10-14-12

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SB Professor Reloaded NFL Picks 10/14
1 PM EST
222. Miami Dolphins* (best available odds -4*)

4:05 PM EST
230. San Francisco 49ers -6.5*

8:20 PM EST
232. Houston Texans* (best available odds -3*)

Rest of Games
220. Philadelphia Eagles (best available odds -3)

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Youngstown Connection
Cincinnati-1
Rams 5
2team tease atl-3 sanfran-3

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Andrew Lange NFL

15* Chiefs +4.5
20* Broncos +2.5

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SPORTS WAGERS

HOUSTON -3½ -103 over Green Bay

If you’re waiting for the Packers to get back to their 15-1 form from a year ago, don’t hold your breath. Was blowing a 21-3 to the inexperienced Colts just a fluke or a sign of things to come? We’re thinking the latter. Green Bay appears confused. They’ve lost their identity. The coach seems unsure. The offensive line is troubled. There is no running game to speak of and the secondary can’t seem to cover people. All of that does not bode well when playing the current odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Texans are for real. They have not allowed more than two scores to any opposing quarterback and after five games, no running back has scored a rushing touchdown. Better yet, there have only been two touchdowns given up to any wide receivers and none of them had more than 50 receiving yards in Houston. They are strong throughout and they now get a national stage to flaunt their stuff for a home audience. The Packers are still a public team. Oddsmakers know that and the line reflects it. This is a cheap price for a superior team facing a team that has more reputation than skill.

Buffalo +4½ -102 over ARIZONA

The Bills have been bad. Brutally bad. 97-31 bad over their past two games. But those two contests took place against the Patriots and 49ers, two of the best teams in football. The best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off. Buy low we always preach. As we venture through October, things typically start to stabilize.
Arizona has had some favorable bounces. Three of their four wins have been by three or less points, including one in overtime. As a favorite, they are high risk with an abysmal running game that ranks 31st in the league (63 yds. per game) and an inept passing game. Much can be attributed to Arizona’s putrid offensive line that has its quarterbacks being batted around like piñatas. That should inspire Buffalo’s defense, a unit that has come under severe scrutiny and criticism. Against this weak Cardinals’ offensive line, the Bills have an opportunity to silence said critics. Buffalo wisely chose to stay out west after playing at San Francisco. A confining week away allows the Bills to avoid dealing with home fans and media while allowing the coaching staff to fix some things. Definite upset possibility.

Indianapolis +3 +108 over N.Y. JETS

Did you hear the one about the Jets being favored? Monday’s semi-respectful loss to the Texans has allowed New York to be lined up this way but the multitude of issues remains and requiring them to win, let alone by a margin, has to be ill advised. The Jets best offensive play of the first half On Monday was when Sanchez was stripped of the ball and newly acquired Lex Hilliard picked up the fumble and ran about four times longer than Shonn Greene’s average carry. Coach Rex Ryan is beginning to cave on the quarterback situation. Having Mark Sanchez is bad enough. Having Sanchez without viable playmakers is insurmountable. No matter what you see or hear, Tim Tebow would be worse.
The Colts are feeling good about themselves after climbing a mountain to defeat the Packers. Andrew Luck has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. The Colts will take to the road for first time since week one and are much more prepared to do so. Give us the superior quarterback, the inspired team and a few points to go with it and we’ll gladly take a position.

CLEVELAND +2 -105 over Cincinnati

The strain of losing is no fun but the Browns have been in every game this year outside of week one loss against Cincinnati. They were in that game for the first half. The difference this time is the venue and the fact that all the 0-5 Browns’ rookies are a month more experienced. Brandon Weeden lends hope as a NFL calibre pivot, something that’s been absent in Cleveland for years. He’s thrown in around 300 yards three times this year including 322 yards and two scores in Cincinnati without the availability of NFL-quality receivers. That said, Weeden found a couple of fresh targets last week that actually caught the ball. The Brownies are on the verge of a win.
Andy Dalton has calmed down from his initial 300 yard, three touchdown games in Weeks 2 & 3. Against the Jaguars, he only threw for 244 yards and two scores and then 234 yards with one touchdown against the Dolphins. We think Cincy is more sizzle than steak and with the glaring defensive issues plaguing this Cincinnati team we’re not comfortable spotting anything with them on the road, especially in a division matchup against a team they're sick of losing to. No units risked.

