2-5-12

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Norm Hitzges

Double plays

Giants
Giants under

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Pick 'n' roll: Sunday's best NBA bets

Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 179)

Jesus Shuttlesworth has game. And he's had a whole lot of game especially since returning from an ankle injury on January 29.

Ray Allen missed three games late last month with the injury, but he has now scored in double-figures in four straight outings. Allen is scoring 15 points per game during this stretch and he has connected on 11 of 19 three-point attempts in his last four.

Not coincidentally, the Celtics have won three in a row and seven of their last eight (5-3 ATS) heading into Sunday's home game against the Grizzlies. They have won four of their last five at home after Friday's 91-89 comeback victory over the Knicks.

The Grizzlies are mediocre at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 34.8 percent from beyond the arc (16th best in the NBA). As for the team's overall outlook, Memphis has lost five of its last seven games (3-4 ATS).

Pick: Celtics

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat (-16, 189)

Don't be alarmed by the bloated 16-point spread. When the Raptors have been losing of late, they have been losing in a major way.

Toronto lost by 15 at Denver on January 27 before things really got ugly. The team fell 100-77 at home to Atlanta on Tuesday and it got blown out 100-64 at Boston on Wednesday. The Raptors have actually won two of their last five, but those victories came against lowly New Jersey and Washington.

Such is life for Toronto without Andrea Bargnani, who has missed the last five games (and all three blowout losses) with a strained left calf. Bargnani sustained the injury on January 25 against the Jazz and he remains out indefinitely.

Miami, on the other hand, actually has all hands on deck at the moment. Every one of the Big 3 is healthy and they played like it in a dominant 20-point road win at Philadelphia on Friday. Dwyane Wade scored 26 points, Chris Bosh added 12, and LeBron James contributed 19 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists.

Pick: Heat

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College funds: Sunday's best NCAAB bets

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-8.5, 126)

Michigan State is 13-0 at home this season and 7-3 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in their last four. The Spartans, however, could be in unfamiliar territory on Sunday against Michigan.

Senior captain Draymond Green, who leads the team in both scoring (14.9 ppg) and rebounding (10.2) suffered a knee injury in a 42-41 loss at Illinois on Tuesday. It could have been worse, but the sprain leaves Green probable for the rivalry game against the Wolverines. He was recently upgraded from doubtful, but he may not be 100 percent.

Michigan State needs Green at full strength because Michigan is playing solid basketball and is a half-game ahead of the Spartans in the Big Ten standings at 7-3. The Wolverines are coming off a 68-56 home win over Indiana on Wednesday.

The Spartans will have to do a better job of containing Michigan guard Trey Burke, who went for 18 points against Indiana and has scored in double-figures in 16 of his last 17 games. Burke scored a game-high 20 points in a 60-59 win over Michigan State on January 17.

Pick: Michigan

Villanova Wildcats at Pittsburgh Panthers (-8, 144.5)

An eight-game slide in December and January was Pittsburgh's longest in more than 10 years. It should come as no surprise that the end of the losing streak coincided with the return of point guard Tray Woodall.

Woodall missed the last six games of the skid with an abdominal injury before returning on January 21. The Panthers lost at home to Louisville, but Woodall was easing back into action and contributed only two assists and one rebound.

Now, though, Pittsburgh is in the midst of a three-game winning streak (all versus Big East competition) and Woodall has been a huge factor in all three games. He had 17 points and nine assists in a blowout of Providence, dished out 10 assists in a 12-point victory over Georgetown, and poured in 24 points in a win at West Virginia on Tuesday. The Panthers covered the spread in all three contests.

"We were flowing," Woodall said after beating Providence last week. "We were setting each other up. When I'm out there it allows guys more room to work the ball and everyone is able to get shots. It looked real good out there with everyone knocking down shots with confidence."

Villanova, meanwhile, is 1-6 on the road this season and the team has lost two in a row overall (0-2 ATS).

Pick: Pittsburgh

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Ice picks: Sunday's best NHL bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils (108, 5)

No Sidney Crosby, no problem. At least for the moment.

