2-5-12

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS 3-0 +600.00 on Saturday

Miami +11½ over DUKE

There are literally thousands of folks in Las Vegas today that have never bet a college basketball regular season game in their lifetime. They step into college basketball in March when the Madness begins but know very little about it. That can apply here too. This game tips off at 3:00 PM EST, about the exact time that people will be heading to the sportsbooks to watch and parlay teams onto their Super Bowl choice. What we know for sure is that you're going to pay a premium to wager on the hugely popular Blue Devils. Duke is ranked #5 in the country, they're 6-1 in the conference and they're 19-3 overall. They're also at home here but we're not in the business of wagering on public teams with inflated lines. Miami is just 4-3 in the ACC and 13-7 overall. They've beaten the ACC bottom feeders and don't have a signature win all season long. However, the Hurricanes are improving with a dangerous four-man attack. They'll bring everything they have here, knowing this game will be viewed by millions. Of course the same can be said for Duke but the Blue Devils are no strangers to big televised games. It's a common occurance with them. The real kicker, however, is that the biggest rivalry in college basketball is on deck when the Dukies play North Carolina on Wednesday in the first of two meetings. That alone makes the Hurricanes worthy of a bet here and when you throw in the inflated number, it makes the 'Canes even more appealing. Play: Miami +11½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

ILL-CHICAGO +9½ over Cleveland St.

In the Horizon League, Valparaiso, Cleveland State and Butler are the only three programs that have any relevance whatsoever. This year it's the Cleveland State Vikings that sit in first place with a 9-2 record in the conference and a 19-4 overall record. These two played earlier in the year at Cleveland and the Vikings beat the Flames by 17. However, that was the game after Cleveland St. opened Horizon League play with a loss to Youngstown State and were in a foul mood. The dynamics for this one are so different in that the Vikings have won four in a row and seven of eight. CSU's last loss came on the road in Valparaiso and after this game they have home games against Valparaiso and Butler on deck and that's why they're in a dangerous or vulnerable spot here. This game means nothing. The Vikings know they have two huge games on deck and will take the Flames lightly. Illinois-Chicago isn't much. They're 3-9 in the conference and 7-15 overall. However, they play some decent defense and in what figures to be a low scoring game, expect the Flames to hang around. This one is all about taking back inflated points. Play: Illinois Chicago +9½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

LOYOLA-Chicago +4 over Youngstown St.

Sticking with the Horizon League in a similar situation as the one above, Loyola-Chicago comes in with an unblemished 0-12 mark in the conference. Now, we're not talking about them getting beat by Big East teams here. We're talking about a bunch of dregs that include Detroit, Wright State, Green Bay and Illinois-Chicago among others that the Ramblers have zero wins against. Overall, the Ramblers are 5-17 and the last time they won a game was before Christmas on Dec 22 against Canisius. Youngstown State is 7-5 in the conference and 12-10 overall. They look extremely enticing here but we know better. Again, on this Super Bowl Sunday, where folks are just itching to parlay teams onto their Super Bowl choice, this one really sticks out. What's so interesting is that the Penguins will play their third consecutive road game here and they have both Butler and Valparaiso coming up this week. The Penguins are just 2-8 in Loyola since joining the Horizon League and this one is just screaming to stay away from them. Small road favorite against an 0-12 conference foe is a recipe for disaster. Line says so. Play: Loyola-Chicago +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

