9-23-12

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Patriots at Ravens: What bettors need to know

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 49.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have some bad memories of the last time they faced the New England Patriots - a last-second loss in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens will get home field advantage in Sunday night’s rematch and have the more confident kicker this time around. The Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski missed badly on a 42-yarder in the final seconds last weekend, dooming the team to a rare home loss. Billy Cundiff, who missed a last-second 32-yard attempt in the title game last January, has been replaced by rookie Justin Tucker, who is 6-for-6 so far. Both teams looked strong in Week 1 but will be trying to avoid dipping below .500 after disappointing showings in Week 2.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Ravens -1.5, O/U 49.5. Most sportsbooks opened the Ravens as -3 favorites, but that line has since been bet down to -1.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s and clear skies at M&T Bank Stadium. Wind won’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-1): The record-setting offense from past years did not show up against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, with Tom Brady not throwing a touchdown pass until late in the fourth quarter. That unit could be in trouble again on Sunday without tight end Aaron Hernandez, who suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals and will miss 4-to-6 weeks. New England signed free agent Kellen Winslow and brought back wide receiver Deion Branch during the week. Wes Welker, who led the NFL in receptions last season and has been one of the most prolific receivers in the game since joining the Patriots, was replaced in the starting lineup by Julian Edelman last week as new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels continues to tinker with the offense. The bright spot has been a much-improved defense, especially rookie DE Chandler Jones.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (1-1): Baltimore will catch a break without Hernandez on the field but will still have to account for Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens had trouble containing Philadelphia Eagles tight end Brent Celek in a 24-23 loss last Sunday. Baltimore’s defense is under the direction of new coordinator Dean Pees, who spent the previous few seasons with the Patriots, and is ranked just 27th through the first two weeks. The offense looked strong enough to overcome those deficiencies in the Week 1 thrashing of Cincinnati, but quarterback Joe Flacco was just 22 of 42 against the Eagles and the Ravens converted only 4 of 14 third downs. Flacco actually outperformed Tom Brady in last January’s meeting but was let down when his sure touchdown pass was knocked out of the hands of Lee Evans right before Cundiff’s missed kick.

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Ravens’ last six September games.
* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots’ last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Baltimore S Bernard Pollard, who knocked out Brady for the 2008 eason with a low hit in the opening weekend and was responsible for Gronkowski’s ankle injury in last season’s meeting, is questionable for Sunday with a rib contusion.

2. Patriots rookie Jones will be playing for the first time against his brother, Ravens DE Arthur Jones.

3. New England is 7-1 against Baltimore, including the playoffs.

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 3

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 3's action.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 46.5)

Cowboys QB Tony Romo loves playing against the Bucs. Romo has passer ratings of 148.9, 140.6 and 133.9 in three career games against Tampa Bay with 11 TD passes. The Bucs defense was shredded by Eli Manning last week, giving up 512 yards through the air. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-9, 43.5)

Bears QB Jay Cutler was sacked seven times against Green Bay last week, causing him to lash out at left tackle J’Marcus Webb. To make matters worse, Cutler may not have RB Matt Forte (ankle) at his disposal on Sunday. Three-time Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson (groin) is “day-to-day,” according to Rams coach Jeff Fisher and will be a game-time decision. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (6.5, 43)

San Francisco effectively shut down 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, then Matthew Stafford and the high-powered Lions in Week 2. The Niners can go 3-0 to begin a season or the first time since 1998 if they can find a way to contain RB Adrian Peterson, who has failed to reach the 100-yard plateau in each of his last seven games, one shy of a career high. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (3.5, 47)

The Titans have been outscored 72-23 in dropping their first two games. RB Chris Johnson, who rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2009 has only 21 yards on 19 carries. The Lions could get a boost at RB on Sunday with the return of Mikel Leshoure. The 2011 second-round draft pick was suspended for the first two games of the season after violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. The over is 3-0-1 in Detroit’s last four games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3, 48.5)

Washington QB Robert Griffin III has impressed in his two games, throwing for 526 yards and picking up five TDs. Washington dropped its final six home games last season, but has won five straight home openers. The Cincinnati defense has allowed an average of 434.5 yards to rank 30th in the league - a far cry from the 316.3 per game it surrendered last season. The Bengals are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five road games.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53)

The Saints' 75 points allowed are tied - with Kansas City - for the highest total through two weeks. New Orleans is last in the league in overall defense at 461.0 yards per game and rushing defense. The Saints have played over the total in seven games dating back to last season and now host the Chiefs, who boast the fifth best rushing attack in the league (151 yards per game).