The Penguins had won eight in a row prior to Wednesday's 1-0 loss at Toronto. They scored 33 goals during those eight wins, an average of 4.13 goals per game. Pittsburgh scored only two goals on Saturday, but it still won 2-1 at Boston.

New Jersey, meanwhile, is giving up goals at an alarming rate. The Devils allowed four on Saturday at Philadelphia, but they came away with a 6-4 victory. They have surrendered 20 goals in their last five contests.

The Devils have three players questionable for Sunday's home date with Pittsburgh. Center Ryan Carter (two goals, two assists, 60 penalty minutes) is dealing with a hand injury, center Adam Henrique (13 goals, 21 assists) has missed three games due to a groin problem, and a bruised back has sidelined defenseman Adam Larsson (two goals, 14 assists) for the last two contests.

Pick: Penguins

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers (-138, 5.5)

Starting goalie Henrik Lundqvist is a huge reason why the Rangers are on top of the Atlantic Division and in contention for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. He is in the top five in all four of the key goaltending categories; wins (fifth with 23), shutouts (tied for first with six), GAA (second at 1.77), and save percentage (first at .939).

Lundqvist is especially on fire at the moment. He has allowed only two goals in his last three games and he is coming off two straight shutouts. On Wednesday he stopped 34 shots before New York won at Buffalo in a shootout.

The Flyers can expect to see Lundqvist in goal on Sunday because he had almost a week off for the All-Star break and he got some rest on Tuesday when backup Martin Biron was in goal for a shootout loss at New Jersey.

Pick: Rangers

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Nick " Bookie Killer" Parsons

Receivers and Tight Ends Props

Cruz vs. Welker - Most receiving yards by: Both players must play in game for action (Offense only). Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager. Official stats via NFL.com Any scoring changes after game is official are invalid towards wager.

Victor Cruz -10 receiving yards -110

Wes Welker +10 receiving yards -120

Suggested wager: Victor Cruz -10 receiving yards -110

Reason: While Wes Welker will surely see a few more touches here because of the injury to Rob Gronkowski, Welker is just one of many options for Tom Brady.

Welker (122 receptions, 1,569-yards, 9 TDs, on an average of 12.9 YPC), is utilized more in short crossing slant patterns, which takes advantage of his "quickness".

Victor Cruz on the other hand had a breakout season, with 82 receptions for 1,536 yards and 9 TDs; that's an average of 18.7 yards per catch.

And he is without a doubt Eli Manning's favorite target.

These players are very similar in many respects, each entering the league as undrafted free agents.

“It’s a very fine line,” Cruz said. “It takes a little bit of luck. It takes a lot of skill and a lot of determination, a lot of hard work…. It’s being in the right place at the right time, being with the right team, being at the right moment and making all the necessary plays when you have to.”

Cruz looked dominant in the NFC Championship game vs. the 49ers, collecting 142 receiving yards.

I always recommend caution when playing "prop" wagers, but this one seems pretty solid; good luck this Sunday!

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Florida State Saturday.

Sunday it’s the over in the Super Bowl. The deficit is 190 sirignanos.

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Turner

Game: N.Y. Giants vs New England
Pick: Over 55 (-110)

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ESPN "Expert Picks"

Notice the quotes...Take it for what it's worth.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Can Bill Belichick and Tom Brady lead the New England Patriots to their fourth Super Bowl title? Or will Eli Manning and the New York Giants pull off another upset of the Patriots and win their second ring in five seasons?

The oddsmakers made the Patriots slight favorites, but our experts are divided. The only thing we know for sure is that everyone has an opinion on the game.

John Clayton: Patriots, 24-20
It's hard to beat Tom Brady three times in a row at his game of comeback football in the fourth quarter. Although I worry about the Patriots' defense, I think Brady and Bill Belichick will find a way to squeak out a victory.

