10-14-12

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4 Stars: No 4* NFL Plays This Week
3 Stars: Denver, Dallas, San Francisco
2 Stars: Buffalo, St Louis, Atlanta

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AccuScore - Analyst: Week 6 NFL PIcks

Written by Jon Lee

This has been an odd season to say the least. However, our analyst is working hard to pick winners. Last weekend, our analyst went 2-2, so, now his record is at 6-5-2. After 5 weeks, he’s keeping his profits positive and gearing up for a big-time winning weekend. This week he’s got 3 new picks. 2 picks are for members only and 1 is free for everyone, so if you want to come along for the winnings, start following along. This is usually about the time our analyst gets on fire!
NFL Week 6 Free Picks

San Diego Chargers -1 vs. Denver Broncos
So far this season, AccuScore has gone a solid 14-9 picking AFC games, and 3-1 picking San Diego games against the spread. The computer projects the Chargers as solid favorites at home favoring the bolts by four points. San Diego wins outright more than 60 percent of the time, and teams rarely win by a single point. That is less likely to happen as both teams should put up points with the game likely played in the high 20s to low 30s. The Chargers actually win by double digits in a third of simulations, twice as often as the Broncos.

San Diego vs. Denver Over 49.5 Points

The computer has gone a combined 7-3 picking totals in game involving either of these teams. The Over occurs in over 60 percent of simulations with the average total points being 53. Both Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers project for nearly 280 passing yards which should translate into plenty of points.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Cleveland Browns
Here is another AFC match-up which the Bengals win 57 percent of the time in simulations. The Browns legitimately are one of the worst teams in the NFL with quarterback Brandon Weeden completing just 55 percent of his passing with 5 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions. The Bengals already won the first match-up between these two teams with the Browns only cutting the deficit to seven by kicking a field goal with just 20 seconds left. The computer has gone 3-1 picking the Bengals ATS this season, and it favors Cincy by 3.

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Wunderdog Sports

Oakland at Atlanta
Pick: Oakland +9

The Oakland Raiders are off a much-needed bye week and head to Atlanta to take on the 5-0 Falcons. Atlanta is getting a huge year out of QB Matt Ryan who leads the NFL in passer rating. While that aspect of the Falcons has been perfect, they simply don't stack up as a 5-0 team. Offensively they are ranked just No. 12 in the league. Defensively they weigh-in at just No. 17, and when you look at those rakings, it doesn't jump out and say 5-0 Super Bowl contender. Those numbers are sure better than Oakland who is ranked No. 25 on both offense and defense. But, that alone doesn't warrant a nearly double-digit line. It is the 5-0 record that is driving up the line, and nearly 80% of the public has taken the bait. The big edge the Raiders have here serves two purposes. Darren McFadden is a quality back, and that is the Falcons Achilles heel, as they have allowed 110+ rushing yards to every team they have faced, despite leading in most of them. A good running game also helps to shorten the game for the Raiders, which makes the points look even sweeter here. Oakland should stay close here.

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Info Plays

7* Oakland Raiders +10½

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Neil Larson

Top Sport Cappers

50* GOW Green Bay

10* Oakland

10* Dallas

10* Buffalo

10* Denver/San Diego Under

+240 Dimes Last 30 days in Football

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Oklahoma Saturday.

Sunday it’s the Bills. The deficit is 726 sirignanos.

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Fargo's 10* NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL (MASSIVE 15-5!) CONTRARIAN WINNER!

Browns

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Fargo's 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (AWESOME 15-5!) MASSIVE BLOWOUT!

Jets

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sixth sense

3% chiefs +4
3% dolphins -4
3% eagles -3.5
3% seahawks +3.5
3% broncos +1.5
3% 49ers -6.5

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks 10/14

1:00 PM EST
217. Dallas Cowboys +3*
*
4:25 PM
226. Arizona Cardinals -4*
*
Rest of Games
214. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4

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Football Jesus free pick Sunday
Seattle Seahawks + points

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Giants at 49ers: What bettors need to know

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The San Francisco 49ers will be seeking revenge when they host the New York Giants on Sunday. San Francisco dropped a 20-17 overtime decision at home to New York in last season's NFL Championship game as Kyle Williams muffed two late punts, including one in the extra session that led to the Giants' game-winning field goal. The 49ers have been unstoppable since losing to Minnesota in Week 3, outscoring their opponents 79-3 in two victories.

