9-23-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 3:

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49.5)

Patriots’ focused defense vs. Ravens’ confused offense

New England pumped up its defense this offseason and so far it’s shown. The Patriots are ranked second in yards allowed and will be extra motivated following the loss to Arizona – which wasn’t the defense's fault. New England is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games coming off a loss.

Baltimore’s no-huddle offense was the talk of the offseason but when the going got tough, the Ravens would still lean on RB Ray Rice. That wasn’t the case versus the Eagles last week. Baltimore passed on six third-and-short and fourth-and-short situations, failing to pick up the first down every time. It finished 4 for 14 on third-down conversions.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+1, 46.5)

Texans’ anti-Peyton defense vs. Rusty Peyton Manning

Want to know why Houston is the solid defensive unit it is today? The Texans were custom made to stop Peyton Manning, who used to be the biggest thorn in their side when he was under center for the division rival Colts. The Texans are tops in defense through two weeks, collecting six sacks and three interceptions.

Manning’s disastrous first quarter versus the Falcons Monday night was the difference. Many believe the former MVP has lost a step following multiple neck surgeries, while Manning himself chalks up those three interceptions to poor decision making. Now, Manning stares down the one defense that knows him better than any in the league.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (+3.5, 47)

Jim Schwartz’s ego vs. Titans’ front office

The term “No hard feelings” doesn’t really apply to Lions head coach Jim Schwartz. The emotional sideline leader was once the Titans defensive coordinator under Jeff Fisher, but only after Fisher went to bat against some front office types that weren’t all that crazy about Schwartz. While he’ll never admit it, Schwartz is too big of an ego to let stuff like that slide.

Enter the Titans, who could be the worst team in the NFL right now. Tennessee’s defense is in shambles, its QB is hurting and its franchise player is putting the blame for his poor start on everyone but himself. If there ever was a chance to kick a team when they’re down, Week 3 is it.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+7, 43)

Niners’ revamped passing game vs. Vikings’ terrible Tampa-2

The Niners are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, thanks in part to their new-look down-field attack featuring weapons like Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. San Francisco has been relatively conservative given the potency in the pass game, sitting 25th in yards through the air, but Week 3’s matchup may be the best opportunity to kick the tires on that side of the playbook.

Minnesota’s Tampa-2 defense is ranked 12th against the pass, allowing an average of only 221.5 yards through the first two games. Those stats, however, we compiled against second-year QB Blaine Gabbert and rookie Andrew Luck, who exposed the Tampa-2 for big strikes last weekend. The Vikings secondary buckled with the clock ticking down, giving up a 30-yard TD to end the half and allowing Luck to move the chains for a game-winning field goal in the final 23 seconds.

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NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

Here’s a glance at some of the opening spreads for some of Week 3’s biggest games:

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 54.5)

The Saints have been fade bait since the Bounty Gate scandal broke in the offseason. New Orleans is 0-2 after embarrassing losses to Washington and Carolina, but books are confident it will right in the ship in Week 3.

“They’re definitely under-performing, but if there is a team that is going to break out this week, it’s the Saints,” says Korner. “This is a game between two 0-2 teams, but it is more of a must-win for the Saints.”

The Sports Club sent out a suggested line of New Orleans -11.5 but most books opened low, with the Saints as 9-point favorites. Korner says if he were a book, he’d much rather be cheering for New Orleans to win than a Chiefs team that looks to be in total disarray.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4, 44)

Only five teams are undefeated heading into the Monday nighter, and this is a battle between two of them. Arizona, surprisingly is among those 2-0 starts and is coming off a huge road win over the New England Patriots in Week 2.

“I actually came with Arizona as the favorite,” says Korner. “As a handicapper, this game would have to raise eyebrows. Philadelphia, even though they’re 2-0, haven’t looked good. Arizona, well, you can’t look any better than coming off a win over the Patriots.”

“I think this should be closer to a pick. You don’t want to go much higher than Eagles -4,” he adds. “All the sharp money is going to be on the home underdog.”

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48.5)

This rematch of the AFC Championship Game has the hard number of Ravens -3 and books should see two-way action on this game. Korner says the injury to Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez won’t have an impact on the spread because Tom Brady has so many other weapons in the passing game.