Dan Graziano: Giants, 31-24
The Giants weren't the best team in the NFL for most of this season, but they have been for the past six weeks. Eli Manning should torch an overmatched New England secondary. Frankly, the Giants' past two opponents were tougher than this one.

James Walker: Patriots, 27-24
I picked the Patriots in the preseason, so there's no point in backing out now. I doubt Tom Brady will have two bad games in a row, especially against an inconsistent Giants secondary.

Jeffri Chadiha: Giants, 28-24
New York has enough defense to control Tom Brady & Co. New England can't say the same when it comes to stopping the Giants' balanced offense.

Adam Schefter: Patriots, 27-16
The Giants are the better and more complete team. But they also have to figure out a way to beat Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the memory of Myra Kraft.

Ian O'Connor: Giants, 34-24
Four years ago, the Giants' pass rush negated the talent difference between Tom Brady and Eli Manning. This time around, the pass rush is just as fierce, and there is no discernible talent difference between Brady and Manning. No David Tyree required in the rematch.

Mike Reiss: Patriots, 30-20
This reminds me of the Nov. 13 game at the Jets, a contest in which many predicted trouble for the Patriots but the team came through. I think the Pats will do it again. While there is respect for the Giants' pass rush, it's not like opponents have been completely shut down by the unit. I expect some points from a faster-paced attack, and that quarterback Tom Brady will play better and limit mistakes. On the opposite side, the improved defense will limit the run and force Eli Manning into some long-yardage situations, and that's when the Patriots can dial up some pressure. Promises to be a good one.

Jamison Hensley: Patriots, 31-20
Tom Brady didn't play well in the AFC Championship Game, and he remembers losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl four years ago. A motivated Brady is a dangerous one. He will prove that you don't need a defense to win a ring.

Mike Sando: Patriots, 27-23
I'll stick with my preseason prediction/guess, so New England it is. But all the pressure is on the Patriots, same as four years ago.

Matt Williamson: Giants, 28-24
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are difficult to pick against, but I don't see this as a very good matchup for New England. Expect several big plays from the Giants' wide receivers. I also think New York will pressure Brady well enough with only four pass-rushers, and its safeties and linebackers can do enough to slow down the Patriots' middle-of-the-field passing attack, especially if Rob Gronkowski isn't healthy.

More expert picks
ESPN.com writers
Name Score Why?

Bill Barnwell Patriots, 27-23 The first game between these teams came down to the Giants' taking advantage of Patriots backups on a crucial final drive, thanks to injuries. The Patriots' defense isn't healthy, but it should be healthy enough to hold off the G-Men this time around in yet another close Giants-Pats game.
Rich Cimini Giants, 31-27 The Giants are more balanced on both sides of the ball. Eli Manning should pick apart the Patriots' patchwork secondary, but don't be surprised if the running game -- Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs -- emerges as the story.

Gregg Easterbrook Giants, 2-0 Confusion about the new playoff overtime format reigns when the Giants onside kick to start overtime and the Patriots recover but run the wrong way.

Kate Fagan Giants, 31-27 The Giants are a runaway train. They seem to have convinced themselves that this Sunday will be a repeat performance of Super Bowl XLII, and the Patriots' defense isn't strong enough to stop that momentum.

David Fleming Giants, 28-24 Both quarterbacks will take a beating in this game, but while Eli Manning plays bigger and better in these situations, Tom Brady tends to shrink.

Chris Forsberg Patriots, 17-14 The Revenge Tour crescendos with Rob Gronkowski making a ridiculous TD grab that's one part David Tyree and another part Curt Schilling's bloody sock. No leaving the field early for Bill Belichick this time around. The only thing that'll tear him away from this celebration is submitting the paperwork to rename his boat VI Rings.

Ashley Fox Giants, 27-24 The Giants are on a Packers-esque roll, and the Patriots haven't lit the playoffs on fire. Eli Manning will torch the New England secondary to get his second ring in big brother's house.

D.J. Gallo Patriots, 27-24 The Patriots will get a measure of revenge for their loss in Super Bowl XLII. But "12-8" shirts mocking the Giants' defeat probably won't sell as well as those "18-1" shirts did.

