12-26-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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Note:

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[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

MONDAY, DECEMBER 26
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/21) Game 131-132: Atlanta at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.297; New Orleans 144.029
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NFL

Monday, December 26, 2011
NEW ORLEANS 31, Atlanta 22

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

Monday Night NFL
1* Atlanta (+6.5)

[Mr. IWS]

DOC Sports

Take Atlanta Falcons +7 over New Orleans Saints (Monday 8:35 p.m. ESPN)

Take North Carolina State Wolfpack (pk) over Louisville Cardinals (Belk Bowl Tuesday, Dec. 27 8 p.m. ESPN) Magnificent 7 Game.

[Mr. IWS]

Goldsheet Key Releases

*NEW ORLEANS 37 - Atlanta 20—
N.O. can clinch the NFC South.
So this is a must-win situation for the Falcons if they are to have any hope
(albeit slim, at best) of capturing the division. A loss would also be a negative
for Atlanta’s wildcard position. Good luck to the Falcs on either count, as the
Saints have been “blessed” at home TY, going 6-0 vs. the spread and scoring
40 ppg. Even with the re-emergence of dynamic rookie WR Julio Jones, it will
be difficult for Atlanta to keep up with Drew Brees (37 TDs, 11 ints.), on pace
to smashing several revered records this season, and then, a few years later,
on his way to Canton. The last three games in this series have been decided

by exactly 3 points. Not this time.

[Mr. IWS]

Prediction Machine


Monday
Atlanta +7 55.5%
Over at 53 50.1%

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON
MONDAY, 12/26
NORTH CAROLINA +5.5 vs mizzou
SAINTS -6.5 vs falcons

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

North Carolina/ Missouri Under 53: The Carolina defense had struggled for parts of the year, but they really turned it on down the stretch as they allowed just 19.3 ppg and 320.3 ypg in their last 3 games. Missouri comes in 57th in passing (236.8 ypg), but their bread and butter is their running games that ranks 11th putting up 236.5 ypg. The Tarheels can stop the run as they have allowed just 106.2 ypg on the ground (14th) and they have allowed just 3.3 ypc (15th), so i don't expect the Tigers to get those big explosive running plays they had this year, also the Tigers se the run to set up the pass and if they don't get the running game going then they may have to start throwing on first down more and that is not their game. The Tigers did put up 32.2 ppg on the year, but just 24 ppg in their last 3 games. The Heels also had problems scoring down the stretch, as they put up just 19.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The Heels can throw the ball (249.2 ypg), but this Missouri Defense has been tough of late vs the pass, allowing just 184 ypg through the air in their last 3 games. Overall this is a tough Missouri defense that started the year on a good note and ended on a good note, but they did have a 3 game stretch in the middle of the year vs Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Baylor, in which they allowed 39.3, but the Heels do not have as strong an offense as those teams do. Both of these teams really pride themselves on defense and while they have struggled at times this year, I see both units stepping up big and keeping this one Under the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Falcons at Saints: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5, 52)


THE STORY: With Dan Marino's NFL single-season passing record squarely in his sights, Drew Brees will lead the New Orleans Saints into a critical divisional matchup with the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Brees needs 305 yards to surpass the mark of 5,084 set by Marino in 1984, a fairly decent proposition given the fact he has thrown for a league-record 11 300-yard games this season. Of more importance to both teams is how the game will impact both their postseason fates. Winners of six straight, New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South title with a victory and remains in contention for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Atlanta still has an outside shot at winning the division and holds a tiebreaker edge over Detroit for the No. 5 seed. The Falcons would clinch a playoff berth with a win Monday.

