11-11-12

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FL Betting Picks /Kevin

2 UNIT = Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins - DOLPHINS -5.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)
Miami will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Tennessee is just 3-6 this year and 1-3 on the road. The Dolphins are 4-4 and 2-1 at home. Tennessee has lost two straight and 4 of 6, including their 51-20 loss at home on Sunday against the Bears. In their three victories they've scored 26+ points, but in their 6 losses they've scored 20 or fewer points in all games and 14 or fewer points in 5 of the 6. That isn't good news for them heading into Miami facing a tough defense. The Dolphins dropped a 23-20 game on Sunday in Indianapolis, but had won three straight before that. The Dolphins rank 24th in the league overall defensively, but are 6th in papg at just 18.6. The Titans on the other hand are 30th overall and last at 32nd in papg at 34.2. They give up 141 yards against per game on the ground (30th) and that should be troubles going against a good running team in the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill has shown improvement completing 22 of 38 last week for 290 yards and a TD. Take note that the Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents. The Titans are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs AFC opponents, and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Losing 5 of their 6 games by 21+ points I don't see the Titans keeping this one close against a well balanced Dolphins team. I expect the Dolphins to win by a touchdown or more on Sunday - take them to cover

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David Banks

Leans

Carolina

Miami

Det/Min Over

Dallas

San Francisco

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DAVE BLEZOW Lock of the Week :
( 2-7 )

Lock- NY GIANTS

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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 10

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 10's action.

Denver at Carolina (3.5, 47)
Peyton Manning and the AFC West-leading Broncos hit the road seeking a fourth straight win against Cam Newton and the Panthers, who ended a five-game losing streak last week. Manning, the league's highest-rated passer, has thrown three touchdowns in five straight games after leading Denver to a 31-23 win over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Broncos are averaging 31.6 points over their last five contests and have outscored opponents 100-37 over the last 10 quarters. Denver has played over the total in six of its last seven road games.

San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3, 47)
Tampa Bay scored more than 22 points just once in its first four games, going 1-3 in the process. Following their bye week, the Buccaneers have won three of four contests, scoring 28 points in the loss while registering at least 36 in each victory. A big reason for the recent offensive outburst is the exceptional play of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and exploded for 251 yards off 25 carries with four TDs against Oakland last week. The Bucs have played over the total in their last five games.

Tennessee at Miami (-6, 44)
Titans QB Jake Locker has been cleared for contact for the first time since dislocating his non-throwing shoulder on Sept. 30 and is expected to start. Team owner Bud Adams said his team was "grossly outcoached and outplayed" after the Titans were destroyed by the Bears last week and detailed that everyone on the roster was "on notice" following the loss. Miami saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 23-20 setback to Indianapolis last week, but rookie signal-caller Ryan Tannehill continues to impress and hasn't committed a turnover since Sept. 30 (98 pass attempts). The Dolphins have played under the total in their last four games overall.

Buffalo at New England (-11, 52)
Surprisingly, the Bills waged a gritty battle with AFC-leading Houston before falling 21-9 last week. After the dust settled, Buffalo was held without a touchdown for the third time in the past four games. Tom Brady and the Pats have revved things up, scoring 180 points in their last five games, including a 45-point outburst across the pond against the Rams prior to their bye week. New England has already beaten the Bills 52-28 this season and has now taken 17 of the last 18 meetings in the series. The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Oakland at Baltimore (-9.5, 46)
The Raiders, who rank 31st in the NFL in rushing, could be without their top two running backs when they visit Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are dealing with ankle sprains and are questionable, leaving third-string RB Taiwan Jones at the top of the depth chart. Baltimore has won 14 straight regular-season home games, the longest current streak in the NFL. But more concerning is the fact that QB Joe Flacco has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games. The Ravens are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (3.5, 48.5)
Eli Manning saw his streak of 25 consecutive 200-yard passing games end at Dallas on Oct. 28 and he followed that up by throwing for a season-low 125 yards in a loss to the Steelers last Sunday. The Bengals blew a 14-point lead to Denver last week for their fourth consecutive defeat - and third in a row at home. One reason for their skid is an increasingly one-dimensional offense and the failure of the running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has yet to rush for 100 yards and has topped out at 69 yards during the four-game losing streak. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS during the slump.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1, 53.5)
New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game and their porous pass defense will have its hands full against QB Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history but has won five games this season by seven points or fewer. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Detroit at Minnesota (1, 46)
Detroit has won two straight and three of four since a 20-13 home loss to the Vikings on Sept. 30 left the team at 1-3 and mired in a three-game losing streak. Conversely, Minnesota has seen a promising 4-1 start unravel with three losses in its last four games, including back-to-back defeats to Tampa Bay and Seattle in which the Vikings have surrendered a combined 76 points. Minnesota's offense continues to go sideways after Christian Ponder threw for only 63 yards and an interception in last week's 30-20 loss in Seattle. The Lions have covered in four consecutive games and the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests.

