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DAVID BANKS
Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears
In what is probably the best Sunday Night Football matchup of the year so far, the top seeds in the AFC, the Houston Texans (7-1, 6-2 ATS) pay a visit to the second seeds in the NFC, the Chicago Bears (7-1, 5-3 ATS) at Soldier Field in Chicago at 8:20 ET on NBC. These are also two of the best defenses in the NFL, with the Bears ranking second in scoring defense allowing 15.0 points per game and the Texans tied for third at 17.1 points, and those two units should set the tempo for this contest,
Chicago ranks sixth in total defense 318.1 yards per game, and the truth is that the Bears have actually been better than that as a lot of the yards that they have given up have come in garbage time late as they have played with a lot of large leads. Last week was a perfect example as the stats say that they allowed 339 total yards including 159 rushing yards on only 18 carries, but those numbers all got blown out of proportion on an 80-yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson in the fourth quarter with Chicago leading the game 51-12! Also, the Chicago defense has been the primary reason why the Bears are averaging 29.5 points per game, as they are on pace to set an NFL record for return touchdowns in a season with an incredible eight in eight games, with the record for a full season being 13. The strength of the Bears is their run defense, as they rank sixth allowing 88.2 rushing yards per game, and they would probably be first or second if you take away Johnson's meaningless 80-yard scamper as only 9.9 rushing yards per game separates sixth ranked Chicago from top ranked Tampa Bay. Thus look for the Bears to at the very least contain Arian Foster here, making it much harder for a Texans' team that relies so heavily on the run to score.
Houston ranks third in total defense at a mere 286.1 yards per game, and the Texans are solidly consistent across the board, ranking second in rushing defense and fourth in passing defense. Truth be told, they probably should not have much trouble containing a Chicago offense that has a huge disconnection between its total offense and its scoring. The Bears rank third in the NFL in scoring, but as mentioned, their 29.5 points per game have been a function almost entirely of the defense. That is because Chicago ranks only 25th in total offense at a quite pedestrian 324.4 yards per contest. Furthermore, the Texans do not turn the ball over much at all, with a grand total of six turnovers through eight games, and that severely lessens the chances of the Bears continuing their amazing string of return touchdowns.
This is only the second time this season that the Texans have playing on national television, and as fate would have it, their only loss this year came the first time they had a chance to showcase their skills vs. the Green Bay Packers, also on a Sunday night. Houston has regrouped nicely in its two games since that loss though, with the defense allowing a total of 22 points in two wins. The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight Houston games following a straight up win, as well as 9-1 in the last 10 Chicago games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in the previous game.
Pick: OVER 38.5Comment
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Champ Selections picks for today:
11* Star pick: Detroit Lions
6* Star pick: New York Giants
3* Star pick: Dallas Cowboys
2* Star pick: Oakland Raiders
2* Star pick: Tennessee Titans
2* Star pick: New York Jets
1* Star pick: Houston Texans
1* Star pick: Denver Broncos
1* Star pick: New Orleans SaintsComment
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OC Dooley:
2 UNIT” NFL PERCENTAGE UNDERDOG (Bengals +4 at home versus Giants in a 1:00 eastern kickoff): Many reading this analysis are most likely aware that Giants quarterback Eli Manning has the highest career NFL win percentage in the month of October, but the calendar has since turned and subsequently a four-game New York winning streak went by the boards last Sunday as they coughed up a double-digit advantage in the final quarter. What was most disturbing to Giants backers last Sunday was the team amassed only 182 total yards of offense as an extended slump by Manning continued. I am fully aware of the recent troubles of today’s host side but Cincinnati has been COMPETITIVE having held the lead or been tied in the final quarter in 3 of the most recent 4 defeats. The schedule is about to get difficult for the Bengals who are wrapping up a lengthy 3-game homestand this afternoon and the team’s head coach has publicly CHALLENGED quarterback Andy Dalton to be more of a leader. In the past two games Dalton has been solid (5 touchdown passes versus just 1 interception) and one of his favorite targets A.J. Green is tied for most touchdown catches (15) the past two campaigns in the AFC. Even though both of these teams rarely meet the HOME team has WON EIGHT IN A ROW. The following may come as a shock but in the past twenty years when facing an opponent from the NFC East division, Cincinnati has made investors (15-5 ATS) a lot of moneyComment
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