Greg Garber Giants, 16-13 Revenge is swee -- oh, wait. The Giants' defense is marginally better than the Patriots'.

Paul Kuharsky Giants, 27-23 Hardly rocket science, but I envision the New York pass rush and the New England pass defense being the biggest factors in the game. Still, with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady cast as "underdogs," the Patriots are scary.

Jackie MacMullan Patriots, 27-24 Is there any doubt this game goes down to the final two minutes?

Elizabeth Merrill Patriots, 21-20 I've gone back and forth on this. I truly thought, two months ago, that the Giants would be the most dangerous team if they made the playoffs. But Tom Brady and Bill Belichick rarely lose these kind of games.

Rick Reilly Giants, 25-24 Sixty-five thousand people will learn to salsa at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Mike Rodak Patriots, 27-24 It's a back-and-forth contest that will yet again test the Patriots' mettle. Tom Brady will be hit and pressured, and probably will throw an interception or two. This game will be decided by the Patriots' defense and its ability to stop Eli Manning when it counts most. Some way, somehow -- just as this season has gone -- the Patriots will come out on top.

Kevin Seifert Giants, 27-21 The Giants' defensive line overpowered the Patriots four years ago and is in position to do the same Sunday.

Ross Tucker Giants, 27-24 The Giants' trio of wide receivers will be too much for the Patriots' defense to handle. The Rob Gronkowski injury will loom large for the Pats' offense, as their biggest weapon won't be nearly as effective as he normally is.

Seth Wickersham Giants, 30-24 Eli Manning is a safer bet in the playoffs than the post-2005 Tom Brady. Oh, and the Giants are a more well-rounded team.

Bill Williamson Patriots, 27-17 Eli Manning won't grab another Super Bowl ring on Tom Brady's watch. Brady will add to his legacy as one of the best Super Bowl performers of all time with a masterful performance against a strong defense.

Pat Yasinskas Giants, 28-24 Most people think Bill Belichick is the best coach in the world. I think Tom Coughlin is at least as good, and a victory against Belichick will open the way for Coughlin to get the recognition he deserves.

Ohm Youngmisuk Giants, 31-27 Eli Manning is a better QB than he was in SB XLII. He also has more dangerous receivers. The Patriots don't want to give Manning the ball for a last-minute drive again. Much of the attention has been on the Giants' pass rush, but the secondary and linebackers will come up big as they did against Green Bay.

ESPN analysts
Name Score Why?
Chris Berman Patriots, 27-23 Much respect to the Giants, but I think Tom Brady is ready to top even himself.

Tedy Bruschi Patriots, 27-24 Stephen Gostkowski writes his name next to Adam Vinatieri in the book of Super Bowl heroes with a game-winning kick as time expires.

Michelle Beadle Giants, 28-25 The Giants will ride the momentum train and the backs of their defense -- and I don't like the Patriots.

Cris Carter Giants, 28-24 All I can say is "salsa."

Colin Cowherd Patriots, 28-27 The media coverage and the tenor of the Super Bowl has been overwhelmingly New York, and I sense an upset.

Trent Dilfer Patriots, 28-27 My brain tells me the matchups are in the Giants' favor, but my gut tells me the revenge factor wins out.

Mike Ditka Giants, 24-17 The Giants are better on both sides of the ball, and the Patriots are going to have a tough time scoring a lot of points against this defense.

Herm Edwards Patriots, 31-27 From what I've seen the past five weeks, the Giants are the best team going into this game, but it's going to boil down to red zone offense. I see Tom Brady throwing four touchdowns and Eli Manning throwing three.

Mike Golic Giants, 24-20 Right now the Giants are playing better than the Patriots, and I think they're a more balanced team. It could come down to who has the ball last, and if the Giants have the ball last, I have a lot of faith in Eli Manning to do what he did in Week 9 against the Patriots.

Mike Greenberg Giants, 34-20 I like the Giants in a big way -- a big way for Big Blue. They are the healthier team, and that's the most important factor. They're the hotter team, and, frankly, they're the better team. I like the Giants, and I don't think it's that close.

