11-11-12

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

3-Unit Play. Take #237 Houston (+1) over Chicago (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
I think that this is a bad matchup for Chicago, and I think that the Bears are a little overvalued.The Bears have been getting love from the mainstream media all week long and people are talking about them as one of the best teams in football. They are excellent. But they are not the best team in football. They have played a cupcake schedule to this point and they have been taking advantage of loser opponents and loser quarterbacks that constantly turn the ball over. But how are they going to hold up against a very good Texans team that probably won't turn the ball over? Houston will be able to run the ball down Chicago's throat in the red zone. And if the Bears aren't generating offense with their defense I'm not sure how they are going to crack the Houston front seven, which should be able to generate some turnovers of their own against Chicago's shaky offensive line. Houston has some top end talent on offense that can execute on third downs and in the red zone, and I think that is going to make the difference. The red flag here is the fact that the Bears are not the token -3 favorite here. They are 7-1, off a blowout in which they scored over 50 points, and they are getting all kinds of mainstream love. But they aren't even a field goal favorite? That confirms everything else about how I feel about this one. Take Houston.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #227 Atlanta (-2) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
I am not necessarily sure why everyone is so down on the Falcons. All that they have done is win this year, and they have looked tough and impressive doing it. Now they are short favorites on the road against a weak Saints team. I watched New Orleans win on Monday Night Football and I was not at all impressed. Philadelphia, which is in shambles, choked that game away and the Saints were actually outgained. The Saints defense is still a train wreck and they cannot stop anyone, ever, at any time. And that is a problem. The last two times that these two heated rivals played the Saints won 45-16 the day after Christmas. Atlanta was furious that the Saints ran up the score, as they were still throwing late in the fourth quarter so Drew Brees could make a run at the passing record. I think the Falcons have that as extra motivation and I just think that they are clearly the other team. I think that this one is either a Falcons blowout or it is one of those games where whoever has the ball last wins by a FG. And if that is the case we still don't have to cover the key number of 3.0.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #229 Detroit (-2) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
I hate - and I mean I HATE - having to trust the Lions. They are a lazy, undisciplined team that is definitely shaky on the road. But they are also starting to play better. And they have revenge over the Vikings for a home loss last month in a game that the Vikings probably shouldn't have won. Minnesota scored not one, but TWO special teams TDs and were outgained by over 110 yards in that game. The Vikings are not playing nearly as well at this point, having lost three of four, and their only wins in the last six weeks have come over pathetic Tennessee and Arizona. Detroit is improving. They are motivated and they want to get back into the NFC North race. I think they are going to be able to do that with a win here. The Vikings defense has come off the rails and the odds are strong that Percy Harvin will not play for the home team. If that is the case I do not think that Adrian Peterson is going to be enough offense for Minnesota to hold off the Lions.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #232 Seattle (-6) over N.Y. Jets (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
Normally this would be a lot of points for Russell Wilson to lay. But the problem is with the Jets. First of all, the Jets suck. They are not a good team. They are a 6-10 or 7-9 team and they are losers. Seattle is one of the best home teams in the NFL and they already have home wins over teams like Dallas, New England, Green Bay and Minnesota. I think their defense is going to smother Mark Sanchez and the Jets and I don't see New York manufacturing more than 14-17 points. Also, yes the Jets are coming off a bye week. But it wasn't really a normal bye week. The hurricane and ensuing weather decimated New Jersey and I'm sure that dominated the Jets' off week. They spent their time trying to solve real-world problems, not planning for the Seahawks. And now they have to leave their families and issues and fly all the way across the country to play in one of the toughest environments in the league. That's just a tough situation.

2-Unit Play. Take #220 Tampa Bay (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
The Chargers are awful. They are just awful. And they have to fly all the way across the country for the dreaded 1 p.m. start for a West Coast team. The Chargers are coming off a misleading win over Kansas City in a game that the Chiefs choked their way and San Diego may be looking ahead to a bigger revenge game with Denver next week. Tampa Bay just keeps improving. Their yards per point continue to go up and up, and this team has played well against a pretty tough schedule. Further, the NFC has gone 14-7 ATS in the last 21 games against the AFC. Finally, wideout Vincent Jackson should have a big game against his old team and I think that the Bucs stay hot.

