12-29-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 29 Time Posted: 1:00 p.m. EST (12/11)

Game 225-226: Notre Dame vs. Florida State (5:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 99.588; Florida State 99.480 Dunkel Line: Even; 49 Vegas Line: Florida State by 3; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+3); Over

Game 227-228: Washington vs. Baylor (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 89.696; Baylor 105.849 Dunkel Line: Baylor by 16; 75 Vegas Line: Baylor by 9; 78 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-9); Under

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB

Thursday, December 29, 2011
Champs Sports Bowl
at Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, FL
Florida State 24, Notre Dame 18
Valero Alamo Bowl
at Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Baylor 58, Washington 42

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach

Thursday
CFB Baylor Under 10*
Fla State 10*

[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise Phones

3* Florida St

2* Baylor

[Mr. IWS]

What Bettors Need to Know: Washington vs. Baylor
By Covers

Washington vs. Baylor


ALAMO BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III may wrap up his college career when he leads No. 16 Baylor against Washington. Griffin has one year of eligibility left, but after leading the Bears back to prominence and setting 46 school records along the way, it seems likely this will be his final collegiate appearance.

2. It could be a perfect scenario for Griffin’s finale. Washington brings one of the worst pass defenses in the FBS into the matchup, ranking 116th out of 120 schools in allowing 283.8 passing yards per game.

3. The Bears haven’t appeared in consecutive bowl games since the 1991-92, and Baylor hasn’t won a bowl game since beating Arizona in the 1992 Sun Bowl. The Bears lost 38-14 to Illinois in last season’s Texas Bowl.

4. Washington will rely on quarterback Keith Price and running back Chris Polk to try to exploit Baylor's No. 114 overall defense. If Price and Polk can play well, this game may turn into a shootout.

LINE: Some oddsmakers had Baylor favored by as many as 10 points at the open, but the Bears now sit around -9. The total is holding steady around 78.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12 North): The Huskies were 5-1 at one time, but an ugly 65-21 loss to then-No. 8 Stanford on Oct. 22 sent Washington reeling. The Huskies lost four out of five, rebounding to beat Washington State 38-21 in the regular-season finale. Price’s 29 touchdown passes this season broke the school record. Polk enters the game with 1,341 rushing yards, 75 shy of his total from last season. Polk gained 177 yards as the Huskies upset Nebraska 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl last season.

ABOUT BAYLOR (9-3, 6-3 Big 12): As always, all conversation surrounding Baylor starts with Griffin, who has passed for 3,998 yards and 36 touchdowns this season against only six interceptions. He has also rushed for nine scores, but Griffin has plenty of help fueling a Baylor offense that ranks sixth nationally in average points scored (43.5). Running back Terrance Ganaway has rushed for 1,347 yards and 16 touchdowns, and receiver Kendall Wright caught 101 passes this season for 1,572 yards and 13 scores.

TRENDS:

- Washington is 11-5-1 against the spread in its last 17 games overall.
- Baylor is 4-1 against the spread in its last five.
- The over is 16-4-1 in Baylor's last 21 games.

PREDICTION: Baylor 45, Washington 34 - If this is Griffin's swan song, he’ll go out with a flourish as the Bears cap their first 10-win season since 1980.

[Mr. IWS]

What Bettors Need to Know: Notre Dame vs. Florida State
By Covers

Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-3.5, 46)


CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two storied programs working to get back to national relevance square off in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. Both No. 25 Florida State and Notre Dame started the season ranked in the Top 20 and had dreams of competing for a national championship, but those dreams came crashing down as they finished with identical 8-4 records.

2. Florida State’s junior cornerback Avis Commack and freshman linebacker Arrington Jenkins were both arrested on charges of theft in December. Commack allegedly stole a female student’s iPad on Dec. 6, while Jenkins – who is redshirting this season – allegedly stole a motorcycle from a residence close to his. In addition, Jermaine Thomas, the team’s second-leading rusher, is also ineligible for the bowl after failing to pass a class in the fall semester.

3. A little more than 18 years ago, these two schools faced each other as the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 teams on Nov. 13, 1993. Notre Dame won the game 31-24, but was upset by Boston College a week later and went on to watch the Seminoles win the national championship over Nebraska.

