11-18-12

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = ARIZONA
3* = GREEN BAY
3* = DENVER
2* = CAROLINA
2* = ST. LOUIS

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CAPPERS ACCESS
Lions
Chiefs
Steelers

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R&R Totals

-= TOP PLAY =-

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
Take: Total 43½ un-109

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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL

Players NBA *8* Sunday on Sacramento on 18 November
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA *8* (Regular Play) Sacramento over Brooklyn @ 6:05 ET - The Brooklyn Nets travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings on Sunday evening. Sacramento is 12-3 SU at home vs Brooklyn since 1996. Brooklyn is 25-51-2 ATS last 78 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS last 8 games when playing with 2 days rest. Brooklyn is 6-22-1 ATS last 29 road games against a team with a losing home record. Brooklyn is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 games after their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. Home team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings overall in this series. Sacramento gets the job done at home. Play Sacramento as a *8* Regular Play selection Sunday.



Players CBB *8* Sunday on St John's on 18 November
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB *8* (Regular Play) St John's over Baylor @ 6 ET - The St John's Red Storm will take on the Baylor Bears on Sunday evening in the Charleston Classic in Charleston, SC. Baylor is 3-1 SU this year while St. John's comes in with a 2-1 SU record. Baylor is 0-4 ATS last 4 games overall. Baylor is 0-4 ATS last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Baylor is 0-4 ATS last 4 games on a neutral court. Baylor is 0-4 ATS last 4 games against a non-conference opponent. St Johns is 5-1 ATS last 6 games after an ATS loss. St Johns is 4-1 ATS last 5 non-conference games. St Johns has a very good team this year and are underrated at this point in the season. Play St. John's as a *8* Regular Play selection Sunday.



Players NFL *10* Sunday on San Diego on 18 November
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL *10* (TOP Play) San Diego over Denver @ 4:25 ET - The San Diego Chargers travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. San Diego is 8-2 ATS last 10 games against AFC Opponents. San Diego is 4-1 ATS last 5 games against the AFC West. San Diego is 5-2 ATS last 7 games off a SU loss and 5-2 ATS last 7 games after an ATS loss. Denver is 16-33-2 ATS last 51 games at home. Denver is 6-14-1 ATS last 21 home games against a team with a losing road record. Denver is 1-4 ATS last 5 games after a SU win of 14 or more points. San Diego is 8-3-2 ATS last 13 meetings overall in this series. San Diego is 4-0-4 ATS last 8 meetings in Denver. The Road team is 3-0-1 ATS last 4 games overall in this series. San Diego will at least keep this one close but don't be surprised by an outright shocking win. Play San Diego as a *10* TOP Play selection Sunday.



Players NFL *8* Sunday on Philadelphia on 18 November
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL *8* (Regular Play) Philadelphia over Washington @ 1 ET - The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Washington to take on the Redskins on Sunday afternoon. Both teams come in with identical 3-6 records on the season. Michael Vick is out for this game but I think that may be a good thing at this time for the Eagles. They need somebody fresh behind center and Nick Foles will give them that. Washington defense is giving up 397.9 yards per game overall this year. Washington is allowing 27.6 points per game overall this year and 27.2 points per game at home this season. Washington is 27-47 ATS last 20 years as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Washington is 47-81 ATS last 20 years as a favorite including 1-6 ATS as a favorite the past 3 years. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS last 14 games after a bye week. Philadelphia is 25-12 ATS last 37 games after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game. Washington is 0-4 ATS last 4 games after a bye week. Road team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in this series. Play Philadelphia as a *8* Regular Play selection Sunday.

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JIMMY BOYD

-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL
4:25p Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots
Take: New England Patriots -9-110
5* AFC Game of the Year on Patriots -9
Oddsmakers are begging for bettors to take the plunge with the Colts, who are getting nearly double digits against a team with an identical record that they lost to by only 7 points last season when they were awful. You know what they say when something seems too good to be true.

The Colts are 6-3 but their wins over Minnesota, Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami and Jacksonville aren't doing anything for me. They did beat Green Bay, but let's not forget that they trailed 21-3 in that game. They were fortunate to come back to say the least.