4-STAR NY Giants and New England Under - We see this year in and year out. High-scoring teams make the Super Bowl and the totals get overinflated. There are two things about the Super Bowl which lend it two unders. First, it's a disjointed game with tons of breaks and a super-long halftime. This helps keep the defenses rested and the offenses out of peek rhythm. Finally, it's the biggest game of the year. Both plays and coaches tend to stay conservative. Since 2000, Super Bowls with a total of at least 46.5 are 0-7 OU. We see that becoming 0-8 here.
Both teams enter this game with an extra weeks rest. The Giants are 0-6 OU (-13.7 ppg) since October 03, 1993 away from home the week after their bye (team=Giants and D and (A or N) and 19931003<=date and p:week+2=week). New York has channeled its 2007 season here on their run to the Super Bowl. Their first round win over Atlanta was at home, but the last two have come on the road. The Giants are 0-10 OU (-5.9 ppg) since October 31, 2004 as a dog when the total was under 51 last game, when they won their last two road games and are facing a team averaging less than 33 points per game (team=Giants and D and p:total<51 and Sum((0 New York took it to the wire and beyond last week, defeating San Francisco, 20-17 in overtime. The Giants are 0-10 OU (-8.6 ppg) since 2003 after a win by three or fewer points where they were not 9+ point favorites (team=Giants and 0
=2003 and p:line>-9). New York was the only team which moved the ball consistently at all in that game and even that was sparse as they rushed for just 85 yards. Still they held the ball for over 39 minutes in that win, more than 11 minutes than the 49ers. The Giants are 0-15 OU (-9.4 ppg) since November 23, 1997 away from home after a win where they controlled the ball for at least three minutes more than their season-to-date average past week 3 while rushing for under 170 yards (team=Giants and A and p:W and 19971123<=date and p:TOP-tA(p:TOP)>=180 and p:RY<170 and week>3). The biggest reason for that was holding San Francisco to just 1-of-13 on third down attempts. The Giants are 0-9 OU (-9.1 ppg) since 2004 as a dog of between 2 and 12 points when facing a team averaging less than 35 ppg., if they allowed opponents to covert less than 33% of third downs last game (team=Giants and season>=2004 and po:3DP<33 and 12>=line>=2 and oA(points)<35). New England had a relatively low scoring game by their standards last week, winning 23-20 over Baltimore. They threw for just 234 yards in that game. The Patriots are 0-11-1 OU (-7.8 ppg) since October 30, 2005 went they scored 23 or fewer points last game with a total of at least 44.5 if they threw for between 130 and 300 yards last game (p:points<=23 and team=Patriots and 20051030<=date and p:total>=44.5 and 300>=p:PY>=130). Baltimore covered in that game as New England was a seven-point favorite. The Patriots are 0-17-1 OU (-7.4 ppg) since 1997 after a game which had a total of at least 44.5 which they failed to cover by between 2 and 20 points and scored less than 27 points while scoring no more than 14 in the fourth quarter (team=Patriots and season>=1997 and -20<=p:ats margin<=-2 and p:total>=44.5 and p:points<27 and p:P4<=14). Baltimore allowed Joe Flacco to throw over 300 yards in that game on 22 completions but it still did not turn into enough points to go over. They are allowing 12.2 yards per completion this season. The Giants are 0-11 OU (-15.6 ppg) since 1994 as a dog or pick when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 11.88 yards per completion season-to-date past week two (team=Giants and season>=1994 and week>2 and oA(o:YPC) >=11.88 and line>=0). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 47 Points

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK

3 Giants

4 Illinois
3 Cleveland St

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAY

3 UNIT PLAY

NY Giants/ New England Under 53: I know what kind of offenses these teams have, but these teams same teams played earlier in the year and there were just 44 points scored in that one. In fact if we look back at the 8 meetings between these teams, dating back to 1987, we will find that just one of those games put up more than 50 points. The last time these teams met in the Super Bowl both teams also had solid offenses, but just 31 points and 612 totals yards were put up in that one. The Giant defense has been solid down the stretch as they have allowed just 13.4 ppg and 318.8 ypg in their last 5 games. The Giants have allowed 255.1 ypg through the air on the year, which is 29th in the league, but in the Playoffs they have allowed just 200.7 ypg. Earlier in the year the Giants had a lot of defensive injuries and it really had them getting off to a slow start, but this unit is the healthiest it has been all year and they should continue to play well in this one. Defense has not been the strength of this New England team this year as they ranked second to last in passing defense (293 .7 ypg allowed) and 31st in total defense (411.1 ypg). Despite the weak overall defensive numbers, the Pats are still allowing just 21.4 ppg, which is 15th in the league. Now i have talked about yards per point being a very effective tool in football handicapping as it is the one stat that shows exactly what a team does with the ball. The Pats have a defensive YPP of 19.4 and that is second in the league behind San Francisco. This is a bend but don't break defense that knows hows to tighten it up the closer to the redzone they get. On offense we know that the Giants can throw the ball all over the field, but that is not really the way to beat the Pats. you need to run the ball to keep Brady and company off the field and now that the giant run game has been very good down the stretch, they feel they can pound away in this one vs a Patroit's defense that has allowed 117.1 ypg on the ground overall and 122ypg in their last 3 games. a lot of running by the Giants will help shorten the game and keep that clock running. The Patriots will also need to run the ball so as they look to keep the solid giants pass rush honest and that could work on the clock as well. I know full well that these teams have the ability to put up a ton of points, but history has shown that when these teams meet a low scoring game has prevailed more often than not and while i do not see just 31 points being scored like the last time, I do see a game in the mid to upper 40's.

[Mr. IWS]

Ferringo CBB

CBB:

#813 Cleveland State (-9.5) over Illinois-Chicago (2 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)
#810 Nebraska (-1) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)

#807 Michigan (+7) over Michigan State (1 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)
#822 Rider (-5) over Niagara (1 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)



TEASER: #813 Cleveland State (-4.5) over Illinois-Chicago (2 p.m.) AND #823 Loyola (-3.5) over St. Peter's (Noon)

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4* Take Under 176.5 Memphis vs. Boston

4* Michigan state*-7 over Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex

15 Ill Chic under 126

[Mr. IWS]

C-STAR SPORTS

30 Units New England -2.5 over Giants buy 1/2pt if have to.
10 Units NBA Toronto +16.5 OVER Miami
10 Units CBB Youngstown St. -4 over Loyola Chicago