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (-6, 38.5)
Seattle’s home-field advantage is keeping it in the playoff hunt in the NFC. The Seahawks are 4-0 at CenturyLink Field, including tight wins over the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. After dropping two in a row on the road, Seattle came back to “The Link” last weekend and put together its best offensive performance of the campaign in a 30-20 win over Minnesota. Hurricane Sandy has left some Jets players and staffers without power for over a week, a significant distraction for the team during its bye week. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Dallas at Philadelphia (1, 44.5)
Michael Vick was sacked seven times as the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night. Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season, completing 39 of 60 passes with four TDs and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo strained his back on the final play of a loss to the Falcons last week, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest. The Cowboys have played under the total in seven of their last eight road games.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-11, 38.5)
The Rams hope the early return of Danny Amendola (clavicle) can spark their sputtering offense. It was feared he would miss the rest of the season but the gritty receiver intends on playing Sunday. San Francisco has won four of its last five games and hasn’t allowed a touchdown in any of the victories. Defensively, the Niners are allowing just 12.9 ppg - tops in the league. San Francisco has taken seven of the last eight meetings and is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Houston at Chicago (-1, 41)
The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. The Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-11.5, 42)
Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense last week despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS during the losing skid.

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WUNDERDOG SPORTS
NFL 32-26 Last 58 picks +$740
Game: New York Jets at Seattle (Sunday 11/11 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Jets +6 (-110)

The New York Jets had a well-timed bye week after a horrid performance at home where they were beaten badly by Miami, 30-9. In that game, players were accused of giving up. Is it all over for the Jets, at 3-5 and coming off a humiliating loss? I don't think it's over quite yet. The Jets are talking like a playoffs team and even at 3-5, they are still just two games out of the last wildcard spot. Coach Ryan hinted at some changes to exploit the Seahawks, but wouldn't fully disclose just what. One change needs to be with QB Mark Sanchez's issues with ball security as he has six fumbles and five INTs over the last five games. Let's not forget that the Jets went to Foxboro and almost beat the Patriots. So, they certainly are capable of winning here or at least playing competitive. The biggest problem for Seattle has been finding offense and the end-zone. Through nine games the Seahawks have scored 16 points or less in five of them. Those are tough numbers if you're backing nearly a TD
favorite. Russell Wilson is still a rookie and has played erratically, throwing eight INTs on the season. Rex Ryan is the master of disguise, and having two weeks to scheme the defense. I think the Jets hang around in this one.

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Kevin
NFLBettingPicks

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = RAVENS -1 and TEXANS +7.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)


--Notes: I bet this at Bookmaker.eu (you click on the dropdown menu that says "straight" and select teaser). At 5dimes.eu teasers can be found along the left hand side and because of how 5dimes has this shaded you will need to most likely click 7 point teaser "ties win" and not "ties reduce". If you don't understand just email me with any questions.


Again both legs of this teaser follow the basic strategy of crossing over the biggest key numbers in the NFL - 3 and 7. The first leg is Ravens -1 who host the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders enter the game 3-5, and just 1-3 on the road. Road losses have come against Miami, Denver, and Atlanta (by an average of 18.7 points) and their lone road win was against Kansas City. Last week the Raiders hosted the Buccaneers and lost 42-32 as 1 point favorites. Baltimore comes into this one with a 6-2 record and a perfect 4-0 home record. They've won 5 of their last 6 games, with wins over New England, Cleveland twice, Kansas City and Dallas. Their lone loss over that span was a 43-13 loss in Houston. Baltimore has won 15 straight home games. Baltimore's defense is facing injuries and it is showing this year as they rank 26th overall defensively. The Raiders are 21st defensively but are giving up 4.6 more points against per game than the Ravens. Oakland's offensive is ranked better overall, but again the Ravens out score Oakland by over 3 points per game. Note that the Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Baltimore. Baltimore is the much better team and they are very good at home. I expect Baltimore to win and cover the 7 point spread (and cover this leg of the teaser for us). The next leg of the teaser is Houston +7.5 who is playing in a Prime Time showdown Sunday night with the Bears. This will be a battle of the 7-1 teams, as the Texans enter Sunday's game perfect on the road at 3-0 with their only loss coming against Green Bay at home. They've won two straight against Buffalo and Baltimore covering the spread in both contests. On the season they are 6-2 ATS. The Texans should be well rested as they haven't been on the road in over a month. Chicago is 4-0 at home, with their lone loss also coming against the Packers in Green Bay. Chicago is coming off a big defensive effort that allowed them to beat Tennessee 51-20 last week easily cover the 4.5 point spread. The Bears are 5-3 ATS this year, but they've failed to cover the spread in their last two home games winning by 1 point and 6 points. The Texans offense is ranked 12th overall while the Bears are 25th, but the Bears are just 0.1 ppg behind. Both teams have great defenses, with Houston ranking 3rd and Chicago 6th, but the Bears being 2nd in papg and the Texans 3.1 points behind in 4th. Take note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Given the very good defenses both teams have I expect this to be a tight game. I give the QB edge to Houston, and I think we have a lot of value with them in a teaser.