Line: Florida State opened as a 3-point favorite but that number had moved up to 3.5 by Wednesday evening. The total is holding around 46 after opening as high as 48.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (8-4, 5-3 ACC): The Seminoles – who have appeared in a national-best 30 consecutive bowl games — led the ACC and were fourth nationally in allowing only 15.2 points per game, including 9.4 over the final five games of the season. Opponents averaged an FBS-low 2.3 yards per carry on the ground against Florida State, which could make things difficult for Notre Dame running back Cierre Wood.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-4): The Fighting Irish made strides in their second year under coach Brian Kelly, but they turned in their share of stinkers as well. Impressive wins over Michigan State and Pittsburgh were overshadowed by double-digit losses to USC and Stanford and a heartbreaking last-second defeat at Michigan in the second week of the season. Quarterback Tommy Rees was benched in the 28-14 loss to the Cardinal, but he’s expected to be back with the first team for the bowl game.

TRENDS:

- Notre Dame is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight bowl games.
- The over is 8-3 in Florida State's last 11 neutral site games.
- Florida State is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven overall and 6-0-1 against the spread in its last seven bowl games.

PREDICTION: Florida State 21, Notre Dame 13. Despite the off-field distractions, the Seminoles’ attacking defense will be too much for the Irish to handle.

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Best NHL Bets
By Covers

Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning (-120, 5.5)

Coaching in Montreal is a pressure cooker at the best of times, but for an Anglophone, it’s even tougher.

Randy Cunneyworth’s tenure behind the Habs’ bench has been a rollercoaster ride already, but he’s standing his ground. Sitting defenseman P.K. Subban in the press box was a gutsy call and it doesn’t look like Cunneyworth is about to back down.

Subban was back in the lineup Tuesday and scored his third of the season, helping Cunneyworth to his first win for Montreal in a 6-2 decision over Ottawa.

"I think relief is one word, but obviously we're pleased,” Cunneyworth told reporters. “We expected it sooner, but going forward we want it to happen more often. It's no secret: We had it in our minds that we were going to get the puck to the net."

The Lightning have been trying to do the same thing and are coming off a big 5-1 win over Philadelphia.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins (-120, 5.5)

The Pittsburgh Penguins know they need offensive contributions from everyone to keep rolling along without Sidney Crosby in the lineup.

That’s why they’re trying to keep it simple and get as much rubber toward the crease as possible. It took a while to pay off Tuesday against Carolina but they scored three goals in the third period to book a 4-2 win.

"We had a lot of Grade-A chances. A few you'd like to have back, but he made some great saves and played really well," James Neal told reporters. "If you're putting pucks on the net and controlling the offensive zone like that, you're going to get your bounces. We just wanted to stick with it, and we did that."

Philly will be feisty after its latest loss, but Pittsburgh is awfully tough to beat at home. The Pens are 11-3-2 in front of their home crowd this year.

Pick: Penguins

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers

New Jersey Nets at Orlando Magic (-11.5, 181)

Well, this is awkward, isn't it?

Dwight Howard's current team (the Magic) hosts the team he wishes to get traded to (the Nets).

Howard may want to reconsider this requested destination if he caught any of New Jersey's showing - or lack thereof - Tuesday night against the Hawks.

Atlanta had the Nets beaten before the ball was first tipped off and, with the visiting side up 20+ points in the third quarter, the sellout home crowd started chanting, “We want Dwight!”

“It’s very disappointing, we came out and put up a stinker like that in our first home game,” Nets PG and Howard's BFF Deron Williams told the Newark Star-Ledger. “It was one of those games where nothing seemed to go right. Definitely we have a lot of work to do and not a lot of time to do it.”

Nets fans will get a whole heap of Howard on Wednesday. New Jersey’s frontline is a mess with center Brook Lopez on the shelf.

Pick: Magic -11.5

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5, 199)

There were some raised eyebrows when the Nuggets shipped Raymond Felton to the Blazers for Andre Miller. Most see Felton as the better point guard with a friendly contract.

But we eventually learned the move was more about that other point guard on the Nuggets’ roster. Ty Lawson recorded 27 points on 10 of 15 shooting from the field in just 32 minutes of action in Monday’s blowout win over the defending champion Mavericks.

Denver coach George Karl seems keen on pairing Lawson with Miller and letting the bigger guard run the offense. Whether he’s playing the point or off the ball, Lawson appears to be the Nuggets’ biggest offensive weapon.

The Blazers get a break catching the lightning-quick Lawson and the rest of the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back set. The extra rest and the home floor should be enough to push Portland toward a cover.

Pick: Blazers -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's betting tips: Nothing but Baylor bets in Alamo Bowl

Who’s hot

NCAAF: Florida State is 6-0-1 against the number in its last seven bowl games.

NCAAF: Washington is 11-5-1 against the spread in its last 17 overall.

NBA: Denver is 29-11-1 against the spread in its last 41 meetings with Portland.