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (1, 40)

Dolphins RB Reggie Bush has averaged 126.7 rushing yards in his last six games - the most of any player since Week 13 of 2011. Miami has won two straight and five of its last six home games heading into its contest Sunday against New York. Jets QB Mark Sanchez has averaged 219.5 passing yards with nine TDs and four interceptions while going 2-4 versus Miami in his career. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (3, 44.5)

Bills RB C.J. Spiller leads the NFL with 292 rushing yards and 364 yards from scrimmage after running for 123 and two scores Sunday against the Chiefs. Buffalo has gone over the total in six straight September games and faces a Cleveland squad that’s 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 41.5)

Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert just plain stunk last week against Houston, finishing with 53 yards passing - his fewest as a starter. Gabbert suffered a glute injury in the contest, but he’s expected to suit up in Week 3. That's good news for the Colts, who have played under the total in their last six home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (3.5, 43)

The Cardinals defense is a major reason why they’re 2-0 and pulled off a major upset over the Patriots last week. The unit has only allowed two touchdowns and 3.4 yards per carry so far this season. The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to begin with a pair of one-point victories despite committing nine turnovers, which is three more than any other team. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-3, 47.5)

Falcons QB Matt Ryan is the league's top-rated passer with a rating of 117.6, and he's completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 518 yards and five touchdowns. San Diego’s offense is also rolling with 60 points scored and just one turnover after two games and the defense is allowing a league-low 41.5 rushing yards per game under new defensive coordinator John Pagano. The under is 10-1 in San Diego’s last 11 games as a home favorite.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (1, 44.5)

Broncos QB Peyton Manning tossed three interceptions in the first eight minutes of Denver’s Week 2 loss to the Falcons, but was 16-2 against Houston during his time in Indianapolis. His 110.6 QB rating against the Texans is his best against any team he's played more than four times. Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (3.5, 44.5)

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall (ACL) is on the mend and back at practice. His return could boost a running game that ranks 30th in the league in yardage while averaging just 2.6 per carry. The Raiders are also having trouble on the ground. Oakland is gaining an NFL-worst 2.0 yards per carry and RB Darren McFadden had just 22 yards on 11 attempts in last Sunday's loss at Miami. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49.5)

New England lost tight end Aaron Hernandez to an ankle injury Sunday against the Cardinals. The Patriots signed former Cleveland and Tampa Bay tight end Kellen Winslow on Wednesday to fill in and complement Rob Gronkowski. QB Tom Brady has a 69.1 passer rating in six career games against Baltimore including the postseason - his worst against any opponent. New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Baltimore.

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Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers at Reds
By STEVE MERRIL

The Reds and Dodgers square off in an intriguing NL contest on Sunday Night Baseball.

HOMER HAPPY

Homer Bailey has been a streaky pitcher for the Reds this season. The righty has a respectable 12-9 record with a 3.82 ERA overall and has allowed just five earned runs over his last four starts. Bailey had surrendered 22 runs over a five-start span prior to his recent hot streak.

HARANG MEET YOUR FORMER TEAM

Former Cincinnati hurler Aaron Harang gets the ball for the Dodgers. He’s 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA but has suffered from control issues lately. The right-hander has walked more batters than he’s struck out in three of his last four starts. However, he has an uncanny ability to wiggle out of jams, holding opponents to three runs or less in eight straight games.

INJURY REPORT

The Dodgers’ playoff hopes may rest on the availability of staff ace Clayton Kershaw down the stretch. The lefty’s injured hip is adding to the strain already put on a depleted rotation by injuries. Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley were in the mix, but both are done for the season with shoulder and elbow ailments. The Reds’ injury list is much shorter, but there is some concern about closer Aroldis Chapman’s fatigued throwing shoulder. The Cincinnati bullpen is already thin without the services of Nick Masset (shoulder) and Ryan Madson (elbow).