Kansas City +4½ -104 over TAMPA BAY

The Chiefs are currently boasting -15 turnover ratio. Who knew it went that high? While not all of it is QB Matt Cassel’s fault, he is shelved this week and Brady Quinn will get the start. A fresh face may help.
Josh Freeman twice has failed to top 140 yards passing in a game. He has halted his own rushing attempts in an attempt to focus on his aerial game. That isn’t working out very well. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback, lacking a supporting ground game and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack. Besides, never a good idea to giving away points with a team that has one win in its past 14 games. No units risked.

Oakland +9 -105 over ATLANTA

The NFL is a sport that is both physically and mentally exhausting. It has been proven time and time again that it’s near impossible to maintain peak levels over a 16-game schedule. Upsets happen all the time in both college and the NFL when a seemingly easy target comes to town. The big chalk consciously or subconsciously takes a breather and before they know it, they’re in a fight that they were not quite prepared for. Don’t be surprised to see the Falcons fall prey to this.
The Falcons are feeling much love with their unblemished record and quality play. Atlanta’s huge division lead and upcoming week off could create some complacency. Oakland has had an extra week to right some wrongs and should be ready to go here. Every season the Raiders pull off an unlikely upset or come very close to doing so. This one sets up just right for them to put a scare into the host. No units risked.

Dallas +3½ -104 over BALTIMORE

The Cowboys started strongly, manhandling the Giants in season opener. It’s been topsy-turvy since but maybe Dallas best after rest. Cowboys are 7-1 against spread after a break and the underdog in Dallas games has been inordinately good.
Baltimore sputtering a bit with strenuous efforts over lowly Chiefs and Browns. They’ve also allowed three passers (Dalton, Weeden and Brady) to exceed 320 yards and Tony Romo is quite capable of the same. Outside of week one win over Cincinnati, the Ravens have been anything but impressive. Until we see something different out of this aging group, we’re not comfortable spotting points with them against a potentially dangerous opponent. No units risked.

PHILADELPHIA -3½ +102 over Detroit

Tough one as the Eagles can’t score and the Lions can’t stop anyone. The Eagles are 3-2 overall but have been held to fewer than 20 in all but one game. The 1-3 Lions come off their bye having last lost to the visiting Vikings in a game that more or less confirmed that these are not the same Lions as 2011 group.
Both squads have been wallet guzzlers, a combined 7-24 versus the number. Lions still too sloppy to endorse while Eagles figure to break out of their offensive doldrums against one of the weakest defenses a team can face. Remember Detroit’s 44-41 loss to the Titans? No units risked.

MIAMI -3½ -110 over St. Louis

Rams breathing the sweet air of a winning record for first time in six years but we’re not sure how long that will last. The Rams are still winless on the road and the loss of their best receiver will be more impactful on the road. Rams also in a letdown spot after consecutive home wins against offensively challenged Seahawks and Cardinals, the latter in prime time.
Rams now travel to hot and stuffy Florida to face an improving Miami squad that is anxious to be home after two away. Fish could easily be 4-1 after difficult losses to both Jets and Cardinals. The Dolphins need a win here to reach .500 heading into their bye next week and this should be a very winnable game against a team with little offense like the Raiders, who showed up and were sent packing. No units risked.

N.Y. Giants +6½ -106 over SAN FRAN

The 49ers are on such a well-balanced roll that it is hard to remember that only three weeks ago they were spanked by the Vikings. Trap game aside, these 49ers are on a warpath this year. They’ve won consecutive games by a combined 79-3. Not only is this not the Jets or Bills visiting but when a club puts up big offensive scores in back-to-back weeks, you will subsequently pay a premium to wager on them and that seldom comes recommended.
You’ll also hear and read about San Fran’s revenge factor after they lost to these Giants in last year’s classic NFC Championship game. That won’t bother the G-Men as they are 16-4 against the number versus teams looking to avenge a previous encounter. Eli Manning is still putting up outstanding numbers and New York is at its best when expected to lose. Taking a near touchdown with SB champs? What? No units risked.

