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Paul Leiner
1000* CFB Alabama -1
1000* CFB Alabama -1
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sportbookbreakers:
4-STAR CHICAGO over Detroit - Only one of Chicago's last five wins has come by single digits. Particularly when rest, they are a team which can put teams away and we expect them to do that here.
They should have extra motivation coming off a 109-94 loss in Atlanta. Prior to that, Chicago had won six straight games. The Bulls are 7-0-1 ATS (13.3 ppg) since April 10, 2007 at home off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak.
The total in that game was just a modest 176, meaning they allowed 23 points more than expected. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since April 11, 2010 when their DPA was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.
Atlanta got hot from three-point land in that win, going 9-of-12. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since February 22, 2008 at home after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Chicago was almost too unaggressive in that game, committing just nine fouls. The League is 17-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since February 16, 2011 at home after a game on the road in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. Also, the Bulls are 9-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since January 17, 1997 at home with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.
Chicago started resting up their starters early when they fell way behind there. Joakim Noah played just 17 minutes in that game. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since February 10, 2009 at home after a loss on the road in which Joakim Noah played fewer than 30 minutes.
Detroit is coming off an unconventional 103-80 loss to New York. They got unusually three-point happy in that game, going 9-of-26 on threes. The League is 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since February 21, 2010 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.
For the game, they shot just 37% from the field. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since April 09, 2008 as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION:CHICAGO 104, Detroit 84Comment
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4.5-STAR LSU +1 over Alabama - The reason the money has been coming in on Alabama is for one simple reason. People saying it's hard to beat a team twice in one season. There is really nothing too that. Teams are 22-16 SU in rematches after winning the first one and an irrelevant 19-17-1 ATS in these situations. Both these teams are elite but LSU is the team that is truly special, having beat Oregon and West Virginia in the nonconference season along with Georgia, and has an edge here.
LSU played in the SEC Championship last game and won 42-10 over Georgia. They were 13.5 point favorites going into that game. Teams are 12-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) in bowl game history when they have at least eight wins and their opponent at least seven after conference championship game which they covered by between 13 and 21.5 points and their opponent didn't fail to cover by 14+ points in their last game (p:game type='CH' and 21.5>=p:ats margin>=13 and wins>=8 and o:wins>=7 and op:ats margin>-14). Also, LSU is 7-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since November 2006 coming off a win by between 30 and 41 points (team='LSU' and date>=20061101 and 41>=p:margin>=30).
LSU is a perfect 13-0 while Alabama comes into this game 11-1. Undefeated teams are 13-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) in bowl games when undefeated, when facing a team which has lost on the year, if they won by between 10 and 40 points last game and are averaging at least 33.5 points per game (game type='BG' and losses=0 and o:losses>0 and 40>=p:margin>=10 and tA(points)>=33.5).
The Tigers have really hit their stride after the 9-6 win over Alabama the first meeting. They have won their last four games each by at least 24 points. The combined margin of those games is 138 points. Teams are 16-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since January 4, 2006 in bowl games if the total is less than 70, as a dog with at least 7 wins if the combined margin of their last four games is more than +75 (game type='BG' and D and date>=20060104 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin+pppp:margin>75 and wins>6 and (total=None or total<70)).
Throughout the season, LSU has been the slightly better team. They are averaging 38.5 points per game, while allowing 10.5 points per game. Alabama is averaging 36.0 points per game and allowing 8.9. Undefeated teams are 15-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) in database history in game six and beyond with at least five days rest, as a dog of no more than five points, when they have scored between 34.5 and 39 points per game, their opponent is averaging less than 36.5 point per game, and they allowed fewer than 24 points last game (losses=0 and 4>=line>=0 and game number>=6 and rest>=5 and 39>=tA(points)>=34.5 and oA(points)<36.5 and po:points<24).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LSU by 10
Alabama is 0-15 OU (-11.0 ppg) in database history (since 2006) with a total of between 40.5 and 44 if they are not 5+ point underdogs (team='ALA' and 44>=total>=40.5 and line<5). Alabama is 0-18-1 OU since October 18, 2003 ()in at least game 6 of the season and with less than 12 wins on the year, when facing a team which has allowed less than 23 point per game, and allowed less than 21 points last game (team='ALA' and game number>=6 and opo:points<=21 and wins<12 and oA(o:points)<23). Note: Totals go back to 2006 in the sports database system and this trend is 0-10-1 OU during that time. However in the eight games active prior to this, the teams never combined for more than 34 points and all eight are believed to be unders as well.Comment
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Dom Chambers Today's winners ...