TRENDS

*Dodgers are 0-4 in Harang’s last four Sunday starts.
*The Reds have played over the total in Bailey’s last four starts vs. NL West opponents.
*Cincinnati is 25-10 in its last 35 Sunday games.

HITTERS TO WATCH

Ryan Ludwick is 14-for-36 vs. Harang.
Scott Rolen is 5-for-31 vs. Harang.
Adrian Gonzalez is 6-for-12 vs. Bailey.
Matt Kemp is 4-for-11 vs. Bailey.

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks 9/23

1 PM EST
417. Jacksonville Jaguars +3*

4:15 PM EST
421. Atlanta Falcons +3*

Rest of Games:
402. Chicago Bears -7
409. Cincinnati Bengals +3

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Playbook:

5 No by 20 over KC

4 Cincy by 10 over Washy

3 Minny by 3 over SF

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Sports Reporter:

Det by 16-Best

NYJ by 17-Best

Pitt by 14

Zona by 9

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Winning Points:

Cincy by 17

NYJ by 20

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REDSHEET:

Det 37 over Tenny 20 Rating 88

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PointWise:

San Franny over Minny Rating 2

Sandy Eggo over Hot Lanta Rating 3

Oaky over Pitty Rating 4

Det over Tenny Rating 4

Clever over Buffy Rating 5

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, September 23rd

2012 AFC East Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
NY Jets/Miami under 41 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Patriots @ Ravens Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
St Louis/Chicago over 43
San Francisco/Minnesota under 43
Detroit/Tennessee under 47 1/2
Jacksonville/Indianapolis under 43

Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, September 23rd

September's Sunday Night Football Super Total of the Month!!!!!
New England/Baltimore under 50

Late NFL Best Bets
Philadelphia/Arizona over 42
Atlanta/San Diego under 47 1/2
Houston/Denver over 44 1/2
Pittsburgh/Oakland under 45 1/2

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From Platinum Plays.

500K NFL Upset/Month

the St Louis Rams +7 over
the Chicago Bears

Best Bets


the San Francisco 49ers +6½ over
the Minnesota Vikings

the Cleveland Browns +3 over
the Buffalo Bills

the Jacksonville/Indianapolis Game UNDER
the Total Of 43 Points

the Cincinnati/Washington Game OVER
the Totals Of 49½ Points


500K NBC Totals Lock


the New England/Baltimore Game OVER
the Total Of 50 Points


Best Bets

the Baltimore Ravens -2 over
the New England Patriots

the San Diego Chargers -3 over
the Atlanta Falcons

the Arizona Cardinals +3½ over
the Philadelphia Phillies

the Pittsburgh/Oakland Game OVER
the Total Of 45 Points

Premier Picks


the NY Jets -1½ over
the Miami Dolphins

the Houston Texans -1½ over
the Denver Broncos

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NFL Predictions

Kevin

4 UNIT = Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins - REDSKINS -3 (-107) *4 Unit Play*
(Note: I'm risking 4.28 units to win 4.00 units)

The Bengals head to Washington with a 1-1 record. In Week 1 the Bengals were beat 44-13 in the first Monday Night game of the season against the Ravens. The Bengals entered as 7 point underdogs, but were blown out as they couldn't do anything on defense. Cincinnati's defensive struggles continued on Sunday, although they escaped with a 34-27 win over the Browns in their home opener. Browns rookie quarterback, who looked bad in Week 1, completed 26 of 37 pass attempts for 322 yards and 2 TDs against the Bengals. Trent Richardson who also didn't do much at all in Week 1 gained 109 yards on 19 carries and added a touchdown. The Bengals rank 30th on defense allowing 434 yards against per game, and they've giving up an average of 35.5 points against over their two games. Their passing defense is ranked 29th on the season while their rushing defense is 18th allowing 126 yards against per game. The good news for the Bengals defense is that they are expecting DE Carlos Dunlap and CB Jason Allen back in the line up. Offensively the Bengals have been average at best, ranking 18th in the NFL with 348 yards per game and 16th with 23.5 points per game. QB Andy Dalton had a rough game in Week 1 throwing for just 221 yards and 1 INT, but he did bounce back well against a bad Cleveland defense at home. Note that Dalton has been sacked 10 times through 2 games.