“I don’t think there is going to be a big rush of New England money,” he says. “We’ll get to see the guts of the Patriots, coming off that loss to Arizona.”

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SPORTS WAGERS - NFL

BALTIMORE -3 +110 over New England
The talk this week is the unthinkable happening in the Patriots home-loss to Arizona as a 13½-point choice. This is a team that almost always bounces back from such defeats but we’re not so sure they have it in them this season. You might be a bit surprised to learn that the Ravens have lost only once in the last two years at home and with no defeats occurring last season.
Tom Brady passed for a combined 950 yards and seven TD’s in the team’s first two games a season ago. This year, he’s passed for half that with just three scores. The Pats defense really hasn’t been tested with games against Tennessee and Arizona. They will be tested here and will likely be exposed as ordinary. We’ll find out this week if the Patriots are more fluff than stuff. This host won’t be short of motivation either, as the Ravens seek to avenge last year’s dramatic playoff loss to these foes in a game they were clearly the better team in. Pats rarely a dog but this line could end up being flattering.

JACKSONVILLE +3 +101 over Indianapolis
It’s one thing to be a home underdog to the second-rate Vikings, especially when it’s your first chance to showcase your franchise quarterback of the future. It’s a whole other matter for Andrew Luck and the Colts to be favored against this division rival. The Colts were run over by the Vikings offensive line last week and only miscues prevented the Vikes from victory. Let’s also not ignore that Indy could not hold a late 20-6 lead. The victory looks nice on paper but it was anything but.
At this point in time, the Colts have more promise but the Jaguars have to be considered the better team. This one figures to stay tight as both teams will try to establish a superior run game. Should that happen, we like our chances with MJD over the limited skills of Donald Brown. Colts aren’t ready to be lined up in this price range just yet and last week’s misleading win has them overvalued here. Jags outright but with money and points being offered, we’ll gladly accept.

OAKLAND +4 -105 over Pittsburgh
Are the Steelers morphing into the Seahawks? Pittsburgh has been near unstoppable at home (8-1 past 9) but road games have produced a miserable 2-9 mark vs. the spread recently. This popular betting team is usually overpriced and we find another example of that here.
The Raiders can’t seem to get it right but the winless start is not quite as bad as it seems. Carson Palmer threw for nearly 400 yards in a losing cause to Miami last week. RB Darren McFadden is a threat whenever he touches the pigskin. Oakland’s defensive line is a big and balanced unit that is capable of harassing Ben Roethlisberger throughout the afternoon. Pittsburgh’s infirmary remains full. Expect a battle here in a game the Raiders can not only cover but can win outright.

CLEVELAND +124 over Buffalo
The Bills have been road kill for a while now. Buffalo hasn’t won an away game since its opener last year in Kansas City. Since then, they’ve lost eight straight road contests, covering just once. In their past six road trips, the Bills have been outscored 241-98. In addition, this is only the second time in three years that the Bills are road chalk. Most bettors remember last week. To us, a beat down on K.C. is barely notable but getting whacked by a Jets offense in Week One is. The Bills, with their pedestrian and predictable offense and suspect defense do not warrant this billing.
The Browns might be 0-2 but they’ve shown promise in both defeats. Cleveland’s defense has yet to allow a ground touchdown this season after facing two very capable offenses in Philly and Cinci. RB Trent Richardson, if he’s not already, is a stud in waiting and Buffalo’s defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed. The Brownies play hard. They’re certainly on the verge of a win and there’s little reason to think that they can’t get it here. Keep the points, we're going for the straight up win and some ching ching in our pockets.

DENVER +111 over Houston
After a home opener thrashing of the Dolphins and then laying a beating on the punchless Jaguars, the Texans must now step into the deep end. In many cases that can be as startling as playing in the high altitude of the Rocky Mountains.
The Broncos, and particularly QB Peyton Manning, were humiliated in a nationally televised Monday nighter against the Falcons. That showing likely reduced the price for this one, allowing us to take a comfortable position on the undervalued host. Peyton Manning has been a Texans killer for years. He has a talented cast surrounding him here in Denver. Unlike most pro athletes that spend their days on Twitter and playing video games, Peyton Manning will spend 12 hours a day in the film room going over Monday’s miscues, which were an anomaly that get corrected on this day.

