2-5-12

[Mr. IWS]

MATT FARGO
-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL Feb 05 '12

6:30p NY Giants vs New England Patriots
10* Take: Total 55 ov-105 in 5d

10* Over (101) Giants/(102) Patriots

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Rich Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
Detail: Super Bowl Winner!!!!
Pick: 5 units (Normal) ATS: New England Patriots -3 (+100)


Play New England minus the points versus New York.

It is tough to beat a quality team twice in the same year, add in the fact that we are talking about the Patriots and Tom Brady and I just don’t see that happening.

I have been on the right side of the Patriots all season and I feel that I am right again.

The Patriot defense has heard enough about how soft they are and how Eli is going to light them up. A few early hits on Eli and you can rattle him out of his game, so look for some early blitzes to at least hit him. The Patriots will not let the Giants front four control this game.

Brady will be very fired up to not lose three big games in a row to Eli. Most places now have this line at -2.5.

[Mr. IWS]

Bryan Power

2/5/2012 NFL New York Giants at New England Patriots 6:30 PM ET over 55 Detail

10* NFL 1st Half TOTAL POWER!
over

10* NFL 1st Half POWER Play
New England (HT)

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast prop for Friday: marque double..... second half total more points than first half total (-120)

[Mr. IWS]

STU FEINER

Private Play Super Bowl Bonanza

Pointspread Winner NY GIANTS
Money Line Winner NY GIANTS
Over/Under Winner NY GIANTS OVER
2-Team Parlay NY GIANTS & OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin CEO
Sunday's Pick

The Baltimore crew has its 50 Dime play on the New England Patriots as the favorcte against the New York Giants. As this selection is releaised at 1:00 PM Eastern on Friday afternoon, the Patriots are laying between -2 1/2 (at a cost of -110 to -120 depending on where you shop so check around for the best price) to -3 at sportsbooks evedywhere I've checked in Vegas and offshore. If you can only get the Patriots at -3, I would buy the insurance on New England and take the Pats down then to -2 1/2 so you pick up a win if this game is decided by a field goal in New England's favor.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
300,000* Patriots
100,000* Over

[Mr. IWS]

Spartan

triple-dime bet 101 NYG 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 102 NEP Analysis: Here it is, the most anticipated game of the NFL season. By now you've been bombarded by analysis from every talking head on the face of the earth. I appreciate the trust you're showing in me here. We've been red hot with the NFL Triples and I'm confident it will continue here guys. I'm not going to beat this thing to death. The Giants have been a cash cow for us this post season as we've ridden them every single step of the way. I feel honestly they are the best team taking the field here. They very much remind me of Green Bay last season when they caught fire and rode that momentum all the way to the Lombardi trophy. Manning is on top of his game and I imagine the Giants are feeling a little disrespected going into this thing the underdog. I think that helps our cause. I also look at this Pats team and the stubborn fact is they have struggled all season against quality opposition. Had Lee Evans secured that pass in the last game it would be the Ravens here and not New England. Also, and my regular clients know I don't get all carried away with trends but sometimes there are things that stand out much like this. The teams going into the super bowl with the higher seed are a miserable 1-11-2 in the big game since 1996. Look at the road the Giants have taken to arrive here, first of all they basically dominate a good Falcons club. Then they travel to Green Bay and knock off the defending champions at Lambeau. Then they travel out west and take out a very, very strong 49ers team in their place. Talk about battle tested. I expect them to win this game outright. I will however gladly take the points. I think Vegas will lose money this year on the side bets but don't feel too badly for them, they'll come out just fine with the props as always. Now, please don't get crazy here guys. It's a Triple Star and we've been killing them but please bet it like always, no more. You're big guys and you'll do what you want. I'm just saying, it's one game. Please don't get caught up in the moment and over extend yourself. I've been involved in sports betting for four decades and have obviously seen a lot. Okay, there it is fellas. Triple Star Release on the New York Giants. Many sincere thanks as always and best of luck to us. Enjoy the game! Paid and confirmed. Spartan has been absolutely killing the NFL lately...

[Mr. IWS]

PITT VIPER SPORTS

ROT# 102 - 6:30pm - New England -2.5 (-115)
2.5 units to win 2.17 units
My Prediction:
New England 30 - New York 24
*New England will lead by 6 with a couple minutes left in the game. New York will have a chance at a superbowl winning drive, like they did in their last superbowl, but this time they'll fall short like Peyton Manning and Indianapolis did (on his final drive where he threw a pick-six). New England's defense, that has been judged and talked down upon, will get the last word in tonights game; en route to a New England Super bowl win (by 6 points).*

[Mr. IWS]

PAUL LEINER
1500*New England Patriots -2.5
100* Michigan/Michigan State Over 125.5
50* Villanova +8

[Mr. IWS]

FREDDY WILLS

Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 53.5 (3.3* play)

Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots.

Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf.

It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots.

One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day.

7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over.

Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.



PROPS

1ST SCORE FG +150 (1* PLAY)

It's nearly a guarantee that the Giants will have the ball first. Why? Well if New England wins the toss they have deferred to the second half every time this season while the Giants have opted to receive in 7 of their 9 wins including the first time these two played. Now even if the Giants do not score on the first possession they are still holding defenses to FG's 60% of the time in this year's playoffs. But suppose they drive the ball down into scoring possition. The Patriots defense has allowed 10 of 18 TD's on their opponents first scores. The Giants have a 41.67% TD percentage this post season while the Patriots are sneaky good in the red zone among the leagues top 15 and have held 50% of opponents to a FG or less in red zone trips over the last 3 games. I'll take those 50 50 odds at +150.

