3-16-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

RAS

Twitter plays not subscription plays

St Mary's +1

Florida -3

NC State -2

[Mr. IWS]

Turner

3/16/2012
Game: Purdue vs St. Mary's
Pick: Purdue -2 (-110)

3/16/2012
Game: Ohio vs Michigan
Pick: Ohio +6 (-110)

3/16/2012
Game: N.C. State vs San Diego St.
Pick: N.C. State -1.5 (-110)


3/16/2012
Game: Detroit vs Kansas
Pick: Detroit +14 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Joe Gaffney
Taiwan TEN STAR GAME OF THE YEAR on ST MARYS

[Mr. IWS]

Master Release Confidential
CBB Plays for Friday, March 16
Virginia +3.5
Belmont +4
St. Louis +3

[Mr. IWS]

Double dragon tourney picks day 2

TOP
NC STATE -2 vs sd state
BELMONT +3.5 vs georgetown

REGULAR
CREIGHTON +1 vs alabama
USF +2.5 vs temple
DETROIT +14 vs kansas

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

3* Xavier
3* St. Bonaventure
3* Trail Blazers

[Mr. IWS]

Prediction Machine 3/16


Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS Calc Play
830 1:40 PM CREIGHTON ALABAMA 1.5 2.7 61.6 Calc --> Play
850 2:10 PM FLORIDA VIRGINIA -3.5 6.8 59.4 Calc --> Play
841 12:15 PM TEXAS CINCINNATI 2 1.2 59.2 Calc --> Play
835 3:10 PM BELMONT GEORGETOWN 4 -1.1 57.9 Calc --> Play

Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Calc Play
850 2:10 PM VIRGINIA vs FLORIDA 121 129.5 Over 61.4 Calc --> Play
828 4:10 PM VERMONT vs UNC 144.5 135.9 Under 60.0 Calc --> Play
832 9:20 PM LONG ISLAND vs MICHIGAN ST. 154 145.0 Under 59.9 Calc --> Play
826 9:45 PM XAVIER vs NOTRE DAME 124.5 130.9 Over 58.2 Calc --> Play
830 1:40 PM ALABAMA vs CREIGHTON 132 138.6 Over 58.2 Calc --> Play

Key**65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play
< 53% No Pick
Upset Watch
Top ATS Play of the Day
Lock of the Week

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Memphis +60-1 to win tournament

There's a wagering term used in boxing and it's called a throwaway bet. Simply put, it's just not worth the money to wager on one of the four top seeds because it just doesn't pay enough. With that said, there is almost always a team or two that surprises and makes it into the Final Four and the Memphis Tigers could be that team this season. They are way under the radar but make no mistake, they're so dangerous too. The Tigers rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage with star sophomore guard Will Barton having connected on 52.5 percent of his team-high 406 regular-season shot attempts. Power forward Tarik Black converted a school-record 68.2 percent of his attempts during the regular season and is a huge factor in Memphis' sometimes sketchy half-court offense. Memphis' efficiency numbers -- both offensively and defensively -- are impressive and its exceptional collection of midsized athletes can't keep a physical opponent off the backboards. The Tigers have been fattening up on a weak roster of C-USA teams. One wonders what will happen when they face a power conference squad in the Big Dance with the athletes to match them but that's the beautiful thing about this wager. Nobody really knows how good they are and while it's absolutely conceivable for them to get knocked out by the Billikens in the first game, it's also very possible that they survive the weekend and than this wager will really pick up steam. The price makes them the most appealing team in the field at long odds. Play: Memphis +6000 (Risking 0.2 units to win 12).

N.C. State -2½ over San Diego State Pinnacle

The Aztecs have been overachieving all season and their draw, N.C. State on the East Coast, is not favorable. SDSU finished the season with eight straight games against weak competition before losing by nine to New Mexico in the conference tournament. There is a price to pay for playing a slew of weak opponents in succession to end the season. The Aztecs are a downright terrible perimeter shooting team (.266 on 3-pointers) and therefore will never be able to shoot themselves back into a game. If they get behind by double digits, they’re in big trouble. Of course you can never count out Steve Fisher’s team because the coach is well prepared with experience in this tournament. However, there’s nothing he can do about being overmatched by a superior team and if the Wolfpack bring it, they should win and cover with ease. NC State won't be awed by the NCAA tournament stage. Mark Gottfried can X-and-O with the best of them, C.J. Leslie is a future pro (maybe even a 2012 NBA draft early entrant), and this team has cut its teeth against Syracuse, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Texas and Stanford, and the always tough ACC while San Diego State was beating the Boise States and TCU’s of the world. This Wolfpack team could truly be a Cinderella story. Early in this event the Wolfpack are under the radar and that provides us a great opportunity to lay a small price before they get picked up on everyone’s scope. Play: N.C. State -2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Texas +121 over Cincinnati