Jon Gruden Patriots, 30-27 I don't think you can get Tom Brady twice in the same game.

Tim Hasselbeck Patriots, 27-24 Even though I see this as a bad matchup for the Patriots, I believe their ability to control the tempo on offense will be the difference in the game and will prevent Tom Brady from getting hit too often.

Merril Hoge Giants, 27-20 The NFL is about matchups, and all the matchups are in the Giants' favor. They just need to execute.

Tom Jackson Giants, 24-20 All the emotional intangibles are in the Patriots' favor, but I believe the Giants are a better football team -- and a healthier team.

Ron Jaworski Giants, 27-21 Eli Manning is on a roll, and Hakeem Nicks will have a big game against the Patriots' makeshift secondary.

Suzy Kolber Giants, 27-24 Finally healthy, the Giants' D is the force they hoped it would be before the season started. Their pass rush can get Brady off his mark. Offensively, no QB has been more clutch this season than Eli Manning and he's complemented by two weapons that weren't available when they beat the Patriots in Week 9.

Steve Levy Giants, 31-30 Eli Manning is now just as cool as Tom Brady, although in a different way.

Kenny Mayne Patriots, 31-30 I take New England by one point because that's the minimum a team can win by and I see it as a pick 'em game. If Ed Hochuli can explain in 30 minutes or less how a team can win by less than a point, I will believe him and make that my prediction.

Eric Mangini Patriots, 34-31 The Giants have become the trendy pick and I understand why. Tom Brady, however, is going to have better answers to the problems New York can create and he will take advantage of the Giants' inconsistent disguise. Both teams will score a lot of points and it will probably come down to who has the ball last.

Chris Mortensen Giants, 34-24 Everybody wants to talk about the last time these two teams played in the Super Bowl. That's irrelevant. This time the Giants are just the better team. They have played a tougher schedule and are more battle-tested.

Sal Paolantonio Patriots, 31-27 We're in the middle of a trilogy. Super Bowl XLII was a new hope, and you can't have a "Return of the Jedi" without "The Empire Strikes Back."

Antonio Pierce Giants, 29-27 Eli Manning in the fourth quarter will do what he has done all year long -- throw a game-winning touchdown.

Jerry Rice Giants, 28-21 The Giants are too strong on defense with Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora, who hopefully shows up for the game. Also, the Patriots don't have the secondary to keep up.

Ryen Rusillo Patriots, 24-20 The Patriots will have a similar game plan to what they did against Baltimore to neutralize the Giants' front.

Mark Schlereth Patriots, 27-24 Everything points to the Giants but Bill Belichick will have a one-back plan that attacks the Giants' NASCAR front and keeps pressure off Brady.

Stuart Scott Giants, 31-27 I always expect greatness out of Tom Brady, but I just don't know how New England's secondary is going to contain Manningham, Cruz and Nicks.

Mike Tirico Patriots, 28-22 It's hard for me to think that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will lose their second Super Bowl in five
years to the Giants.

Scott Van Pelt Patriots, 23-20 The entire basis of this pick is Tom Brady, and that's ridiculous.

Trey Wingo Patriots, 27-24 Every matchup favors the Giants, so of course I'm going with the Patriots.

Damien Woody Giants, 27-24 The Giants have two things in their favor: a hot quarterback in Eli Manning who can expose a poor New England secondary, and a pass rush that can get after Tom Brady.

Scouts Inc.
Name Score Why?
Gary Horton Giants, 23-17 The difference in this game is the evolving three-wide receiver package that we didn't see early on. The Giants can match the Patriots' offensive explosiveness, and they are playing at a higher level.

Doug Kretz Giants, 24-21 The Giants can be one of the most dominating run teams in the league, and with the issues New England's defense has had with tackling, I'd look for Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be difference- makers. Also, the Giants' pass-rush pressure package will make it difficult for Tom Brady to excel, especially if TE Rob Gronkowski is not totally healthy.

