9-23-12

[poopoo333]

Today's MLB Picks

Texas at Seattle

The Mariners look to build on their 6-1 record in Jason Vargas' last 7 starts against AL West teams. Seattle is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Miami at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 14.412; NY Mets (Young) 14.831 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Harang) 13.841; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.970 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.856; Washington (Wang) 15.516 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 13.322; Houston (Lyles) 14.887 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.087; Cubs (Germano) 14.138 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); N/A

Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.190; Colorado (Francis) 14.653 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 963-964: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.098; San Francisco (Petit) 17.200 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 16.439; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.707 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Over

Game 967-968: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.782; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.205 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+135); Under

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 13.468; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.774 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.560; Boston (Doubront) 15.055 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 973-974: Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Jenkins) 13.910; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.003 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-220); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-220); Under

Game 975-976: Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.791; Kansas City (Odorizzi) 14.397 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Over

Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.223; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.459 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Underr

Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Dempster) 14.996; Seattle (Vargas) 15.895 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Over

Game 981-982: Minnesota at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Walters) 14.609; Detroit (Smyly) 15.732 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

[poopoo333]

Hondo

The Fish failed to scale the odds against Bill Maher’s Mets yesterday, but ND covered the numeral against Michigan last night so Hondo’s debt held steady at 1,535 staubachs.

Today, Mr. Aitch will take a break from his sparkling work in the diamond district and get down and dirty with his NFL Best Bets -- 10 units apiece on the Jets, Chargers and Ravens.

[poopoo333]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 914-671 (57 %) over the last 4 years PLUS !

Free play Sun: Ariz Cards + 4

[poopoo333]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Falcons +3

[poopoo333]

Underground Sports Connection

Underground Original - Minnesota Vikings

Reece Roberts - Milwaukee Brewers

[poopoo333]

Gold Sheet LTS

SOLID GOLD ALERT 2* N.Orleans
TOP CHOICE 1 1/2* Arizona
1* SanFran
1* Pitt
1* Seattle

[poopoo333]

Cappers Access

Bears -7
Titans +4
Cardinals +3
Ravens -2

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Detroit at Tennessee (Sunday 9/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tennessee +3.5 (-105)

The Detroit Lions won 10 games a year ago and made the playoffs. All is good right? Let's look a bit deeper. This team started out 5-0 in 2011 and looked to really be poised to have one of those special seasons, but they went just 5-7 from that point. The revealing part is that among their 10 wins, not one team they beat made the playoffs. When they got in the playoffs they promptly exited with a 17-point loss. So while many feel this team will get even better, the jury is more than out. They barely got by St. Louis at home 27-23 then lost once again to a good team at San Francisco. Tennessee has been blown out by a pair of really good teams in San Diego and New England, so most see Detroit as the third good team and another blowout. Well Detroit isn't there yet, and I look for Tennessee to come up big at home staring an 0-3 start in the face. They will have some extra motivation to take down Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz who was their defensive coordinator for eight seasons before taking the Detroit job. The Lions are still fighting to find their way on the road where they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six. The Titans have come up big after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game at 19-7 ATS in their last 26. Play on Tennessee.

[Mr. IWS]

Docs Sports
5 Unit Play. (#107/#411) Take New York Jets -2.5 over Miami Dolphins
(Sunday, 9/23, 1 pm CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend

New York

The Jets come into this game at 1-1 on the season after beating the Buffalo Bills at home and then getting pounding by the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The Jets should get help on defense with Darrelle Revis back in the lineup after he sat out last week with a concussion. The road team has been the play in this matchup recently, covering four of the last five games in this series. The Jets have a more experienced quarterback in Mark Sanchez and we expect their defense to put pressure on rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Miami

The Dolphins are coming off an impressive performance in their home opener after getting blown out in Week 1 at Houston. In that game, Miami failed to score an offensive touchdown and it would not surprise me if that was the case today as well. The fact remains that Miami does not have many playmakers on offense with the exception of Reggie Bush. Their wide receivers are terrible and expect the Jets to put pressure on them for 60 minutes. Miami is just 22-49 ATS (1 push) in their last 72 home games.