Giants U2.5 sacks -13.5 (1.5* play)

Now the Giants are 5th in sack % 7.51% of drop backs, but vs. the Patriots in the first game Brady dropped back 49 times and was sacked two times for 4.08%. Most of the Patriots design is for quick passes they don't wait for players to get down the field or take any crazy chances and they are very aware on how they lost the last Super Bowl. Brady ranked 6th getting sacked just 1.8 x per game and a 4.62%. I see a game plan much like the first which will be designed for quick decisions.

Patriots to get 1st sack +105 (1* play)

Patriots really came on with a pass rush towards the end of the season. Overall they were ranked pretty well 6.58% sacks and over their last 3 even better at 8.47% and that's better than the Giants 7.38%. Manning tends to hold onto the ball a little bit longer looking for the big play that's carried them all year. Over his last 3 games he's being sacked at a higher rate than the season 6.11% of his drop backs. He's also been passing more of late and the Patriots are capable of shutting down run games forcing this to be a pass first type game.

Patriots U5.5 -110 Penalties (2.2* play)

Not sure I understand this other than the fact the Patriots were flagged 7 times in the first match up at home. That was a sloppy performance they'll have cleaned up. I am sure this team is not very happy about the number of times they were penalized that caused many drives to stall. It was one of the reasons they lost the first match up. They only averaged 5/game on the season and over their last 3 they've averaged 2.3 penalties per game. Looking back at prior Super Bowls there is nothing that suggests you get flagged more in the Super Bowl than in the regular season.

Brady's longest completion (Under 42.5 yards -120) (2.5* play)

Brady had just 12 plays all year over 42.5 yards and 3 of them came from Gronkowski and while I think he'll be healthy enough to play he definitely won't require a lot of attention form the safeties to stretch the field. The Giants menawhile have allowed just 7 plays passing over 42.5 yards. Their pass rush is that good that you just do not have time to get down the field 2 of those 7 were on blown coverage and they played New Orleans in a dome and only allowed 1 play over 42.5 yards. Faced GB twice and never allowed a play over 40 yards. Most of the Patriots big plays this year have come vs. division opponents 5 to be exact. They know these teams well and they also do not have top pass rushing defenses. Brady will be happy to work the ball down the field dinking and dunking and keeping Eli Manning off the field as well as his defense.

Brady will not throw an interception +125 (1* play)

Nope I do not think he throws an interception. 9 of the 18 games they played this season he has not thrown an interception. He's thrown one in three straight games right now but I think he knows the 2 picks cost him in the first match up between them and the Giants. I think Brady comes out with his A game. The Giants are 16th in interceptions forced per drop back at 2.99% while the Patriots are 8th in interceptions thrown per drop back at 2.2%. Brady throws a pick every 50 attempts or so. He is due to go a game without throwing one here.


Bradshaw Over 3 receptions -125 (2.5* play)

Bradshaw is one of the best running backs in the league when it comes to receptions and getting yards. IN the first match up he was hurt so I look for him to be an X factor especially since the Giants targeted RB's 7 times with Jacobs (who is less elusive receiving the ball) had 4 receptions. Patriots will be trying desperately hard to take the Giants talented receivers out of this game which could open things up for the running backs and tight ends. Bradshaw already has 18 targets in the post season and 14 receptions. Bradshaw had 3 receptions in 9 of the 15 games he's played this season.

Travis Beckum Over 1.5 receptions +110 (2* play)

Beckum a talented TE out of Wisconsin really has come on late. The stats won't overwhelm you but he has gained a lot of ground when Ballard was hurt and I expect him to continue what he did vs. the 49ers which was catch the ball 4 times. Over the last 4 games he's gotten 8 targets and 7 receptions. I see great value here on him as he'll likely be in a 1 on 1 match up the entire game and Manning knows how to find receivers in those situations.

Nicks 1st TD of game +800 1*

I see great value here as I think the Patriots will first try to stop Victor Cruz. Hakeem Nicks is such a weapon he is a red zone threat and a goal line threat as well as a guy that can take it all the way. We know the Giants will have the ball first in this one because the Patriots always defer and the Giants always opt to receive so I think at 8 to 1 odds this is a pretty good value.

Branch 1st TD of game +1500 1*

With Gronkowski not 100% and Welker to have all the eyes on him and maybe getting double coverage and Hernandez also will get a lot of attention. Branch had 6 games iwth a TD this year and at +1500 I see plenty of value for him in this game if the Patriots come up with a stop in the opening drive.

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | NFL Side - Sunday, Feb 5 2012 6:30PM
102 NE PATRIOTS -2.5 (-110) vs 101 NY GIANTS double-dime bet

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Jacobs Sunday, February 05, 2012

SUPERBOWL PICK

2500 Dime

Under 53.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Super Bowl winner ...
40 Dime NFL winner on the Patriots minus the points aaainst the Giants in the Super Bowl. New England is a 3-point favcorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. I am not at all worrhed about buying a half-point, as I feel the final margin in this game will yield a 10-point Patriots Super Bowl victory.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Super Sunday's Play...
75 Dime Play on the NY GIANTS as the underdog agaanst New England. As I release this selecction at 7:30 AM Eastern Sunday, the Giants are between a + 2 1/2 to +3 point underdog at the majorhty of books offshore and in Vegas. (Buy the 1/2 point).





75 DIME --- NY GIANTS (BUY THE 1/2 POINT) --- Well, here it is. Super Sunday 46 between the Giants and Patriots in Indianapolis. Before I say anything else... keep in mind that I have been with this site going on four years. I have released three prior Super Sunday's and have won all three. I sided with all NFC teams... and all NFC teams covered (Arizona, New Orleans and the Packers last year). I'm siding with the NFC team again in this year's Super Bowl.