NHL: Philadelphia has won four of its last five games against Pittsburgh.

NCAAB: Vanderbilt is 8-2-2 against the spread in its last 12 road games.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Notre Dame is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight bowl games.

NCAAF: The under is 4-16-1 in Baylor’s last 21 overall.

NBA: Chicago has dropped six straight against the number dating back to last season.

NHL: The New York Islanders have dropped seven of their last 10 overall and four straight home games.

NCAAB: Rutgers is 0-6 against the number this season and 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games.

Key stat

16 – The Baylor Bears have punted the ball just 16 times during the five game winning streak that preceded Thursday’s date with Washington in the Alamo Bowl. During that span, the Bears are averaging 46.4 points and have scored 31 touchdowns. Baylor is set as a 9.5-point favorite and a whopping 76 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors are backing the Bears.


Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt Commodores – Vanderbilt’s starting center is questionable for Thursday’s game against Marquette as he deals with knee tendinitis. The 6-foot-11 center averaged 13 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.6 blocks last season but has played just two games this season due to injury and suspension issues. The Commodores opened as 8.5-point underdogs.

Game of the day

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Florida State Seminoles (3.5, 46)

Notable quotable

"It's not been two years or three years since we've been on the top, it's been 10. That's something we have to change." – Florida State Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher.

Notes and tips

Dallas Stars goaltender Kari Lehtonen will return to the ice for Thursday's game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Coach Glen Gulutzan also announced that defensemen Sheldon Souray and Stephane Robidas will be sidelined for 10-14 days apiece. Souray is nursing a sprained ankle and Robidas sustained a setback in his recovery from a foot injury. As for Lehtonen, he'll be making his first start since being sidelined on Nov. 26 with a groin injury. Lehtonen was off to a sizzling start prior to getting hurt with a 13-4-1 record and 2.34 goals-against average.

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis went through a limited practice Wednesday and is expected to be available if needed for Sunday's game against the St. Louis Rams. Willis has been sidelined for the past three games since suffering a hamstring injury on Dec. 4 against the Rams. The 49ers (12-3) are battling the New Orleans Saints (12-3) for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. The leader of a defense that has allowed a league-low 202 points, Willis has registered at least 128 tackles in his first four seasons and had missed only one game in his career prior to this injury.

[Mr. IWS]

College funds: Thursday's best NCAAB bets

Elon Phoenix at North Carolina Tar Heels (-30)

North Carolina figures to cruise to its sixth consecutive victory when it hosts Elon of the Southern Conference on Thursday. The No. 6 Tar Heels have two tune-ups left – they host Monmouth on Sunday – before beginning Atlantic Coast Conference play against Boston College on Jan. 7.

North Carolina has scored 97 or more points three times during its five-game winning streak. North Carolina is 8-0 at home and Elon is 2-4 on the road. The Phoenix are aiming for a competitive contest in a rare appearance on national television, but that could be a stretch.

The Tar Heels average 86.1 points. Sophomore forward Harrison Barnes averages a team-best 16.8 points and is shooting 48.6 percent from 3-point range.

Junior forward John Henson is scoring 14.5 points and leads the Tar Heels in rebounding (10.1) and blocked shots (43). Senior center Tyler Zeller is averaging 14.0 points and 8.4 rebounds.

Sophomore guard Kendall Marshall has been amazing with the basketball in his hands – he’s averaging 10.1 assists and has more than four times as many assists (131) as turnovers (32).

Pick: Tar Heels

Oklahoma Sooners at Cincinnati Bearcats (-4.5, N/A)

Since partaking in an ugly brawl against Xavier on Dec. 10, Cincinnati has won four straight games, all by 20 points or more. The Bearcats will host Oklahoma in their final non-conference tune-up before Big East play begins against Pittsburgh on New Year’s Day.

The Bearcats made a season-high 16 3-pointers in its 95-60 victory over Chicago State on Friday. Sean Kilpatrick, one of six Bearcats to finish in double figures, scored a game-high 21 points. He made four 3-pointers as did Cashmere Wright, who had 14 points and seven rebounds.

Cincinnati has scored 297 points in its last three games, the highest total in a three-game stretch since the 1976-77 season.

However, the Bearcats have been a terrible bet on their home floor in recent memory. They're 10-22 against the spread in their last 32 home games.

Pick: Sooners

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Thursday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Notre Dame vs Florida State OVER 46

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

(CFB) Florida st -3
(CFB) Baylor -9

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Air Force (+3) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Notre Dame. The deficit is 2899 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

780- 558 57 % Free Play Run over 3 YEARS

Free play 22-11 run Thurs: Wake Forest -4