Talent wise, give an edge to Texas. In terms of experience, give an edge to the Bearcats. What we really have here however, is an undervalued ’Horns squad against an overvalued ‘Cats team. The Longhorns barely sneaked into this event, as they needed a win over Iowa State to confirm their bid. When the chips were down with everything on the line, Texas responded with that win. That’s a growing process for this hugely talented but young club. It may not have come down to that had they closed out earlier games. Of their 13 losses, eight came by six points or less, thus, those 13 defeats on paper look a lot worse than they were. J`Covan Brown is likely going to be the best player on the floor and if this streak-shooter gets hot, it’ll be one and done for the Bearcats. If he’s off his game, Cinci could still lose because they’re a horrible shooting team and a dreadful free-throw shooting team. They Bearcats had many good wins down the stretch due their tenacity on defense and their ability to force turnovers. That does not hide their flaws of being a poor shooting and rebounding team and a club that is not capable of blowing out the Longhorns. For the most part, Cinci didn’t perform like a 6-seed while the Longhorns are the far more dangerous club. Play: Texas +121 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Florida/ Virginia Over 122: Virginia does not play a ton of games in the 120's, but in their last 3 games (during regulation) at least 122 points have been scored in each game. Virginia does come in averaging 63 ppg overall and 62.5 ppg away from home, but those numbers should increase a bit here as they will be facing a florida team that has really struggled with defense down the stretch as they have allowed 71 ppg away from home, 72.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 68.4 ppg in their last 10 games. Florida's offense did sputter down the stretch, but they have sill averaged 76.3 ppg overall and 70 ppg away from home, while in the SEC Tourney they were able to score 71 and 66 points vs two or the toughest defenses in the league in Kentucky and Alabama. Virginia does play great defense as they have allowed just 53.7 ppg, but down the stretch they did allow 63 ppg in their last 5 games and they have allowed 60 pg away from home, so this high scoring Florida team should be good for somewhere in the mid 60's, while i expect this Virginia team to put up about that as well. Also this should be a close game, which should mean FT's at the end of the game and both teams do hit 71+ % of their FT's on the year. Florida does not want a half court game and I expect them to speed it up a bit and get their points vs this tough defense, while Virginia should have a good time vs a Florida defense that has fallen apart of late. 130+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the OVER in a neutral game where the total is between 120 to 129.5, during the 2nd half of the season, in a game involving two teams that have outscored their opponents by 8+ ppg on the year. This play is 42-14 the last 5 seasons.

3 UNIT PLAY

Duke/ Lehigh Over 148: The Blue Devils are not as strong defensively as in years past as they are 220th in scoring defense (68.5 ppg) and 182nd in defensive FG% (43.3%) and today they will be facing a Lehigh team that has been very good at the offensive end of the floor. Lehigh comes in 28th in the nation in scoring at 76.2 ppg and they are are a solid 114th in shooting (44.9%), plus Lehigh is 3rd in the nation in FT shooting (77.6%). This team knows how to put points on the board, but they are also a very average defensive team as they have allowed 65.1 ppg on the year and now they get to face a high powered Duke offense. The Blue devils did struggle in the ACC tourney as tghey averaged just 59.5 ppg in the two games, but this is still a team that has averaged 77.6 ppg overall this year, including an average of 75.5 ppg in their last 8 games of the regular season. I expect the pace to be up tempo here and with both teams having the ability to put 75+ points on the board i will expect this one to hit at least 155.

2 UNIT PLAY

Georgetown -4 over Belmont: The Bruins are the sexy pick for a lot of folks and the are a very talented group that lost to Duke by 1 point earlier in the year, but thy are also a team that lost to Lipscomb, Miami (Ohio), and USC Upstate, plus they are just 0-2 vs the RPI Top 25. Belmont is 4th in the nation in scoring at 81.4 ppg, but Georgetown have been very solid at the defensive end this year as they have allowed just 59.2 ppg on 38.7% shooting and they should be able to hold this strong offensive club down. The Hoya's offensively have been a solid bunch as they have averaged 69.1 ppg on 46.35 shooting, which is 58th in the country and Belmont does not play great defense. The Hoyas played in the tough Big East this year and while they are a younger squad than Belmont they are still a more talented team than them. This team may have been very young at the start of the year, but they have grown up and will start what I feel will be a deep tournament run for them with an easy win here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Notre Dame -2.5 over Xavier: Xavier just hasn't been the same team they were at the start of the year after that brawl vs Cincinnati. Xavier does come in winners in 3 of their last 4 games, but since the brawl they have gon just 13-12 overall after an 8-0 start. Xavier did beat St Louis in the A-10 Tourney, but they really looked lethargic in beating Dayton by 1 point and in the loss to St Bonaventure. Xavier finished the regular season with a 10-6 mark in the mediocre Atlantic 10, while the Irish had a fine year in the Big East, going 13-5 in the regular season and while they did go just 2-3 down the stretch they are still the team that won 9 Big East games in a row and with the extra prep time Mike brey will have his team focused and ready to go here. Irish by 7+ here.