Ken Moll Patriots, 30-28 Both clubs have excellent QBs with several weapons who can move the chains. Both defenses have been much improved over the last half of the season, but it will be the red zone scoring defense that will determine the outcome. I give a slight edge to the Patriots in this phase and thus a close victory.

ESPN.com NFL editors
Name Score Why?
John Banks Giants, 30-24 Expect TE Rob Gronkowski to play, but he'll be limited with a high ankle sprain, and so will the Patriots' offense. The Giants will shut down Aaron Hernandez, further limiting Tom Brady's options. This game will be close through three quarters, but New York will pull away late. MVP: Eli Manning. Does that cement his Hall of Fame status? That's a definite, ahh, maybe.

Larry Graham Giants, 24-17 A touchdown by the Giants' defense will be the difference. Plus, Tom Brady hasn't beaten an elite quarterback all season.

Alex Kimball Giants, 31-23 Who would have thought a team that was swept by the 5-11 Redskins and lost four in a row in the regular season would crush the 15-1 Packers at Lambeau in the playoffs? I haven't guessed correctly on the Giants once this season, but there's a first time for everything … right?

Rico Longoria Giants, 35-31 The Patriots will make their share of plays but the Giants' pass-rush pressure will eventually be too much for New England's offense, and New York's advantage at wide receiver will be the difference.

Rob Peterson Giants, 33-30 In the first OT game in Super Bowl history, the Patriots win the toss and drive for a field goal and a 30-27 lead. On their possession, the Giants gain 3 yards on an Ahmad Bradshaw dive. On second-and-7 from their 23, Eli Manning finds Victor Cruz on a drag route over the middle. He takes it 77 yards to give the Giants their second NFL title in five years.

Shawna Seed Patriots, 27-24 The Patriots won't be caught by surprise this time.

Patrick Stiegman Patriots, 37-31 You can't spell "elite" without Eli, nor can you spell "TCB" without TCB -- and Tom "Competitor" Brady will take care of business. Revenge for SB XLII? Check. Redeem un-Bradyesque AFC title game? Check. Restore rep as QB of the present, not ghost of Super Bowls past? Check. Seven years removed from his last NFL title, expect a Very Brady Sequel.

Scott Symmes Patriots, 24-20 Rob Gronkowski is banged up, and the Patriots' secondary is vulnerable. Still, my gut says Tom Brady & Co. will find a way -- how's that for hard-hitting analysis?

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DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 2802-862 (.765)
ATS: 1127-1270 (.470)
ATS Vary Units: 3383-4067 (.454)
Over/Under: 1182-1208 (.495)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1437-1421 (.503)

Atlantic Coast Conference
DUKE 81, Miami (Fla.) 69
Big East Conference
PITTSBURGH 75, Villanova 69
West Virginia 75, PROVIDENCE 70
Big Ten Conference
ILLINOIS 68, Northwestern 60
MICHIGAN STATE 66, Michigan 58
Minnesota vs. NEBRASKA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Horizon League
Cleveland State 65, UIC 55
Youngstown State 60, LOYOLA (CHICAGO) 56
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
FAIRFIELD 68, Siena 57
Loyola (Md.) 66, SAINT PETER'S 55
RIDER 79, Niagara 71
Southland Conference
McNEESE STATE 60, Stephen F. Austin 56

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DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 228-108 (.679)
ATS: 182-171 (.516)
ATS Vary Units: 534-482 (.526)
Over/Under: 166-181 (.478)
Over/Under Vary Units: 396-469 (.458)

BOSTON 89, Memphis 87
MIAMI 103, Toronto 87

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DCI NHL

Season: 248-182 (.577)

Boston vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pittsburgh vs. NEW JERSEY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. RANGERS 3, Philadelphia 2
MONTREAL 3, Winnipeg 2