SEATTLE +3½ -110 over New England

Much like the Niners, New England has put up eye-opening scores the past two weeks with 83 points scored. Offense attracts bettors, the odds makers know it, we know it and we also know to not get too caught up in it. Let’s not ignore that the Pats also gave up 31 points to the Ravens, 28 to the Bills and this is their fourth road game in the first six weeks.
The Bermuda Triangle has nothing on CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Stronger teams cross into the northwest and die here as the Seahawks’ 12-2-1 home underdog record will attest to. New England’s offensive line will be tested in this matchup and if Seattle’s pass rushers are as good as advertised, this will be a game. No units risked.

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, October 14th

2012 American Football Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Cincinnati/Cleveland over 42 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Packers @ Texans Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
Kansas City/Tampa Bay under 40 1/2
Oakland/Atlanta under 48 1/2
Dallas/Baltimore under 44 1/2
Detroit/Philadelphia over 47 1/2

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Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, October 14th

October's Sunday Night Football Super Total of the Month!!!!!
Green Bay/Houston over 47 1/2

Late NFL Best Bets
New England/Seattle under 44
Buffalo/Arizona over 44
Minnesota/Washington over 43
NY Giants/San Francisco under 46

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From Platinum Plays.

500K NFL Shocker/Year

the Dallas Cowboys +3½ over
the Baltimore Ravens

Best Bets


the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 over
the Kansas City Chiefs

the Detroit Lions +3½ over
the Philadelphia Eagles

the Miami Dolphins -4½ over
the St Louis Rams

the Oakland Raiders +9 over
the Atlanta Falcons




the Green Bay Packers +3½ over
the Houston Texans

the Green Bay/Houston Game OVER
the Total of 47½ PointsBest Bets




500K NBC Parlay


the Washington Redskins -1½ over
the Minnesota Vikings

the Buffalo Bills +4 over
the Arizona Cardinals

the Seattle Seahawks +3½ over
the New England Patriots


Premier Picks


the Cincinnati Bengals -2½ over
the Cleveland Browns

the NY Giants +6½ over
the San Francisco Giants

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Bob Balfe Sports

October 14th, 2012

Sunday Free Pick

Jets -3.5 over Colts
The Colts are coming off such an emotional victory in which they battled back from a huge halftime hole that I just don't think the intensity is going to be there today like it was at home a week ago. The Jets are a dangerous football team because they are in desperation mode and are starting to get a few guys back into the lineup. The Colts have a talent QB in Andrew Luck, but he is just a rookie and never has won on the road. Indy is pretty banged up in the running game and on defense. Its easy to remember what the Colts did last week, but the Packers are not the same team as in the past few seasons and today has nothing to do with last Sunday. I think the Jets will win pretty easily. Take New York.

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFL MONTREAL at TORONTO

Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (TORONTO) versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite.
49-37 since 1997. ( 57.0% 0.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.0 units )

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = DENVER(Monday night)
3* = N.Y. GIANTS
2* = Detroit
2* = Minnesota
2* "over" on Packers/Texans

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MLB TOTALS

1/2 Dime - Baltimore Ravens -3

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4* Under 44.5 New England vs. Seattle (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

SUNDAY NFL PREDICTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #220 Philadelphia (-4) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #211 Indianapolis (+3) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #225 Buffalo (+5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #223 New England (-3.5) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take #209 Cincinnati (-1.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take #214 Tampa Bay (-4) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take #230 San Francisco (-6) over N.Y. Giants (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take #232 Houston (-3.5) over Green Bay (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

This Week's Totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.0 Dallas at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.5 Green Bay at Houston (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

15* NFL Big Ticket Rivalry Winner
Bengals

[Mr. IWS]

FREDDY WILLS
11-2 CURRENT NFL RUN

5.5* Cowboys +4 Over Baltimore
3.3* Seahawks +3.5 Over Patriots
2.2* Browns +2.5 Over Bengals