North Carolina -15.5 over Vermont: I have the Heels losing in the Elite 8, but I feel they have more than enough to take care of Vermont in this one. The Heels stumbled in the ACC tourney, but they still have blowout capabilities and would like to get off to a good start in the tourney today. I look for them to win by 20+ here.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Memphis +60-1 to win tournament

There's a wagering term used in boxing and it's called a throwaway bet. Simply put, it's just not worth the money to wager on one of the four top seeds because it just doesn't pay enough. With that said, there is almost always a team or two that surprises and makes it into the Final Four and the Memphis Tigers could be that team this season. They are way under the radar but make no mistake, they're so dangerous too. The Tigers rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage with star sophomore guard Will Barton having connected on 52.5 percent of his team-high 406 regular-season shot attempts. Power forward Tarik Black converted a school-record 68.2 percent of his attempts during the regular season and is a huge factor in Memphis' sometimes sketchy half-court offense. Memphis' efficiency numbers -- both offensively and defensively -- are impressive and its exceptional collection of midsized athletes can't keep a physical opponent off the backboards. The Tigers have been fattening up on a weak roster of C-USA teams. One wonders what will happen when they face a power conference squad in the Big Dance with the athletes to match them but that's the beautiful thing about this wager. Nobody really knows how good they are and while it's absolutely conceivable for them to get knocked out by the Billikens in the first game, it's also very possible that they survive the weekend and than this wager will really pick up steam. The price makes them the most appealing team in the field at long odds. Play: Memphis +6000 (Risking 0.2 units to win 12).

N.C. State -2½ over San Diego State Pinnacle

The Aztecs have been overachieving all season and their draw, N.C. State on the East Coast, is not favorable. SDSU finished the season with eight straight games against weak competition before losing by nine to New Mexico in the conference tournament. There is a price to pay for playing a slew of weak opponents in succession to end the season. The Aztecs are a downright terrible perimeter shooting team (.266 on 3-pointers) and therefore will never be able to shoot themselves back into a game. If they get behind by double digits, they’re in big trouble. Of course you can never count out Steve Fisher’s team because the coach is well prepared with experience in this tournament. However, there’s nothing he can do about being overmatched by a superior team and if the Wolfpack bring it, they should win and cover with ease. NC State won't be awed by the NCAA tournament stage. Mark Gottfried can X-and-O with the best of them, C.J. Leslie is a future pro (maybe even a 2012 NBA draft early entrant), and this team has cut its teeth against Syracuse, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Texas and Stanford, and the always tough ACC while San Diego State was beating the Boise States and TCU’s of the world. This Wolfpack team could truly be a Cinderella story. Early in this event the Wolfpack are under the radar and that provides us a great opportunity to lay a small price before they get picked up on everyone’s scope. Play: N.C. State -2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Texas +121 over Cincinnati

Talent wise, give an edge to Texas. In terms of experience, give an edge to the Bearcats. What we really have here however, is an undervalued ’Horns squad against an overvalued ‘Cats team. The Longhorns barely sneaked into this event, as they needed a win over Iowa State to confirm their bid. When the chips were down with everything on the line, Texas responded with that win. That’s a growing process for this hugely talented but young club. It may not have come down to that had they closed out earlier games. Of their 13 losses, eight came by six points or less, thus, those 13 defeats on paper look a lot worse than they were. J`Covan Brown is likely going to be the best player on the floor and if this streak-shooter gets hot, it’ll be one and done for the Bearcats. If he’s off his game, Cinci could still lose because they’re a horrible shooting team and a dreadful free-throw shooting team. They Bearcats had many good wins down the stretch due their tenacity on defense and their ability to force turnovers. That does not hide their flaws of being a poor shooting and rebounding team and a club that is not capable of blowing out the Longhorns. For the most part, Cinci didn’t perform like a 6-seed while the Longhorns are the far more dangerous club. Play: Texas +121 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo

841 Texas +2.5 @ 12:15p
837 NC State -3 @ 12:40p
830 Creighton +1.5 @ 1:40p

849 Virginia +4 @ 2:10p
840 Florida St. -6.5 @ 2:45p
836 Georgetown -4 @ 3:10p

834 Memphis -3 @ 6:50p
824 Duke -12 @ 7:15p
846 Michigan -5.5 @ 7:20p
853 Purdue +2 @ 7:25p

825 Xavier +2.5 @ 9:45p
844 Temple -3 @ 9:50p
852 Kansas -14 @ 9:55p

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock (1-2 yesterday)

5 Mem
4 NCSt
4 Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

A.Redd

Nc state
Alabama
Purdue
S.Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Mike Anthony
Lehigh vs. Duke (NCAAB) - 7:15 PM EST, Friday, March 16
Premium PickPick: Point Spread: -12.0/-110 Duke -- Friday TOP PLAY TOURNAMENT BLOWOUT


Handicapper: Mike Anthony
Alabama vs. Creighton (NCAAB) - 1:40 PM EST, Friday, March 16
Premium PickPick: Point Spread: -1.5/-110 Alabama -- TOP PLAY Oddsmaker MIstake Play



Handicapper: Mike Anthony
Ohio vs. Michigan (NCAAB) - 7:20 PM EST, Friday, March 16
Premium PickPick: Point Spread: -5.5/-110 Michigan -- regular play



Handicapper: Mike Anthony
Northwestern vs. Washington U (NCAAB) - 10:00 PM EST, Friday, March 16
Premium Pick Pick: Total: 147.5/-110 Over -- regular play