1-Unit Play. Take #224 Miami (-6) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 47.5 Denver at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)

1.5-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #226 Baltimore (-1) over Oakland (1 p.m.) AND Take #240 Pittsburgh (-5.5) over Kansas City (8:40 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

JASON SHARPE

NFL Sunday November 11th 2012-

5 Unit Play Take #218 Cincinnati +4 over New York Giants (1:00pm est):
Some games throughout an NFL season can be tough spots for a team and this has the look of one right here for the New York Giants in this one. The Giants come in off a very hard fought game against the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. Typically we have seen that a team doesn't play well the game following playing Pittsburgh the last few years in the NFL. This game also follows not only the Steelers game but the Giants also played two divisional contests the two weeks previous to that game against Pittsburgh. Then after this contest the Giants get their bye week, which has been a point spread killer for teams the week before their 'off week' in the NFL this season. Also the Giants have been terrible on defense this year, allowing over 6.0 yards per play, which is towards the very bottom of the league this season.

The Cincinnati Bengals have dropped four straight games coming into this one. They were just beat last Sunday against one of the top teams in the NFL, the Denver Broncos. The week before that loss was another 'close but no cigar' defeat to another tough team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Keep in mind this a team that did make the playoffs last season and have their core group back from that team this season.
Play Cincinnati here in this contest.

3 Unit Play Take #233 Dallas -1.5 over Philadelphia (4:25pm est):
Both teams have been massive underachievers of late but it's Philadelphia who looks the team in the most trouble right now. The Eagles look to have not only quit on head coach Andy Reid after another dismal season of failed expectations but there is also growing concern with the poor play of once team leader and star player Michael Vick this season. Last Monday night's loss once again showed an Eagles team again who can do so much right between the 20's or throughout most of the game but then they watch it all fall apart the other times in the game.

The Dallas Cowboys haven't been much better of late with back to back losses and four in their last five games but keep in mind they were beat against the Bears, at Baltimore and Atlanta and home versus the Giants, all of whom look like four strong playoff contenders at this time. Dallas seems to do just enough to lose games as their last three defeats have by a combined 13 points overall.

In what is a must win for both team look for the team with the more heart (which is pretty much anyone other than Philadelphia these days) to take care of business in this game. Take Dallas here in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #222 Carolina +4 over Denver (1:00pm est):
Looks like the classic letdown spot here for a Denver team that has become an overrated commodity at this time. The Broncos are still a very strong team but some of the shine has come off them the last few weeks despite the fact they have won a lot of their games. Looking at who they have beat (Cincy, NO, SD and Oakland) of late now shows a team who has maybe took more advantage of a soft schedule than anything else. When faced with the likes of New England, Houston and Atlanta, the Broncos are 0-3 this season and also 0-3 against the spread against them as well.

The Carolina Panthers made some major changes mid-season and now look to be playing their best football of the year because of it. Carolina is coming off a nice upset road win last week over what is a decent Washington team and the week before that the Panthers had the Bears on the ropes but somehow blew that game by a single point. Even when you look at some of their earlier season losses you come away impressed with them as the Panthers lost by just 6 at TB, by 2 at Atlanta, by 4 to Seattle and by 5 to Dallas, all of which are decent teams and some are much better teams than we originally thought they would be before the season also. Looking at the Panthers overall numbers also shows a team with some decent all around stats this season as well.
Look for the Panthers to be pumped up for this contest. Play Carolina here.

3 Unit Play Take#229 Detroit -2 over Minnesota (1:00pm est):
Two teams going in opposite directions here in this one and both are now starting to fit in comfortably with where we thought they would be earlier in the season. The Detroit Lions have not only won two straight games but looked to have easily played their best game of the season last weekend. This is a talented team in key spots and one who will be looking for some revenge here in this contest for what was a huge loss earlier in the year at home to these Vikings and in a game that the Lions easily should have won if not for some key special team's breakdowns. They outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards in the contest which is a huge differential for a losing team in the NFL.

Minnesota has now dropped three of their last four games coming into this one and if not for some lucky breaks in their win over Arizona a few weeks back, the Vikings would probably be coming into this game with a huge losing streak. The Vikings losses were disturbing defeats also because they came against young up and coming teams like themselves meaning Minnesota may not yet be in this category quite yet. Even when you look back at their wins now this season, those also don't look nearly as strong as they did just a few weeks ago as one win was over what is looking like a hapless Arizona team, two more came against the dog's of the AFC and were at home (Jacksonville and Tennessee) and then the special team's winner they pulled off at Detroit. It seems the Vikings may be riding the coattails of their one lone big win over San Francisco this season.
In what is a big game for the Lions look for them to step things up here and continue their strong play of late. Play Detroit here.