LINE: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet up to the key number of 7 before falling back to 6.5 at most books. If you shop hard, you can find 6 or 7 (even). The total opened at 53.5 and has fallen to 52.5 or 52.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5): Atlanta has won four of five since an overtime home loss to the Saints on Nov. 13. The Falcons have had ample time to prepare since thumping Jacksonville 41-14 on Dec. 15. QB Matt Ryan threw for a modest 224 yards and three TDs, including a pair to Roddy White, who had 10 receptions for 135 yards. It was the second 10-catch performance in four games for White, who has five TDs in that stretch. In an attempt to keep Brees off the field, Atlanta could feature a heavy dose of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 265 yards and two TDs in the last two visits to New Orleans.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-3): How good has Brees been? In his last five games, he has thrown for 1,776 yards with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw five TD passes in last week’s 42-20 rout at Minnesota and has completed 20-plus passes in a league-record 34 straight games. Top pick Mark Ingram (toe) sat out the last two games, but it hasn’t slowed New Orleans, which got 151 rushing yards from RBs Christopher Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles last week. Sproles has been a major weapon out of the backfield with 79 receptions, including at least five in 12 games. Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (87) and yards (1,171).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Although the Saints have won nine of past 11 meetings overall, each of the last four with Atlanta have been decided by three points.

2. Brees has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 41 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47.

3. “I hope he's at his highest level because if he plays any better I don't know if there's any way to stop him.” – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Brees’ recent play.

TRENDS:

- Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in Saints' last 16 vs. NFC South.

PREDICTION: Saints 34, Falcons 31 -- Atlanta keeps it close as usual, but Brees and the Saints’ high-powered offense extend their win streak to seven.

[Mr. IWS]

Independence Bowl: What bettors need to know

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS vs. MISSOURI TIGERS (-5.5, 52.5)

ADVOCARE V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL STORYLINES

1. Missouri's parting gift from the Big 12 Conference -- the Tigers are headed to the Southeastern Conference along with Texas A&M next season -- was being passed over in the Big 12's bowl pecking order and relegated to a third trip to Shreveport, La., since 2003. The Tigers lost to Arkansas 27-14 in 2003 and rallied for a 38-31 win over South Carolina in 2005. North Carolina is playing in the Independence Bowl for the first time.

2. Both teams boast sophomore quarterbacks who put up big numbers, and they could be relied upon to carry the load, because both defenses are tough against the run. North Carolina's Bryn Renner has passed for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdowns, which ties Chris Keldorf's school record. Missouri's James Franklin has been a catalyst for the Tigers' balanced offense with 2,733 passing yards and 839 rushing yards and 33 total touchdowns.

3. It will be the Tar Heels' final game under interim coach Everett Withers, as former Southern Mississippi coach Larry Fedora will take over after the bowl game. North Carolina won five of its first six games under Withers but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of its last six. Withers announced that he'll be joining Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State after the bowl game.

4. The teams have met only twice, with Missouri winning both meetings in 1973 and 1976. The Tigers won the first contest 27-14 in Chapel Hill and won 24-3 at home three years later. North Carolina has not played a Big 12 opponent since a 52-21 home loss to Texas in 2002, and the Tar Heels haven't beaten a current Big 12 team since a 20-0 win over Kansas in 1986.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Missouri opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has been bet up steadily to 5.5. But you can still find the Tigers at -5 if you shop around. The total is 52.5 or 53, depending on the book.

WEATHER: There's an 80 percent chance of rain at kickoff, with temperatures in the mid-40s and light wind. The chance of rain decreases slightly throughout the game. By 8 p.m. ET, the forecast calls for a 60 percent chance.

ABOUT MISSOURI (7-5, 5-4 Big 12): The Tigers closed the regular season with three straight wins to land in a bowl game for a school-record seventh consecutive season. The Tigers haven't won their last four games of the season since 1965. The late-season success helped make up for a tumultuous stretch in which leading rusher Henry Josey was lost for the season with two torn ligaments and a torn tendon in his left knee and head coach Gary Pinkel was suspended for one game after pleading guilty to a drunk driving charge. Losing Josey proved to be a speed bump for the nation's No. 12 offense (473.2 yards per game) but the defense was up to the task down the stretch, shutting down Texas in a 17-5 home win and stifling Kansas in a 24-10 win in Kansas City to end the regular season.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (7-5, 3-5 ACC): The Tar Heels are playing in a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season, their longest streak since going to seven straight bowl games from 1992-98. Giovani Bernard has rushed for a North Carolina freshman record 1,222 yards, becoming the first Tar Heel to top 1,000 rushing yards since 1997. With 13 rushing touchdowns, he needs one more to tie the school's freshman record. The Tar Heels got some good news when leading receiver Dwight Jones was reinstated to the team. Jones was originally declared ineligible after allowing his name and image to be used to promote a party in his hometown of Burlington, N.C. Jones hauled in a school-record 79 passes for 1,119 this season with 11 going for touchdowns. Bernard and Jones are the first duo in school history to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.