The Giants, who rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to trounce Cleveland 41-27 last Sunday, are going for their fourth win in five regular-season meetings with San Francisco. New York could be facing a pair of former teammates in running back Brandon Jacobs and wide receiver Mario Manningham, who both were allowed to leave as free agents. Jacobs, however, is questionable to make his 49ers debut due to a knee injury he suffered during the preseason.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: 49ers -6.5, O/U 45.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-2): Quarterback Eli Manning has passed for at least 200 yards in 24 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history. New York ranks second in the league with an average of 30.4 points. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw and wide receiver Victor Cruz became the first teammates to run for 200 yards and haul in three touchdown passes in a game since 1960. The Giants' defense has struggled, allowing an average of 22.2 points.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-1): San Francisco is tied for third in the league in scoring as it is averaging 29.8 points per game. It became the first team in NFL history to record 300 yards both passing and rushing in last Sunday's 45-3 rout of Buffalo. The 49ers gained a franchise-record 621 yards in the triumph. Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a sprained middle finger against the Bills but insists it won't affect him versus New York. San Francisco has allowed only one 100-yard rusher in its last 43 contests.

TRENDS:
* Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four road games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The home team has won each of the last three meetings and four of the last five.

2. New York has scored at least 36 points in each of its three wins while notching 17 in each of its two losses.

3. San Francisco has allowed a league-low 13.6 points per game this season.

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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Texans

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)

Even while maintaining their spotless record to open the season, the Houston Texans suffered a significant loss Monday night. They'll look to keep rolling without one of their top defenders as they welcome the high-octane Green Bay Packers to town Sunday evening. Houston will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets.

Cushing's absence will provide the Texans with their stiffest test of the season, as they face a Packers team off to a miserable start but still capable of burning opposing defenses. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. Aaron Rodgers appears to be rounding into form - having thrown seven touchdowns over his last two games - but the running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Texans -3.5, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-3): Benson was placed on IR but given the "designated to return" tag, meaning he is eligible to come back in Week 14. Head coach Mike McCarthy believes Benson will return at some point during the season, but in the meantime the Packers will go with the "hot hand." Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans, with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss this week's game with a groin ailment.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-0): Cushing doesn't believe his season-ending injury has derailed the Texans' title aspirations. "WE are STILL winning THIS year's Super Bowl," he posted on his Facebook page. Nevertheless, his absence will put more pressure on a defense led by standout defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with a whopping 8.5 sacks through the first five games of the season. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Packers offensive line that has surrendered 21 sacks so far, second-most in the NFL.

TRENDS:
* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Texans have been far more effective at protecting the quarterback than Green Bay, allowing a league-low three sacks to date.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson caught eight passes for 119 yards and a score in Week 1, but has just nine total receptions in four games since.

3. Packers TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) isn't expected to practice until at least Friday - if at all - and will likely be a game-time decision.

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 6

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick hitting notes on all of Week 6's action.

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 48)

The Raiders are coming off a bye week and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey could be healthy enough to suit up for the first time since being hospitalized after being on the wrong end of a helmet-to-helmet hit against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Oakland hasn’t performed well on the road this season, being outscored 72-19 in two road losses to Miami and Denver. The Falcons are off to the best start in franchise history (5-0) and are seeking a seventh straight home victory Sunday. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 40)

Chiefs Backup QB Brady Quinn is prepared to make his first start in almost three years after first-string signal-caller Matt Cassel was knocked out of last week’s loss to Baltimore with a concussion. Kansas City has committed a league-high 19 turnovers and its defense has allowed 29 points per game. Tampa Bay has dropped its last three contests by a combined 15 points since opening the season with a 16-10 victory over Carolina. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five October games.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 43)

Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck has exceeded preseason expectations, throwing for more than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns over his first four games. Indianapolis comes in on a high after storming back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Green Bay Packers 30-27 last weekend. The Jets had a glorious opportunity to knock off the unbeaten Houston Texans last Monday, but poor personnel management and more Mark Sanchez mistakes ultimately proved costly. Sanchez could have a short leash this week if he doesn’t get off to a good start. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (1, 43.5)

The visiting Bengals have won four straight and 13 of the last 16 meetings in the "Battle of Ohio" rivalry with Cleveland, which has lost 11 in a row overall. The Browns’ secondary will be bolstered this week by the return of star cornerback Joe Haden, who served a four-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 47.5)

The Detroit Lions are hoping the bye week was just what they needed. Detroit enters its Week 6 meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles having lost three straight games following a season-opening victory over St. Louis. The Lions have put up a fight in the setbacks, however, as each loss was by eight points or fewer. Philadelphia has taken the last five meetings with Detroit, scoring at least 30 points in each of the last three victories. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38)

Jeff Fisher has the Rams north of the .500 mark for the first time in six years and the club has already surpassed last year’s win total. St. Louis will play without top WR Danny Amendola, who broke his collarbone in last week’s win over Arizona, so the team’s focus could shift to Steven Jackson and the running game. The only problem is that Miami is ranked No.1 in the league against the run and has recorded 11 sacks in the past two weeks. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44)

Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw five INTs against Chicago in Week 4 (Dallas is coming off a bye week) and has two TDs against seven INTs in the last three games combined. Dallas’ secondary also took a hit against Chicago when S Barry Church was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. The Ravens defense forced four turnovers to grind out a 9-6 win at Kansas City in Week 5 and are riding a three-game winning streak. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 43)

Arizona suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of St. Louis last Thursday. Quarterback Kevin Kolb was sacked nine times and RB Ryan Williams sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in the defeat. The Buffalo defense has been downright awful lately, surrendering 1,201 total yards to New England and San Francisco over the past two games. The Bills have played over the total in nine of their last 12 road games.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (3.5, 44.5)

New England leads the league in scoring and is averaging 165.4 yards on the ground behind Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. The Patriots have tallied over 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games for the first time since 1978 and used the ground game along with Brady’s passing to set a franchise record with 35 first downs in a 31-21 win over the Denver Broncos last week. Seattle has one of the best stop units in the league and is 2-0 at home, while allowing a total of 19 points at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have played under the total in all five games this season.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The Giants, who rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to trounce Cleveland 41-27 last Sunday, are going for their fourth win in five regular-season meetings with San Francisco. The 49ers have been unstoppable since losing to Minnesota in Week 3, outscoring their opponents 79-3 in two victories. San Francisco became the first team in NFL history to record 300 yards both passing and rushing en route to a franchise-record 621 yards in last Sunday's 45-3 rout of Buffalo. The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Projected -2.5, 45)

The Vikings go for a fourth straight victory and look to claim sole possession of the NFC North lead Sunday. Minnesota expects star RB Adrian Peterson, who has 420 yards rushing and two scores so far this season, to be available after he suffered a left ankle sprain in last week’s convincing victory over the Titans. Redskins’ rookie QB Robert Griffin III has been cleared to practice after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss to the Falcons, but he could be held out if he experiences any setbacks throughout the week. If the No. 2 overall pick can't suit up, head coach Mike Shanahan will start either rookie Kirk Cousins or Rex Grossman. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)

The undefeated Houston Texans will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. The Packers' running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson. Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss another week with a groin ailment. Green Bay has failed to cover in its last four road games.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 6's best prop plays
By SEAN MURPHY

Following last week's 2-2 split, we're now a modest 12-8 inside the NFL Prop Shop this season. Here's a look at four prop picks to click this Sunday.

Most passing yards

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

Is an explanation really necessary?

The Colts offense continues to come together with first-overall draft pick Andrew Luck front and center. He added to his growing legend in Indy last week, driving the Colts for the game-winning score against the Packers. He's got plenty of weapons to work with and won't be intimidated by this matchup with the reeling Jets.

Mark Sanchez will continue to lose snaps to Tim Tebow as long as the offense keeps struggling. It's not all Sanchez's fault, as the cupboard is virtually bare at wide receiver. I don't see the Jets’ passing game gaining much traction this week, even against a below-average Colts secondary.

Take: Luck

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) vs. Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals)

The Bills’ rushing game has ground to a halt over the last couple of weeks, and this isn't an ideal matchup to “get right” in that regard. I fully expect to see Ryan Fitzpatrick bombing away in an effort to kick-start the offense. He'll take his lumps, but he'll also pick up some serious passing yardage.

I'm not a Kevin Kolb fan by any means. Even with the Cardinals’ ground game down to the third-string following injuries to Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, I'm still confident we'll see Arizona focus on pounding the football against a soft Bills defense.

Take: Fitzpatrick

Most rushing yards

Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) vs. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks)

Stevan Ridley is coming off back-to-back big games, but he'll run into a tough Seahawks defense and I won't be surprised if the Pats move away from the ground game when the going gets tough. Note that Seattls is giving up just 3.2 yards per rush this season.

With Russell Wilson turning the football over on a regular basis, it would be wise of the Seahawks to focus on pounding the ball between the tackles with workhorse Marshawn Lynch. Pete Carroll knows that his Seahawks offense will need to stay on the field for prolonged drives in this matchup and that means we'll see plenty of Lynch.

Take: Lynch

Most pass receptions

Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

We've seen far too many dropped passes from Dez Bryant to trust him in this particular matchup. How much confidence can Tony Romo have in Bryant at this point? Jason Witten and Miles Austin should receive the bulk of the targets with the Boys coming off a much-needed bye week.

Torrey Smith continues to evolve into a star wide receiver. In fact, he's already there. Anquan Boldin is no longer the main man when it comes to the Ravens’ aerial attack. Smith is Joe Flacco's favorite target and should find plenty of open field to work with against a good, but not great Cowboys defense.

Take: Smith