2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = SAINTS +8.5 and COWBOYS +7 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)


--Notes: Same as above. I bet it at Bookmaker (a solid sportsbook that accepts all countries). In case you were wondering if we hit the Saints leg of the teaser but the Cowboys leg was a "push" the bet would be cancelled and money returned.


First of all I should mention that you probably won't find Cowboys +7 on a 6 point teaser any more as the line has moved to Dallas -1.5 from +1 in most places. I would recommend making this a no bet if you didn't get that number, or you have the option of teasing Saints with one of the two teams in the teaser above. Secondly although this doesn't completely cross the key number of 7, we still have value as the line has shifted with the sharp money coming in on the Cowboys. Lets take a look at why I like Dallas here in this teaser. Both teams enter the game 3-5, with the Cowboys being 2-3 on the road and the Eagles 2-2 at home. Dallas isn't playing great football right now losing 4 of their last 5, but their losses have come against some good football teams in Atlanta, New York Giants, Chicago, and Tampa Bay. With that said the Eagles have downright been awful lately, losing 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Losses have come against New Orleans, Atlanta, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Arizona, while their win came at home vs the Giants. The Eagles are just 1-6-1 ATS this season. Philadelphia's 3 victories have come by a combined 4 points. Dallas QB Tony Romo isn't having the best season ranked 22nd in QB Rating, but Michael Vick is worse at 28th with a 77.7 QB Rating. He has been sacked 27 times, including 7 this past Monday where their offensive line looked awful. Dallas isn't a team I want to bet on right now against the spread, but I will happily take them getting 7 points in a teaser against the Eagles who have a lot of problems right now. The next leg is backing the Saints +8.5 as they host the 8-0 Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a 19-13 home win against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Although any win is a good win in the NFL, it is worth noting that the only team above .500 the Falcons have beat was Denver at home by 6 points. Now Saints aren't above .500 either, but they are on their way up winning 3 of their last 4 games. Wins have come against San Diego, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia (covering the spread in all three) with the loss coming @Denver. Despite an improvement last week, the Saints defense is still ranking 32nd in the NFL. But with that said, the Saints offense is ranked 5th and they are 8th in PPG just behind the Falcons. We also know that Brees is tough to beat at home. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. When these two teams meet the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Being a divisional game with the Saints at home and playing better right now I like this to be a tight game, and the Saints at least staying within a touchdown.


2 UNIT = Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens - RAVENS -7 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)


This write up can be found in the first teaser. Baltimore should have no problems with Oakland this Sunday. The line has moved off 7, which is a key number, and if I didn't get it at 7 I probably wouldn't play it or I would reduce it to 1 unit with where it is right now (you can wait until closer to Sunday and see if it gets back to 7 too).


2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers - BRONCOS -3.5 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.04 units to win 2.00 units)


Denver heads to Carolina with a 5-3 record and 2-2 road record. The Panthers are 2-6 and just 1-3 at home. Peyton Manning has led the Broncos to 3 straight victories and they have won 4 of their last 5. Their lone loss over that span came in New England. After a 1-2 start to the season the Broncos offense seems to be clicking, and they've scored 31+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Denver has also scored 21+ points in all 8 of their games this season. On the other hand the Panthers have scored 21+ points just 4 times this year. They are coming off a 21-13 win in Washington, but had lost 5 straight before then. The Panthers aren't far behind Denver defensively. The Broncos rank 10th in the league overall and the Panthers are sitting at 13th, and are giving up less than 1 more ppag. The big difference here comes on offense where the Broncos rank 3rd overall and the Panthers are 20th. Denver is 4th in PPG at 29.4, while the Panthers are 27th in the league with 18.6 PPG. Peyton Manning looks like he's had no time off, leading the league with a 108.6 QB Rating, throwing 20 TDs and 6 INTs while completing 69.5% of his passes. Cam Newton on the other hand is having a rough season after a great rookie year. Newton is completing 57% of his passes for 1902 yards but has just 6 TDs to 8 INTs and a 77.7 QB Rating. He also hasn't been as good on the ground with 347 yards and 4 TDs but 8 fumbles (3 lost). Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record. Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. I don't see this defense being able to do much to stop Manning, and I think the Broncos win and cover on the road as they continue to roll.