Survivor Pick – Week 3
CHICAGO over St. Louis
Hopefully, you heeded our advice last week and avoided the Patriots, who went down as a 14-pt choice and took approximately 50% of all survivor poolies with them. We’re mentioning that not as an ‘I told you so’ but because of our philosophy of not choosing the most obvious team each week. If you advance, it is with the masses. If you choose another and the big team goes down, you’re way ahead of the game.
This week, we have a number of options to choose from. The Saints, Cowboys and 49ers are likely to get the majority of the play but we’re suggesting that one of those three teams could lose. One of our Survivor rules is to never play a road team so that rules out the 49ers.
The Bears are coming off an embarrassing prime time loss at Green Bay in a game they never stood a chance in. Last season we saw a very similar situation for Chicago when they were sacked nine times in a Monday Night featured game. The very next week they were a slim 1-point choice in Minnesota. The result was a 39-10 clobbering of the Vikes. This week, the Bears catch the Rams arriving off of two solid games. St. Louis nearly took down the Lions in Detroit in its opener and rallied last week to defeat the ‘Skins. Those two efforts have them overvalued here, while the Bears effort from a week ago has them undervalued. No doubt the Rams are improved and playing with more confidence under Jeff Fisher. However, they’re still a below average team that is likely to get whacked a few times this season. After consecutive intense games, playing at a tough Soldier Field, against a team that was embarrassed and is on 10 days rest, the Rams are really up against it this week. No upset here.

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Jets

3* Houst, Ariz, Detr

2* San Fran, Cincy, NO, GB

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Colin Cowherds

Blazing 5

Last week won all NFL bets against the number.

Arizona Cardinals = +3
Dallas Cowboys = -8
Minnesota Vikings = +7
Cincinnati Bengals = +3
New York Jets = -2.5 (His favorite bet of the 5)

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DCI NFL

Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS Vary Units: 11-0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-6 (.000)

Season
Straight Up: 19-12 (.613)
ATS: 16-16 (.500)
ATS Vary Units: 82-129 (.389)
Over/Under: 18-13 (.581)
Over/Under Vary Units: 75-74 (.503)

Sunday, September 23, 2012
CHICAGO 26, St. Louis 14
CLEVELAND 22, Buffalo 18
DALLAS 29, Tampa Bay 20
MIAMI 24, N.Y. Jets 20
San Francisco 31, MINNESOTA 16
NEW ORLEANS 31, Kansas City 16
Cincinnati 25, WASHINGTON 24
Detroit 29, TENNESSEE 23
INDIANAPOLIS 21, Jacksonville 18
ARIZONA 20, Philadelphia 19
SAN DIEGO 31, Atlanta 22
Houston 22, DENVER 19
Pittsburgh 22, OAKLAND 17
BALTIMORE 24, New England 22

Monday, September 24, 2012
Green Bay 25, SEATTLE 23

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Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAY:

· Houston -1 1/2 Denver


SINGLE PLAYS:

New Orleans -9 Kansas City
Cincy +3 Washington
Chicago -7 1/2 St. Louis
Philly--Arizona Under 44
Detroit-Tenn Over 46 1/2

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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 4-6 –7.8%

401 3% ST LOUIS +7
412 3% MIAMI +1.5

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Preferred Picks/Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati (GOM)

Tennessee
San Diego

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GOLDSHEET

KEY RELEASES

ST. LOUIS by 2 over Chicago
HOUSTON by 11 over Denver
OVER THE TOTAL in the Cincinnati-Washington game

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CKO

10 DETROIT over *Tennessee
Late Score Forecast: DETROIT 31 - *Tennessee 17

Home dogs were 5-1 in Week Two action. However, Tennessee QB Jake Locker (0-2 SU and vs. the spread as a starter, with losses by 21 & 28) has quite a ways to go before he can trade points with the top QBs of the league, such as Matt Stafford. While Locker’s athletic ability is impressive, his timing and accuracy currently leave a lot to be desired. Worse yet, his OL isn’t offering much help and has been unable to spring RB Chris Johnson (only 21 YR in 2012!). Matthew Stafford and the versatile Detroit offense are way ahead, and Calvin Johnson is looking for a big day after having to deal with the 49ers last week. This is a big game for Lion HC Jim Schwartz and several Detroit defenders facing their old team. Suh & Company keep Jake on the run all day.