Final Comment

This is a divisional game so you can bet both teams are very familiar with one another. Miami does not have a home field advantage whatsoever, so expect the Jets to come in a control tempo for 60 minutes. This is an important game for the Jets and a must-win if they have visions of making the playoffs this season. Miami is still in full rebuild mode and is just trying to improve since they have been inept for over a decade.

New York by 13

4 Unit Play. (#113/#407) Take Detroit Lions -3.5 over Tennessee Titans
(Sunday, 9/23, 1 pm Fox)

Detroit

The Lions have yet to get going this season and are lucky to have won one of their first two games. Expect things to get back on track Sunday in Nashville, as the Titans do not have the weapons to threaten this suspect Lions defense. Detroit has one of the best passing games in the league with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. The Lions are 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.

Tennessee

The Titans have been one of the worst teams in the league to start 2012. They have been blown out twice in two games, giving up an average of 36 points per game defensively. RB Chris Johnson has looked terrible thus far and he is starting to call out his offensive lineman. Tennessee has covered just one of their last five home games.

Final Comment

Expect the Titans to play better than they have in their first two games of the season, but the fact remains that they just do not have much talent. The Lions need this victory, as they do not want to drop below the .500 mark. Expect them to put forth an offensive display that Tennessee will have no answer for. The Titans just have too many question marks and are in for a long season.

Detroit by 13

3 Unit Play. (#127/#429) Take Green Bay Packers -3 over Seattle Seahawks
(Monday, 9/24, 8:45 pm ESPN)

Green Bay

The Packers should enter this game healthy, as they have a mini bye since they have not played a game since Sept. 13. Green Bay got back on track last week, pounding the Bears, and they now sit atop the division in a four-way tie. QB Aaron Rogers will not be intimidated by playing in Seattle since his numbers were better on the road last season than they were at home. Green Bay has covered 23 of their last 33 games.

Seattle

The Seahawks have a pair of quarterbacks with Wisconsin ties in Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn. They could be 2-0 on the season, but like the Packers they are just 1-1. I just do not believe that the Seahawks have the weapons to threaten this suspect Packer defense and, thus, they will not be able to keep pace with the high-scoring offense of Aaron Rogers and company. The Hawks have not handled prosperity well, going 9-21 ATS (1 push) in their last 31 games following a victory in their previous game.

Final Comment

This is a game that features two teams that have visions of making the playoffs come January. That being said, the Seahawks are not on the same level as the Packers and this is an important game for Green Bay as they do not want to drop to 1-2 on the season. Someway, somehow, Green Bay will get the job done, as this is a game they need more than Seattle.

Green Bay by 8

Strong Opinion Plays
#82/#308 Take ULM Warhawks +7.5 over Baylor Bears (Friday 8 pm ESPN)
#72/#312 Take Under 57 in Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles (Saturday 8 pm ABC)
#41/#347 Take Arizona Wildcats +23.5 over Oregon Ducks (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer
NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

2 Unit Play. #413 Take Over 53 Kansas City at New Orleans (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 23)
Defense will be nowhere in this game as the Chiefs and Saints defenses are giving up an average of 37.5ppg. Yes this is correct both teams have given up 75 points in 2-games! New Orleans wins this game and I see them throwing up over 40 points and yes this game flies over Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is 5-1 O/U in the month of September and the Saints are a perfect 7-0 O/U in their last 7 home games.

6 Unit Play. #418 Take Indianapolis -3 over Jacksonville (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 23)
(AFC Division Game of the Month) Andrew Luck got his first 'W' of his young NFL career and Jacksonville is 1 of 6 NFL teams still looking for a winner. Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis I see the Jaguars still winless and the Colts with their new rookie QB get their 2nd victory of the season. Andrew Luck has been impressive so far for the Colts and the more games he plays the more comfortable he will get in the pocket. Jacksonville could be one of the worse teams in the league and the Jags will struggle again on the road. This game also has a revenge factor attached to it as last year Jacksonville swept the 2-game series winning 19-13 in Indianapolis and by double-digits in Jacksonville. Revenge will be sweat and I see the Colts returning the favor and win this game by a touchdown or more. Sorry Jacksonville but again you are winless heading into Week #4! The favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS and the Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against AFC teams.