3 Unit Play Take #237 Houston +1 over Chicago (8:20pm est):
Just not seeing it with the 7-1 Chicago Bears that others are seeing as Chicago looks more like a team that has caught some nice breaks this season more than anything else. In their seven wins this season so far the only win over a team with an above .500 record is a fraud above .500 team, the Indianapolis Colts. The Bears failed miserably in their big game against the Packers earlier on this season. Chicago also was lucky to beat the Panthers a few weeks back and even their Monday night win over Detroit the week before that was nothing special as the Bears benefitted more from turnovers and Lions red zone mistakes than anything else.

Houston looks to have taken that next step this season so far as the Texans are a solid team again on both sides of the football. They have a strong 20 point opening day win over what now looks to be a much better Miami team than most folks though at the time. The Texans also hammered the Ravens two weeks ago by 30 points and have a very nice road win at Denver on their resume as well. The Texans have heard the whispers all season long about how much better the NFC is this year than the AFC and their only loss was an ugly one to NFC Green Bay. The Texans would love nothing more than to show the world their for real and they will have this shot here on a national TV game.
Take Houston in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

GOODFELLA 3* NFC GOM--lions

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NFL Nov 11 '12
8:30p Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears
Take: Houston Texans +1½-105 in 18h
20* Texans/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5

The Houston Texans are the superior team in this game against Chicago and it will show on the field Sunday Night. The Texans were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and they have not disappointed. I did expect the Bears to make the playoffs, but not to be off to this good of a start.

Chicago's 7-1 start is a bit fluky given all of the defensive touchdowns they have come up with. They can't possibly keep this pace up on defense, and they have been forcing turnovers against a pretty soft schedule in the first half. Six of the eight teams the Bears have faced are .500 or worse on the season, and five of those teams have losing records.

Houston won't be giving the Bears any gifts like these other teams have. It has only turned the ball over six times all season. This is the most complete team in the league as it ranks in the Top 10 of turnover differential, yards per play differential, and sack percentage. There are just no weaknesses on their entire team.

Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that isn't nearly explosive as it was supposed to be coming into the season. It ranks just 25th in total offense (324.4 yards/game), including 27th in passing offense (196.8 yards/game). Houston ranks 12th in total offense (371.7 yards/game) and 3rd in total defense (286.1 yards/game).

The Texans are a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 15.4 points/game in this spot. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 12.2 points/game in this situation.

Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 November games. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Texans. Bet Houston Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NFL Nov 11 '12
1:00p Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Take: Detroit Lions -1-120 in 11h
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Lions -1

The Detroit Lions are rolling right now, playing their best football of the season coming into this one. They have won back-to-back games over the Seahawks and Jaguars while scoring a combined 59 points in the process. Now, Detroit wants revenge from a 13-20 loss to Minnesota earlier this season.

That loss was a complete fluke as the Lions dominated the game, but the special teams lost it for them. They outgained the Vikings 341-227 for the game, but gave up two special teams touchdowns. One came on a 100-yard kickoff return by Percy Harvin, who is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. He is the Vikings best weapon and will certainly be missed.

I've been saying all year that Detroit is a better team than its record indicates, and it's certainly starting to show. The Lions rank 2nd in the league in total offense (410.9 yards/game) and 7th in total defense (320.6 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 90.3 yards/game this season. Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season despite its 5-4 record.

The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Detroit is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a ATS win. The Lions are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. I'll back the better team playing the better football right now against a Minnesota team likely playing without arguably its best player. Take the Lions Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Medal Club NFL Selections 11/11/2012
#215 Buffalo +13
#218 Cincinnati +4
#222 Carolina +4
#230 Minnesota +3
#238 Chicago -1

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

50 det
15 giants
10 under 39 jets/sea
10 ravens.