NINE-RATED GAMES:
NEW YORK JETS (-21⁄2) at Miami— Can’t resist small wager on Ryan defense vs. rookie QB and on Tony Sparano vs. his old team, even though N.Y. hurting somewhat.

TOTALS:
UNDER (48) in the New England-Baltimore Game—Familiarity and ferocity help suppress score; Pats’ OL leakage slowing their spread attac

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Marco D'Angelo Memphis Radio Friday Morning

NFL
Dallas - 8 1/2
Houston +1 1/2
New England +3
Jets -2 1/2

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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23 Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (9/19)

Game 401-402: St. Louis at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.082; Chicago 136.005 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 11; 41 Vegas Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Tampa Bay at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.692; Dallas 137.533 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 11; 43 Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

Game 405-406: San Francisco at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.086; Minnesota 129.681 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 130.154; Tennessee 132.776 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Cincinnati at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.845; Washington 130.226 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46 Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.543; Miami 126.404 Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3; 43 Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 40 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Kansas City at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.585; New Orleans 141.744 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 19; 49 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Buffalo at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.467; Cleveland 131.651 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 42 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 417-418: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.230; Indianapolis 126.282 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 44 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

Game 419-420: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.416; Arizona 135.310 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 47 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 43 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Atlanta at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.442; San Diego 136.176 Dunkel Line: Even; 45 Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 423-424: Houston at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.005; Denver 135.670 Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Pittsburgh at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.289; Oakland 127.414 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 40 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 44 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Under

Game 427-428: New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.057; Baltimore 138.997 Dunkel Line: New England by 3; 46 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Under

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Chiefs at Saints: What bettors need to know

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53)

Whether it's the loss of head coach Sean Payton, a hangover from the ongoing bounty investigation or just an atrocious defense, the 0-2 New Orleans Saints host the Kansas City Chiefs desperate for their first win of the season. Kansas City seems to be just the right remedy. While New Orleans has been upset by the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers, the Chiefs haven't even been competitive in losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills.

Playing from behind, both the Saints' and the Chiefs' offenses have put up big numbers in their first two games, but they are tied for last in the NFL in scoring defense, having allowed 75 points apiece on the season. Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for 325 yards last week in rebounding from Week 1 when he completed just 46 percent of his passes.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Saints -9, O/U 53.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (0-2): Oddly enough, led by Matt Cassel, the Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games against the NFC. Cassel is 10-5 against NFC teams and Jamaal Charles has also had good success rushing for an average of over seven yards a carry against out-of-conference foes. But Kansas City has struggled offensively to start the season once again, raising questions about Romeo Crennel’s credibility as a head coach. Charles (probable) is off to a dreadful start with just 90 yards on the ground in his first two outings and he injured his surgically repaired left knee last week. Tight end Kevin Boss is questionable with a head injury.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-2): Brees has thrown for an NFL-record 300 yards in nine straight games. New Orleans, however, has lost the last three of them. The Saints appear distracted by the aftermath of the NFL's investigation into the team’s alleged bounty system that cost Payton his job for the season. The defense is still reeling from the loss of several key members, including linebacker Jonathan Vilma, and has surrendered nearly 400 yards rushing in their first two games. New Orleans couldn't contain the athletic Cam Newton in last week's loss or rookie Robert Griffin III in the opener. Newton ran for a career-high 71 yards. It could have more success against the far less-mobile Cassel.

TRENDS:
* Over is 7-0 in Saints’ last seven games overall.
* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.
* Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six September games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints are 0-2 for the first time since 2007.

2. The Saints won the last meeting 30-20 back in 2008.

3. Kansas City began last season 0-3.