas City and its fanbase a huge lift. I know the public has been all over KC in this game, but I happen to beliave in this instance the public is right.





Siding with the Chiefs as the small home chalk this afternoon, as Kansas City snaps a four game home losing streak to the stunned Raiders. Oakland had victory snantched away from them last week when Detroit scored in the final minute to upend the Raiders, 28-27. That loss was just a crushing defeat that I do not see Oakland regrouping from. That loss makes it three in a row now for Hue Jackson's team, and also drops them to three wins and five losses over the last eight games.





Kansas City blasted Oakland 38-0 in the first meeting of the season back on October 23rd, and while their starting quartirback has changed, I don't think the result is going to change. With an outside chance at claiming the division title, look for the Chiefs to play staunch defense once again this afternoon, and look for them to get a few more touchdowns as opposed to the field goals they had to settle for in the Green Bay win.





Chiefs minus the small chalk the call.

ANALYSIS # 2

Let me just preface this analysis on Dallas by saying that you need to get down early on the Cowboys because if the New York Giants win their game against the Jets, then Philadelphia is eliminated from any postseason discussion. If that does happen, you can expect the Dallas line to start to climb, so get them now while the "gettin" is good!





Philadelphia has created some spark the last couple of weeks with blowout wins at Miami, and at home against the Jets, but this is a team that has not been able to win three games in a row all year long, and I don't expect them to do so for the first time this year today.





Dallas is in control of their destiny, and they are coming off a rock-solid win and cover at Tampa Bay their last time out. The Cowboys have had the extra day to prepare for this game, and they do own wins in five of their last seven straight up.





Tony Romo is dispelling the notion that he can't win in December, and he and the 'Pokes well know just what happened in the first series meeting when Philly trounced Dallas, 34-7. I feel sure Rob Ryan has worked long and hard with the defense in order to keep a replay from happening today on their home field.





Jerry Jones' "fears" of the Eagles are well-founded, but today the Cowboys erase their bugaboo, and handle business as the small home favorite against the visiting Eagles.

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman

3* Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

Harry Bondi

4- Baltimore

3- Arizona

3- Seattle

[Mr. IWS]

Matchup: Denver at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)


Play: Denver (-1.5 -110)
Line Source: 5dimes
Posted on: December 23, 2011 @ 3:43:55 PM EST

Over their first seven games this season, the Bills were 5-2 and scored an average of 30.1 ppg. Over their last seven games, the Bills are 0-7 and have scored an average of 14.3 ppg – and many of those points came in “garbage time.” Last week the Bills were a dismal 0-11 in third down conversion attempts and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions. Why should this team get up for this game? Last week they had a hated divisional rival at home and trailed 23-7 before scoring 16 points in the fourth quarter to make it look closer than it was. Buffalo should be dejected here, and we have the evidence to back it up. The Bills are 0-8 ATS after week 12 when they are off a loss in which they failed on at least two red zone attempts. Check it out with this SDQL text> p:RZF>=2 and team=Bills and week>12 and p:L and 20051211<=date
Note that the Bills have scored an average of 12.8 ppg in this spot.
Also, Buffalo is 0-7 ATS as a dog after a home game in which they converted less than 33% of their third down attempts. The SDQL text is:
p:3DP<33 and team=Bills and D and p:H and NB and 20091004<=date
Note how completely the Bills have been dominated by their opponent in this spot. Buffalo has last each of their last five games in this situation by at least 24 points. In their lone active date this season, the Bills were hammered 44-7 by Dallas. In their last active date before that, they lost 38-7 to the Jets. Absolutely brutal. The average margin by which they failed to cover the spread in this situation has been 20.2 ppg. We feel third down conversion percentage is one of the most undervalued handicapping parameters. When a team can’t move the chains, it is a bad sign for their offense and it makes their defense tired.
The Broncos accumulated 23 first downs last week against the Patriots – 13 via the rush. This is a positive sign for them, as they are 7-0 ATS on the road after a home game in which they allowed ta least ten rushing first downs. The SDQL text is:
p:RFD>=10 and team=Broncos and A and p:H and season>=2005
Note that Denver has covered by an average of 13.6 ppg in this spot.
The Broncos have a warrior for a leader in Tim Tebow. His teammates would take a bullet for him and he will do anything to win. You can perform an analysis of the playoff scenarios in the AFC West, but none of that will mean anything to Tebow. He will give 110% only because of one thing – it’s a football game. There is no way the Bills will be able to match the passion of the Broncos in this one.
MTi’s FORECAST: Denver 24 BUFFALO 13

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso
100 unit washington
75 unit baltimore
50 unit carolina
25 unit san diego
10 unit philadelphia
5 unit seattle
5 unit denver
10 unit nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Preferred 10* GOY

SD

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Nightmare

7* Oakland Raiders Under 43
8* Detroit Lions Over 52

[Mr. IWS]

Picknation


DeMarco Chargers-Lions Over

Redd Panthers, Raiders and Vikings

Chambers Cowboys and S Miss

Budin Chargers

Davis Chargers

Adams Cowboys

Mancini Titans

Rivers Cardinals and Chargers/Lions Over

Valentino Bills

O'Brien Panthers

Benton Chiefs and Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

40 DIME TRIFECTA


40 Dime selection on the Raiders as the road underdog agannst the Chiefs. As this play is released at 5:30am Pacific, Oakland is currently getting 2 1/2 points in this contest.


40 Dime selection on the Vikings as the road underdog against the Redskins. Minnesota is currently getting 7 points in this contest here in Vegas and offshore.



40 Dime selection on the Panthers as the home favorote against the Buccaneers. Carolina is currently laying 7 1/2 points in this contest here in Vegas and offshore.