[Mr. IWS]

Rivers 750,000 - Seahawks

A-Redd - Bucs, Panthers, Jets (30 trifecta)

DeMarco 10 dimer - Falcons (buy half pt)

Budin 50 dimer - Bucs (buy half pt)

Benton 75 dimer - Giants

Davis 75 dimer - Bucs (buy half pt)

O'Brien 60 dimer - 49ers

[Mr. IWS]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = DALLAS
3* = DETROIT
2* = N.Y. JETS
2* = HOUSTON
2* = "OVER" on Falcons-Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Point Train's NFL Sunday Best Bet

7-Unit - #236 San Francisco (-11) over St. Louis – 3:25 PM CST

The Niners have allowed just 38 total points in the last five games – and 26 of those points were allowed in one game. This defense is 2nd in yards allowed per game and 1st in points allowed per game. They are off of a bye, rested, healthy, and playing against an offense that has scored just 13.8 points per game over the last six weeks. The Rams are 28th in both total offense and points per game and we don’t expect this one to stay close. Take the Niners in a blowout.


Nelly's Football - Sunday NFL 3* Total Top Play - Nov. 11

3* #229/230 'UNDER 46' Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings 12:00 PM CT




BEST Football - Sunday NFL 15* Game of the Month - Nov. 11

15* #229 Detroit Lions -2 over Minnesota Vikings 12:00 PM CT



BEST Football - Sunday NFL Bonus Biggie - Nov. 11

10* #227 Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over New Orleans Saints 12:00 PM CT

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Tampa Bay Bucs -3
4* Bears/Texans Under 41.5
3* St Louis Rams +11.5
3* Orlando Magic +8
3* Manhattan +18.5

[Mr. IWS]

EZWINNERS

5* Houston Texans +1.5

2* San Diego Chargers +3

2* Dallas Cowboys -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Joe Nelson's

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Detroit at Minnesota Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Detroit (-2 -105) Line Source: CarbonSports Posted on: November 9, 2012 @ 2:10:07 PM EST Minnesota’s win over the Lions in week 4 put the Vikings at 3-1 and looking like a serious threat in the NFC. It was a fluky win for the Vikings however as the opening kickoff was returned for a touchdown by Percy Harvin and then Minnesota put the game away with a punt return touchdown in the 3rd quarter. Despite those obstacles the Lions were in position to tie the game late in a 20-13 loss in which they had 114 more yards. The Vikings have gone a on a free fall with losses in three of the last four games and catching breaks in the one win over Arizona, a game they were out-gained by 147 yards in. Christian Ponder has taken a big step back after an encouraging first month with pathetic production while throwing an interception in five straight games and taking 14 sacks in the last three games. Harvin is unlikely to play this week for the Vikings and the lone deep threat on the roster Jerome Simpson has been playing hurt. Tight End Kyle Rudolph has disappeared in recent weeks leaving Adrian Peterson as the only viable threat on the offense. Detroit had an ugly start to the season but now at 4-4 this is a team with some momentum. Despite the mediocre record the Lions have out-gained foes in seven of eight games this season and the penalties, turnovers, and special team issues that plagued the team in the first few weeks appear to be fading. Detroit has been a much better defensive team that anyone realizes, allowing just 320 yards per game with great numbers against the run, as opponents are rushing for just 106 yards per game. Detroit has allowed just 18.8 points per game in the last five contests after giving up 44 against Tennessee and in this revenge spot the Lions will be ready to play as Minnesota looks to just get to next week’s bye week. Teams heading into the bye week have done very poorly ATS this season and this is a sinking Vikings team that is just 5-10-2 ATS in the last 17 home games.

Matchup: N.Y. Jets at Seattle Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun) Play: N.Y. Jets (+6.5 -110) Line Source: Coasts Posted on: November 9, 2012 @ 2:10:07 PM EST Seattle owns the best home field edge in the league and the numbers are impressive at home. This is a team that is playing close games just about every week however as the underdog has covered in seven of nine Seahawks games this season and three of Seattle’s wins have come by four or fewer points. Seattle probably deserved to lose in two of its home games and this is a team that has been out-gained in three of the last four games. The Jets have not been playing well but they did out-gain each of the last three opponents despite going 1-2 in those games. They took New England to overtime in the last road game and while they lost badly in the last game before the bye week, the Jets out-gained Miami by 127 yards and suffered some big plays against them in the letdown spot. Off the bye week this should be a highly motivated 3-5 team that still has eyes on the playoffs in a watered down AFC. New York’s offense has taken a lot of heat but the numbers for the Jets in terms of yardage and scoring are superior to the Seahawks on offense. The defense has had a couple of bad games they have also played five teams that would be in the playoff picture right now and the blowout loss to San Francisco accounts for a great deal of the disparity. Both of the two ugly losses for the Jets this season came off overtime division games and this is a team that has played well in big games, hanging with Houston and New England this season. Seattle’s defense has been out-gained on the ground three of the last four weeks and last week a struggling Vikings team had huge rushing numbers against the Seahawks in Seattle. Seattle is now reaching overvaluation after a win last week by 10 points, but that was a game that was very close most of the way, as have been most Seattle games. New York will have a great plan on offense off the bye week and while Rex Ryan has had an inconsistent track record of late he is capable of giving young quarterbacks problems and Russell Wilson’s great home numbers have been a bit fluky this season.

