1-9-12

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Double Dragon
Hydra
LSU +1 vs alabama (JAN 9th)

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

8 UNIT BCS National Championship Game:
OVER 40 Alabama vs. LSU

[Mr. IWS]

SPARTAN Triple Star Bowl Game Of The Year!

269 Alabama 0.0 (-110) Hilton vs 270 LSU
Analysis: Well here it is, my biggest release of this years Bowl season. I am certain you guys have heard all the talking heads on TV and radio break this game down from every possible angle. I won't bore you with anymore of that. I love the Tide here. Here's my line of thinking. How often do you get a powerhouse like Alabama in a pick'em AND taking the field with revenge as a motivational tool. Not often. Bowls can be, as many of you know, a mine field for bettors to try and navigate and keep their bankrolls intact. I was personal friends with the late Missouri football coach Larry Smith and we discussed Bowls one time. He explained how hard it can be for a staff to get kids motivated for a Bowl they feel slighted to be at. Think about it like this. In march madness everybody's tickled to death to be in the big dance and make a dream run to the final four. In the Bowls some teams feel they have been disrespected and look down their noses at the Bowl they are in and even at times the opposition, well often those noses get bloodied. I've seen many very solid, capable handicappers get chewed alive by Bowls. When I step out with a huge release I want a great team, well we certainly have that with the Tide, and I want motivation. Well playing the the title AND with revenge does it for me. Not often you'll get Alabama at this price fellas. Plus, although he's done a fine job I still trust Saban on the sideline in a big time game more than Miles. At some point in this thing I can see Miles making a bad decision and costing his team. I look for more offense this time around but trust me, it won't resemble a Boise State game for sure, I say the Tide wins this thing when the dust all settles 20-16. Now, one other thing. I usually prevail in these big releases but nothing is 100%, there are no locks gušys. Those are bullshit con games used by crooked salesmen trying to lure in novice sports bettors. Please don't bet the mortgage on this because there simply are no guarantees. Let's also hope the Alabama kicking game is more in tune this time around. Many sincere thanks as always and best of luck to us. Enjoy the game and bet smart fellas!

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus BCS Title game : OVER LSU/Alabama

[Mr. IWS]

POINTWISE PHONES COLLEGE BOWLS:

3* Bama

[Mr. IWS]

Norm Hitzges

SINGLE PLAYS:

BOWLS:************
·******** LSU +1 Alabama
·******** LSU-Alabama UNDER 40

[Mr. IWS]

Freddy Wills

It's the last game of the season and you do not want to miss out on my in depth analysis that will have you super confident in your bet on Monday night. I'm undefeated in my career going 3-0 in 3 National Championships and I expect that to continue on Monday. We are 11-4 in our last 15 NCAAF, and 110-68 in our L178 and we were the nation's #1 handicapper in 2011-12 for college football. This pick is guaranteed or 1 day is FREE!

ALABAMA -1 5.5* NCAAF POD

We were on LSU the first time around and if you watched the game you know Alabama would have been the right play as Bama's interception down the middle of the field on a jump ball that got picked off at their own 1 yard line was the difference in the game. That and the fact that they went 2-6 from FG's otherwise they had complete control of that game and revenge will be a huge advantage for this team and is probably the reason they are favorites despite playing in LSU's home state. I'll break down some key aspects to each team's statistics and strategy this year.

Quarterbacks & Pass Defense:
Jordan Jefferson gives LSU more offense and I expect him to get 90% of the snaps in the title game. Jefferson is known for not being super accurate, but he has converted over 60% of his passes thus far and was 6-10 vs. Alabama the first time, but Alabama should come up with the necessary adjustments as they held opponents to just 4.4 yards per attempts and 48.3% conversions and a 83.94 QB rating while picking off 12 passes and allowing just 6 passing TD's this year. AJ McCarron on the other hand got better with every game and was 16-28 for 199 yards in the first game. Bama did have two uncharacteristic turnovers one on a trick play when they let WR Marquis Maze pass which ultimately cost them in a game which had the feeling of them dominating. LSU's pass defense is solid and their corner backs are better than Bama's but I still give Alabama the advantage as LSU's pass defense allows 1 more yard per attempt at 5.4, 51.1%, and a 93.07 QB rating, but they only allowed 7 passing TD's and had 6 more interceptions with 18 on the season.