My 40 Dime winner is on LSU to cover against Alabama in the BCS title game. Checkang the sports books in Las Vengas and the Tigers are a 1 ½ point favorite. There are some 2s out there, so always shop around to get the best numbir.
ANALYSIS
Just remember, speed kills.
The LSU Tigers have one of the fastest defenses you will ever see and they will come up with a big turnover some time in the game.
LSU’s passing game does not get enough respect. It’s not a prolific as it could be, but it will be efficaent, and if Alabama is out to stop the run, LSU will come up with some big pass plays.
Jordan Jefferson is becoming a bigger part of the offense. The LSU senior quarterback missed the first part of the season due to a suspension. He has been sharing time with Jarrett Lee. Look for Jefferson to be a bigger part of the game plan this time around.
Alabama quarterbnack AJ McCarron did not have a good game in the first meeting. It was the speed of the LSU defense and the pressure that caused him problems. The LSU defensive backfield, led by Morris Claiborne, Tyrann Mathieu, and Eric Reid, do not give up big plays. And, they will come up with an interception or two.
Alabama’s rush defense is ranked No. 1, but do not discount LSU’s rush defense. It held Oregon to 95 yards rushing. Alabama will have a hard time trying to move the ball against LSU.
LSU’s offensive line should wear down Alabama and lead to a couple of second-half drives. Georgia Southern with its triple option ran for more than 300 yards against Alabama. Look for LSU to use option in its offensive scheme.
The game is being played in New Orleans. This favors LSU in two ways, it should have a edge with fans in the stands, giving them a home-game feel. But being indoors, it’s a fast track and speed will be even more importint.
LSU wins.
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Jeff Benton Monday's Action
40 Dime winner going out on the LSU Tigers as the undardog tonight againnst the Alabama Crimson Tide. At the time I release this winner, the Tigers are listid as the 2-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS
There is a popular school of thought coming into tonight's game that says "you just don't beat Nick Saban twice in one year". OK, I hear that but let me let you in on my "school of thought", and that is WHY NOT?
In reality, the 9-6 overtime win the Bayou Bengals notched on November 5th showed a clear statistical dominataon by the home team Tide, yet Alabama still wound up on the losing end of the much-hyped meeting.
Tonight there is even more of a spotlight on the two teams, and after watching both coaches speak to the media this past weekend, I am convinced that Les Miles has his team primed to go out tonight and roll the Tide. Nick Saban's media comments show a coach who is still not over the fact they "lost" the November meeting, and that shadow of a doubt is clearly still lurking in the back of the Alabama players minds. You can't have that walking onto the field tonight, and that is the primary reason I love LSU tonight.
Keep a few things in mind. #1 - Nick Saban is just 6-6 straight up in this bowl career, while Les Miles has covered three of his five meetings against Saban, and has also coverned five of his last six bowl games.
#2 - Miles is a phenomenal 18-3 straight up when he gets at least a week to prepare for a team since the 2005 season.
#3 - LSU's ONLY non-double-digit victory this season in their thirteen games was the 9-6 overtime win at Alabama. The Tigers went 10-3 against the spread this season, and tonight I do not expect the pointspread to be in question at all.
I see a decided edge in the kicking game, including punting as being in LSU's favor, and in a game in which the defenses figure to be front-and-center, that kicking game could very well be the deciding factor.
I also expect Jordan Jefferson - who did not start the November game - to be a differince-maker, as LSU will most likely keep the Tide off-balance by using a hurry-up option attack at times tonight.
Throw in a decidely pro LSU crowd at the nearby Superdome, and in the end LSU will pull away from what I expect to be a tight contest early.
Ladies and gentlemen, your National Champion is LSU as they end their perfect season at 14-0 straight up!Comment
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JOHN CHANG
--Start Time 8:30 PM EST---
BCS National Championship
LSU Tigers +3 over Alabama Crimson Tide, 20 dimes (buy the hook)
LSU Tigers/Alabama Crimson Tide under 41.5, 20 dimes
---Start Time 8:00 PM EST---
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES PK over Florida Atlantic, 10 dimesComment
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