New England's resume doesn't exactly jump off the page either, but it smoked a Tennessee team the Colts needed OT to beat, and it defeated a New York Jets squad that buried Indy. Its most impressive win is a 31-21 victory against a very good Denver team. The thing that makes that win so impressive is the fact they won by double digits despite Peyton Manning playing a flawless game. Andrew Luck won't be flawless, not on the road in his first game against a Bill Belichick defense that has forced 23 turnovers.

Under Belichick, the Pats are an impressive 53-36 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have won by an average of 10.9 points in these games.

Also, plays against underdogs or pickems that are coming off a win by 10 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that just played a game in which 50 total points or more were scored are 38-14 ATS the last 3 seasons. This system is 8-3 ATS already this season. Lay the points.

NFL
1:00p Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
Take: Arizona Cardinals +10-110
4* NFC Game of the Week on Cardinals +10
While the knee-jerk reaction might be to jump on the Falcons at home in a bounce spot against the struggling Cardinals, history says to do otherwise.

Consider that plays against home favorites that check in off a road loss and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road loss of 14 points or more are 17-5 ATS the last 5 seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

History also tells us not to doubt Whisenhunt's Cards against good teams. Under his watch, the Cardinals are an impressive 13-5 ATS versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more per game. They have lost in this situation by only 1.1 points on average.

It is also worth noting that the Cards are on a 25-9 ATS run against top-notch teams that have won better than 75.0 percent of their games. They have lost to these teams by only 2.3 points on average. Take the points.

NFL
8:30p Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Take: Pittsburgh Steelers +3½-108
3* Sunday Night Football SMASH on Steelers +3.5
The Steelers won’t have Ben Roethlisberger, but they still have arguably the best defense in the NFL to fall back on. They rank No. 1 in the league in total defense with 265.7 yards allowed per game and seventh in scoring defense with 19.7 points allowed per game.

Baltimore can typically be mentioned in the same sentence as Pittsburgh as one of the top defensive teams in the league, but not this year. The Ravens rank 27th in total defense with 390.2 yards allowed per game and 13th in scoring defense with 21.8 points allowed per contest. They have been equally bad against the run and the pass, ranking 26th in each category with 132.0 rushing yards and 258.2 passing yards allowed per game.

The Steelers have risen to the occasion time and time again when up against the league’s elite. In fact, they are on an impressive 35-15 against the spread run against teams that carry a winning percentage greater than 75.0 percent. They have won by an average score of 21.6 to 18.8 in these games.

After three consecutive covers, Pittsburgh backers took it on the chin Monday. Fortunately, I wasn't one of them as I took the Chiefs +12.5. That result, however, won't stop me from hopping on Pittsburgh here. After all, the Steelers are an impressive 8-1 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average score of 28.6 to 7.1 in this situation.

It should also be mentioned that the underdog is on a 7-3-1 against the spread run in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

NCAAB- DUKE -20.5 FLORIDA GULF (8PM)

MARC

NBA- PHILLY/CLEVELAND OVER 191 (6PM)

GOODFELLAS

NBA- BROOKLYN/SACRAMENTO OVER 192 (6PM)

NCAAB- CONNECTICUT -10 -110 QUINNIPAC (9PM)

PERRY (SOCCER)

ENGLAND PREMIER
SUNDERLAND AFC/FUHLAM UNDER 2.5 -105 (11AM)

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CHRIS JORDAN

300 Browns

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Stu Feiner

100 Dimer


NY Jets @ St. Louis 1:00 ET
Play On: NY Jets +3.5

Any road underdog in the month of November coming off a road SU loss in the month of November is 55-22 ATS since the start of the 2003 season. Any road team that's facing an opponent that's lost 3 of their last 4 games is 44-19 ATS since the start of the 2008 season.
NY Jets +3.5

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YESTERDAY WAS THE FIRST REALLY BAD DAY IN A LONG TIME
>>>>>>....>>>>>>>>>>>>....>>>>>>>>>...>>>>>>>>>> >. ...>>>>>>>>>>

Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, November 18th

2012 NFC East Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Philadelphia/Washington over 44 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Ravens @ Steelers Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
Green Bay/Detroit under 52 1/2
Tampa Bay/Carolina over 48
Cleveland/Dallas over 43 1/2
NY Jets/ST Louis under 39


Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, November 18th

2012 AFC North Primetime Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Baltimore/Pittsburgh over 40

Late NFL Best Bets
Indianapolis/New England under 54
New Orleans/Oakland under 55
San Diego/Denver under 48 1/2

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From Platinum Plays.