Penalties, Special Teams & Turnovers
Alabama is cleaner and penalized 2.2 times less than LSU on the season and they were penalized 6 times to LSU's 7. Alabama has one of the best coverage units and I doubt they let Tyrann Mathieu touch it. In the first game they dominated field position all game long so special teams did not seem to be the issue and both teams were even in TO margin which again giving the ball up two times was not like Alabama or LSU. I expect Alabama to have better FG opportunities and they'll punt before they try a long FG which should help them even more in field position.

Rushing Offense & Defense
LSU on paper had more rushing yards than Alabama in the first game but to me Alabama had much more success. LSU never allows a RB to get into a rhythm and I think that's a big deal. On the other side Trent Richardson is a beast and he's been here before. Against Texas the #1 run defense in 2009 he had 19 carries for 109 yards in the National Championship as a freshmen. In the first game he ran for 89 yards on 23 carries while Spencer Ware had 16 carries for 23 yards for LSU. Just like the passing defense of Alabama allowing 1 yard less per attempt, the Alabama Run defense is allowing 0.9 yards less than LSU and they have the better running game. Opponents have only rushed for 1st downs 3.6 times per game against Alabama's defense while they have rushed for 5.6 per game vs. LSU which will be key since both teams will want to pick up first downs on the ground.

3rd Downs:
In the match up it was Alabama that was 5-13 and LSU just 3-11. ON the season Alabama has the offensive advantage probably because they are more balanced with a more accurate QB in McCarron. They converted 48.7% on the year and 49.06% in conference games while LSU converted 46.84% but only 41.75% in conference games and converted 39.29% on the road and were 1-9 against Georgia in the SEC Championship game and in the first half they had 6 possessions and had 6 3 and outs. There is no better defense in the nation on third down than Alabama. Defensively Alabama is also the better team holding opponents amazingly to 25% conversions on third down and just 22.02 % in conference games. Meanwhile LSU holds opponents to 34.87%, but 40% on the road and 34.4% in conference play.

Red Zone:
Okay both defenses were outstanding this year. Alabama only allowed 17 attempts all year in 12 games and only 12 attempts in 8 conference games while LSU just as good 23 attempts in 13 games and 13 attempts in 9 conference games. Alabama is a bit better at holding opponents out of the end zone 35.29% allowing just 6 TD's all year while LSU allowed 12 in 23 attempts. Offensively both teams got there and this is one edge LSU does have scoring 72.13% of their 61 attempts, but they were 0-3 vs. Alabama the first time around and I expect Alabama's defense to continue that success which will out weigh the small advantage LSU has on getting the ball in the end zone.

Final Remarks:
LSU to me just relies to much on special teams and turnovers and that's really not where Alabama will make mistakes. We saw the offensive weaknesses of LSU in their last 2 games vs. Arkansas and Georgia in which they trailed 10-0 and 14-0 and the countless 3 and outs. They can't afford that to happen vs. Alabama but I don't know how they can avoid it. I give a small coaching advantage to Nick Saban he'll have his team ready to win this one after losing a heart breaker at home the first time around. He was able to get his team to put up 37 points vs. another top 5 defense in 2009 so I'm confident Alabama will win this game setting up a lot of controversy on why LSU had to play Alabama again.

[Mr. IWS]

greg shaker

3* CFB* LSU TIGERS PK

[Mr. IWS]

Alex smart

10* cfb* alabama crimson tide

[Mr. IWS]

Winners path

bowl game of the year* cfb* lsu tigers +1

[Mr. IWS]

fairway jay

20* cfb* big drive* bowl goy* alabama crimson tide

[Mr. IWS]

David Chan

10 UNIT* CFB* ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
10 UNIT* CFB* ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE-LSU TIGERS OVER 40
8 UNIT* CFB* FH* ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE PK

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law

MONDAY: 01/09/12
(3%)* ALABAMA*

[Mr. IWS]

so money sports

lsu/ala over 40