3 Unit Play. #422 Take San Diego -3 over Atlanta (4:05p.m., Sunday, Sept 23)
San Diego is coming off a huge home win over the Broncos on Monday night but this week the Falcons have a short week and have to travel to Southern California. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers had an outstanding game against the Titans and if the Falcons defense can get to Rivers and put pressure on him we could see another great throwing game from San Diego. San Diego wins this game in a hard fought game and San Diego takes control of this game in the 2nd half and wins this game by 6-points. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS when playing a team with a losing record and San Diego is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing on grass. This outside game will also slow down the Falcons offense!

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Point Sports
5-Unit Play. Take #424 Denver (+2) over Houston (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
Note: this is our NFL Game of the Week.

I love Denver in this spot. I have had a solid read on this club over the first two weeks of the season as we won with the Broncos in Week 1 versus Pittsburgh and we took Atlanta last week.

The Broncos are coming home after a tough Monday Night loss in which they almost came all the way back to win on the road after being down 20-0. Peyton Manning struggled mightily in the Monday Night contest and yet they still almost beat one of the best teams in the NFC, Atlanta, on the road. Manning looked much better in front of his home crowd and I see him bouncing back in a big way this Sunday. Houston has looked solid, but they have played two teams that are considerably below Denver's talent level in Miami and Jacksonville. This Denver squad can match Houston's output on both sides of the football and playing in front of their home fans should do just enough for the Broncos to win this battle outright. Many of the trends favor the Texans here but if you take a closer look they aren't the dominant road team that people think they are. When Houston played difficult teams on the road they didn't find much success. They lost at Baltimore twice, they lost at New Orleans, and barely won at Cincinnati (20-19). This Denver team is similar to last season's Baltimore team and they should find the same success versus the Texans that the Ravens did. Take the home dog in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 53 Kansas City at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

New Orleans bounces back in a big way this weekend. With turmoil and poor play surrounding this team, nothing helps more than a visit from a Kansas City Chiefs team that just won't be able to keep pace. With that being said, by keep pace I mean the Chiefs will struggle to stay within a touchdown. I am more focused on both teams hitting for close to 30 points however. New Orleans should easily hit paydirt for 35+ points while Kansas City should score at least three touchdowns. The Chiefs have given up 40 and 35 points to the Bills and Falcons while the Saints have given up 35 and 40 to the Panthers and the Redskins. Drew Brees and company should have little difficulty moving the ball versus the Chiefs defense and vice versa when the Chiefs have the ball. The 'over' is 4-1 in the Chiefs last five games on field turf and 5-0 in the last five Saints games on the fast stuff. New Orleans is also 6-0 versus the total in their last six games versus teams with losing records, and 7-0 in the Saints last seven games overall.

3-Unit Play. Take #427 New England (+3) over Baltimore (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

I was one of the many that were burned by New England last weekend, but I am not ready to jump ship just yet. I think this Patriots team jumps right back on to everyone's radar by beating the Ravens in Baltimore Sunday Night. Baltimore is one of the most difficult places to play in the entire NFL, but Brady and the Pats are fortunate with this line as the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Pats are a great team to back following a loss. Even though Belichick is an egotistical maniac he gets his teams ready to play, especially following a loss, as the Pats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after losing their previous contest. New England is 50-24-3 ATS in their last 77 road games and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games versus the AFC. I was not all that impressed with Baltimore in Week 1 when the destroyed Cincinnati. Regardless of the final score the Bengals were moving the ball at will for half of that game. After a few consecutive possessions in which the Bengals turned the ball over it became a blow out. The Pats will make the necessary adjustments following their loss last week and the will win this game outright.