Member Plays

Matchup: Oakland at Baltimore Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Oakland (+8 -110) Line Source: Peppermill Posted on: November 9, 2012 @ 2:10:07 PM EST The Ravens are a very suspect 6-2 team as they have gone just 1-5 ATS in the last six games and easily could have lost last week despite covering. Baltimore has been out-gained in four consecutive games and this could be a flat spot after back-to-back big road games and facing Pittsburgh for the first time next week. Baltimore has been out-rushed in five of eight games this season despite featuring Ray Rice in the backfield and Joe Flacco continues to look like a very mediocre quarterback. The Raiders are a shaky 3-5 as two wins came against Jacksonville and Kansas City but this team did beat Pittsburgh and gave Atlanta and Tampa Bay very tough games in recent weeks. The Raiders lost Darren McFadden last week but this is a team that has often abandoned the running game and relied on Carson Palmer in the air. Oakland is passing for 281 yards per game this season and they will go against a Baltimore defense with marginal numbers, allowing 386 yards per game. Going back the last decade Baltimore has been an outstanding home favorite but Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in the last seven instances including winning but failing to cover in the last three home games. Oakland meanwhile is 11-6 ATS in the last 17 games as an underdog of seven or more and statistically Oakland has been better yardage numbers on both sides of the ball in this match-up.

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Detroit at Minnesota Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Under (46.5 -110) Line Source: William Hill Posted on: November 9, 2012 @ 2:10:07 PM EST Both teams had trouble moving the ball in the first meeting between these teams as Minnesota won in Detroit 20-13. The Lions posted 341 yards in the game but a lot of that yardage came late as the Detroit attempted to dig out of a deficit. The Vikings scored 20 points but both touchdowns came on special teams. After allowing 44 points in an overtime loss against Tennessee and starting the season 1-3 the Lions have shown great improvement on defense, allowing less than 19 points per game on average. Detroit has posted 59 points in the last two weeks as it appears that the offense is getting on track but Detroit has 24 points in the 4th quarter the last two weeks and last week there was some fluky scoring early in the game off turnovers and keep in mind the Lions were going against an awful Jacksonville team that has not been able to sustain drives. Detroit is scoring 24 points per game this season but they will face a still solid Minnesota defense that is allowing just 334 yards per game with surprisingly strong numbers against the pass. The winning for the Lions has come with the absence of turnovers that were common early in the year and Detroit is running a more conservative offense finally finding a running game with Mikel Leshoure. Both teams will need to keep it on the ground in this match-up with the potential for mistakes from the quarterback position and with receiving corps that are banged up. Calvin Johnson is not 100 percent and Percy Harvin is likely to miss this game, which could take two of the biggest playmakers off the field. Secondary receivers Titus Young and Jerome Simpson are also battling nagging injuries and these offenses will be limited in the passing game. The ‘under’ has hit in seven of the last nine meetings between these teams with both exceptions coming last season when Detroit had an explosive offense with a terrible defense and the Vikings were 3-13 with great issues on defense. Minnesota is the 30th ranked passing offense in the league this season and this is a team with two return touchdowns and two defensive touchdowns making for misleading scoring numbers. While the Vikings are not able to create big plays they are able to get first downs with a solid running game and that will potentially keep them in this game and able to burn clock in a lower scoring affair. The Lions are not as productive on offense as the numbers suggest as they posted big statistics in a few early season games when they were forced to try to rally from behind after early mistakes. This game will play out on the ground with lower numbers for both sides. This is also the highest total in a Vikings game since these teams played and combined for just 33 points with two special team touchdowns. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams with a total of higher than 45.

[Mr. IWS]

5Lines

Total Line for 11/11/2012

(Won last 2 games) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Orlando Magic : o192 Cost: -110

Run Line for 11/11/2012

(Won last 3 games) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Los Angeles Clippers : -6.5 Cost: -110

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

100 unit SF 49ers