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Dr M's 2012 OU PLAY OF THE YEAR!! - Dr. Ed Meyer
Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL Total Sun, 11/18/12 - 4:25 PM
triple-dime bet 423 IND / 424 NEP Over 53.5 5dimes
Analysis:
2012 TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
The computer outputs thousands of trends for us every week. Here one that we have never used, but it keeps winning. The league is now 18-0 OU in November the week after beating the Jaguars. The SDQL text is:
month=11 and p:W and po:team=Jaguars and NB and 20011125<=date
Indianapolis qualifies for this unusual system. Of course, this is not the reason we have this one going over.
Andrew Luck is not just a good quarterback, he is a great leader as well. It is clear that the Colts have confidence in him and will listen attentively when he speaks. He commands respect from his teammates and here is a great opportunity to get it from the rest of the league.
The Patriots have won with offense this season. They are 4-0 straight up when they score more than thirty points and we think they’ll easily get to this number here.
New England is 13-0 OU the week after a win in which they allowed more than 295 yards passing, including 3-0 OU this season. The SDQL is:
team=Patriots and po:PY>295 and p:W and NB and 20071203<=date
Also, the Pats are 16-0 OU off a game in which they scored 35-plus points and allowed at least 20 points, as can be seen with this SDQL text.
35<=p:points and 20<=po:points and team=Patriots and season>=2005
Finally, the Patriots are playing their second straight home game and play on the road vs divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. This has been a HUGE over spot, as TD-plus home favorites in November are 30-0 OU when they play on the road in each of their next two games and they are facing a team that has attempted at least 30.5 passes per game season-to-date. Check it out with this SDQL text:
month=11 and H and line<=-7 and tn:A and tnn:A and oA(passes)>30.5 and 20031120<=date
The reasoning for this one seems straightforward. November is when the contenders emerge. By December, many of the races are all but over. When a team is a big home favorite, they don’t need to have both the offense and the defense playing at 110%. They have the luxury of putting the onus of the victory on the offense and saving the defense for the upcoming road games. So, their goal is to outscore rather than out defend their opponent. The Ravens were in just this spot last week when they put up 55 on the Raiders, allowing their defense to “go through the motions” and save their fierce intensity level for their upcoming road games. When they get an opponent that passes the ball frequently, these games go flying over the posted number – thirty straight since Thanksgiving 2003.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills put up 31 points in New England, the Andrew Luck and the Colts should be good for at least this amount. The weather looks perfect for football in Foxboro on Sunday. Take these two OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 41 Indianapolis 38
Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL Total Sun, 11/18/12 - 4:25 PM
triple-dime bet 423 IND / 424 NEP Over 53.5 5dimes
Analysis:
2012 TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
The computer outputs thousands of trends for us every week. Here one that we have never used, but it keeps winning. The league is now 18-0 OU in November the week after beating the Jaguars. The SDQL text is:
month=11 and p:W and po:team=Jaguars and NB and 20011125<=date
Indianapolis qualifies for this unusual system. Of course, this is not the reason we have this one going over.
Andrew Luck is not just a good quarterback, he is a great leader as well. It is clear that the Colts have confidence in him and will listen attentively when he speaks. He commands respect from his teammates and here is a great opportunity to get it from the rest of the league.
The Patriots have won with offense this season. They are 4-0 straight up when they score more than thirty points and we think they’ll easily get to this number here.
New England is 13-0 OU the week after a win in which they allowed more than 295 yards passing, including 3-0 OU this season. The SDQL is:
team=Patriots and po:PY>295 and p:W and NB and 20071203<=date
Also, the Pats are 16-0 OU off a game in which they scored 35-plus points and allowed at least 20 points, as can be seen with this SDQL text.
35<=p:points and 20<=po:points and team=Patriots and season>=2005
Finally, the Patriots are playing their second straight home game and play on the road vs divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. This has been a HUGE over spot, as TD-plus home favorites in November are 30-0 OU when they play on the road in each of their next two games and they are facing a team that has attempted at least 30.5 passes per game season-to-date. Check it out with this SDQL text:
month=11 and H and line<=-7 and tn:A and tnn:A and oA(passes)>30.5 and 20031120<=date
The reasoning for this one seems straightforward. November is when the contenders emerge. By December, many of the races are all but over. When a team is a big home favorite, they don’t need to have both the offense and the defense playing at 110%. They have the luxury of putting the onus of the victory on the offense and saving the defense for the upcoming road games. So, their goal is to outscore rather than out defend their opponent. The Ravens were in just this spot last week when they put up 55 on the Raiders, allowing their defense to “go through the motions” and save their fierce intensity level for their upcoming road games. When they get an opponent that passes the ball frequently, these games go flying over the posted number – thirty straight since Thanksgiving 2003.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills put up 31 points in New England, the Andrew Luck and the Colts should be good for at least this amount. The weather looks perfect for football in Foxboro on Sunday. Take these two OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 41 Indianapolis 38
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