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe
Sunday September 23rd 2012-

6 Unit Play Take #404 Dallas -7.5 over Tampa Bay (1:00pm est):

One big mistakes NFL handicappers make this time of the year is getting way too excited over what they seen in the first two weeks of the season, especially with a team that was bad last year and hasn't made enough major changes to their roster. We are seeing a prime example of that here with the Tampa Bay Bucs. Sure this team is playing inspired football under their new head coach as that is expected from all teams at the start with a new haead man running the show but this team still lacks badly in the talent department. The Bucs come into Dallas to play a very upset Dallas Cowboys team here in this one.

The Cowboys may have looked as good as any team in the NFL in their week one road win at New York over the defending Super Bowl champions Giants. With that win the Cowboys proved they are a team to be reckoned with this season in the NFL as they looked to have plugged some big holes this team had last season. They were then asked to go back on the road last week and to play what was a desperate 0-1 Seattle team and were soundly beat in that one. This is the Cowboys home opener here and despite having played their first two games on the road this season, they own the biggest yards per play differential in the NFL right now.


Take Dallas here.


4 Unit Play Take #424 Denver +2 over Houston (4:25pm est):

The Houston Texans hype here early in the season rivals only the hype the San Francisco 49ers are getting right now at this time. Before anyone starts printing Super Bowl t-shirts they may want to look at the schedule the Texans have played thus far. Houston opened up at home and against a rookie quarterback as they hammered the Miami Dolphins by a 30-10 score. They then went on the road last week and played another one of the "awful's" (the lowest tier of teams in the NFL). No doubt the Texans have done what they were suppose to have so far this year but let's not get too excited considering the fact these wins came against what are the also-rans of the NFL.

On the other side of the coin we have the Denver Broncos here in this one. The Broncos played a solid game in week one beating a very strong Pittsburgh Steelers team. They got off to a horrendous start against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night football, only to come fighting back and lose by just six points. If not for all the turnover's (minus four) in the game, the Broncos may have pulled off a big upset at one of the toughest places to win in all of the NFL. This is still a very good football team and in no way should be an underdog here in this game.

Play Denver here.

3 Unit Play Take #422 San Diego -3 over Atlanta (4:05pm est):

Short week off a Monday night showing and now the Flacons are being asked to travel acorss country here for this one. Not the easiest of spot for a team that may in a little bit of a downer spot also after what was an emotional Monday night win. The Falcons can't be ripped for what was a nice win at home against a decent Denver team but all things considered that game was pretty much handed to them on a silver platter by the Broncos. Combine this victory with their week one win over what was now looks like a very bad football team (Kansas City) and you have to wonder if all the Falcons hype is legit right now.

The San Diego Chargers are usually the team with the overrated label being placed on them but that isn't the case these days as for the first time in years the Chargers look to be on the other side of the talk and may actually be undervalued right now. Quietly this team is 6-1 against the spread their last seven games.

Usually every NFL team has usually a clunker or two in them during the season and we may see that here from a Falcons team who is in a terrible spot. Take San Diego here in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo
SUNDAY NFL PREDICTIONS

3.5-Unit Play. Take #407 Detroit (-3.5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

2-Unit Play. Take #424 Denver (+2) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

2-Unit Play. Take #411 N.Y. Jets (-2.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

2-Unit Play. Take #421 Atlanta (+3) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #409 Cincinnati (+3.5) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #417 Jacksonville (+3) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #427 New England (+3) over Baltimore (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

This Week's Totals:

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 42.5 Philadelphia at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.0 Pittsburgh at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #416 Cleveland (+10) over Buffalo (1 p.m.) AND Take #420 Arizona (+10.5) over Philadelphia (4 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #424 Denver (+9) over Houston (4 p.m.) AND Take #421 Atlanta (+10) over San Diego (4 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #417 Jacksonville (+3) over Indianapolis (1 p.m.) AND Take #414 New Orleans (-2) over Kansas City (1 p.m.)

MONDAY NFL PREDICTIONS

1.5-Unit Play. Take #429 Green Bay (-3) over Seattle (8:30 p.m., Monday, Sept. 24)

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.5 Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m., Monday, Sept. 24)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #422. Take San Diego Chargers -3 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).