2 UNIT = Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins - DOLPHINS -5.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)


Miami will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Tennessee is just 3-6 this year and 1-3 on the road. The Dolphins are 4-4 and 2-1 at home. Tennessee has lost two straight and 4 of 6, including their 51-20 loss at home on Sunday against the Bears. In their three victories they've scored 26+ points, but in their 6 losses they've scored 20 or fewer points in all games and 14 or fewer points in 5 of the 6. That isn't good news for them heading into Miami facing a tough defense. The Dolphins dropped a 23-20 game on Sunday in Indianapolis, but had won three straight before that. The Dolphins rank 24th in the league overall defensively, but are 6th in papg at just 18.6. The Titans on the other hand are 30th overall and last at 32nd in papg at 34.2. They give up 141 yards against per game on the ground (30th) and that should be troubles going against a good running team in the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill has shown improvement completing 22 of 38 last week for 290 yards and a TD. Take note that the Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents. The Titans are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs AFC opponents, and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Losing 5 of their 6 games by 21+ points I don't see the Titans keeping this one close against a well balanced Dolphins team. I expect the Dolphins to win by a touchdown or more on Sunday - take them to cover.


Let's keep it going,
Kevin
NFLBettingPicks

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Trace Adams


1500♦
Raise the Bar
Winner #5 in a Row


Denver Broncos -4.5

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, November 11th

2012 National Football League Super Total of the Year!!!!!
San Diego/Tampa Bay under 47 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Texans @ Bears Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
NY Giants/Cincinnati under 49
Denver/Carolina over 47
Tennessee/Miami under 45
Detroit/Minnesota under 46

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Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, November 11th

2012 Pro Football on NBC Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Houston/Chicago over 39 1/2

Late NFL Best Bets
NY Jets/Seattle under 38 1/2
Dallas/Philadelphia under 44
St Louis/San Francisco over 38 1/2

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From Platinum Plays. PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK
the Denver Broncos -4 over
the Carolina Panthers

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From Platinum Plays. 500K NBC Lock/Month
the Chicago Bears -1½ over
the Houston Texans
Best Bets
the Houston/Chicago Game OVER
the Total Of 39½ Points
the Dallas Cowboys -2 over
the Philadelphia Eagles
the San Francisco 49ers -12½ over
the St Louis Rams
the Dallas/Philadelphia Game UNDER
the Total Of 44½ Points

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From Platinum Plays.

500K NFL Upset/Year the New Orleans Saints +2½ over the Atlanta Falcons Best Bets the NY Giants -3½ over the Cincinnati Bengals the Baltimore Ravens -7½ over the Oakland Raiders the Tennessee/Miami Game UNDER the Total Of 45 Points the Buffalo/New England Game UNDER the Total Of 53 Points

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From Platinum Plays. PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK
the Seattle Seahawks -6 over
the NY Jets

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks 11/11

1 PM EST
219. San Diego Chargers +3*

4:25 EST
St. Louis Rams +13*

Rest of Games
217. New York Giants -4
221. Denver Broncos -4
223. Tennessee Titans +6
231. New York Jets +6

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Falcons at Saints: What Bettors Need to Know

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (1, 53.5)

The first half of the season has proven to represent a changing of the guard in the NFC South, but the surging New Orleans Saints will try to say something about that when they host the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons - the last remaining unbeaten team in the league - have solidified their status as the division front-runner, but the Saints are trying to work their way back into the playoff picture. New Orleans has won three of its past four games after starting the season with four straight losses.

Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history and is just the 15th team to start 8-0 since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. The Saints have won 10 of the past 12 meetings against the Falcons, which is a big reason they've won the NFC South in two of the past three seasons and three of the past six. That includes a 45-16 blowout in the most recent contest on Dec. 26, 2011, in New Orleans, a game in which Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's single-season passing mark.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U 53.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-0): The Falcons have won five games this season by seven points or less, and they are 27-10 in games decided by one score during coach Mike Smith's tenure. The offense had its lowest-scoring output of the season in last week's 19-13 home win against Dallas, and Atlanta might need more with the defense getting a stern test from the Saints, especially with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon missing a second consecutive game with a sprained right ankle.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-5): New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game. The porous pass defense will have its hands full against quarterback Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. The Saints' offense has not been as prolific as in past years, and running back Darren Sproles is out at least four weeks after hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in their last four meetings in New Orleans.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 9-1 in Saints’ last 10 vs. NFC foes.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Atlanta is 29-0 when QB Matt Ryan starts and has a rating of 100 or higher, and the team is 15-0 when he has at least three touchdown passes.

2. Brees, who has a passing touchdown in an NFL-record 51 consecutive games, has passed for 300 yards in eight of 12 meetings vs. Atlanta since joining the
Saints.

3. Gonzalez needs one touchdown reception to become the first tight end and eighth player in history with 100.