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Michigan at Michigan State

The Spartans look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 home games. Michigan State is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has he Spartans favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 5 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 805-806: West Virginia at Providence (12:00 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 66.695; Providence 59.148 Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7 1/2; 139 Vegas Line: West Virginia by 4 1/2; 144 Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Michigan at Michigan State (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 67.933; Michigan State 78.413 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 10 1/2; 129 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 8 1/2; 126 Dunkel Pick Michigan State (-8 1/2); Over

Game 809-810: Minnesota at Nebraska (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 65.004; Nebraska 62.177 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 128 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1; 123 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1); Over

Game 811-812: Youngstown State at Loyola-Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 51.742; Loyola-Chicago 49.059 Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 2 1/2; 116 Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 4; 118 Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+4); Under

Game 813-814: Cleveland State at Illinois Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 61.429; Illinois-Chicago 54.162 Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7 1/2; 121 Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 9 1/2; 126 Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+9 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Villanova at Pittsburgh (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 60.996; Pittsburgh 70.725 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 153 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 148 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-8); Over

Game 817-818: Miami (FL) at Duke (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 62.066; Duke 75.909 Dunkel Line: Duke by 14; 144 Vegas Line: Duke by 11 1/2; 148 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Duke (-11 1/2); Under

Game 819-820: Northwestern at Illinois (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.207; Illinois 70.364 Dunkel Line: Illinois by 8; 133 Vegas Line: Illinois by 6; 130 Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-6); Over

Game 821-822: Niagara at Rider (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 49.251; Rider 57.154 Dunkel Line: Rider by 8; 147 Vegas Line: Rider by 5 1/2; 153 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Rider (-5 1/2); Under

Game 823-824: Loyola-MD at St. Peter's (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 57.493; St. Peter's 47.096 Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 10 1/2; 127 Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 8 1/2; 123 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-8 1/2); Over

Game 825-826: Siena at Fairfield (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.207; Fairfield 57.683 Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 8 1/2; 130 Vegas Line: Fairfield by 11; 125 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Siena (+11); Over

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Today's NBA Picks

Toronto at Miami

The Raptors look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Toronto is the pick (+16 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+16 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 5 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Memphis at Boston (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.678; Boston 124.681 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3; 180 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5; 177 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5); Over

Game 803-804: Toronto at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.264; Miami 125.711 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 12 1/2; 185 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 16 1/2; 188 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+16 1/2); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at New Jersey

The Devils look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games when playing with 0 days of rest. New Jersey is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 5 Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Boston at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.661; Washington 10.497 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over

Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at New Jersey (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.144; New Jersey 12.653 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-125); 5 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+105); Under

Game 5-6: Philadelphia at NY Rangers (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.014; NY Rangers 10.498 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Under

Game 7-8: Winnipeg at Montreal (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 19.951; Montreal 11.488 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130); Over

[poopoo333]

FREDDY WILLS

Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 53.5 (3.3* play)

Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots.

Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf.

It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots.

One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day.

7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over.

Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.



PROPS

1ST SCORE FG +150 (1* PLAY)

It's nearly a guarantee that the Giants will have the ball first. Why? Well if New England wins the toss they have deferred to the second half every time this season while the Giants have opted to receive in 7 of their 9 wins including the first time these two played. Now even if the Giants do not score on the first possession they are still holding defenses to FG's 60% of the time in this year's playoffs. But suppose they drive the ball down into scoring possition. The Patriots defense has allowed 10 of 18 TD's on their opponents first scores. The Giants have a 41.67% TD percentage this post season while the Patriots are sneaky good in the red zone among the leagues top 15 and have held 50% of opponents to a FG or less in red zone trips over the last 3 games. I'll take those 50 50 odds at +150.

Giants U2.5 sacks -13.5 (1.5* play)

Now the Giants are 5th in sack % 7.51% of drop backs, but vs. the Patriots in the first game Brady dropped back 49 times and was sacked two times for 4.08%. Most of the Patriots design is for quick passes they don't wait for players to get down the field or take any crazy chances and they are very aware on how they lost the last Super Bowl. Brady ranked 6th getting sacked just 1.8 x per game and a 4.62%. I see a game plan much like the first which will be designed for quick decisions.