500K NFC East Lock/Year

the Washington Redskins -3½ over
the Philadelphia Eagles

Best Bets





the NY Jets +3½ over
the St Louis Rams

the Cleveland Browns +7½ over
the Dallas Cowboys

the Green Bay/Detroit Game OVER
the Total Of 52 Points

the Philadelphia/Washington Game UNDER
the Total Of 44½ Points
500K NBC Shocker


the Baltimore Ravens -3 over
the Pittsburgh Steelers


Best Bets





the Baltimore/Pittsburgh Game OVER
the Total Of 40½ Points

the Denver Broncos -7½ over
the San Diego Chargers

the New England Patriots -9 over
the Indianapolis Colts

the Indianapolis/New England Game OVER
the Total Of 40½ Points





PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK

the Cincinnati Bengals -3 over
the Kansas City Chiefs

the New Orleans Saints -4½ over
the Oakland Raiders

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BEN BURNS
November 18, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL Tampa Bay vs. Carolina **HURRY** Burns' *10 Divisional BEST OF BEST! SportsInteraction @ 1.5 -110 Carolina Detail

November 18, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL N.Y. Jets vs. St. Louis *EARLY* Burns' *10 Non-Conf BEST BET! *LIMITED TIME* SportsInteraction @ 3.5 -110 N.Y. Jets Detail

November 18, 2012 - 4:05 PM NFL New Orleans vs. Oakland Burns' 3-Game Ultimate SportsInteraction @ 5.5 -105 Oakland Detail

November 18, 2012 - 4:25 PM NFL San Diego vs. Denver Burns' 3-Game Ultimate bet365 @ Under 48.5 -111 Detail

November 18, 2012 - 4:25 PM NFL San Diego vs. Denver Burns' 3-Game Ultimate Pinnacle @ 8.5 -123 San Diego Detail

November 18, 2012 - 4:25 PM NFL Indianapolis vs. New England *AFTERNOON ROUT* Burns' *10 PERSONAL FAVORITE! ~ EARLY BIRD OFFER SportsInteraction @ -9 -110 New England Detail

November 18, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh Burns' *10 Sunday MAIN EVENT (89% YTD) *1/2 PRICE, IF FAST! SportsInteraction @ 4 -105 Pittsburgh Detail

November 18, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh *LIMITED TIME OFFER* Burns' *10 BLUE CHIP! *24-9 YTD bookmaker @ Over 40 -110

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Winning Points

best bet arizona

best bet St. Louis over

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NORM'S CLUBHOUSE

STRONG
St. Louis -3.5 over NY Jets

REGULAR
Cleveland +8 over Dallas
Atlanta--Arizona OVER 44
San Diego--Denver OVER 48 1/2
New England--Indy OVER 54
Green Bay--Detroit OVER 52.5
Pittsburgh +3.5 over Baltimore

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Rld investments
Car+2

SD+8

NE-9

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Accuscore -- Written by Colin Kennedy

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots

Most know this rivalry due to the history between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but the subtraction of Manning and the addition of Andrew Luck have reignited this scenario. While last year’s game was settled by just a touchdown, I expect the Patriots’ offense to once again come up strong and land a devastating blow on the upstart Colts. The projections show a 33 to 21 beatdown by the home team, but I think the Pats should better that predicted outcome.

The Patriots win 81 percent of simulations against Indy producing elite stats in both the passing and running game. The simulations show a near 60 percent chance of New England covering the -9.5 point spread. The same simulations show that it would be wise to take the under on the combined score, as there was a 52.3% chance that both teams together would be unable to surpass 54.5 total points. The Patriots win the game outright in 80.7 percent of simulations. Simply put, I strongly recommend betting for New England, all of the data points in their direction.