TRENDS:

- Missouri is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on grass.
- Missouri is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site games.
- North Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.
- North Carolina is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.
- Under is 9-3 in Missouri's last 12 non-conference games.
- Under is 9-4 in UNC's last 13 games vs. winning teams.

PREDICTION: Missouri 27, North Carolina 23 -- The Tigers have more weapons and will end a season with four straight wins for the first time in 46 years.

[Mr. IWS]

Ice picks: Monday's best NHL bets

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild (-135, 5)

The Wild emerge from Christmas break trying to break an 0-4-2 skid. They’ve scored one or zero goals in five of their last six.

Colorado, meanwhile, is coming off a 4-0-0 homestand that pushed the Avalanche over .500 for the first time since Nov. 10.

But there are two big factors working in Minnesota’s favor Monday.

C Mikko Koivu, the team’s leading scorer, expects to return from a leg injury that has kept him out since Dec. 14. The Wild captain poured in 18 points in 14 games before the injury.

In addition, the Avs don’t travel well lately. They have not won on the road since a 5-4 shootout victory at Chicago on Oct. 22.

Pick: Wild

Phoenix Coyotes at Los Angeles Kings (-140, 5)

These teams have combined for 13 goals in their last four meetings, with no game producing more than five goals.

The Coyotes rank 18th in scoring (2.6) and 27th on the power play (13.5 percent). The Kings are even less potent, ranking 30th in scoring (2.1).

In its last 10 games, L.A. hasn’t scored more than two goals in regulation. But the Kings are stout defensively, allowing an average of 2.3 goals and posting four shutouts. Jonathan Quick ranks eighth in the league with a 2.13 GAA.

The under is 7-1-1 in the Kings’ last nine home games, and 3-0-2 in the teams’ last five meetings in Los Angeles.

Pick: Under

[Mr. IWS]

Pick 'n' roll: Monday's best NBA bets

Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Bobcats (1, 180.5)

The Bobcats will unveil their new-look backcourt, with UConn’s Kemba Walker joining an improved D.J. Augustin.

Team owner Michael Jordan “looked at Kemba and saw himself,” coach Paul Silas said. “Mike said, ‘This guy has it.’ He said if he can lead (Connecticut) to the championship then he has what I have - and that’s the determination to do it.”

Charlotte, coming off a 34-48 season, also added Corey Maggette in hopes of bolstering an offense that ranked 29th last season.

Milwaukee was even worse offensively last season, averaging an NBA-low 91.9 points and shooting a league-worst 43 percent. But with Stephen Jackson joining Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut, the Bucks believe they can get back to the playoffs.

The home team has won the last 10 meetings in this series, going 7-2-1 ATS.

Pick: Bobcats

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 196)

This is a rematch of last season’s surprising first-round playoff series. Memphis, the No. 8 seed, knocked off top-seeded San Antonio in six games.

Those Grizzlies took Oklahoma City to seven games in the next round without Rudy Gay (19.8 ppg), who is back from his shoulder injury.

Zach Randolph, 30, averaged 20.1 points and 12.2 rebounds and is the oldest regular contributor. Marc Gasol, Gay, O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley are all 26 or younger.

Given their age, the Spurs could benefit from the shortened season. But Tim Duncan is coming off career lows in scoring (13.4) and rebounding (8.9), and San Antonio didn’t make any dramatic moves.

The Spurs will again rely on Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker to carry the offense. Unless first-round pick Kawhi Leonard can make a big impact, the Spurs’ best days are likely behind them.

Memphis is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 meetings with San Antonio.

Pick: Grizzlies

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Monday’s Comp Play

NFL
Atlanta at New Orleans UNDER 52

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NHL

Season: 160-123 (.565)

MINNESOTA 3, Colorado 2
Washington vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. RANGERS 4, N.Y. Islanders 2
New Jersey vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. LOUIS 3, Dallas 2
Detroit vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CHICAGO 4, Columbus 2
VANCOUVER 4, Edmonton 2
Phoenix vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
SAN JOSE 4, Anaheim 2