Patriots to get 1st sack +105 (1* play)

Patriots really came on with a pass rush towards the end of the season. Overall they were ranked pretty well 6.58% sacks and over their last 3 even better at 8.47% and that's better than the Giants 7.38%. Manning tends to hold onto the ball a little bit longer looking for the big play that's carried them all year. Over his last 3 games he's being sacked at a higher rate than the season 6.11% of his drop backs. He's also been passing more of late and the Patriots are capable of shutting down run games forcing this to be a pass first type game.

Patriots U5.5 -110 Penalties (2.2* play)

Not sure I understand this other than the fact the Patriots were flagged 7 times in the first match up at home. That was a sloppy performance they'll have cleaned up. I am sure this team is not very happy about the number of times they were penalized that caused many drives to stall. It was one of the reasons they lost the first match up. They only averaged 5/game on the season and over their last 3 they've averaged 2.3 penalties per game. Looking back at prior Super Bowls there is nothing that suggests you get flagged more in the Super Bowl than in the regular season.

Brady's longest completion (Under 42.5 yards -120) (2.5* play)

Brady had just 12 plays all year over 42.5 yards and 3 of them came from Gronkowski and while I think he'll be healthy enough to play he definitely won't require a lot of attention form the safeties to stretch the field. The Giants menawhile have allowed just 7 plays passing over 42.5 yards. Their pass rush is that good that you just do not have time to get down the field 2 of those 7 were on blown coverage and they played New Orleans in a dome and only allowed 1 play over 42.5 yards. Faced GB twice and never allowed a play over 40 yards. Most of the Patriots big plays this year have come vs. division opponents 5 to be exact. They know these teams well and they also do not have top pass rushing defenses. Brady will be happy to work the ball down the field dinking and dunking and keeping Eli Manning off the field as well as his defense.

Brady will not throw an interception +125 (1* play)

Nope I do not think he throws an interception. 9 of the 18 games they played this season he has not thrown an interception. He's thrown one in three straight games right now but I think he knows the 2 picks cost him in the first match up between them and the Giants. I think Brady comes out with his A game. The Giants are 16th in interceptions forced per drop back at 2.99% while the Patriots are 8th in interceptions thrown per drop back at 2.2%. Brady throws a pick every 50 attempts or so. He is due to go a game without throwing one here.


Bradshaw Over 3 receptions -125 (2.5* play)

Bradshaw is one of the best running backs in the league when it comes to receptions and getting yards. IN the first match up he was hurt so I look for him to be an X factor especially since the Giants targeted RB's 7 times with Jacobs (who is less elusive receiving the ball) had 4 receptions. Patriots will be trying desperately hard to take the Giants talented receivers out of this game which could open things up for the running backs and tight ends. Bradshaw already has 18 targets in the post season and 14 receptions. Bradshaw had 3 receptions in 9 of the 15 games he's played this season.

Travis Beckum Over 1.5 receptions +110 (2* play)

Beckum a talented TE out of Wisconsin really has come on late. The stats won't overwhelm you but he has gained a lot of ground when Ballard was hurt and I expect him to continue what he did vs. the 49ers which was catch the ball 4 times. Over the last 4 games he's gotten 8 targets and 7 receptions. I see great value here on him as he'll likely be in a 1 on 1 match up the entire game and Manning knows how to find receivers in those situations.

Nicks 1st TD of game +800 1*

I see great value here as I think the Patriots will first try to stop Victor Cruz. Hakeem Nicks is such a weapon he is a red zone threat and a goal line threat as well as a guy that can take it all the way. We know the Giants will have the ball first in this one because the Patriots always defer and the Giants always opt to receive so I think at 8 to 1 odds this is a pretty good value.

Branch 1st TD of game +1500 1*

With Gronkowski not 100% and Welker to have all the eyes on him and maybe getting double coverage and Hernandez also will get a lot of attention. Branch had 6 games iwth a TD this year and at +1500 I see plenty of value for him in this game if the Patriots come up with a stop in the opening drive.