Many analysts thought the young Colts would struggle to win games much less reach.500. Now past the midpoint of the season however, the Colts are in prime position to make the playoffs as a wild card. Indianapolis has won its last four games, which coincidentally have been the turning point in Luck’s season. Luck has accounted for seven total touchdowns in those four victories while leading lengthy, time-consuming drives. With the exception of last Thursday’s victory at Jacksonville, the Colts have won close games including one in overtime. The arrow is definitely pointing up for this Stanford grad, and the simulations suggest that he will pass for 315 yards, 1.5 passing touchdown, 1 interception and another 20 yards rushing against the porous New England pass defense. During the games which simulated Indy victories, Luck upped his totals in every category including raising his touchdown passes average to over two.

There hasn’t been one individual player who has benefited more from the arrival of Luck than wide receiver Reggie Wayne. Wayne ranks first in the NFL in receptions (69) and has accumulated over 900 yards already, comparable stats to those when he played with Manning. While he hasn’t found the end zone as often as fantasy owners would like (just three touchdowns so far), Wayne is forecasted for an outstanding game with almost 100 yards receiving on seven receptions while scoring half of the time. Outside of Wayne, the Colts have experience a merry-go-round of options for Luck to pass to. The simulations projected three other options (Donnie Avery, TY Hilton, and Coby Fleener) to combine for almost 150 yards and a score.

Unfortunately for the Colts, they have one major flaw this season offensively: the run game. Plagued by injuries and inconsistency, Indianapolis has yet to identify a lead back to sustain a constant threat. Their two primary backs, Donald Brown and Vic Ballard, have combined for less than 800 yards on the season with just one touchdown. Neither possesses game changing qualities. Simulations gave Brown just 37 yards on 10 carries with the rookie Ballard rushing for just 24 yards on 8 attempts.

Luckily for the Colts, the weakness of the Patriots team lies in their pass defense. The Pats rank 29 in the league allowing over 285 yards a game and a 97.3 quarterback rating to opposing signal callers. Minutes before the trading deadline, the team traded for former Buccaneers 1st round pick Aqib Talib who is expected to play this weekend. Fantasy owners and Colts fans hope that Luck can improve on the 337 yards and 2 touchdowns thrown by Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick last week.

Colts general manager Ryan Grigson has rebuilt this Colts team from the ground up, and his defensive unit will have a dangerous test against Brady and New England. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats have the league’s number one unit in total yards (5th in running, 7th in passing). Brady has already passed for more than 2600 yards and again has a terrific touchdown to interception ratio of 18:3. The simulations project Brady to pass for a reasonable 285 yards and add 2.3 touchdowns with just a 50 percent chance of an interception.

Brady has done a great job of spreading the wealth this season, as receiver Wes Welker and tight end Rob Gronkowski continue to post their usual numbers. Tight end Aaron Hernandez has been hurt for the majority of this season, but the injury report lists him as questionable and likely to play this week. While many expected huge numbers from Brandon Lloyd from the outset of the season, he hasn’t produced like many fantasy owners had hoped, but he still has recorded 42 receptions and could end up with 1,000 yards receiving if he improves on his catch rate (75 targets, 2nd on the team). The projections show Gronk having his usual 60+ receiving yards and a score, while Welker and Lloyd both finish with around 60 yards receiving. Given Welker’s post Week 1 resurgence (just 14 yards) and also the Colts’ liability in pass coverage from their OLBs (former defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis), I imagine him having a much stronger output, perhaps reaching double digit receptions and clearing 100 yards receiving.

The Patriots run game has been a pleasant surprise. Stevan Ridley has quietly become one of the better backs in the league. He is currently fifth in the league in rushing at 814 yards, and has averaged over 90 yards a game. This consistency has been lacking in the Patriot offense as they became too reliant on the pass in recent seasons. Ridley’s emergence has forced teams to play fewer nickel and dime formations, thus allowing bigger throwing lanes for Brady and his receivers to get open. The Colts rank in the bottom third of the league in yards rushing, Ridley should be able to reach his projected figures of 100 yards on the ground and almost one touchdown.

While the Colts have shown heart (through the absence of head coach Chuck Pagano) and improvement, I question whether they will be able to stay in this game. Even if they lose, they will still be in playoff contention and perhaps a bad loss on the road to a perennial AFC power would do them good. I like this Colts team for the future, but this game will played this week.
Prediction: Patriots 38 Colts 21