The Redskins will look to start the season 2-1 with a win in their home opener on Sunday. The Redskins stunned the league with a 40-32 victory in Week 1 over the Saints in New Orleans, with QB Robert Griffin III throwing for 320 yards and 2 Touchdowns (adding 42 yards on the ground) in his rookie debut. The Redskins then went into St Louis as 3 point favorites, and lead 21-16 at half before going on to lose 31-29. Washington had a chance to tie it up late and force overtime, but a dumb play by WR Joshua Morgan that cost them 15 yards put them out of field goal range. Again the defense was shaky letting Sam Bradford throw for 310 yards and 3 TDs, while giving up 141 yards on the ground. The defense ranks 28th allowing 405 yards against per game, and 27th allowing 31.5 points against per game. With that said, the Washington offense is 4th in the NFL averaging 416 yards per game through Week 2 and they are 1st in the league averaging 34 points per game. The Redskins lost two starters on defense in LB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker, and will need to rely on their offense to continue to play well. RG3 is 4th in the league with a 111.6 QB rating, compared to Bengals QB Andy Dalton who is 14th with a 93.9 QB Rating. One positive about the Redskins defense is they have done a good job forcing turnovers early in the season, with 6 forced turnovers in just two games.

Take a look at the Bengals since the start of the 2011 season and you will notice that they have yet to beat a 2011 playoff team, including their first two weeks of this season. The Redskins weren't a playoff team last year, but in my opinion the Bengals are slightly overrated. The Bengals were 5-4 on the road last season, but those wins last year came against the following teams: St Louis, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Cleveland. Nothing too impressive there and we add in the other teams Cincinnati beat at home (Arizona, Cleveland Indianapolis, and Buffalo) and you can see that most of their wins came against weaker 2011 teams. The Bengals are just 1-7-3 against the spread in their last 11 games overall and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 road games. I'm not really looking back at the Redskins play last season as this is a new look team, but take note that the Redskins were 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. Both teams have given up a lot defensively, but Sunday we should see the Redskins high powered offense take over the game. Washington isn't an easy place to play when the crowd is into it, and they no doubt will be with RG3 making his home debut. The Redskins win and cover.

2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans - LIONS -3 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)

The Detroit Lions probably have not opened up the 2012 season like they had hoped to. Detroit needed a last second touchdown to win at home in Week 1 versus the Rams, and then went into San Francisco on Sunday Night to lose to a very tough 49ers team 27-19. With that said, I wouldn't panic if I were a Lions fan as they pretty much dominated most of their Week 1 meeting with the Rams (a few mistakes by Stafford kept St Louis in it) and they showed up and competed Sunday against a team that many have picked to win Super Bowl. The Lions are ranked 14th on offense with 362 yards per game, and are 17th with 23 points per game. Defensively the Lions have been solid, ranking 10th allowing 299 yards against per game. Detroit is 18th giving up 25 points against per game, but a lot of that was on the offense in Week 1 with Stafford throwing 3 INTs. QB Matthew Stafford is ranked 27th in the league with a 73.2 QB Rating as he has throw 4 INTs and just 2 TDs through the first two weeks, but I expect him to have a great week here in Week 3 against the Titans defense that ranks 20th against the pass. Stafford has been sacked just 3 times so far this year, as the offensive line has done a good job protecting him. The Lions rely on their passing game, with their rushing offense ranking just 25th in the league, but I expect them to find some holes in the Titans defense that ranks 30th against the rush so far early in the season.