4-Unit Play. #420. Take Under 42.5 Philadelphia vs. Arizona (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).

4-Unit Play. #495. Take Toronto +4 over Montreal (Sunday @ 1:05pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Allen Eastman

2.5-Unit Play. Take #401 St. Louis (+7.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

The Bears have a lot of things going on in the locker room right now. Players are not happy with quarterback Jay Cutler and this season of promise could be unraveling early in the year. St. Louis is 2-0 ATS and has played well. They should have beaten Detroit on the road in the opener and I think that they will go toe-to-toe with the Bears. Chicago is without Matt Forte and last year the offense was not the same without him. The Bears are coming off a game against rival Green Bay and next week they have a trip to Dallas on Monday Night Football. I don't think that they are focused on this game here against St. Louis. I like the Rams to make this one very interesting.

5-Unit Play. Take #407 Detroit (-3.5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

The Lions lost badly to San Francisco last week. I think that they bounce back with a win here. Jake Locker is banged up but will play. He has really struggled early in the year and he is not as good as Matt Stafford. That Lions offense was shut down by the Niners last week but I don't think that will be the case here. The Titans have given up over 30 points in each of their first two games and Detroit is one of the best offenses that they will face all season. The books moved this one off of -3.0 and you know that they don't want to come off that key number. That tells me some big money has come in on the Lions.

7-Unit Play. Take #422 San Diego (-3) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

This is my NFL Game of the Month and from my NFL 411 System

I really like this Chargers team. This team is 2-0 and they looked great last week in a blowout winner over Tennessee for my Game of the week win. Atlanta is not in a good situation. They won on Monday Night Football but now they have to travel across the country and play on a short week of rest. This Falcons team also has to deal with the distraction of running back Michael Turner. The former Charger got a DUI earlier this week after the MNF game. Turner has not been playing well and now this. That will leave the team thin at running back. I don't think they can win a shootout with the Chargers. San Diego is a very motivated team. Everyone from the coach to the general manager to a lot of the veteran players know that they need to have a great season or there will be a lot of changes. They are rested and at home and they have a really big advantage by playing this tired, distracted Atlanta club off a win. All of these are reasons I like. But the numbers in the 411 System picked San Diego out even before the Turner situation. I will follow the system and look for a big winner in this game.

4-Unit Play. Take #423 Houston (-1.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

This play is from my NFL 411 System

This Houston team is one of the best in the NFL. This team has not even played its best game yet and has two blowout victories. Defensively this team is in the Top 5 in the NFL. I think they have a better defense than the Atlanta group that really confused and frustrated Peyton Manning. Manning still has a lot of rust from missing a full season and then changing teams. Denver did not look good on Monday Night Football. Now this team has to travel home and turn around on a short week against one of the AFC's favorites. Houston was originally installed as a two-point underdog. But the sharps pounded them before the line was made available to the public. When it came out it came out with the Texans favored. That is a big swing. This team is 12-2 ATS on grass and 12-3 ATS in conference games. Denver is just 15-34-2 ATS at home and they do not have as strong of a home field edge as people think. The Broncos are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on Sunday following a MNF game. Lay the points.

2-Unit Play. Take #427 New England (+3) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

Too many people are writing this Patriots team off. They lost last week. But Bill Belichick is at his best when he is coming off a loss. New England is 34-16-1 ATS after losing a game. They are 50-24-3 ATS in their last 77 road games and I think that this team will be very focused. They do not want to fall to 1-2. I just don't think that you can go wrong taking Tom Brady and the points. I will take them.

3-Unit Play. Take #418 Indianapolis (-3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)

The Colts beat Minnesota last week in a very similar situation. They were two-point underdogs so the books have adjusted this one five full points. That sounds right to me. Andrew Luck looked good in that game and the kid has a lot of confidence. The Colts have revenge after being swept by the Jaguars last week. And Jacksonville has a lot less confidence in its quarterback after another terrible game by Blaine Gabbert last week. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Colts are now 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Lets get lucky with Luck!