The Tennessee Titans have faced a tough schedule to start the year and are 0-2 after losses to New England and San Diego. The Titans were just 4.5 point underdogs hosting New England in Week 1 but lost that game 34-13 as Brady threw for 236 yards and 2 TDs and RB Stevan Ridley had no troubles rushing for 125 yards on 21 carries adding a TD. In Week 2 the Chargers hosted the Titans as 6.5 point favorites and went on to win 38-10 with Phillip Rivers throwing for 284 yards with 3 TDS and an INT. Without Ryan Matthews the Chargers don't have much of a run game right now, but they did manage to add 148 yards on the ground. Rookie QB Jake Locker has looked like a rookie through two weeks throwing for 403 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs for a 77.6 QB Rating.. Overall the Titans offense is 31st in the NFL averaging 248 yards per game, but Locker can't be blamed for that. Tennessee has rushed for just 29 yards per game, ranking them last (32nd) in the league. Like mentioned earlier, the Titans defense hasn't done much good to date, ranking 25th overall allowing 403 yards against per game.

The Lions excelled last season versus below average teams, and I can see them doing so again on Sunday. The Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Note that the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Titans have shown no signs on improving from an average season last year, with no running game (even with one of the best rushers in the league) and a very shaky start defensively. Detroit is a tough team to beat and their improvements on defense will help them go on the road this season and take care of teams like the Titans. I like the Lions laying just 3 points against the Titans here.

2 UNIT = Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys - BUCCANEERS +8.5 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.18 units to win 2.00 units)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a disasterous collapse in the second half of their Week 2 game against the Giants to fall to 1-1 on the season. After returning an Eli Manning INT for a touchdown to end the half the Bucs lead 24-13 heading into the locker room. Tampa Bay even lead 27-16 heading into the 4th quarter, before allowing the Giants to score 25 points in the final quarter to win 41-34. The collapse was good for us backing the Buccaneers this week though, as they've played 7 quality quarters of football to start the season. The Bucs hosted the Panthers in Week 1 as 2.5 point underdogs and went on to win 16-10. QB Josh Freeman has been fairly effective through the first two weeks completing just under 60% of his passes for 381 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs for a 85.5 QB Rating. Overall the offense is ranked just 29th with 282 yards per game, but as a team they've managed 25 points per game so far. Defensively the Bucs rank near the bottom of the league overall, but most of that was from a 4th quarter meltdown last week. The Buccaneers rushing defense is ranked 3rd overall allowing just 52 yards against per game. Another positive about the Bucs defense is that they've forced 5 INTs over 2 games. For what it's worth, Tampa Bay was averaging under 4 points against per quarter heading into the final quarter last week.

Dallas opened the season with a big confidence boosting 24-17 win over the defending Super Bowl champions, but then went into Seattle as 3.5 point favorites and lost 27-7 doing very little offensively. QB Tony Romo completed 23 of 40 pass attempts for 251 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, while the rushing game was pretty much non existent with Murray rushing for just 44 yards on 12 attempts. The Cowboys couldn't stop the run last week allowing Marshawn Lynch to rush for 122 yards, which lead to Russell Wilson being effective completing 15 of 20 attempts for 151 yards and 1 touchdown. Ultimately it was some special team mistakes that cost the Cowboys. Dallas has been good on defense ranking 9th allowing 292 yards against per game, but their offense dropped to (a still respectable) 10th in the league with 364 yards per game. Romo is 8th in the league with a 97.4 QB Rating, and has looked good to start the season. His numbers could be better if it weren't for a handful of dropped passes last week.

Take note that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs NFC opponents To me this 8.5 line looks like a bit of an over reaction to last week's meltdown by Tampa Bay, and I think they are a better team than most people think. Defensively Tampa Bay has been very solid for the most part of their two games to open the season, and I think the offense should be able to keep up with Dallas as the Cowboys will be dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys won just 4 of their 16 games last year by 7+ points, and I think this 8.5 point spread is too much - I'll take the points with the Bucs.

2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns - BILLS -2.5 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)

Buffalo rebounded from a 48-28 Week 1 loss in New York against the Jets by beating Kansas City last week 35-17 as 3 point favorites. With RB Fred Jackson out with an injury C.J. Spiller continued his tear, rushing for 123 yards on 15 attempts and adding two touchdowns. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was efficient when called upon, as he threw for 178 yards completing 10 of 19 attempts with 2 touchdowns. The Bills held Matt Cassel and the Chiefs to just 3 points through the first 3 quarters before giving up a pair of late touchdowns as they led 35-3. The Bills are 7th in the league with 384 yards per game offensively and are 4th with 31.5 points per game. Buffalo is 1st in the league in rushing with an average of 198 yards per game, mostly thanks to C.J. Spiller who has been stellar leading the league by 51 yards (with 292). The Browns rank 28th against the run and will have a lot of troubles containing Spiller. With 1 rough game defensively the Bills are ranked 25th in the league on defense, but I expect them to move up on that list after Week 3.

Like many had expected the Cleveland Browns have started the season 0-2. In Week 1 they almost pulled off a big upset losing 17-16 to the Eagles as 9 point underdogs. The Eagles put up over 400 yards of offense on the day but 4 Michael Vick INTs and 1 fumble almost led to a Browns upset win. In Week 2 Cleveland went into Cincinnati as 7 point underdogs and although the offense kept pace, the Browns defense couldn't slow down the Bengals who scored 34 points in a 34-27 victory. Cleveland ranks 29th overall in defense allowing 415 yards against per game. After a good game last week the offense moved up to 22nd in the league with 324 yards per game, but that was against a Bengals defense who hasn't looked good through two weeks. QB Brandon Weeden ranks 32nd in the league for QBs with a 57.6 QB Rating as he has completed 52.8% of his passes for 440 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs. Weeden looked good last week, but I expect him to have similar struggles to Week 1 against a good Bills defense.

Although the Bills are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games I think there is a bit of a mismatch here and the Bills should be able to win by 3+ points against one of the leagues worst teams in my opinion. Note that the Browns are just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 home games. Buffalo has been lethal on the ground and going against the Browns 28th ranked rush defense I don't see Cleveland being able to slow them down. Buffalo should be able to do enough on the ground to allow Fitzpatrick to be efficient again this week, while Weeden will have his problems. Take Buffalo -2.5.

2 UNIT = New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins - DOLPHINS +2.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)

The New York Jets surprised everyone putting up 48 points in their home opener in Week 1 beating the Bills 48-28, but then went on to put up just 10 points against a Steelers defense that was missing two key defensive stars. QB Mark Sanchez has completed 53.7% of his passes for 404 yards with 4 TDs and just 1 INT, which is good for a 95.0 QB Rating. Last week though Sanchez struggled to find open receivers, and his second half struggles led to a 27-10 loss in Pittsburgh. Overall the Jets rank 26th offensively with 301 yards per game. The Jets are middle of the pack defensively at 15th averaging 230 yards against per game. RB Shonn Greene has been less than impressive averaging just 58.5 yards per game over their first two weeks, which isn't good news going up against a good Miami run defense.

The Miami Dolphins had a tough Week 1 game against an AFC powerhouse in the Houston Texans, as they fell 30-10 as 13 point underdogs, but overall I felt they played pretty well that game behind a rookie quarterback. The Dolphins then hosted the Oakland Raiders looking to avoid an 0-2 start. Miami was a 2 point underdog but went on to crush the Raiders 35-13 behind a solid game from Reggie Bush who rushed for 172 yards and 2 TDs and a good game from rookie QB Ryan Tannehill who threw for 200 yards with 1 touchdown. Reggie Bush now ranked 2nd in the league with 120 yards per game, while the Dolphins overall are 2nd in rushing with 171 yards per game. Overall the Dolphins are 12th in the league averaging 363 yards per game. Despite giving up 30 points in Week 1 the Dolphins rank 19th overall in Defense giving up 366 yards against per game.

I think this game will come down to who can run the ball more effectively. The Dolphins rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 53 yards against per game on the ground after facing two elite RBs in Arian Foster and Darren McFadden, and shouldn't have much problems stopping Shonn Greene here at home. Meanwhile the Dolphins rank 2nd in rushing and will face the leagues 22nd ranked rush defense. Reggie Bush should have another good game against the Jets which will give Ryan Tannehill some space, while Mark Sanchez should be forced into some mistakes by a good Miami defense. This Dolphins team isn't getting enough credit yet and I don't think they should be underdogs here at home vs the Jets. Take Miami to cover.

2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders - RAIDERS +3.5 (-107)
(Note: I'm risking 2.14 units to win 2.00 units)

After the Steelers defense couldn't stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense in a 31-19 loss in Week 1, they bounced back allowing just 10 points against in a 27-10 victory in their home opener. Pittsburgh was without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week, and they are both ruled out for Week 3. Although Ben Roethlisberger has been solid completing 64.8% of his passes with 4 TDs and just 1 INT, the Steelers offense overall is ranked just 25th with 307 yards per game. The Steelers troubles have come in the run game, where they rank 30th in the league averaging just 70.5 yards per game and an awful 2.6 yards per attempt. The Steelers are 7th in the league defensively allowing just 267 yards against per game, but they did struggle in their road game vs the Broncos.

Not many would have predicted the Raiders being blown out in Miami last week after a 8 point home loss in Week 1. In their season and home opener against the Chargers the Raiders were 1 point favorites. Offensive struggles and a few special team mistakes led to a 22-14 loss. Oakland then went into Miami as 2 point favorites and were blown out 35-13 as Reggie Bush led the way for the Dolphins. The Raiders are in need of a win in Week 3 to prevent an 0-3 start that would make things very tough for the Raiders for the remainder of the year. Oakland is 15th overall in defensive allowing an average of 355 yards against per game after a good Week 1 game at home. The Raiders rush defense is 29th overall, but shouldn't be much of a problem against the Steelers who have had virtually no running game. Their pass defense is 8th with a solid 207 yards against per game through the air. Offensively the Raiders rank 15th in the NFL averaging 358 yards per game, but failing to turn those yards into points has them 31st in the league with just 13.5 points per game.

Take note that the Steelers were 5-3 on the road last season, but those road wins came against Cleveland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Indianapolis - with the victories over Cleveland, KC, and Indy all being 4 points or less. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Although the Raiders are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. This pick comes down to the Steelers offensive line struggling to produce a running game and struggling to protect Big Ben, and the defense missing some key components. Oakland is a tough place to play and with this game almost being a must win I think we see a good tough game from Oakland. Take the Raiders getting 3.5.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS NFL - Sunday, Sept. 23rd

HYDRA (5 UNITS)
TEXANS -1.5 at broncos (1:25pm)

TOP (3 UNITS)
49'ERS -6.5 at vikings (10am)
RAMS +7 at bears (10am)
SAINTS -8.5 vs chiefs (10am)
FALCONS +3at chargers (1pm)
RAVENS -PK (-140) vs patriots (SNF)
PACKERS -3 (-120) at seahawks (MNF)

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 3-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 1.55 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- Lohse is 1-1, 2.33 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 1.98 in his last four starts.
-- Stults is 3-1, 2.37 in his last five starts. Lincecum is 3-0, 2.52 in his last four outings.
-- Lee is 4-0, 1.27 in his last five starts.

-- Griffin is 3-1, 2.52 in his last four starts.
-- Scherzer is 5-0, 1.20 in his last seven starts, but left his last outing in third inning with a tired shoulder.
-- Tillman is 2-0, 1.69 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 2-1, 2.33 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 5-1, 3.47 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Young is 1-2, 4.66 in his last five starts.
-- Harang is 0-3, 4.97 in his last five starts.
-- Wang is 1-3, 6.62 in four starts this season.
-- Lyles is 1-1, 5.49 in his last four starts. Burnett is 0-4, 5.22 in his last five.
-- Germano is 0-6, 8.79 in his last six starts.
-- Francis is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- Hudson is 2-2, 4.94 in his last four starts.

-- Kuroda is 2-2, 4.67 in his last five starts.
-- Walters is 0-3, 12.86 in his last four starts. Diamond is 1-3, 7.33 in his last four starts. Smyly has a 5.82 RA in his last four starts, last fo which was on August 25.
-- Doubrant is 1-4, 7.22 in his last six starts.
-- Cobb is 1-1, 4.84 in his last four starts. Jenkins has allowed 10 runs in 18.1 IP in big leagues this year; he was 5-9, 4.96 in 20 starts at AA this summer.
-- Huff allowed three runs in 4.1 IP in his first '12 start.
-- Kansas City's big pitching prospect Odorizzi was 15-5, 3.03 in minors this year, mostly in AA.
-- Floyd has a 5.51 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Vargas is 1-2, 5.18 in his last four starts.


Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won 24 of their last 31 games.
-- Phillies won 20 of their last 27 games. Atlanta won six of its last eight.
-- Reds won five of their last six games.
-- Astros are actually 8-7 in their last fifteen games.
-- Arizona won five of its last six games.
-- Giants won 18 of their last 24 games.


-- Bronx won nine of its last ten games.
-- Tigers won seven of their last ten games.
-- Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 43 runs.
-- Orioles won their last six games, scoring 39 runs.
-- Royals won last four games, allowing nine runs.
-- Angels won 17 of their last 24 games.
-- Rangers are 12-1 in game following their last 13 losses.


Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
-- Washington lost five of its last eight games.
-- Mets lost ten of their last thirteen games. Miami lost eight of last 11.
-- Dodgers lost eleven of their last sixteen games.
-- Pirates lost 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Rockies lost 15 of their last 17 games.
-- San Diego lost four of its last five games.


-- Oakland lost five of its last six games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Red Sox lost 18 of their last 24 games.
-- Blue Jays lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- White Sox lost last four games, scoring seven runs.
-- Mariners lost six of their last nine games.


Totals
-- Seven of last ten St Louis games stayed under total.
-- 15 of last 22 Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Atlanta games.
-- Under is 20-11-1 in Mets' last 32 games.
-- Ten of last thirteen Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Pittsburgh games.
-- 11 of last 13 Colorado games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven San Francisco games went over total.


-- Seven of last eleven Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over (after a 19-2-2 under run).
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Last five Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-2-2 in White Sox' last sixteen road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Texas road games.

Umpires
-- Mil-Wsh-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen TBarrett games.
-- Mia-NY-- Last seven Schrieber games went over the total.
-- StL-Chi-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Bucknor games; underdogs won six of his last seven games behind the plate.
-- Atl-Phil-- Visiting team won five of last six Barry games.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Over is 6-0 in Timmons games if total is 9.5 or higher; 6-17 if the total is 9 or lower.
-- LA-Cin-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Holbrook games.
-- Az-Col-- Underdogs won last five Nelson games.
-- SD-SF-- 15 of 16 Baker games stayed under the total.

-- Blt-Bos-- Eight of last eleven Porter games went over total.
-- Min-Det-- Four of last five Hallion games stayed under. Eight of last nine O'Nora games also stayed under.
-- Tex-Sea-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Danley games.
-- A's-NY-- Six of last seven Estabrook games stayed under.
-- Tor-TB-- Bob Davidson has no discernable trends as an umpire, besides fact that he calls too many balks.
-- Cle-KC-- Home side won seven of last nine Ripperger games.
-- Chi-LA-- Home side won last eight Hickox games, with four of his last five games going over the total.

[poopoo333]

Today's NFL Picks

New England at Baltimore

The Patriots look to bounce back from last week's loss to Arizona and build on their 10-4 ATS record following an ATS loss. New England is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: New England (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23 Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (9/19)

Game 401-402: St. Louis at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.082; Chicago 136.005 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 11; 41 Vegas Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Tampa Bay at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.692; Dallas 137.533 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 11; 43 Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

Game 405-406: San Francisco at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.086; Minnesota 129.681 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 130.154; Tennessee 132.776 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Cincinnati at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.845; Washington 130.226 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46 Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.543; Miami 126.404 Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3; 43 Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 40 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Kansas City at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.585; New Orleans 141.744 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 19; 49 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Buffalo at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.467; Cleveland 131.651 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 42 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 417-418: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.230; Indianapolis 126.282 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 44 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

Game 419-420: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.416; Arizona 135.310 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 47 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 43 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Atlanta at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.442; San Diego 136.176 Dunkel Line: Even; 45 Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 423-424: Houston at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.005; Denver 135.670 Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Pittsburgh at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.289; Oakland 127.414 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 40 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 44 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Under

Game 427-428: New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.057; Baltimore 138.997 Dunkel Line: New England by 3; 46 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Under